A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball

4 Underdogs, 4 teams with a Chance to Win (or at least cover)

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on January 13, 2012

*****Hey dudes– no update today. Keeping football front and center and squarely on the brain. Check out Chuck’s Blog for in-game commentary and *analysis*.

Ninersforever.com……….*******

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Taking a break from baseball to talk about this weekend’s 4 big football games. I have looked closely at all 4 and can find a reason to be optimistic about all 4 underdogs—

Denver +13.5 vs New England

Betting thoughts: Denver’s defense is decent and New England’s is horrible–that reason alone is reason enough to take the 13.5 points…….

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New York Giants +7.5 vs Green Bay

Betting thoughts: The Giants might have the most balanced team left in the playoffs (in terms of offense and defense). The extra 1/2 pt is huge. And Green Bay’s defense sucks. Eli’s been there, done that. Take the Giants and the points and the money line of +280 looks delicious and worth at least 20% of whatever you bet on the points

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Houston +7.5 vs Baltimore

Betting thoughts: Against a team like Baltimore who has a below average offense and a defense on it’s last legs in terms of *last stands*, that extra half point is big. I think Baltimore wins but Houston’s defense will smother that offense. I’d take the 7.5 here, though I like this game least of the 4………

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Niners +4 vs New Orleans

Betting Thoughts: I would take the  Niners all day long +4 pts but the +180 on the money line is a gift from God. New Orleans has put up amazing offensive numbers this season but almost every game they have done so has been against one of the bottom third defenses in the league. In fact, they haven’t faced a good defense all year except Houston and that was at the beginning of the year. They haven’t faced a top defense all season long. I think Candlestick will be rocking like it’s never rocked before and the noise and a defense that they haven’t seen all year will stuff the run and pressure Brees into a few picks and at least 4 sacks. Our offense will manage the ball, further frustrating an opponent that wants the ball for 60 minutes but will get it for less than half that, for sure. Niners are going to Green Bay baby. The only question in my mind is that it might not be Green Bay but actually Candlestick instead vs The Giants—that could absolutely happen……..

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As I’ve said many times before: Good coaches win. Great coaches cover. Decide if the coach is *great* and go with that…..

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  1. willieD said, on January 13, 2012 at 7:12 am

    Only reason I think NO pulls it out is because weakest part of entire Niners team is the secondary. Good QBs can beat any D and exploit a weakness. I think it will be a close game maybe decided at the end; special teams could have a lot to do with it. Turnovers also, a huge ad for Niners all year.
    My buddy the Skins fan likes Giants too, but maybe that’s because they whipped his hated rivals Dallas twice. I don’t think anyone beats GB.
    My sunday is screwed up, with a b-ball game at noon. Two years ago the league where I coach, for the first time ever in 18 years, scheduled games on Super Bowl Sunday. Problem was, no refs wanted to work it and they were scrambling big time. We got home in time to watch Brees out duel Peyton and win one for Nawlins.

  2. gianthead said, on January 13, 2012 at 7:30 am

    1) I’ve liked the Giants all week, but I think Vegas is telling us something with the line at -7.5. While more people have been betting the Giants, the line has not moved. So either big money is riding on GB or Vegas is trying to fool people into taking the Giants at that spread. So I am going big on the Packers!

    2) Right analysis on the Baltimore-Houston game. This is a game I think the dawg can pulloff an upset….

    3) As a friend said, you have Tebow and Jesus against Bellicheck and Satan. I am going with Satan. Bellichek does not let up on teams. They may be up 20 points on Denver and he will still go for their throats. This I think is the safest bet of the weekend. Christ did still get crucified…get the nails ready for Tebow…

    4) Regardless of our hearts, you have to look at the Niner game solely as a gambler, I think the Saints are Super Bowl bound and Brees is just too god-damned much for any defense right now. I can see Saints scoring 30, but have a hard time seeing the Niners offense keep up, 30-20 seems about right for the Saints.

