THE San Francisco Giants Blog

NASA, Fear of Walls and Bad Haircuts

Flavor — Wed, 22 May 2013 13:26:39 +0000

I didn’t get to catch the end of the game last night. So thank you, MLB.com

Wow, what a game. NASA is following Sandoval’s bomb and has promised to shoot me an email of it’s ultimate landing spot.

Bryce Harper continues to amaze me in the outfield. It’s like he has no awareness at all of where the wall is in the outfield. But man, Blanco hit a rocket, didn’t he?

I’d probably cut Harper some slack if he didn’t walk around with the one of the worst haircuts in history:

Dudes who walk around with that ‘doo are almost always d-bags. They’re like guys with neck tats only they fuck a little less shit up…..

At least we know he’s a classy winner:

How many of you would be surprised if Harper got a spider tattooed on his face at some point in his life? Of course, if he stays in Washington he’d probably get a gnat tattoo. Hmmmm, might wanna put up the stop sign for that idea. But as we know, Harper doesn’t roll with stop signs…..

Replacing Ryan Vogelsong

Flavor — Tue, 21 May 2013 12:54:26 +0000

Anyone want to change their vote in yesterday’s poll?

Voggy’s WAR for the year is -0.6 so doesn’t that technically mean he’d be super easy to replace? Just pull something off the scrap heap in Frez-NO and we’re good to go? Well, it’s probably not as easy as WAR would have you believe.

Anyway, here are the stats from the starters in Frez-NO:

Underwhelming. Heston and Kickham have potential but they clearly aren’t harnessing it in Fresno yet and the other 3 guys suck.

And now for a look at Double A:

Fitzgerald is having a nice year and I like the K-totals but he’s from the 2008 draft and he’s probably just hoping to one day be AAA roster filler material.

Not that they’d go there, but here is what’s going on in SanHo:

There are a few other pitchers who had a start here or there but basically, this is it.

Unless we want to see The Chad Gaudin Show– it’s one of those *alternative ending* movies that I don’t recommend any of us watch….

Here are the free agent pitchers listed by mlbtraderumors.com:

I think Pavano is still in intensive care following his spleen surgery and Jamie Moyer might have passed on due to natural causes….

Brad Penny anyone? I might roll with that just to get a look at how fat he’s gotten…..

Maybe a trade? Does Sabean have the Astros phone number? Bud Norris?

The thing to remember is that Voggy is our #5. On almost all teams, the #5 is expected to suck. In fact, no where but within the SF fan base is there more deliberate discussion, panty-bunching and hand wringing about the state of our #5 pitcher—Zito a few years ago, Lincecum last year and Voggy this year.

Another thought: this isn’t about filling a 6 week gap. Voggy has been terrible this year and the fact that he breaks his hand during his single good start of the year is a sign pointing to this just not being his year. The flip side is that a lot of people thought he had a tired arm from the extended 2012 season and then the WBC. So maybe the break (pun intended) will be good for him.

But just in case, I’m preparing myself to tolerate what almost every other team in the league has to put up with every 5th start:

pain.

Where Do You Rank on the Freak Out!-o-Meter?

Flavor — Mon, 20 May 2013 13:11:44 +0000

The Giants return after a 1-5 road trip that could easily have been 0-6. It wasn’t just the 5 losses, it was the spectacular failure that accompanied them. Horrendous defense, pathetic pitching, deep holes early; rarely filled.

I use KNBR callers as a good barometer for the mental state of the fanbase–it’s almost always a guy overreacting (or pitching some half-baked theory or idea for how to fix things) but it’s a pretty good example of how your run-of-the-mill fan will react to the good and the bad during the baseball season. The over/under on how many times I mutter “idiot” to myself is usually 1.5 per caller. For some reason the line moves to 2.5 on the weekends–I haven’t figured out why….

I listened to KNBR several times this weekend and was shocked at how positive most of the callers were. It was nearly uniformed: “the team will work this out, no reason to jump ship, it’s a long season”—all that jazz.

