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What to Expect out of Cody Ross in 2011….

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on January 30, 2011

Yes, I know I’m ripping off John Shea’s topic at the Chron today, but when the baseball headlines are “Russ Springer Retiring” and “Padres Sign Sam Deduno”, the blog threads are gonna be slim pickins….

Cody Ross: We all love him and that’s going to color our predictions for 2011. The facts are, this is a player who is declining. His slugging % vs right handers has dropped 3 consecutive years (.451, .424., .371).  His OPS has been in a freefall, too: ..1057 in 2007, then .798, .751 and .730.  His walk rate and contact % is almost exactly the same as Aaron Rowand’s…..

And don’t forget, the only reason he even got a chance to play was because Guillen sucked and ultimately got forced off the post season roster by MLB for his connection to steroid shipment. Otherwise, we wouldn’t even be talking about Cody Ross……

The thing Ross has going for him is: very little competition. He’ll start for us this year, maybe the entire year. But I think we’ve seen the best Cody Ross will ever give us. It’s all downhill from here……

55 Responses

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  1. TedSpe said, on January 30, 2011 at 8:58 am

    It’s funny, right after the post season, I first questioned everyone’s overt enthusiasm over Ross. He had a great NLCS but overall I said…feh. On the other hand, though there’s no arguing with Flav’s stats, getting down to basics, before last year Cody’s power stats, doubles, HRs, RBIs were slowly increasing the previous 2 years. He’s only 30. I say now, 2011 is a big question mark with him. It could go either way. It’s worth the gamble.

  2. James said, on January 30, 2011 at 9:24 am

    I don’t see any reason why Ross won’t give us an OPS near his life time numbers in 2011. If you factor in his PS stats with those from the regular season, you get numbers that are more representative of what he’s likely to do over a full season.

  3. stixwiz said, on January 30, 2011 at 9:39 am

    Stats are stats and a decline is a decline. That said, we must not overlook one more factor: The Team effect. Playing for Florida Ross was mostly playing for himself, grinding it out, stuck in an atmosphere dominated by a ripoff ownership which could care less than baseball beyond their eagleeyed focus on the bottom line. Only a few players can thrive in such an environment. Cody was evidently not one of those few.

    So i do expect something of a rebound this year. The postseason was an indicator. The talent is still there. Motivation was missing. One would have to be a very tired soul not to have fun around the likes of Huff; Burrell; Franchez; Posey; Torres and Sandoval. And that says nothing about all those characters on the pitching staff. Winning is contagious. Hitting is contagious. Fun is contagious.

    Ross is at a crossroads in his career and he probably knows it more than anyone as the accidental Giant. He’s still young enough to make a go of it. The probable arrival of Brandon Belt sometime this season and the possible promotions of Neal and Peguera means there is some push from below. If i were to make a prediction it would be along the lines of a .275 BA; 15-18 Dingers and about 150 runs produced: Not star quality, but quite adequate for a team with superlative pitching and an outstanding team spirit.

  4. Flavor said, on January 30, 2011 at 9:49 am

    well, I’m not dead set on “it’s all downhill from here”. I was wrong about Torres, I could be wrong about Ross, too. But those stats I listed off are red flags and it’s not like this dude is 24 years old……

    • James said, on January 30, 2011 at 10:49 am

      Again, there’s no reason not to consider the PS stats as part of his overall performance for 2010. It pushes his PAs up to 630 or so with a ~770 OPS. The league OPS took a huge dive from 739 to 723, so, by that measure, Cody played pretty much the same in 10 as he did in 09.

  5. sj_news_reader said, on January 30, 2011 at 10:08 am

    honestly, I’m hoping Ross was declining in stats because he lost his motivation. I know this sounds cheesy, but he was well received in SF and won a world series after being waved by the freaking marlins. He was awesome for the Giants when it mattered so obviously something changed. Maybe he got a fire lit under his ass and hopefully that carries over to this up comming season. Call my naive, but I’m a believer in him.

  6. snarkk said, on January 30, 2011 at 10:18 am

    I think he’s better than Bowker…

  7. Flavor said, on January 30, 2011 at 10:33 am

    yeah, it’s not like he’s blocking one of our young stud OF’s. I still want to believe in Thomas Neal but he needs to step it up this year……

  8. Rough Trade said, on January 30, 2011 at 10:40 am

    He played in just 66 games in 07, so I’d look at just the last 3 yrs. The actual numbers reveal no real drop off until last yr.
    .804 in 08, .790 in 09, .735 in 10.