  3. ChiPower said, on January 13, 2012 at 8:48 am

    Well, I was surprised to see the lines had not moved (from earlier in the week). Here’s my shot at this weekend’s games.

    Pack – Giants, Pack minus 7.5. I think the Pack wins this game but have NY covering. I predict something along the lines 34-31 GB.

    Ravens – Texans, Ravens minus 7.5. Just can’t see Yates getting it done in Baltimore. If the Ravens go up 10-0 or something similar…I just cannot see Yates mounting a comeback. Ravens are just too tough at home. My call – Ravens 24-6 over the Texans.

    No one is giving the Niners a chance…and I like that. If the Niners play the way they have all year (control the ball, protect Alex/establish the run, win the turnover game, and get some pressure on Brees), I see the Niners winning this game. Special teams (field position) will be huge in this game, too. I’m going 26-24, Niners. And no, I am not drinking the kool-aid…I just see the Niners getting it done, at home.

    Most will think I am crazy here, but I will back it up with some solid stats. New England minus 13.5 against the Broncs. Yes, the Pats have Brady and his assortment of weapons on offense, but their D is atrocious. They Suck! I see a shootout here, and in this one, I am calling for a big upset…30-27 Broncs. Here are the stats:

    Brady is 15-22 against the spread as a home fave of -9 or more.
    Brady is 6-16 ATS as home fave of 9 or more since November 2007.
    Teams entering the playoffs on a winning streak of five games or more, as home favorites off a bye are 1-7 since 2002.

    I’m following the trends and going with the upset.

    Not a huge rap fan, but have you guys seen the Bailey video (Whose Got it Better Than Us? NOBODY)? Hers are two flavors…I like the first one, best.

    GO NINERS!

  4. gianthead said, on January 13, 2012 at 8:55 am

    Saints line has moved to -4…if you go with my 4 team parlay, $75 pays $1000…thank me later…

  5. twinfan1 said, on January 13, 2012 at 9:23 am

    New England ( T-Blow had one of his best games against them, and lost by 18)
    Ravens
    Green Bay
    Niners

  6. twinfan1 said, on January 13, 2012 at 9:37 am

    NO has exactly one apparent edge-Brees. But that is actually negligible;
    Brees road: 17 TD 8 INT 100.7 QBR
    Smith home: 12 TD 3 INT 99.8 QBR
    Brees still gets the edge based on postseason experience but it’s not as great as perceived. I could see this getting down to Ginn vs. Sproles and Hunter vs. Sproles…

    • TedSpe said, on January 13, 2012 at 10:03 am

      Is Ginn healthy?

      • ChiPower said, on January 13, 2012 at 10:42 am

        From today’s “Mercury News”… “Ginn said he is 100 percent and ready to play Saturday after missing the past two games. McDonald said he is good to go, as well.”

      • TedSpe said, on January 13, 2012 at 11:34 am

        Thanks

  7. Nipper said, on January 13, 2012 at 10:06 am

    Put pressure on Brees or go home.

    • TedSpe said, on January 13, 2012 at 11:34 am

      They are home

  8. Macdog said, on January 13, 2012 at 10:06 am

    Being a Giants fan of course I’m taking Big Blue, but there are reasons for concern other than going against a 15-1 team. It seems waaaaaaaaay too many people like the Giants’ chances to win outright, always the kiss of death, and the Giants themselves appear to be overly confident, instead of just laying low for a game vs. the defending Super Bowl champion. And reports out of Green Bay say the Packers are as healthy as they’ve been over the last two seasons. I don’t know how the Giants can stop Rodgers, but they did show last time that they can keep pace, hopefully this time it’s Eli who gets the ball last.

    BTW G-Head, I think the line opened at 9.5.

    Niners to win outright. I’m shocked that a team with road losses vs. the Rams and Bucs is a 4-point favorite for a playoff game vs. arguably the NFL’s best defense (the Chiefs were pretty damn good in the end, too). As Twin has mentioned before, the Saints are a completely different team when they’re out of that ‘Dome. The Saints will have their moments, but I liked Flav’s breakdown, Niners will make it very tough on Brees.

