THE San Francisco Giants Blog

Looking at WAR Unlike The Way Bill James Might Look at It

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on June 25, 2014

WAR is one of those stats I observe but don’t really use to evaluate a player. For starters, it factors in defense and that’s not really on my radar when it comes to building daily fantasy teams. Secondly, I don’t understand how to calculate it and that’s another reason I’m probably cooled to it. Thirdly, what I do know about it I don’t like since I think it emphasizes defense too heavily and I think the sabermetric community has a LONG way to go when it comes to perfecting defensive metrics.

As I drove into work this morning, I was thinking about Pagan and his obvious impact on the team (both when he plays and when he doesn’t). Is there a player out there who defines “replacement player” better than Gregor Blanco? I decided to look up their WAR numbers and see how they compare. For those of you who know nothing about WAR, consider this: The WAR number tries to quantify how many wins a player is worth to his team when compared to a replacement player (ie, someone from the bench or the minor leagues).

In 2013, Blanco’s WAR was 2.8. Pagan’s was 1.3. In 2014, Blanco’s WAR is 0.4, Pagan’s in 1.7.

And then I looked at the wild splits the Giants have the last 2 years with Pagan in the line up and without him in the line up. And that’s actually a lie, I didn’t look it up. But I know the Giants are like 20 games over .500 with him in the LU, and significantly under .500 when he’s not in the line up.

So I’m gonna take the liberty and adjust Pagan’s WAR from it’s current 1.7 and bump it up to like 40.6. Sound good?

Imagine if the great WAR machine Mike Trout went down and he was replaced by a healthy Angel Pagan. Would that team go into the tank?

Just another way to look at it.

________________

I changed out the BBOTD again. Dumpy only had so many wins in that ass. I went a little sideways with the current pic–kinda like how it feels this season is going………

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  1. Bozo said, on June 25, 2014 at 7:26 pm

    Great shot, but come on, give it up for Murph.

    • Bozo said, on June 25, 2014 at 7:28 pm

      Oh yeah. I think you could title this Chemistry 101

      • blade3colorado said, on June 25, 2014 at 7:34 pm

        shhh . . . James might be listening. :-)

  2. Macdog said, on June 25, 2014 at 7:39 pm

    All 27 outs: http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/28033182/v34033521

  3. dirtnrocksnomo said, on June 25, 2014 at 7:43 pm

    Now that I think about it, this was bound to happen as my father in law and I were at the Pettit no hitter into the 9th last year and the Lincecum plus a bunch of BP arms near no hitter earlier this year. I think that one went into the 6th. Gonna have to watch the CSN replay tonight. I’m sure the wife will enjoy that.

    • snarkk said, on June 25, 2014 at 7:52 pm

      Dirt, you need to go to Cain’s next game at ATT, give him some of that Dirt mojo to get right…

  4. stickman said, on June 25, 2014 at 7:58 pm

    People were carping about Timmy’s contract for, what was it, $35M? Today he just knocked about $5M off that one. Fans attending games in SF or wherever when #55 is pitching may not know for sure what they’re gonna get, but today’s outing just proved once again that Lincecum sure can cover those seats with butts.

  5. paulinasia said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:07 pm

    Right near the end of that one video showing the last out and the on-field celebration, there’s one view of Timmy as the out is made, and reading his lips, it looks like, not sure, but looks like he pulls out his famous “Fuck yeah!” again. I love that.

  6. pawliekokonuts said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:29 pm

    Dirt, excellent reporting! It’s like a time capsule. I get what you mean about less stressful in person. The WS was like that. It’s like, hey, if if it doesn’t work out, we’re all here together. If it does, we are all here together. Not explaining it right, but the communal aspect gives it an altogether different flavor, if I may use that word here.

  7. pawliekokonuts said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:31 pm

    CSNBayArea showed Bochy toasting Timmy in the clubhouse. Great clip! That fecking gladiator helmet is a fecking hoot!

    • snarkk said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:34 pm

      Either the Giants keep champers on ice for the random great occasion during the entire regular season, or Baer made a run to BevMo before the game ended…

    • blade3colorado said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:55 pm

      When he was doing the gladiator hat bit and raising his hands, each index finger for emphasis, I was reminded of Mad Max, Lord Humongous specifically . . . LOL

  8. snarkk said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:33 pm

    As much as I’ve been disappointed by Timmy the last two years like the rest of us, it’s not my disappointment in him as a person, as a competitor. I’ve never doubted his competitiveness, other than his seeming inability to get better at holding runners on. He’s seemed genuinely embarrassed and perplexed by his slide, never blaming anybody but himself for it. To the point, I’ve just been disappointed by his inability to figure out how to pitch well again without his early career velocity. Days like today remind me of why this “kid” is in my top 5 list of all time favorite Giants. It’s likely that today’s effort means squat as to how Timmy will fare going forward from here. But, it sure was cool…

    • Nipper said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:35 pm

      I concur.

      • pawliekokonuts said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:46 pm

        I con-concur, if I can make up a word.

    • chipower9 said, on June 25, 2014 at 10:20 pm

      I concur, cubed.

  9. pawliekokonuts said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:57 pm

    Watching the cool 5:28 27-out recap Macdog gave us the link for, I thought there were 1 or 2 groundouts that were quite close and one slightly scary play in the OF, when Morse cut in front of Blanco. That, and the typical anxiety of watching Pence catch a ball. But otherwise, Timmy made it look easy.

    • dirtnrocksnomo said, on June 25, 2014 at 9:14 pm

      I was just thinking that. There weren’t any real spectacular plays. Just crisp baseball.

  10. DJLoo said, on June 25, 2014 at 9:34 pm

    After Tim’s no-no last year, the Giants lost 9 of their next 12…

  11. snarkk said, on June 25, 2014 at 9:49 pm

    KNBR replaying the no-hitter right now, all top half frames…

  12. snarkk said, on June 25, 2014 at 9:53 pm

    I may be a stick in the mud, but I really didn’t appreciate Cain drenching Timmy with that bucket of Powerade when he was starting to give an interview to AmyG. Cain was more accurate with that compared to his recent location on his pitches. Not that it would be a Nobel Prize speech, but I would have liked to hear what Lincecum was thinking right after the game ended. Tim was totally drenched, bolted the interview down into the dugout and sputtered an F-bomb as he was heading down into the clubhouse corridor…

  13. snarkk said, on June 25, 2014 at 10:03 pm

    Nice photo of the post-no-hitter celebration…

    • chipower9 said, on June 25, 2014 at 10:26 pm

      BAD ASS picture.

      Wow, what a ride. I was sitting at work and thankfully had no meetings today, so I was able to listen from the beginning. It was around the 6th when my ears really started to perk-up. Timmy has always been my daughter’s boy since day one. She and I went to dinner last week and discussed Timmy. I was telling her that I really questioned his ability to be any semblance of the pitcher he was. And then he pulls out a gem like this. With #55, you just never know.

      I echo snarkk’s sentiments, Timmy will always be one of my top five Giants (has been since very early in his career).

      Let’s hope this is an indication of more good times ahead.

      LET’S ROLL!


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