    Stix makes a good point about playing for a contender. I expect he’ll give them something like .260/20/75 780ops…If not, he’s just signed for one yr. He was is better than what they had or what was avail.

  9. xootsuit said, on January 30, 2011 at 10:44 am

    Cody Ross is a big question mark, but, as BF points out with his “lack of competition” note, who do you want out there in RF instead — Nate? Bowker? (Oh, wait. Bowker went to the Pirates for Lopez. Hmmm. Wonder who’d be interested in Ross mid-season?) Anyway, if Ross does a Rowand imitation, DeRosa may fill in, and the team could go looking, as they did last year. Or, most fanciful dream of all, Belt may come roaring out of ST like the return of Will Clark and Huff may spend most of his time in the OF, making Ross a far less important part of the team. All of it is possible. Who knows.

    For those of you who might like something to peruse on the commute, or after lock down:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/30/books/review/Weber-t.html?pagewanted=2&ref=review

    • xootsuit said, on January 30, 2011 at 10:47 am

      Sorry. I guess I could’ve linked to page one of the article:
      http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/30/books/review/Weber-t.html?pagewanted=1&ref=review

    • snarkk said, on January 30, 2011 at 11:02 am

      I read the article, some interesting ideas. I don’t doubt at all that home field advantage is largely a function of home cooking by the refs, regardless of sport. The one idea I found strange, without of course reading the detailed material, was that fans find fault more with refs for acts of commission (seen as interference with the game) than acts of omission (not calling deserved penalties that can have just as much impact). I fail to see how that works, especially in the NFL. I can’t see the holding, the grabbing, the nefarious things that go on every play that the refs don’t call. So, how am I supposed to similarly angry at refs for not calling what I can’t see as compared to calling penalties where on replay I can see never happened?. If the book addressed the issue per Donahue of refs rigging the NBA games, which Stern and ESPN have successfully quashed, I might be interested to read it…

      • xootsuit said, on January 30, 2011 at 11:20 am

        The review is a bit superficial. Baseball, of course, has its own home-field advantage built in even if NO ONE shows up to cheer. And the “acts of commission” discussion can’t possibly lump all calls together. Fans in Philly are still pissed off over the ump’s act of commission that concluded the NLCS. What if the ump in Philly had not called that last pitch to Ryan Howard a strike? The bases would’ve been loaded. But still — maybe Wilson gets Werth out next. So if the ump had called that pitch to Howard a ball (an act of omission to Giants fans), it might’ve been erased in the end. Everything would be copacetic. Nothing, however, will erase the actually called strike three.

      • delmardennis said, on January 30, 2011 at 11:43 am

        That part on “The Myth of the Hand” was bogus. Comparing a hitter’s hot streak to the outcome of flipping a coin 10,000X and eventually “evening out” is ridiculous. A coin doesn’t know if it’s hot (say heads) or cold (tails). Of course the outcome is always 50/50 regardless of the previous flip. But try telling a player that. If he *thinks* he’s hot, *he’s* hot.

        Twin, Hope you are resting comfortably. Look forward to hearing from you soon.

      • xootsuit said, on January 30, 2011 at 12:42 pm

        Now there’s a card-carrying member of GA, if ever I’ve heard one.

      • xootsuit said, on January 30, 2011 at 12:51 pm

        Not that there’s anything wrong about that. (Good luck to you.)

      • xootsuit said, on January 30, 2011 at 1:07 pm

        This is a dull Sunday. A word from twin sure would pick things up. Too wet to play baseball or basketball at the park; nothing but college hoops on the screen. Duke lost. Kentucky was one of the few top 20 teams to win this weekend, and they almost gave their game away. March Madness is going to be wild and unpredictable this year. Hell, Cal is starting look ahead with wide eyes. Think I’ll go put a license plate on the front of my car before the rain starts again. I got a 92 fucking dollar ticket for not having a plate on my front bumper. . . .

  10. ewisco said, on January 30, 2011 at 11:36 am

    I think it was ostler today that mentioned something that the Giants should follow up on: a Machine bobble-head. He meant it as a joke, and i’m not much for bobble-heads, but I think this thing would be huge in this town. In fact, they should call it Brian Wilson bobble-head day and hand out Machine ones without telling anyone ahead of time. The place would go bananas.

    hoping twins well.