    Chi, some interesting numbers on the Pats-Broncs game and very tough to ignore. I will anyway, Pats win big again, sparing us all another week of Tebow-mania.

    Ravens to cover. Texans have probably gone as far as possible without Schaub, and the Ravens finally get a home playoff game after being on the road the last three years.

  9. unca_chuck said, on January 13, 2012 at 11:14 am

    Like I said on my blog:

    Niners over NO 31-20 (cover)
    NE over Tebows 34-18 (cover)
    Giants over GB 31-30 (cover)
    Balt over Hou 17-14 (don’t cover)

    NO has a lot going against them. Outdoors, grass, travel, short week, facing a tough run defense, facing a rest and ready team.

    NE does what they did last time, and that’s run away with the game.

    I think the Giants pull the upset. GB is weak on their O line, and NY’s D line is brutal. See A lot of sacks for Rodgers.

    Balt? Dont know, don;t care much. Netier team ttrills me at all.

    • Macdog said, on January 13, 2012 at 11:20 am

      Short week? Tebows yes, but not the Saints.

      • unca_chuck said, on January 13, 2012 at 11:55 am

        Shit. Yer right. NO played last Saturday . . .

        Still they are the ones travelling . . .

  10. unca_chuck said, on January 13, 2012 at 11:15 am

    Edit!!!

  11. PawlieKokonuts said, on January 13, 2012 at 11:54 am

    Even though some of my cousins were, um, “connected,” allegedly, that is, rumored, so I heard, but did not ask, I don’t get any of these gambling terms. (Vigorish, anyone?)

  12. blade3colorado said, on January 13, 2012 at 12:07 pm

    Hey, ya mugs! I´m checking in from Panama City, Panama . . . I just got back from the Miraflores locks (Panama Canal) and it was quite interesting . . . A large container ship was going through it. I went with a couple – one was from Germany and his girlfriend was from Costa Rica, also her son. Staying at this Hostal is a great way to meet people because everyone has breakfast every day together. Also met a couple that just got out of college and are teaching in San Jose, Costa Rica – we shared a cab on the way back to the hostal a few minutes ago (the couple I was with got separated from me and I met this couple who recognized me) . . . Bottom line is that I keep on saving on cab rides because I am sharing them. HAHAHA.

    Very hot! Over 90 degrees, with humidity. Ugh. Last night after I got back from the Marina, the americans I went with didn´t feel like walking much, so I went on a long walk . . . nice and cool during the evening and morning. No insects, which is good.

    I didn´t get to the downtown area yet, so I will do that tomorrow. After that, I will head to Boguete by bus.

    By the by, I SAW A SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS FAN WEARING A BASEBALL HAT WITH THE SF EMBLEM AND STUPID ME DIDN´T TAKE A PICTURE! DAMMIT! HOWEVER, WE DID THE KNOWING HEAD NOD AND A FIST BUMP AFTER I IDENTIFIED MYSELF AS A GIANTS FAN. 🙂

    • unca_chuck said, on January 13, 2012 at 1:30 pm

      You by yourself, Blade? You gonna rub any more sharks?

      • blade3colorado said, on January 13, 2012 at 2:57 pm

        Probably not on this trip Chuck. I do plan on SCUBA diving in Boca De Toros (sp?) and Costa Rica . . . probably a month from now. Yes, alone right now, but a friend (Julie) is joining me in February.

      • DJLoo said, on January 13, 2012 at 5:44 pm

        A man…a plan…..a canal…………………Julie

    • Flavor said, on January 13, 2012 at 2:55 pm

      sounds like fun. Forward any pictures if you can. Stay outta trouble!

      • blade3colorado said, on January 13, 2012 at 2:59 pm

        No kidding . . . There are neighborhoods that you don´t want to be in after evening. Someone you probably have heard of – comes from there and made something of himself. A guy named Roberto Duran. Not a very nice person . . .

