Felix Hernandez: 7 Years/175 Million?
Pardon me for interrupting with an Non SF Giants/American League post, but the Mariners are straight stupid. This one might actually be dumber than the 8 year/184 million $ deal that Mauer scored. At least you could reasonably be able to count on Mauer playing first base or DH in the last 4 or 5 years of that deal…..
King Felix is a stud, there’s no denying it. He won a Cy Young in 2010 after winning only 13 games but had underlying CY numbers that killed it. It was the first time ever that voters literally tossed wins out of the equation. His CY was almost seen as an equal victory for the field of sabermetrics…..
He was fantastic last year too, tossing 232 innings and striking out 223. He threw a perfect game. He’s the definition of a *horse*.
But Seattle isn’t in a position of making a bunch of financial mistakes. They aren’t the Angels or the Dodgers, two teams who could care less about a contract performing as they can just re-load and fire away on another expensive FA player if the first one gets hurt or sucks.
Seattle is all-in with this mega deal. And they’re all in on a freaking pitcher. A 27 year old guy who just finished his 8th season with the team—1,620.1 innings are logged on to that right arm. And while his underlying numbers are still mostly holding themselves together at an elite level there is this little diddy to consider:
His average fastball for the last five years:
2007: 95.6 mph
2008: 94.6 mph
2009: 94.0 mph
2010: 94.1 mph
2011: 93.3 mph
2012: 92.1 mph….
Giants fans cringe at numbers like these as they’ve had to painfully watching Timmy’s descend into a similar black hole. Dodger fans get to watch Josh Beckett’s slowing fastball next year, too…….
King Felix is a stud, he may be big and strong enough to never get hurt. He may ultimately re-invent himself and become a knuckleballer or a pin-point soft tosser once the fastball hits Zito levels. But I’m being honest here, I don’t think I can name another pitcher on the Mariners roster right now except *Charlie Furbush* and that’s only because I think he has a funny name.
The Mariners just shot their entire (money) wad all over a guy who is literally their only current relevant pitcher. And we all know how teams do who sport nothing after their single good starting pitcher. As the years tick off and Hernandez’ fastball continues to dip along with his success, how stoked are they gonna be to be paying him 25 million dollars a year to pitch for their last place team?
I admit to being a sick ambulance chaser when it comes to these gynormous deals. Almost all of them fail (CC’s has held up) and I have total confidence in Brian Sabean that he will never sign another free agent pitcher to a dumb Zito/Rowand deal ever again. Sit back and watch the carnage unfold, Giants fans. Another team just bit the dust today……..
I’m thinking the M’s might want to consider moving those fences back next year, maybe even adding 70-80 feet. They’re gonna need ‘em to keep their opposition under 10 runs each game in the coming years………