  11. TedSpe said, on January 30, 2011 at 12:12 pm

    I’m fairly confident twin’s okay. But medically induced or not, he just went through head trauma.
    Not fun.
    And if he’s cognizant at the moment, he know he’s about to be barraged by us well wishers once he makes a peep here. That in itself takes prep time.
    Hell, even that soph person said it would call.
    That in itself takes *major* prep time.
    It won’t happen. But you still have to prep

  12. Mega Flavor said, on January 30, 2011 at 12:18 pm

    He clicked on the “like” button around 6pm yesterday on the Minnesota twins thread

    • TedSpe said, on January 30, 2011 at 12:19 pm

      There ya go!

  13. Bozo said, on January 30, 2011 at 12:19 pm

    Not sure how well Cody will do, but I’ll be rooting for him. You know we’ve got that clown thing in common and all.
    I will say this about him, the dude sure looked like he was having fun out there, so maybe getting away from the fish is what he needed.

    • TedSpe said, on January 30, 2011 at 12:22 pm

      That’s just what Ishmael said

      • delmardennis said, on January 30, 2011 at 12:41 pm

        The way Wilson was decked out in his garb the other night I half-ass expected his first words to be “Call me Ishmael,”

      • xootsuit said, on January 30, 2011 at 12:57 pm

        Hey, that was a helluva movie, huh, ted?

  14. sinceseventy8 said, on January 30, 2011 at 12:28 pm

    Mattalac from the Splash posted this …

    So just wanted to let you all know that I just tried to call JC and the nurse told me he was out of the unit. The nurse said he’d be back in the unit around 5. Wouldn’t give me any other info but took a message. Anyone actually talk to him or have an update?

  15. Flavor said, on January 30, 2011 at 12:51 pm

    He’ll give us an update when he gets around to it. As Ted said, he’s got a lot on his plate right now. Him clicking the “like” button yesterday was enough for me to know he’s ok…..

  16. eddacker415 said, on January 30, 2011 at 1:02 pm

    Well, I am not a big CRoss fan. I do see him as a lively player with good clubhouse chemistry. And he appears to be a ‘winner’ or ‘clutch’ player: he averages 20 or so homers a season and hit 5 in 15 playoff-ws games for the giants.
    However, when I saw his salary settlement for this year ($6.5M a 50% raise) I was shocked. Don’t know why he got that much when the marlins could have kept him in 2010 for about $1M but gave him away.
    I am glad he is on the team.

  17. eddacker415 said, on January 30, 2011 at 1:03 pm

    but not as glad as I am to know twinfan is ok.
    (insert gay-ass smiley face).

  18. Flavor said, on January 30, 2011 at 1:18 pm

    the Giants seem to be either hoping Ross has taken his game to a new level and/or are paying him off for his post season heroics. Either way, I’m fine with it. It’s one year, if he flames out he will always be honored as a “Forever Giant” the same way Will Clark, matt Williams, etc are……..

  19. zumarust said, on January 30, 2011 at 2:41 pm

    Dodgers’ schedule: Minn.- yes, KC- no, and they have their version of the “rivalry series” with 6 games against the Angels every season. The Angels weren’t all that good last season. Maybe the Angels will be pretty good this season.

  20. zumarust said, on January 30, 2011 at 2:48 pm

    I read a thing today that was talking about what a great load of talent the Royals have in their farm system. Well, sheesh, no kidding. If you’re losing 90 games every season for the last 20 years, some of those high draft picks should work out at some point.
    The kicker in the article?- They don’t expect the farm system to have a major impact on the big club this season, so KC will probably lose 90+ games again this season.

  21. PawlieKokonuts said, on January 30, 2011 at 2:51 pm

    This is not too daring and not too original, but I see Mark De Rosa as the key to the season. (No pressure, Mark.) I liked what I saw when he played. He plays hard, smart, and anywhere. As DeRosa goes so go the Giants. Rewind. As the pitchers, Huff, Tejada, Torres, and . . . never mind.

    • eddacker415 said, on January 30, 2011 at 2:57 pm

      Stopit!
      That rewind hurt my head. . .

    • delmardennis said, on January 30, 2011 at 4:48 pm

      Hey, Pawlie. Please lemme know when the Wash. Post starts their “What Kind of Foal Am I” contest again this yr. That was some good fun. I’d like to give it another shot.