      • blade3colorado said, on January 13, 2012 at 3:03 pm

        I forgot my USB connection to the Canon I bought. I can still take pictures with my Samsung Tablet, but it looks stupid . . . sort of like someone putting a book to their head (Think Karnac the Magician from the Johhny Carson Show).

      • PawlieKokonuts said, on January 13, 2012 at 7:42 pm

        those neighborhoods are prob. exactly where I’d gravitate to; THEY KEEP SUCKING ME IN. Remember Silvio Dante saying that in The Sopranos imitating The Godfather?

    • PawlieKokonuts said, on January 13, 2012 at 7:43 pm

      the SF cap sighting would have been the highlight of my trip; stay bug-less, my friend

  13. shaman138 said, on January 13, 2012 at 1:28 pm

    AFC Champ. game= Ravens @ Pats

    NFC Champ. game= 49ers @ Packers

  14. SanDawg said, on January 13, 2012 at 2:26 pm

    I like the Giants plus the points. I respect what Tebow has done and dig watching him play, but I think the Pats are gonna win by 20. I also don’t feel great about the Niners covering—-though I am wearing my Jeff Garcia jersey as I type this.

    …Flav ate that hot dog. (…and thats the rest of the story.)

  15. Nipper said, on January 13, 2012 at 5:07 pm

    Tebow is finished for this season. Sure he’s a good guy but he’s still not a good QB by anyone’s standards.

  16. zumie said, on January 13, 2012 at 5:20 pm

    You have to give the Denver coaching staff credit for finding a way to get something from Tebow. I still can’t believe Pittsburgh gave up an 8-yard QB draw for a touchdown. It’s like teams keep getting surprised by how hard he is to tackle. I keep thinking some team is going to really crunch him, but it never happens.
    And then the coaching staff mixes in some long passes, because Tebow is so dreadful on the shorter stuff. The long passes he can just crank it up and let it fly, and hope that he gets a spiral instead of a dead duck. Once in a while he gets a spiral and connects and that was enough against Pittsburgh.

  17. DJLoo said, on January 13, 2012 at 5:57 pm

    Saints (-4)
    Broncos (+13.5)
    Ravens (-7.5)
    Packers (-7.5)

    Good news for you Niner fans. I suck at this. Xootsuit was a pretty good picker around here.
    Where the fuck is he?

    • Flavor said, on January 13, 2012 at 8:14 pm

      He bailed. Told me he was leaving. Went to Jon Dowd’s blog. Got tired of the drama here.

  18. zumie said, on January 13, 2012 at 6:23 pm

    This guy gets pretty deep into yesterday’s topic:
    http://sports-glutton.com/2011/06/05/a-day-at-att-park/

    • zumie said, on January 13, 2012 at 6:28 pm

      I think I’ve seen all of those except Edsel Ford Fong’s. I don’t remember seeing that one.

  19. zumie said, on January 13, 2012 at 6:30 pm

    Thanks to Snarkk, for the Adam Morrison info. I couldn’t even think of the guy’s last name. I guess there was good reason I never saw him play in an NBA game.

  20. Alleykat said, on January 13, 2012 at 6:48 pm

    As Michael Buffer would say, “Let’s get ready to RUMBLE”
    Jim Harbaugh’s payback game to that SCAB PLAYER SEAN PAYTON.
    Harbaugh and his coaching staff “Walk on Water”
    sending the Saints back to their Bubba Gump Shrimp Boats Forrest.
    49ers 27-23
    End of the God Squad as Brady will destroy Denver final Patriots 45-10
    Ravens to much playoff experience, and a rookie QB Yates no chance ….. Final Ravens 24-3

    Real good matchup…Green Bay…..Giants
    Gotta go with Green Bay, Rodgers is just better then Manning and it will show on Sunday.
    Final Packers 35-21.

