THE San Francisco Giants Blog

Checking Out Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on January 19, 2013

I buy it every year, it’s invaluable to my fantasy player assessment. I’ll try not to bore you with the numbers since many of them are, well, *boring* and often not reliable in predicting an outcome. But more often than not the underlying numbers that Shandler uses paints a much clearer picture of a player’s past year and upcoming year than the normal baseball stats do.

For each player, in addition to the saberstats, they write a little blurb. It’s user friendly and I’ll share those blurbs with you here at the Flap for as many Giants as I can get to before the sun comes up and I need to start going to do 3-D life stuff…….

Brandon Belt: Mashed RH pitching in 2nd half though xBA remains skeptical. More power to come? .906 OPS at home so ATT is not killing him. xPA says power is still there, just waiting for more fly balls. Up: 20 hr’s

Brandon Crawford: Gainfully employed for reasons other than his bat. Still, 2nd half gives tiny, infintesimal hint of a spark. Not enough to hope for league average power, speed or contact ability. Just enough for him to get regular PT but his fantasy value rests in runs and RBI’s and nothing else.

Marco Scutaro: repeated solid contact % and H% combo, turned in a career year with stratospheric LD% (line drive) and 600+ AB’s. Without HR’s or SB’s, all the aforementioned  and continued durability are the keys to his value. Advanced age is his biggest risk.

Pablo Sandoval: Injuries and off season woes feuled a near repeat of 2010. Apart from power outage, his basic plate remain in tact but conditioning remains an ongoing issue. high risk/high reward. Is house arrest with Jenny Craig an option? Minus some poundage: UP: .310/25hr’s/90rbi’s

Angel Pagan: 2011 now looks like the outlier. Even with 600at bats he couldn’t hit double digits in HR’s. But hits line drives at an impressive rate and that sets a nice batting average floor. Add in the SB’s and runs and he should maintain nice return for $20ish with full health.

Hunter Pence: on the surface, his consistent HR totals are encouraging. But something happened in SF that sent his 2nd half into a tailspin. If 2nd half contact % and ground ball % remain his future is cloudy. Power production is tied to 600+ at bats so pray his health grade holds up.

Andres Torres: Pro: above average speed, career best bb%, got on base vs LH at .382 clip. Con: stolen base opportunity collapsed in 2nd half, .214 ba vs RH the last 2 years. Power he displayed in ’09 and ’10 is not coming back. As a BA drag with little power he needs to run to have value, but age, playing time and stolen base % not on his side.

Tim Lincecum: try not to overreact to ugly 2012. I know it’s tough. Yes, control finally blew up but damage was due to fluky hr/f spike. Still, racks up K’s and S% and hr/f will regress. But it might not be enough if his velocity is still off.

Barry Zito: ended season with 3.03 ERA, 3.2 command in Sept/Oct then strong PS. But before that it was 4 PQS DISasters in a row and a season full of lousy BPI’s. Career best splits vs LH probably won’t repeat, nor will the 15 wins. Still only 1 positive RAR since signing mega-deal. Don’t expect another miracle in 2013.

Voggy: a worthy follow up to his luck-enhanced break out in 2011. When H% and S% finally failed him in 2nd half he displayed some encouraging skill growth (see DOm and COM). While xERA still isn’t convinced there won’t likely be too much regression.

Romo: Still owns elite CMD, even after it got cut in half and he’s equally unhittable vs LH and RH. xERA tempers expectation for a repeat but even a partial repeat holds value. In a pen full of ?’s he has demonstrated he can close so now he just needs an opportunity. Up: 40 saves.

Ok, that’s it! Sun’s rising…….

About these ads

31 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. Bozo said, on January 19, 2013 at 7:15 am

    Way to get my juices flowing for ST, Flav. Thankfully the Niners are still playing.

    Not to revisit the whole HOF vote but I found this article to be very fair to Bonds. I posted this at the end of the last thread but thought some might find it interesting so “it’s like deja-vu all over again”.

    http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/barry_bonds_baseball_and_the_redemption_of_america_20130117/

    • dirtnrocksnomo said, on January 19, 2013 at 9:03 am

      Interesting read.

    • xoot said, on January 19, 2013 at 10:46 am

      That’s a good article. Thanks. There’s also a story to be told at the team level. Remember in late 96, after Sabean got promoted to GM one of the first things he did was fire Bobby Bonds (along with Wendell Kim and Jim Davenport). For half the winter that year Bonds demanded to be traded and the Giants pretended to be interested in trading him to rebuild after a terrible year. Instead, the Giants kept Bonds and added Kent (and others). While Sosa and McGwire were tearing it up in 97 and 98, Kent was putting up some good numbers in SF. Bonds felt all sorts of pressure to reassert himself as the number one superstar. And so he did. Strange, complicated guy. But the best player of his time, no doubt about that.

      • Bozo said, on January 19, 2013 at 12:44 pm

        Not to mention when they moved to Pac Bell in 2000, management really, really, really wanted him to hit splashes in the cove.