So either KNBR callers have suddenly gotten smarter or all this b-a-s-k-i-n-g is now m-a-s-k-i-n-g the true reality that this team might not be who we thought they were. Winning 2 of the last 3 World Series can cloud your judgement, right? Or not, let’s see.

Time for a Poll:

“Catch the Ball, Throw the Ball”

Flavor — Sun, 19 May 2013 14:27:58 +0000

Though it’s a fairly instinctive human quality, our guys seem to be having a tough time this year with the basics of *catch and throw*. The defense has been atrocious on this trip so I wasn’t surprised to see where we ranked across all of mlb in *errors made*:

It’s not too much of a stretch to say that all of these errors are effecting the pitching break down–errors cause the pitchers to get frustrated which in turn impacts their focus and concentration and that’s not the way you want your pitchers pitching. But though they’re professional ballplayers they’re still human beings and they’re clearly having trouble pitching through all these mistakes–although they should be able to do it, they committed a lot of errors last year too (4th most in NL) and they still managed to win the World Series.

Zito seems to fall apart on the mound the quickest when errors are made behind him. That’s just my opinion, I don’t have stats to back that up. I’d say Timmy is the next guy to implode the quickest.

Zito has been horrendous on the road this year so despite his decent numbers at Coors Field we could be in for another high scoring game today. And if the Giants keep fumbling the ball this one could be over quickly.

Brett Pill? Sure, Why not

Flavor — Sat, 18 May 2013 13:33:28 +0000

As you know, Pill’s back. Yawn. He was tearing up triple A so they brought him back. Hitting 2 doubles in your first start of the year is a good way to get yourself another start. Brandon Belt has nothing to worry about, he just got a day off.

Gregor Blanco and Andres Torres, however, should start worrying. Through 176 co-at bats this year they have cobbled together a single dong. The Q’s got that equaled all by his lonesome and he did it in 25 total at bats. Pill has actually hit righties better than lefty’s in his mlb career .291 > .217 so it’s not a given at all that he’s just going to get starts vs a lefty.

I can muster zero excitement about Brett Pill being back, but when your LF spot hasn’t hit for squat this year it’s not the worst idea in the world to plug a guy who’s hot in there and ride him for however long he can keep the torch lit.

And hitting is something we absolutely need if we’re going to win baseball games consistently. Our pitching staff is tattered and torn after this road trip implosion. And unbelievable but true, our gloves might actually be worse than our pitchers.

So keep on hacking Brett, we need every hit you can muster right now. If Blanco or Torres have to sit in his favor, so be it.

When Do We Pull The Trigger on Trading For an Established Starting Pitcher?

Flavor — Fri, 17 May 2013 13:34:42 +0000

I reads a headline at Yahoo (not the article, just the headline) that suggested the Dodgers should trade for Jake Peavy (assuming the White Sox continue their slide out of contention). If I’m Brian Sabean, I’m doing everything I can to beat the Dodgers to it. Peavy’s a bit of an injury risk, he’s making 14.5 next season and he’s got a player option for 15mil in 2015 if he meets certain criteria. But that’s a very reasonable salary for a top flight starter (and Peavy has definitely re-established himself as one of the better starting pitchers in the game).

But stats are facts, and there is growing evidence that our starting pitching isn’t going to be able to duplicate the collective success they’ve had in recent years. He could fit anywhere into our starting 5, replacing any number of SF Giant starters who are either ineffective or injured.

Plus, I really don’t want to see the Dodgers build their pitching staff up this Summer. I don’t think it would take a lot to get Peavy since his future salary, while manageable, will scare off most of the lower market teams. But you only need 2 buyers to bid against each other. So honestly, I’m not sure what Peavy would cost.

Thoughts?

WAR–What is it Good For? Absol….

Flavor — Thu, 16 May 2013 13:10:30 +0000

Ok, I’m not going to finish that headline. It must be a stat that has value. I don’t understand how’s it’s calculated. Most people don’t. It’s a number (expressed in runs–about 10 runs to one win) that is called a player’s *worth* over the course of a year. This number (runs saved or produced) is seen as value to his team over a hypothetical replacement player from AAA. It measures things like how good of a base runner he is, did his ballpark help or hurt him, his walk rate, extra base hit rate, his defense….it goes on and on.