  21. DJLoo said, on January 13, 2012 at 7:06 pm

    I thought it was a little too quiet in Yankeeland…

  22. PawlieKokonuts said, on January 13, 2012 at 7:45 pm

    Can you picture Blade in the middle of a scene like the movie DESPERADO, and ending up w/ the Salma Hayek character?

    • blade3colorado said, on January 14, 2012 at 6:50 am

      I wish . . . By the by, I think I am not going to be taking the bus to Columbia from Panama at the end of my trip. Why? See the movie, Heart of Darkness . . . Number one – The Pan American Highway doesn´t go into Columbia (no road does). Number two – This is where civil war combatants hide out and take a break from the war in Columbia. Number three – The jungle is so thick that you better take a guide, machete, and ensure you have pills for malaria, dengue and yellow fever. Oh, related to that, the mosquitos are as big as moths. Number four – The natives just recently turned in their blowguns for more lethal weaponry . . . and they use it. Gulp.

      I saw a bird yesterday called a Harpy Eagle . . . Straight out of a Steven Speilberg dinosaur move.

  23. ewisco said, on January 13, 2012 at 8:54 pm

    the people that know the stick know that it isn’t all about the weather, it’s about the tide. High tide is at 3 tomorrow. that means that the water table is going to be just under the field. the second half could get ugly.

    you heard it here first.

    • Flavor said, on January 13, 2012 at 9:02 pm

      that’s a fantastically fantastic angle. I will pay attention to that………
      It’s not really changing how I see the game, I still see the Niners winning 24-21, something like that. But dude, that’s a great post……..

  24. unca chuck said, on January 13, 2012 at 10:23 pm

    I was on the field after the 1994 playoff game, and high tide was some time in the afternoon. It was a quagmire in the south end zone. Like 3″ of mud you’d sink into. I’m sure the drainage is better now, but still, that field gets pretty bad.

  25. St said, on January 14, 2012 at 7:53 am

    Ball control means Gore needs a big game. I don’t know if he’s 100%. I would feel better if they had a big strong wide out. First playoff for Alex Smith and their OL? Colliver Williams Ginn are 50-50.
    My gut says NO by 2 TD’s. Hoping I’m wrong.

  26. zumie said, on January 14, 2012 at 9:05 am

    For any of you that had the Warriors/Heat game blacked out like I did, the NBA network has started replaying the game right now.

    • willieD said, on January 14, 2012 at 9:22 am

      Great finish, check out Nate the great. Heat didn’t fare so well out West, after early going vs. Warriors.
      48 minutes is a long time; shot clock in HS games now is so much more fun. As the Big O said, play defense, rebound, and take care of the ball. Offense will come from somewhere.

  27. St said, on January 14, 2012 at 9:30 am

    Isn’t is Tebow time?

    No one liked the Kwame pickup, but they will sorely miss his size in the middle. Biedrens is freaking useless.

    • St said, on January 14, 2012 at 9:36 am

      I was misinformed. Den at 5. Should know better than to listen to my Sister.

  28. DJLoo said, on January 14, 2012 at 11:39 am

    Oddball stat of the day:

    Fred Lynn hit exactly 23 HRS in 4 consecutive years (1984-1987).
    He had built up to that by hitting 21 in 1982 and 22 in 1983.
    Then he topped it off by hitting 25 in 1988.

    OK back to sleep…

  29. ewisco said, on January 14, 2012 at 11:53 am

    nfl films just did a feature about the most bitter post season rivalries: dallas vs. sf. Lord knows i hate me some cowboys but green bay used to really piss me off. f-ing favre would come in and beat us like red-headed step children and then go to dallas and get killed. every freaking year!! i was just telling the boys that you just can’t do that in my world.

    blood starting to heat up as kick off approaches. i think i need to go re-hang the heavy bag.

  30. blade3colorado said, on January 14, 2012 at 5:17 pm

    Not exactly how I wanted to “watch” the game (via ESPN gamecast) at an internet cafe . . . albeit, you should have seen all the Panamanians giving me weird looks when I did my “Flap Shuffle” after this sequence of events . . .