  2. willedav said, on January 19, 2013 at 9:02 am

    time for pence to put up or shut up. Yes, the power is nice, but the bad looking Ks and dribblers to the left side are not. He’s a Giant for $13.8 mil—time to show that he’s worth it if he wants to stay here and sign another contract. If this is the guy they are going to have hit behind Posey he has to do better than .219 of last year. Have to hope that was an aberration and he can provide more offensive punch.
    I was high on this guy for a couple years based on his Stros numbers, but as our globetrotter extraordinaire Blade pointed out to me in a thread a while back, there have been some cautionary stats indicating he may have topped out. We’ll see.

    • twinfan1 said, on January 19, 2013 at 10:33 am

      Well, either way, doubtful he does want to stay here (IMO), but good numbers this year will boost his value in the FA market.

  3. twinfan1 said, on January 19, 2013 at 9:39 am

    Earl Weaver passes away.

    http://tinyurl.com/bdcm8ju

    earl

  4. twinfan1 said, on January 19, 2013 at 10:09 am

    Just a quick follow up on the Liar, Liar thread..maybe some of you have seen this already..
    “University of Notre Dame administrators showed greater concern to the news that Manti Te’o’s girlfriend and her death were a hoax than when they learned a real student committed suicide 10 days after accusing a university football player of sexually assaulting her…”

    http://tinyurl.com/

  5. Alleykat said, on January 19, 2013 at 10:44 am

    Sad to hear the passing of Earl Weaver.He was by far my favorite manager growin up.(and of course im all Giants) The best and most fiery manager of alltime,his antics were legendary,and his track record will never be touched,never had a losing season,unheard of by most standards.
    I use to get a kick out of him,watching him in the dugout between the corridors leading to the clubhouse,lighting up one after another smokes watching his own Closer Don “2 packs” Stanhouse try and finish off games.
    He used to also get kick
    ed out of both Doubleheader games,talking shit and right up end the ump’s face ( just like Twin’s photo).
    RIP…Earl Weaver!! Im one huge fan of yours who will miss you.

  6. twinfan1 said, on January 19, 2013 at 10:51 am

    How Earl would like to be remembered..

    • Alleykat said, on January 19, 2013 at 11:36 am

      Thanks Twin!!..That is damm right on how I will remember Earl Weaver,what a passion for the game and true baseball fans.He was fantastic for the game,though the umps would differ from that.
      I know your Dad was a Football commentator,but did he ever have a opinion about Earl with you back in the days? Just curious.

      • twinfan1 said, on January 19, 2013 at 12:55 pm

        He did a lot more than football- he even did a rifle meet on radio once and I bet that was exciting.
        “Bang..missed. Bang..bullseye- and now a word from Hamm’s Beer”..Anyway he did the Twins from ’61 to ’66. Don’t remember him talking about Earl but he had to have loved him. As smooth as Pop was on the air, he was a raucous viewer. Watching any kind of sporting event on TV with my father was a hoot. Screamed at bad calls, dunderheaded errors… had to laugh at this portion of an obit of Dad in the LA Times. Gee, can’t imagine why he was depressed. What a pussy.
        ” Scott had a number of major medical setbacks over the last six years, including a heart attack, triple-bypass surgery, kidney failure, a kidney transplant, gall bladder surgery, hip replacement surgery and dehydration and depression.”
        (and they missed prostate cancer, Bell’s Palsy, and a couple more heart attacks ).

  7. Flavor said, on January 19, 2013 at 11:43 am

    Just got sent a great pic of Pawlie at the trophy viewing. He says he just shook hands with Peter McGowan on the street. I’ll upload the pic when I get home later this pm

    • Alleykat said, on January 19, 2013 at 11:56 am

      Way to Pawlie,Way to go!
      Or was that suppose to be Way to go! Paula,Way to go!(Officer and a Gentlemen)
      Either way,great stuff, Trophy look and shakiing Pete’s hand.

  8. Bozo said, on January 19, 2013 at 12:49 pm

    Here is a shot outside Finnerty’s, I don’t see Pawlie but maybe Macdog is there.

  9. Alleykat said, on January 19, 2013 at 1:37 pm

    Brian Wilson’s tenure in SF is all but over( no suprise) leading his way to a Mets deal or, some other team.
    Giants GM Brian Sabean all but confirmed that the closer will not be returning in 2013.
    “I’m going to be brutally honest as I always am. I don’t (I think Wilson will return).”Sabeansaid during an event in Midtown NY on Saturday.”In this case, where you are getting a second TJ…it’s the type of rehab where he’s still not further up along to judge exactly where he may be able to come back in major league fashion(Mr.Glass anyone?) let alone as a closer.”

    Wilson wasn’t the only topic of discussion,and Sabean recieved a vote of confidence from the team(Shit why wouldn’t he?) Team President and CEO Larry Baer who appeared along side Sabean and HOFamer Willie Mays at the Westin Hotel NY, adressed the spending of the team’s NL West rivals,the Dodgers.