Because it factors in defense and other metrics that don’t count in a 5X5 roto league I pay very little attention to WAR.

Here are the current top WAR players in MLB:

There are some nice names on that list but any metric that has Russell Martin ahead of Miguel Cabrera is going to have me tune out in a nano-second.

Fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com calculate WAR differently but they are considered the top 2 sites for WAR calculations. I took this example from an espn article that I read this morning: Heading into this season, Fangraphs gave BJ Upton a 13.9 WAR over the last 4 years–that is considered all-star worthy, one of baseball’s top 50 players over the same time period. Baseball-reference gives him a 7.2 WAR over the same 4 year period, which is actually a little worse than an average major league player. After giving him 5 years and 75 million, Braves fans are probably anxious to see which site was correct. After his terrible start, Braves fans probably feel that both sites are FOS.

40 games into the season, here’s where BJ Upton ranks in terms of WAR compared to all other outfielders:

That’s not a misprint. He’s dead last.

So excuse me if I don’t find the WAR stat as titillating or tantalizing as the math geeks do. Here are the current standings from my NFBC league:

It’s a 12 team league but the overall competition is comprised of 1140 teams. $350 entry fee. In addition to the $1400 you take home if you win the league, there are bonuses for the top 20 overall (70K to winner, 15K for 2nd, 10K for 3rd…on down). As you can see, I’m destroying my league and I’m 25th overall (out of 1140 teams) Sorry, in advance, to those who don’t find humor in my team name.

Anyway, I don’t have a single clue what the cumulative WAR number is for this dominant team. And I could care less……

Playing Baseball on the Road

Flavor — Wed, 15 May 2013 12:59:45 +0000

I get why playing at home is such an advantage for football and basketball teams. The noise level is off the charts. And in basketball, the fans are almost literally on top of the players. And they sound guy is constantly screwing with the road team with annoying music.

But I’ve never really understood why it’s such an advantage in baseball to be the home team. The fans are kept at a distance. Usually the park is outdoors. And baseball is mostly a calm event with crowd noise contingent on specific plays occurring—it’s not constant noise like with basketball or football (where fans are constantly reacting loudly). Thus, players should be able to concentrate on their jobs.

Is it just the travel repercussions? Do the players miss the home cookin’ that much? Or are they just too distracted by all the road-whores?

I dunno.

The Giants went from playing fantastic baseball vs the Braves to playing crap baseball against the Blue Jays. Did they get distracted by having to present their passport at the airport? Are they having trouble with the local language? Are the streets too clean?

And don’t even get me started on the Rockies home/road splits….

Why is it so hard for baseball teams to play on the road?

23.4 percent down…and a long way home…

twinfan1 — Tue, 14 May 2013 03:27:17 +0000

As we approach the 1/4 mark of the season, here’s how the guys would do at their current pace. (4.2 is the multiplier). The first three numbers are BA/OBP/OPS ( which remain as is, of course) The HR and RBI totals are multiplied by 4.2. I’ve added runs in addition to RBI if the run total is significant. Only two players have SB numbers of note. After the projected totals, I’ve added my mini-commentary.

Posey .294 .399 .920 21 HR 101 RBI
Belt .233 .300 .688 17 HR 76 RBI
Scutaro .305 .349 .774 4 HR 38 RBI 84 R
Sandoval .320 .363 .845 25 HR 109 RBI
Crawford .279 .352 .840 21 HR 71 RBI 84 R
Blanco .289 .363 .729 0 HR 55 RBI
Torres .246 .300 .626 4 HR 17 RBI
Pagan .259 .314 .673 8 HR 67 RBI 105 R 21-34 SB
Pence .281 .319 .809 29 HR 92 RBI 84 R 29-29 SB

Cain 8-8 5.04 1.16
MadBum 17-4 2.18 0.93
Zito 13-4 2.75 1.30
Lincecum 13-8 4.07 1.38
Vogelsong 4-13 7.78 1.73
Romo 8-8 3.12 1.04 50-59 SV/SO