    D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Jennings, Holder-A.Lee.

    3rd and 4 at NO 14:
    Alex Smith pass short middle to V.Davis for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    2nd and 4 at NO 14:
    Alex Smith spiked the ball to stop the clock. A.Smith spiked the ball.

    1st and 10 at NO 20:
    (Shotgun) Alex Smith pass short left to F.Gore to NO 14 for 6 yards (S.Shanle). Caught at NO 20. 6-yds YAC

    2nd and 10 at SF 33:
    (Shotgun) Alex Smith pass deep left to V.Davis to NO 20 for 47 yards (M.Jenkins). Caught at NO 45. 20-yds YAC

    1st and 10 at SF 33:
    Alex Smith pass incomplete deep right to B.Swain.

    2nd and 3 at SF 22:
    (No Huddle, Shotgun) Alex Smith pass short middle to F.Gore to SF 33 for 11 yards (R.Harper). Caught at SF 25. 8-yds YAC

    1st and 10 at SF 15:
    (Shotgun) Alex Smith pass short left to F.Gore to SF 22 for 7 yards (R.Harper). Caught at SF 11. 11-yds YAC

  31. twinfan1 said, on January 14, 2012 at 5:20 pm

    Wow!

    • blade3colorado said, on January 14, 2012 at 5:23 pm

      Yeah, me too Mike . . . Unbelievable end . . . wish I could have seen it on tv.

      • Flavor said, on January 14, 2012 at 7:08 pm

        epic.

  32. St said, on January 14, 2012 at 5:27 pm

    Great game. Happy for Smith. That was Montana Young stuff.

  33. '49ers bandwagon buddy said, on January 14, 2012 at 5:29 pm

    How has ASmith come on this season?
    wadda game with the good guys winning

  34. dirtnrocksnreno said, on January 14, 2012 at 7:15 pm

    Who Dat? Niners Baby!

  35. ewisco said, on January 14, 2012 at 7:21 pm

    I’ve been an alex apologist forever. it’s good to be me right now. but even better, it’s good to be a niner fan. i posted on chuck’s blog that i was walking around with a huge grin when i realized that i was basking. it feels really good to bask again. Bay Area sports, resurgent.

  36. TedSpe said, on January 14, 2012 at 7:45 pm

    Tebow:
    Father, why have you forsaken me?

  37. zumie said, on January 14, 2012 at 8:06 pm

    Actually a classy move from the usually unclassy Belicik to not have Brady throw for that 7th touchdown pass, which would have been running up the score, and would have broken Steve Young’s playoff game TD record (6).

    • zumie said, on January 14, 2012 at 8:19 pm

      Well, nothing classy about that quick kick punt.

  38. zumie said, on January 14, 2012 at 8:35 pm

    “Brady will destroy Denver final Patriots 45-10”

    Alleykat nails it! Well done!

    • Flavor said, on January 14, 2012 at 9:11 pm

      He DID declare that. That’s fucking awesome.

  39. zumie said, on January 14, 2012 at 8:56 pm

    Dallas defeated the Sac Kings 99-60 tonight. Yes, that’s actually the score.

  40. DJLoo said, on January 14, 2012 at 9:47 pm

    There was a game about 25 years ago in which Sacramento fell behind the Lakers 29-0 I think. After the first quarter it was a more respectable 40-4…

  41. DJLoo said, on January 14, 2012 at 10:02 pm

    I almost got laid tonight.

  42. DJLoo said, on January 14, 2012 at 10:32 pm

    It killed the mood when I went outside the bar to vomit.

    • unca_chuck said, on January 14, 2012 at 10:44 pm

      That shouldn’t slow your roll. As long as yer quick about it.

    • snarkk said, on January 14, 2012 at 11:11 pm

      Was that because of the beers, or the looks of the chick?…

      • DJLoo said, on January 15, 2012 at 9:36 am

        the latter…


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