A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball

Scoring Runs: Speed? Power? You Have to Have At Least One

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on April 1, 2012

As I said several times at the beginning of last season and throughout it, we were in big trouble as an offense without any speed and without any power. We scored 570 runs as a team. St Louis scored 192 more than we did (762). Β Why the gap? Well, we were slow (14th in NL in stolen bases) and weak (11th in NL in HR’s), a pretty bad combo no matter what game you’re playing. Yes, we had injuries last year but every team deals with them and you can’t use them as an excuse. Bottom line: our team had no identity last year. This year, that’s all changed. And our *name* is *Speed*……..

It’s exciting to think of how fast this team *could* be this year. Part of that is a huge leap of faith because I’m considering The White Shark and Burriss in the mix. But if lightning strikes and those two can somehow take their spring performances and transfer them to the major leagues then we have a team that is going to have opposing pitchers and catchers nervous, twitchy and distracted—and the added benefit of that is that when you get the battery distracted you get them to make mistakes and major league hitters pound mistakes. So it’s not just stolen bases to look forward to but better pitches to hit as well…….

We stole 85 bases last year. If Pagan, Cabrera, The White Shark and Burriss all played a full season they collectively could steal 130+ bases. If that happens, we will *run* past 700 runs scored on the year the same way this horse blasted past Bertrando in the ’91 Juvenile:

“and Arazi runs right by him!!!!” is still one of the great Breeders Cup calls of all time…….

But I digress…….

Look, I know it’s spring training and we could look back on this thread in August and laugh out loud at it. Burriss and Blanco could be selling used cars by then. For that matter, Pagan could be, too.

But, at least to start the season, we look to have the fastest team we’ve had in years. Maybe ever (in San Francisco). San Diego stole 170 bases last year and even with *The Dream* of those four fast cats running wild all year I doubt we could eclipse that number. But we’d come close……

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  1. blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:33 am

    Great post Flav . . . This team actually fits the “Phone Park” perfectly, i.e., we finally have an “on paper” perfect mix of speed, defense, and pitching that our Park rewards. No idea how to find my post where I said exactly that approximately a month ago. Twin put up a line-up yesterday that will accurately approximate what we see at the beginning of the season:

    Pagan CF
    Cabrera RF
    Sandoval 3B
    Posey C
    Huff LF
    Belt 1B
    Burriss 2B
    Crawford SS

    My eyes keep drifting over to Belt, Burris, and Crawford at the end of the lineup . . . All have very good speed, which leads us to Pagan and Cabrera at the top of the order, with excellent speed. Whether rallies start at the beginning of the lineup or the end (less likely), we have a team that can run. By the by, Sandoval and Posey (at least before his injury) are not exactly fast, but they are not slow either. Call me Pollyanna, but I love this team and I think 700 runs plus is more than possible.

    • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:38 am

      Almost forgot about Blanco . . . If Blanco gets “plugged” into the lineup, I am down with that too. My basic point is that I am tired of fielding a team of “watching wet paint” players, as we did last year. Yawn. Give me some excitement – which this team potentially has in spades.

  2. Nipper said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:33 am

    Another winning season! Yeah!

    • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:33 am

      That’s the spirit Nip! πŸ™‚

  3. St said, on April 1, 2012 at 8:10 am

    HItting LHP and having enough RH bats seems to be a big concern among all the local scribes today. Overblown or legit concern?

    • twinfan1 said, on April 1, 2012 at 8:19 am

      Using Blade’s LU above (and it’s their best)- 4 switch hitters, 3 lefties, 1 RH.
      My bench: Hector, Nate, Blanco, Arias, Theriot.

      Answer: Overblown

  4. twinfan1 said, on April 1, 2012 at 8:11 am

    Injuries *ARE* an excuse- it’s the team that shouldn’t complain- smart baseball people recognize the difference that the injurires fo a given team can make.
    “Every team deals with them”-well, superficialy that’s a correrct statement. That infers that all are equal, which is BS, of course. The injuries decimated this team and put them at a disadvantage and their rivals for the division- AZ suffered far fewer, and very little to key players. It’s why we weren’t in the playoffs-period.Identity- sure they had one- the walking wounded.And despite all that, Bochy kept them playing right to the bell and they finished just 4 out of the postseaon- a remarkable year, really.
    This year? They will have more speed but it’s the middle of the order that should be the biggest diff- Sandoval, Posey, Huff, and Belt should give us power to be reckoned with finally.( if the brain trust has a brain and keeps Belt-and at 1st Base…

  5. dirtnrocksnomo said, on April 1, 2012 at 8:38 am

    Just saw that Zito is hitting the 60 day DL. Medical staff suspects elbow problems.

    • Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 8:54 am

      Don’t get me excited with false hope. If you’re gonna tell me he’s out, go all the way and tell me the fucker got run over by a bus.

      • Nipper said, on April 1, 2012 at 9:17 am

        Run over him twice just to make sure.

    • St said, on April 1, 2012 at 8:54 am

      Are you kidding?

    • St said, on April 1, 2012 at 8:56 am

      More likely a knee with all that crouching.

      • Nipper said, on April 1, 2012 at 9:19 am

        Paying Rowand not to play, paying Zito to perhaps not to play…….is there a trend hear?

      • Nipper said, on April 1, 2012 at 9:20 am

        ….here

  6. blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 8:47 am

    WE HAVE THE PERFECT MANAGER TO MANAGE OUR SPEED!

    I predict that Bruce Bochy will allow our guys the green light in almost every instance (unless the player gets picked off stupidly, e.g., Pagan recently).

    Why? History my friends.

    1995 . . . Stolen bases 124 (Finley, Roberts, Ausmus (yes, Ausmus), and Gwynn).

    1997 . . . Stolen bases 140 (Veras and Henderson). Note: 795 runs scored, albeit, pitching staff gave up 891.

    1999 . . . Stolen bases 174 (Veras, Jackson, Sanders, Owens and Rivera). 710 runs scored, pitching staff gave up 781. Padres were 1st in steals that year.

    Believe me, we WILL run this year.

  7. Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 8:55 am

    700 runs? I thought I was drinking the good stuff. You guys need to simmer down now.

    • twinfan1 said, on April 1, 2012 at 10:23 am

      You need to know what you’re talking about. This is a better hitting team than 2010- a team that scored 697. I see you’re easing into your doomer act. How long before they don’t deserve to win?

  8. Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 9:22 am

    Haven’t even checked Dirt’s claim on Internet but I do know what day it is πŸ™‚

    • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 9:25 am

      ditto

      • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 9:26 am

        Next.

    • willieD said, on April 1, 2012 at 9:41 am

      seriously tho…suppose it were true, or if SF really did release him at some point in near future. Would it have to be contingent on surkamp, or signing an FA?
      Btw, just fyi, listening to flems opening salvo yesterday pre game, he counted Posey showing as lead bright story of ST, saying he “passed all tests with flying colors.”

  9. Alleykat said, on April 1, 2012 at 9:35 am

    Giants want Zito to alter his stance(more upright) after his fantastic ST work with Tom House has produced 7.91 era 13/12 K/BB in 19 innings.
    Guess his crouch is perfect for the shower at San Quenin,but not as effective in the big leagues.

    • Nipper said, on April 1, 2012 at 9:38 am

      Zito to the DL for retooling! 60 days sounds about right and then the door!

    • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 10:43 am

      the only thing I would say in even mild defense of the crouch is that he can’t do it out of the stretch and he’s been in the stretch pretty much 24/7 in his last two implosion starts……

  10. dirtnrocksnomo said, on April 1, 2012 at 9:37 am

    01 April 2012 = Aprils fools. Come on. Get in the spirit fellas.

  11. Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 10:08 am

    Hey Dirt, I’m down with a good 4-1 joke but you went too far. 60 days with “suspected elbow problems?” negative. But thanks for the attempt!
    I’m kicking around a ca lotto prank for my Facebook community.

  12. dirtnrocksnomo said, on April 1, 2012 at 10:23 am

    Yeah, I should have gone with my initial 15 days with a visit to Dr Andrews.

  13. Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 10:39 am

    not sure if you guys read much of the Boston Globe but here is there 2012 list of *best managers* in baseball. It’s a fucking joke, as you would expect. Bochy managed Ron Washington into complete *blow job* position in the World Series and yet Nick Cafardo ranks Wash 7th and Bochy 8th………
    http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2012/04/01/ranking_the_major_league_managers/

  14. willieD said, on April 1, 2012 at 10:45 am

    M. Lurie was just talking about that list on radio…ozzie guillen in the top 10 seems quite a reach.
    But, the real reason I want to mention Lurie is he was just extolling the virtues of….marlon byrd as a Giant. Says he’s the RH bat we need in the OF, and if Huff was at 1b, then the OF should be melk byrd nate. We’ve talked about byrd for years now, I just wonder how much is left in the tank and whether he could play CF at ATT. He’s also due $6.5 mill; if Brown proves to be the real deal everyone thinks he is, would acquiring byrd make any sense? What would you have to give the cubs in return?

    • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 10:56 am

      I wouldn’t go anywhere near Byrd and I don’t think the Giants would either until they found out about Blanco.

      • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 11:02 am

        Byrd sucks big time . . . Isn’t even half the player he was in 2009 (and that isn’t saying much). Lurie must have been hitting the pipe when he brought up that gem. Just being a Cub is two strikes against the player.

  15. twinfan1 said, on April 1, 2012 at 10:56 am

    So they bail on Pagan before the regular season starts? Pagan-Blanco-Brown is just fine for a depth chart. Melky-Byrd-Nate? Are you serious, Willie? That’s a terrible OF.
    We do not *need* a RH in the OF. That’s ridiculous. We have 4 switch hitters plus Posey- that’s 5 in the LU. Lurie is senile.

    • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 11:04 am

      Lurie is an idiot.

      • Nipper said, on April 1, 2012 at 12:25 pm

        Twin and BF agree!

    • willieD said, on April 1, 2012 at 11:09 am

      wasn’t me, it was lurie. Byrd’s numbers have been in decline for 3 yrs, he’ll be 35 this august, and he actually drove in less runs/less slugging/less OPS than Nate last year. Lot of people like this guy Lurie, he justs seems to say some ridiculous shit every time i hear him.

  16. Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 11:07 am

    byrd’s had a single season where he hit 20 bombs and that’s clearly seen as an outlier at this point. He really doesn’t have much speed, either. So he’s a no power/no speed guy who costs 6 million this year. Even if the Cubs ate most of that I wouldn’t want him……..

  17. Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 11:35 am

    The only Cubs OFer I would want would be Soriano. Oh wait, he’s already on my fantasy team.
    Better still. I’m already rooting for him this year. Might as well be with him wearing the orange and black.
    30 HRs and 90 RBI for Soriano this year. Book it!

    • twinfan1 said, on April 1, 2012 at 1:07 pm

      91 RBi and he’d compensate for his all around suckitude…
      Belt at first, Huff in left again.

      • Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 1:21 pm

        Are you saying you like my Soriano idea? Must be an April Fools prank.

  18. Bozo said, on April 1, 2012 at 12:38 pm

    “Bochy managed Ron Washington into complete *blow job* position in the World Series..”

    Flav do you ever qualify yourself for POTD? If you do, I’d vote for that one.

    • Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 1:01 pm

      How’s your fantasy team shaping up? I’m about to offer Ed from across the pond a blockbuster trade.
      He really wants Joey Bats, but he’s gonna have to give up more than he’s been offering. After he sees my proposal he’ll probably tell me to go kiss the Duchess of Cambridge’s ass. Where to I go stand in line?

  19. Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 1:37 pm

    Denny I offered you lincecum for Grienke and never heard a word. Don’t want any giants on your team this year?

    • Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 1:44 pm

      Flav, I declined it this morning. I noted that Timmy would need to get a goddamn haircut to play for my team.
      I come from the George Steinbrenner School of ownership.

      • Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 1:48 pm

        Not to mention that I think Greinke will put up better numbers across the board except for ERA.

      • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 2:40 pm

        I have Timmy and Greinke ranked right around the same spot (though in almost all drafts Timmy is going in rd 3, Grienke in round 4. I have Timmy on 3 teams and don’t have Grienke on any and since I think Grienke has a decent shot at the NL CY this year, I thought I’d take a shot. I’ve been surprised at how little love TImmy is getting from the Flap fantasy crew. I’ve offered him up in 3 trades, always for a player with a worst ADP, and all 3 trades have gotten rejected.
        That’s cool–must have something to do with my opponents seeing a trade off from THE REIGNING FLAP FANTASY LEAGUE CHAMPION and getting too scared in their boots to pull the trigger. πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

      • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 3:14 pm

        Del Mar is getting offered the Lincecums of the World . . . Meanwhile, I get offered aliens like Mat Latos (who plays out of that pitchers park in Cincy). Ha.

        πŸ™‚

    • Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 3:40 pm

      Who has Latos? I like Latos. He’s a no good bastard much like myself, but I think he’s gonna have a fine yr up in Cincy. He did get roughed up a bit tonight by the ChiSox. But I think he’s a keeper…Much like my “sleeper” SS that I plucked off the WW — Zach Cozart. Hitting 2nd in the Reds lineup and in front of Votto? I’ll take a flier on that scenario…

      • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 3:49 pm

        Flav, meet Dennis.