Posey: that looks right.
Belt: the HR/RBI numbers bode well for the rest of the way, considering his slow start.
Scooter: I was more pessimistic about him than any of the position players. I’m still very skeptical of his defense. I’m not ready for my “Corvus Fricassee” yet but I’m looking wrongo so far.
Sandoval: Looks good to me. Hit like he does and he ain’t fat, he’s cuddly…
Crawford: Can’t see him maintaining this pace but he sure looks solid. Craig said he should hit 15 dingers. Sounds right. .260 15-65 and GG defense.
Blanco- better than I expected.
Torres – Game winner one day, hat trick the next. I need to see more to make a call for the rest of the way.
Pagan- runs and RBI are outstanding numbers. If he picks up his BA/OBP it should be a banner year.
Pence- everything considered, he just may be the MVP at this point.
Cain: looks to be baaaaaacccckkkkk. 14-8.
MadBum: squarely in the CY picture.
Zito/Lincecum: 13 wins 10 losses 3.90 ERA 1.35 WHIP. That’s right- the Vulcan Pitcher Meld- they put up the same numbers.
Vogelsong : can his game day scowl be enough? Is Nicole tiring him out? Good sign: he lost over 3 MPH FB velocity over the winter. It’s coming back. 9-10.
Romo: I still think he’ll end up setting up- for Hembree.

Awe or None

Flavor — Sun, 12 May 2013 14:17:21 +0000

Kokonuts sent me an email the other day and I liked the title as well as the topic so in honor of “Mr Awe or None” himself pitching today, I decided to make it today’s thread:

Awe or None

The all (or awe) or none aspect of baseball is hard to explain. In Ryan Vogelsong’s last start he had 7 strikeouts in 4.1 innings. He also gave up 7 hits, 1 HR, and 6 earned runs. Last year many of Tim Lincecum’s starts exhibited this same black-white bipolarity. If the pitcher gets a batter out, it’s by a strikeout; otherwise, it’s a walk, filled with pitches wildly out of the strike zone, or a catastrophic hit.

This reminds me of two other notable players, both at the end of their careers. I don’t have specific stats to cite, but I am rock-solid sure about this. Toward the end, Mark McGwire’s at-bats consisted of either a whiff or a bomb. That was pretty much it, to a stunning degree. Strikeout or homer. All or nothing. Similarly, in his last, sad days — some with the Giants — my favorite pitcher of the Seventies, Steve Carlton, either struck batters out or yielded a homer, to a degree that it sticks out in my mind. Again, all or none.

What does it tell us? It’s hard to say it’s merely a matter of concentration. How could it be turned on or off so readily? Is it mechanics? It baffles me. If it is not at the end of someone’s career — in other words, if it is fixable — how do you fix it? When Bruce Bochy put Timmy in as a secret weapon reliever in the postseason, it seemed to reset everything about Timmy. Is that the solution for Vogelsong? What’s the answer? To paraphrase Gertrude Stein: more important, what’s the question? In other words, do we even know what the problem is?

_________________________________

Pawlie, to respond to your McGwire and Carlton references, I’m not looking it up either, but I remember it the same way you do. Here’s my take: The greatest players are great for a reason–they have skills that other players don’t have. Once they start to erode, we see a decline in production like we do with all players. However once you display a skill, you own it for life. Now, that doesn’t mean you can get the exact same production out of that skill forever. But even with the window closing on your career (and your skills) the great players can still display their greatness as long as they *tighten up their target*. For McGwire, it might mean looking for nothing but fastballs or pitches in a specific spot in the zone–one of those balls comes in, he blasts it. If it doesn’t, he strikes out. Same with Carlton. If he lost his heater, maybe he had another specialty pitch that he was still able to throw at a HOF level even as his career was ending. Sadly for him, the rest of his pitches would get feasted on by eager hitters waiting out that last great specialty pitch he had in his arsenal.

Anyway, thanks for the thread idea. Happy Mother’s Day to all of your mom’s, the mom’s of your kids and any other mom’s you know in the world……