Looking at WAR Unlike The Way Bill James Might Look at It
WAR is one of those stats I observe but don’t really use to evaluate a player. For starters, it factors in defense and that’s not really on my radar when it comes to building daily fantasy teams. Secondly, I don’t understand how to calculate it and that’s another reason I’m probably cooled to it. Thirdly, what I do know about it I don’t like since I think it emphasizes defense too heavily and I think the sabermetric community has a LONG way to go when it comes to perfecting defensive metrics.
As I drove into work this morning, I was thinking about Pagan and his obvious impact on the team (both when he plays and when he doesn’t). Is there a player out there who defines “replacement player” better than Gregor Blanco? I decided to look up their WAR numbers and see how they compare. For those of you who know nothing about WAR, consider this: The WAR number tries to quantify how many wins a player is worth to his team when compared to a replacement player (ie, someone from the bench or the minor leagues).
In 2013, Blanco’s WAR was 2.8. Pagan’s was 1.3. In 2014, Blanco’s WAR is 0.4, Pagan’s in 1.7.
And then I looked at the wild splits the Giants have the last 2 years with Pagan in the line up and without him in the line up. And that’s actually a lie, I didn’t look it up. But I know the Giants are like 20 games over .500 with him in the LU, and significantly under .500 when he’s not in the line up.
So I’m gonna take the liberty and adjust Pagan’s WAR from it’s current 1.7 and bump it up to like 40.6. Sound good?
Imagine if the great WAR machine Mike Trout went down and he was replaced by a healthy Angel Pagan. Would that team go into the tank?
Just another way to look at it.
I changed out the BBOTD again. Dumpy only had so many wins in that ass. I went a little sideways with the current pic–kinda like how it feels this season is going………