  20. Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 1:54 pm

    All this Soriano talk has me excited. How much? I took him off my trading block. You guys can’t have him.
    I’m sure you’re all reaching for some Kleenex now. πŸ˜€

  21. James said, on April 1, 2012 at 2:01 pm

    There isn’t much of a correlation between SBs and runs scored. In 2011, the percentage of SBs per 9 innings was the highest since 1999 in the NL, and the number of runs scored the lowest since 1992.

    The Padres scored 593 runs last year.

    SBs had nothing to do with the run totals for the 95, 97, and 99 Padres. In fact, they had terrible success percentages in each of those years, which means the running game actually cost the team runs:

    SB 124 CS 46 OPS 731
    SB 140 CS 60 OPS 749
    SB 174 CS 67 OPS 725

    OPS explains why they scored as many runs as they did in those years. In 1999, the Padres were second to last in runs scored in the NL.

    • James said, on April 1, 2012 at 2:39 pm

      Should have done more checking before posting. Those percentages are *not* terrible — they are very good compared to league avgs. I used a rule of thumb stat that a success % of 80 is what makes an effective base stealer, i.e., success % below that figure does not have a positive effect on runs scored.

      • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 2:42 pm

        James— if you have neither speed nor strength (as we suffered through last year) there is definitely a correlation between no speed/no pop and sucking shit offensively……
        We still are hurting from a pop standpoint but the theory that 4 guys running wild on the basepaths and putting pressure on the opposing pitcher/catcher all season long at least gives us a chance to score runs this season. That’s all I’m sayin’…….

      • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 3:02 pm

        As I noted in my post James, they also gave up a lot of runs (for the two teams I cited), i.e., our pitching staff is head and tails above the ones they had. My point was that if you give Bochy gruel, he will still make do and make a nice stew out of it. Equally important, he allowed a bunch of no names (exception being Henderson) to run . . . umm, our SF positional players more or less fit the bill.

      • James said, on April 1, 2012 at 3:04 pm

        BF, having team speed is obviously a good thing and will help the offense. But there’s no simply no evidence that stealing lots of bases will help your cause over an entire season when you make an out 30% of the time you try. See

        http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2607

    • twinfan1 said, on April 1, 2012 at 3:03 pm

      Of the top 8 in SB the NL last year, only the DBacks made the postseason. The other playoff teams were all in the bottom half. Sacrifice bunts don’t show any correlation to success, either. Two of the play off teams were in the top 8, 4 were in bottom 8. Much of “small ball” is for small thinkers…

      • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 3:24 pm

        yes, but where did those other playoff teams rank in terms of power?

      • Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 3:25 pm

        I’m on record as saying the hick from North Carolina will have a better year than Lincecum.
        Speaking of UNC, why aren’t they playing in the Championship Game tomorrow night?
        That’s right, my Rock, Chalk, Jayhawks beat them last week. Then they came back yesterday to beat OSU.

        Kentucky vs Kansas. I hate to say it but it’s true…just like I predicted. πŸ˜€

      • twinfan1 said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:22 pm

        Well, maybe I didn’t the point clear- 7 of the 8 leaders in stolen bases didn’t make the playoffs. They’re running but not getting anywhere.

  22. Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 3:02 pm

    I know it’s *only* spring Training, but Romo is giving me some cause for concern. Had that little elbow soreness and now he just gave up a HR to N. Morgan to push this ERA north of 7. Ouch.

    • James said, on April 1, 2012 at 3:33 pm

      If Romo does pitch poorly this year, it’s a good bet he’ll wind up on the DL because of the bum elbow

  23. twinfan1 said, on April 1, 2012 at 3:08 pm

    Well, if the minor league outing counted, Tim’s ERA is also north of 7. Maybe he’d better get back on the shit burgers…cutting back on the pink slime must be done carefully and preferably with a doctor’s assistance..

  24. Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 3:14 pm

    The winner of the LA Derby (Hero of Order) just paid $220.80 to win.
    I hope the connections enjoy their stay in Louisville five weeks from now while their horse finishes nowhere to be seen.