    I just freakin love what Larry Baer says next……
    “I think that at the end,the dollars factor some,but the beauty ofour game and most games is that it comes down to judgement.” Baer said.
    “(Sabean) and the staff and (Manager Bruce Bochy) and his coaching staff, we’ll put the money against their judgements any day of the week!
    “We’ve put together a plan that is getting us into postseason and focusing on us having a championship caliber geam,” Baer said…
    Gotta dig that confidence and Attitude!!!!!
    Orange and Black,,,And don’t look back!!!
    On board for another “Fantastic Season defending Our W/S Championship.”
    Oh BTW…Fuck the Dodgers!!!!!!!
    Pretty much what’s Larry Baer is saying as well.

  10. zumiee said, on January 19, 2013 at 3:06 pm

    Regarding Finnerty’s….sounds like a really cool place, although not exactly what I thought it was, as Pawlie has written about in his own experience there. I also would have been expecting to see some older baseball NY Giants fans there, but that’s not the way it is.

  11. zumiee said, on January 19, 2013 at 3:13 pm

    AlleyK, I don’t know about Weaver’s “record never being equaled.” When it was all said and done, he won 1 World Series championship, with a team loaded with talent. I’m not as impressed.

    • Alleykat said, on January 19, 2013 at 4:00 pm

      Zumie, Guess we would have to say the same about
      Bobby Cox as well.Loaded with talent,but only one ring.
      I’ll still take fiery overall winning managers,then some of these creampuffs now days.(Excluding our own Bruce Bochy) of course.

  12. Yogi Barrister said, on January 19, 2013 at 3:55 pm

    I loved Earl Weaver, had the pleasure of seeing him get ejected from a game at Yankee Stadium. He even got a standing ovation, either him or the ump that gave him the boot. As for his WS record, it’s too small a sample to judge. His .583 winning %, 9th overall, puts his career in proper perspective. He was the original sabermatician and a great character. I’d like to hear the conversation he’s having with Casey Stengel right now in the dugout at the Field of Dreams.

    • twinfan1 said, on January 19, 2013 at 5:07 pm

      How are you, Yogi?

      • Flavor said, on January 19, 2013 at 5:35 pm

        This could shake up the winter doldrums a bit, eh? DumeroUno: keep it cool and we’re cool…

  13. snarkk said, on January 19, 2013 at 5:17 pm

    I disagree with the Shandler comments on Crawford. I think his hitting has a definite upside over the next few years. I think he’ll turn into a .265 or so hitter, with about a 6-8 HR and 40 doubles guy…

    • twinfan1 said, on January 19, 2013 at 5:33 pm

      I like to look for several projections. RotoChamp has him at .264 5 HR 51 RBI ..326 OBP .691 OPS. That’s about what I see.

  14. Macdog said, on January 19, 2013 at 5:59 pm

    Back from Basking on Broadway, Part 2! Actually, I think it was the East Village. Whatever, the Trophy made its way back to the Big Apple at Finnerty’s. Met up with PawlieK, who, needless to say, had already ingratiated himself with a bunch of Giants fans while waiting in line. I had brought “World Serious” for Pawlie to sign, but he commandeered my book so he could give it to Larry Baer, who was there along with Peter Magowan. In exchange, Pawlie got Baer’s business card, which he now seems to have misplaced. Anyway, a wonderful day spent basking with NY/NJ Giants fans, and got my picture with the Trophy to carry me through the winter. Since I can’t make the parades in SF, then this is the next-best thing.

    • twinfan1 said, on January 19, 2013 at 6:10 pm

      Sounds like quite a day.Here’s a cool little video of the last out of the 2010 WS at Finnerty’s..
      .

    • pawliekokonuts said, on January 19, 2013 at 6:22 pm

      Macdog said all truthy stuff. He was generous enough to satisfy my panic at not having a book. So, yeah, Mr. Baer has John’s (Macdog’s) copy. I loved meeting Baer and Magowan. Need to chronicle this in detail but can’t simmer down yet. In my frenzy, misplaced card after Baer said, “Look me up when you’re in town.” Hell to yeah I will if I go back. It. Was. A. Blast. There were some older NEW YORK Giants fans, more than in October, for sure. But so what? It was fun to be with John, Ran, Melanie, and Amie, our little crew. Oh, and I touched the trophy.

      • Macdog said, on January 19, 2013 at 7:11 pm

        That is a cool vid, Twin. Which reminds me, Pawlie said he saw Ashkon there, too. Another nice touch was inside the bar, all the TVs were showing the playoff games: Reds Game 5, Cards Game 5, Tigers Games 3-4. About the only bummer was they weren’t serving beer while the trophy was on display.

    • eddacker said, on January 20, 2013 at 12:05 am

      I LOVE vicarious basking; thanks.
      My only question is: was Mrs. Baer there?

    • Macdog said, on January 19, 2013 at 7:35 pm

      “He had 1,815 base hits in home games during his career and 1,815 on the road.” The Man.


Comments are closed.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 501 other followers

%d bloggers like this: