A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball

An Early Christmas Present: The Baseball Forecaster has Arrived……

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on December 24, 2011

My 2012 Baseball Forecaster showed up at my door yesterday–it’s the one Christmas present I look forward to each year. You can certainly find a lot of the information on the internet for free–fangraph’s is one site, you can find that in my link column. But there’s something I like about having it all right in front of me, every sabermetric number you could ever want for every single player in the league last year. They also do an outstanding job of translating the numbers as some of it is hard to understand. I won’t bore you with the numbers, but the Forcaster does give a blurb for each player and I thought I’d share some of the more interesting ones. They aren’t always kind and sometimes are rather funny. These blurbs may seem incomplete, they leave the numbers crunching to you and couldn’t fit all that into a little blurb anyway.  They also don’t factor in things like medication imbalances (Torres) or bad attitudes (Pagan) and they went to press a couple of months ago I think so they don’t mention any trade outcomes or FA destinations. Some of players I’m listing off are fairly obvious, I just thought you’d like to see what they say about our most interesting SF giants—just for shits and giggles.

They don’t nail every player’s upcoming season but they often do and I wouldn’t be able to compete in fantasy baseball without the direction given to me by the ‘Forecaster…….

Eli Whiteside– (obviously Whiteside won’t ever play on anyone’s fantasy team but I figured there would be some here who would be interested in his *blurb*): “Blame Posey for having to subject us to this debacle. Back up catcher saw more playing time than expected and showed conclusively his bat is unworthy of anything close to regular at bats. Lacking power, his extreme FB% (flyball %) merely resulted in a ton of routine outs. Can be safely ignored.”

Chris Stewart: 5th mlb team in 5 seasons. “This caddy just doesn’t have the pop to offer any any value with the bat. Even if insanely low h% normalizes at all , we’re still talking spitting distance of Mendoza line. Meanwhile, RC/G R$ shows he’s equally pestilent in any game format.”

Angel Pagan: “Another year, another 30 sb’s, but be careful. Spd decline, especially in 2nd half, suggests those days could be numbered even if aberrant h% normalizes. Poor health says we can’t bank on 500 at bats anymore. Some will look at 30 sb’s as his baseline. You’ll heed warnings and look for premium wheels elsewhere. ”

Andres Torres: “Early season achilles strain cost him a full month. Hit more fly balls merely producing more outs as 2010 power outburst was unsustainable and Xba plummeted accordingly. When a career year comes at after age 30 the odds of a comparable follow up year are almost nil.”

Ryan Vogelsong: “After an absence of 4 full major league seasons, this was as unlikely a return to mlb as we may ever see.  xERA says it wasn’t quite as good as it looked. Age and utter lack of support for this level of success says to not bank on a repeat.”

Mad Bum: “Hard to find a discouraging trend here. Gains in DOM and CMD, particularly exciting. Closed with a flourish in 2H in part by minimizing struggles with RHB. Last year, we said “sign us up.” This year we say “Renew our membership.”

Brian Wilson: “Fear the beard? Should have feared the regression instead. ERA corrected to a level more consistent with his xERA history. Injuries likely drove the CMD erosion. But if elbow is sound, he should remain in upper echelon of closers.”

Brandon Belt: In between frequent rides on the SF/Fresno shuttle, he continued to flash appealing skills. MLB contact% of 70% isn’t good enough but mle’s say he can do better. It may take a while for him to hit .300 but power stroke Px 154 minors/125 majors says power stroke may be here now. Up: 30 hr’s”

Aaron Rowand: “Eye and Px erosion have sent him into a downward spiral. Full time days are long gone. A fine target in leagues that don’t have use for BA, HR’s, RBI’s, or sb’s….”

Panda: Fractured hamate bone zapped power in 1H but boy did it return in 2H. That 2010 power outage looks like a blimp now. I mean blip. .625 road slugging % gives us tease of his upside and his power wasn’t affected by ATT before ’11. With health, fitness and a few more fly balls his upside is .330/35/110″

Melky Cabrera: “Rode expanded PT and career at bats to *break out* season. But most skills were just a slight improvement on 2009. Prorate his ’09 stats to 658 at bats at see for yourself. BA spike was driven by hit rate and will regress. SB spike driven by more opps–prime regression candidate.”

Matt Cain: “Exemplary DOM/DIS splits. Even added more ground balls to an already ultra stable skill set. For 3 years he’s been riding a bit of a hit-rate hot streak, but nonetheless, he remains a very solid investment. ”

Sergio Romo: “skills for the ages. 200+ BPV for 5 of 6 months, along with a 32/1 so/bb over his last 32 innings. slider remains untouchable and he throws it 54% of the time now. late season elbow inflammation bears watching. But if health/opportunity align….up: 30 saves”

Nate Schierholtz: “Pro: mlb career highs in both hr’s and sb’s. Con: they were both in single digits. 1h sb *binge* was an aberration but that small sample 2h px spike, which xPx says could have been even greater, is enough to hold our attention for a little longer. But this is your last chance Nate. UP: 20 hr’s”

Huff: In his last 4 seasons he’s channeled his inner Saberhagen with virtually carbon copy skills in even and odd years. Can he continue the pattern? With plate skills fairly stable, stat output is at the whim of h% and hr/f. He’s 35 and if his 2H at bats become the norm, he may not have a chance to rebound. Bid cautiously.”

Dirrrrty Sanchez: “How bad was it? He walked 4 or more batters in almost half his starts, and only went one start without issuing a walk. But until a rough patch in June (before hitting DL) he was maintaining a 2.0 CMD. If he’s healthy, treat his 2011 as his downside and bid accordingly. ”

There might be others I could have hit, but I’ve got other stuff to go do now. Have a good Christmas eve…….

A side note: Today was the 600th post here at The New Flap. When I hit 1000 I’m walking away…….

33 Responses

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  1. Nipper said, on December 24, 2011 at 9:01 am

    HO HO HO HO HO…….

  2. stixwiz said, on December 24, 2011 at 9:06 am

    Merry Christmas to all the Flappers. Thanx a bunch and a half to Flav for all his diligence and hard work. And a Gleaming, glistening Giant of a New Year for the whole gang.

  3. twinfan1 said, on December 24, 2011 at 9:43 am

    Well, he’s not so hot on the new guys. Or the old guys. A lotta “maybe he will, maybe he won’t”..
    Panda, Belt, Romo, MadBum, Cain are your fantasy guys of those listed.
    All in all, doesn’t appear to be an enthusiastic endorsment of this year’s squad.

    • Nipper said, on December 24, 2011 at 10:17 am

      Give him hell Twin!

      • twinfan1 said, on December 24, 2011 at 10:39 am

        I’m not giving anybody hell. Just an accurate recap. I did expect more actual projections. Maybe Flavor didn’t include them. Seems pretty close to James, really.

      • Nipper said, on December 24, 2011 at 12:39 pm

        That’s it Twin. Keep the pedal to the metal!

    • Big flavor said, on December 24, 2011 at 11:04 am

      I’d say just panda, max bum and Cain. Obviously Timmy too, I just didn’t list him. The blurb’s aren’t meant to be to controversial– they let you come to your own conclusions based on the data– I just thought they would be of interest here, most flappers don’t give a shit about saber numbers–
      Twin, I’d have to re-read his biography, but as I recall, Shandler and James worked closely together from the beginning but Shandler branched off years ago to start his company and churn this book out every year (this is the 22nd edition).

      • Big flavor said, on December 24, 2011 at 11:06 am

        Sorry, I didn’t include belt or romo just cause there is so much speculation on each and Esprcially romo who would need to get a shot at closing before he recognizes his true fantasy value– j don’t play in leagues that count holds, it’s a dumb stat

  4. dirtnrocksnreno said, on December 24, 2011 at 9:46 am

    Felix Navidad muchachos

  5. Xcfantasy said, on December 24, 2011 at 10:27 am

    Can’t say there’s anything there that would sway me one way or another. A lot of question marks there, but that goes for a lot of teams every year. It’s encouraging to see the upside for Belt and a belief Nate could still be an everyday player.

  6. Big flavor said, on December 24, 2011 at 11:23 am

    By the way, the kid in Kawakami’s article– good kid, I used to work with him when I worked with juvenile dept back in the day–I even visited him in juvenile hall a few times. He asked me for a letter of rec about 2 months ago. I couldn’t believe how much this guy had changed. I’m not trying to get you to donate $$ or anything, just vouching for his credibility…

    • Nipper said, on December 24, 2011 at 12:42 pm

      BF is a softy!

  7. Flavor said, on December 24, 2011 at 12:25 pm

    to those uninspired by the *blurbs* — by and large, most Giants are ignored by fantasy players–ie, they languish on the waiver wire. Freddy Sanchez? Baha. In my 12 team league/30 draft rounds, Freddy didn’t even get drafted last year. No speed/no power guys tend to get ignored in fantasy baseball.
    The blurbs I included today were just for players I thought you’d be interested in. The guys that write them have to churn out one for every player in baseball–I’m assuming they don’t spend a lot of time on Whiteside and Stewart, just enough to get them some ink….
    SF Giants who are fantasy guys: Timmy, Cain, Wilson, MadBum, Panda, and Buster. Huff was in 2010 but not last year, he sat on the waiver wire in most leagues for the 2nd half of the season. I wish Bochy had acted as quickly……

  8. Del Mar Dennis said, on December 24, 2011 at 12:37 pm

    Merry Christmas Flappers!

    I wish I could give the same greetings and salutations to our Giants, but they’ve been nothing but Grinch’s this offseason. The Snakes have improved their team immeasurably while we have Barry Zito slated to make 30 starts and have re-signed NO Whitey to a major league contract. Even Tiny Tim’s blessing couldn’t save those two wretches. Bah, humbug!

    • Nipper said, on December 24, 2011 at 12:41 pm

      Stay thirsty!

      • Del Mar Dennis said, on December 24, 2011 at 2:19 pm

        Nipper, a very Merry Christmas to you and yours. I hope your van is decked out with tinsel and lights.
        Oh, speaking of our very favorite man in the world…did you see his latest commercial when they asked his view on Cougars? Like I’ve been telling you for years with my fish, catch and release. Catch and release my friend.


  9. blade3colorado said, on December 24, 2011 at 12:54 pm

    Speaking of Tiny Tim . . . If Tebow has another game like he’s having in Buffalo (e.g., 2 interceptions in less than a minute) next week, I think the good Denver Christian folks will reenact the crucifixion.

    • Del Mar Dennis said, on December 24, 2011 at 2:13 pm

      The Buffalo game was meaningless in the grand scheme of things. If Jesus rises on the 3rd day vs Kansas City, the AFC West prophecy will have been fulfilled.

  10. zumie said, on December 24, 2011 at 2:45 pm

    I can understand the thrill of a baseball publication. I love when the Street and Smith, and the other baseball forecast magazines start appearing in the grocery stores later in the Winter. I dig those magazines, with the roster information, analysis, the team schedules, etc. A lot of fun to read.

  11. unca_chuck said, on December 24, 2011 at 3:29 pm

    Wow. Carroll gives the O another shot, and we don’t take it.

  12. PawlieKokonuts said, on December 24, 2011 at 6:21 pm

    Glad Christmas tidings, Flap Nation. I get anxious when Magnus says he’ll walk away, but we will all walk away someday. (Man, not too many ringing endorsements for our guys.) G’night, all.

    • Big flavor said, on December 24, 2011 at 6:41 pm

      1000 is a nice even number, PAwlie– I ended the last blog at exactly 1 year. It’s probably about a year away, give or take the threads I have to take down.
      All good things end…

    • Del Mar Dennis said, on December 24, 2011 at 7:03 pm

      Pawlie, a very Merry Christmas to you and yours. And a Happy New Year up there in Syracuse Country.

  13. Bozo said, on December 24, 2011 at 7:01 pm

    It wasn’t the best game but I enjoyed the hell out of the 9er win. Happy holidays to all, I’ll save the happy new year shit until April.
    Flav, I understand when it’s done it’s done. Thanks for the last few years on this blog. We could do some dial-a-shots at sometime, but I do look forward to someday, some time getting together for a few-live-a-shots.

    Cheers All.

    • big flavor said, on December 24, 2011 at 7:08 pm

      Clown— there are maybe 3 or 4 internet people i will move my life around to meet. You are one of them.

  14. Big flavor said, on December 24, 2011 at 7:49 pm

    Denny, go try some of nipper’s “Ho Ho Ho” bullshit. It might save you tomorrow…

  15. unca_chuck said, on December 24, 2011 at 7:53 pm

    Funny thing is, once Elway gives Tebow the nominal thumbs up he sucks balls.

    The tide will turn very qickly in Denver. Son of God or no . . .

  16. twinfan1 said, on December 24, 2011 at 8:42 pm

    I didn’t “run away”, Chuckles. I haven’t been posting on your blog during the game for 3 weeks now. I decided to leave it to Denny and those of you who enjoy his act. And you get rid of me for 3 hours. You’re a lucky guy.

  17. unca_chuck said, on December 24, 2011 at 8:46 pm

    Whatever, Mike.

  18. ewisco said, on December 24, 2011 at 9:12 pm

    merry christmas you knuckleheads.

  19. unca_chuck said, on December 24, 2011 at 9:18 pm

    600 posts? Shit, I’ll reach 70 on mine tomorrow . . .

  20. twinfan1 said, on December 24, 2011 at 9:39 pm

    Well, whatever you celebrate, enjoy. If this will help: Rowand has a about a million bucks to spend on stocking stuffers this year..

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