  25. Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 3:55 pm

    If you look up *giant pussy* in the dictionary….well, you probably wouldn’t find it. But if there WAS a definition, it would simply say “Ubaldo Jimenez”. Today, still butt-hurt over not getting a big contract in Colorado like Tulo and Car-go, he plunks Tulo in the elbow with his first pitch to him and then motions for Tulo to come fight him. Tulo went to the hospital…..

  26. Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:01 pm

    Blanco and BUrriss went 0-10 today. Can’t steal a bag if you can’t get on first base. 😦

    • Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:05 pm

      The White Shark 0 fer 5? If Chief Brody were here he’d say, “You’re gonna need a bigger bat.”

      • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:24 pm

        funny, that’s what Andres Torres would say, too

  27. blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:08 pm

    OH FUCK! I saw this happening weeks ago. You’re absolutely correct that Ubaldo is a complete pussy Flav. Likewise, Tulo has a big mouth and has been spouting off since the end of last year about how Jimenez only cared about his contract and that Tulo/Rockies “. . . only want players that want to be here in Colorado.” He has said that about a couple of other former players too. He is turning off a lot of the fans here according to the local media.

    In my opinion, both of them should have shut the fuck up and let sleeping dogs lie. I have Tulo on my other Fantasy League team and this hurts (although, I have Rollins as a backup). Any word on the severity of the injury?

    • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:23 pm

      it was precautionary. But still, you’d probably prefer to not have your round 1 pick get plunked in ST by a pussy pitcher looking to settle an old score…
      By the way, I was 100% with Tulo in all of this. Ubaldo signed his deal before they did, he put his name on the deal and agreed to play for that amount. Tough luck that the other 2 guys got paid. Suck it up and get a better agent next time……….

      • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:30 pm

        They just had a news report on TV saying he was taken to a local hospital for precautionary X-rays on his left elbow. Those X-rays were negative, meaning there was no structural damage. Might be out for the Friday season start though. My cousin knows his Dad and Tulo is a very very team oriented “rah rah” type of player (which I like) that wears his emotions on his sleeve (which gets him in trouble on occasion).

      • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:45 pm

        One more reason I hate the DH . . . Ubaldo would have thought twice about hitting him if he had to go to bat the following inning. Guys like Gibson and Drysdale drilled hitters in the back knowing full well they’d be stepping in the box 3 or 4 times that day. These days AL pitchers get a free shot, knowing there’s not much opportunity to retaliate.

      • Bozo said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:48 pm

        “Guys like Gibson and Drysdale drilled hitters in the back knowing full well they’d be stepping in the box 3 or 4 times that day.”

        As would the pitcher that hit those guys. If the hitters didn’t challenge Gibson and Drysdale, I doubt many other pitchers wanted to piss em off.

    • Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:24 pm

      I know that you can’t stand Carl Crawford, and I know that you know that I like him.
      It’s a wash. They’ll be no buy low/sell high shit here. Let’s see what Ed says to my blockbuster first. Because the guy I was going to offer you for Crawford is in that deal.

      Now that I think about it, I already have Youk (who I really like) on my team. Not crazy about having two BoSox on my team. Unless you’re stashing A-Gon on your bench. I’ll take him off your hands. πŸ˜€

      • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:38 pm

        Dennis, you’re right that I can’t stand him, but he has the potential to be a stud this year if he can get over his wrist injury.

        Gonzales? That would be Mr. Pota . . . uhh, Giant Head. I have another trade proposal with Chuck and an email to our resident Poet Laureate, Mr. Pawlie, indicating my desire to trade Crawford. In all instances, I am interested in an outfielder, since we have to play 5 of them this year.

      • Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:02 pm

        Blade, that was my “strategy,” if you can call it that, going into our draft. With having to start 5 OF, I set my pre-draft selections to take OF with my first four picks — Bautista, CarGo, Hamilton and Bourn. I thought the OF pool got a little shallow after the top tier guys were gone. Wanted to get the best while I could. Just my two cents.

      • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:12 pm

        Den, read my post below . . . I actually didn’t emphasize any outfielders. I agree with you that having to play 5 outfielders is something that I thought about, but in all Live Drafts, the strategy is ALWAYS to fill positions that have a limited number of tier one players, e.g., shortstop, catcher.

  28. Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:11 pm

    Calling all Flap fans who reside in Derbyshire county: Ed, I sent you that blockbuster.
    It’s five of mine, for five of yours. “With Six You Get Eggroll.”

    • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:39 pm

      He must be around . . . He just sent me a Facebook “friend” request from Merry old England.