      Being the serial comma [user, abuser, muser?] that you are, you’ll be happy to know that one of this yrs top 3 yo colts is named Comma to the Top. I believe his sire was ,,,,,,, chameleon.

  22. Flavor said, on January 30, 2011 at 4:23 pm

    I will never, ever get sick of this song. I could listen to it a million times and still want to hear it again…….

    • sinceseventy8 said, on January 30, 2011 at 4:53 pm

      The station we listen to at work always plays Journey’s Don’t Stop Believin’ – every time I hear it I expect the Ashkon version. Every time I hear that beginning for the rest of my life I will be expecting the Ashkon version.

    • xootsuit said, on January 30, 2011 at 5:52 pm

      I really think Giants fans should start lobbying to have Ashkon sing in the 7th inning stretch on opening day at China Basin. He just fucking nailed it three or four weeks before it finished. Amazing.

      • sinceseventy8 said, on January 30, 2011 at 6:05 pm

        He should .. too bad the real Opening Day won’t be in SF though. Fucking Dodgers.

    • xootsuit said, on January 30, 2011 at 5:59 pm

      Back in October I heard Kuip tell the murph/mac KNBR guys that the first thing he did when he woke in the morning was listen to Ashkon’s version of this song.

  23. DJLoo said, on January 30, 2011 at 4:51 pm

    I will never, ever get sick of this song. I could listen to it a million times and still want to hear it again…….

    • Flavor said, on January 30, 2011 at 5:46 pm

      weird shit Loo. Is this what you spend you time listening to when you take a hiatus from reality?

    • Bozo said, on January 30, 2011 at 7:02 pm

      Loo, that is a fucking classic. How about Porter Wagner’s The Rubber Room?

  24. Kevin said, on January 30, 2011 at 5:38 pm

    That’s funny Flav, cause I just pulled that song up a week ago. Bored and I needed a lift

    • delmardennis said, on January 30, 2011 at 5:42 pm

      Bored and you needed a lift? A 976 number and a little blue pill usually does the trick for me.

  25. Flavor said, on January 30, 2011 at 5:47 pm

    and by “reality” i mean our blog

  26. DJLoo said, on January 30, 2011 at 6:03 pm

    Hey Flav, were you on to Landry Fields? The kid’s been a revelation in NY…

    • Flavor said, on January 30, 2011 at 6:08 pm

      never saw it coming, at least at the NBA level, and I watched him play a lot. But good on him. Pissed the W’s missed out on him.

  27. Flavor said, on January 30, 2011 at 6:07 pm

    I’ll just say it right now, I am HURTING for some baseball. What a boring ass weekend. My girls kicked the shit out of the team they played in basketball, that was about the highlight of it. I seriously have to tell them to start practicing passing drills during the 4th quarter because the other team is just getting executed…..
    After the SB we enter THE DEAD ZONE. Literally nothing of sports interest except who I put up in the P/C countdown. That is, unless you watch hockey or college bball, which i don’t (except the madness).
    Tomorrow’s post is about the A’s again. Sorry, but there’s something that I just don’t understand about this potential move to San Ho. Maybe one of you can explain it to me…….
    DIRT— I’m gonna be in Reno from Thurs to Sun morning, let me know if you want to hook up for a beer(s)……..

  28. DJLoo said, on January 30, 2011 at 6:13 pm

    I guess “tax season” doesn’t do it for you…

  29. DJLoo said, on January 30, 2011 at 6:23 pm

    I’m not a big fan of Don’t Stop Believing. The Sopranos finale made it big. Now it’s so generic at sporting events – like Sweet Caroline. This would’ve been a better choice for a parody:

  30. Flavor said, on January 30, 2011 at 6:49 pm

    decided to do tomorrow’s post tonight— I’ve got a long work day tomorrow and it’s easier to just get it up now…….

    • PawlieKokonuts said, on January 30, 2011 at 7:01 pm

      well, you’re young; easy for you to say HAHAHAHAHAHA

  31. PawlieKokonuts said, on January 30, 2011 at 7:00 pm

    I for one thought The Sopranos finale was David Chase genius. BTW, I was so fascinated by the recent mob bust I downloaded one of the indictments from the DOJ site. It was as if David Chase himself wrote it. What a riot. Just the names are worth a read.

  32. Nipper said, on January 31, 2011 at 9:35 am

    I expect Cody to be a nice man who has streaks of production and slumps. You know, being a normal MLB player. He may have his best season ever and that would be very nice indeed.


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