  29. DJLoo said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:15 pm

    Whenever I see the word “blogroll” on the upper right side of this page, I always get hungry.
    Sounds delicious!

    • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:26 pm

      douse the shit out of that blogroll with copious amounts of Frank’s Red Hot sauce and you’re good to go…….

  30. Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:35 pm

    Flav, what’s your thoughts on the Dodger’s closer job? I moved up Kenley Jansen quite a few spots in our pre-draft thinking I might get a steal. But it’s Guerra’s job. But his walks and Ks/9IP stink on ice. But saves are saves. It’s rough shouldering a set-up with one of your only three RP spots.

    My inclination is to keep KJ. Your thoughts? Thanks.

    • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:53 pm

      my thoughts are, though Jansen’s numbers scream *dominant closer* it’s still Guerra’s job to lose. And he really didn’t do anything last year to justify losing it. Not all closers have dominant SO/BB rates. And for my tastes, Jansen was just going to early to ever draft him in the *hopes* that Guerra can’t do the job once the season starts…..
      But Jansen should definitely be their closer and if Guerra’s falters then he’ll score the gig. In the meantime, Jansen will help your WHIP, ERA and strikeouts and might get you a vulture win or two.
      Round 13 (right around where he went in all my live drafts) was just too early for me to pull the trigger on him though…….
      As a Giants fan, I hope Guerra keeps the job………

  31. Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 4:49 pm

    Now that our Autopick (which is for Pussies) Draft is over, I’d like to hear your favorite picks/sleepers and/or hometown Giant picks that landed on your roster.

    I was happy to see basically my entire OF. Kendrick (had him last yr) at 2B in from of AP is good. I look for Youk to rebound at 3B. And I really expect a big bounce back yr from Adam Dunn. I did not target Soriano, but I’ll take it as a sign.

    As for my pitching…Greinke, Kennedy, Zimmerman, McCarthy and Minor were all guys on my list. No complaints. As for my relief? That’s where I need some. HELP!

    • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:02 pm

      Actually, both of my sleepers I picked up on the waiver wire, Lorenzo Cain and Francisco Liriano. I also had Cozart Dennis, not because I needed him, but I figured that I could use him in a trade to upgrade my outfield. Hahaha . . . You, of course, fucked up that plan.

      In the draft itself, my pre-draft combination of emphasizing specific positions – 2nd, short, 3rd, catcher, short, pitcher, pitcher – in the first 7 rounds and moving players to the corresponding slots where I would draft worked exactly how I planned it (Pedroia, Ramirez, Castro, Beltre, Santana, Price, and Wilson). The rest of my picks I designated “Best Available Player.”

  32. Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:02 pm

    Auto pick draft? I was fine with it. I got some of the guys I moved up (Longoria, Lawrie, Jennings, Jesus Montero, Yu Darvish, Cespedes, and Anibel Sanchez).
    Of course, I didn’t get any closers because fuckin’ Kevin drafted all of them πŸ™‚ I got Beckett who I never drafted but who I think will have a very nice year again this year so I’m fine with that. Not into the Latos pick, not sure how I got him……
    The closer problem is easy to fix with the waiver wire as the season progresses. I picked up Melancon today (I had been meaning to do so) when I heard Bailey is hurt again (usually a given with him). Valentine could pick Aceves to close if Bailey misses time but Melancon would be the better choice— and I’m not beating off to Melancon by any stretch I just think he’d be more successful than Aceves. We’ll see…….

    • Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:24 pm

      That’s funny. I had the choice, and I p/u Aceves. Why? I dunno. First in the alphabet I guess.
      That’s why AAAAAAAA Plumbing always do a good business.

  33. twinfan1 said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:07 pm

    I’m asking this respectfully and politely- couldn’t there be a page for the fantasy league stuff? Thanks.

    • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:15 pm

      you can ask for it and I appreciate the respectful request, but we’re talking about baseball and there is less than zero to talk about right now as it relates to the Giants that we haven’t driven into the ground a thousand times already.
      When the season starts, there will be a page for the fantasy standings as well as a place to comment about it. But while I’m passing the time before I watch my Stanford girls hand Baylor their first loss of the season, I don’t really have a problem with the fantasy talk when there isn’t any other Giants headlines to speak of. Of course, if anyone wants to kick a Giants topic around, I’m down with that, too…
      Cardinal/Baylor game starts inside of an hour from now so I’ll be gone then

      • twinfan1 said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:20 pm

        Alrighty then.

      • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:24 pm

        but as i said, there will definitely be a fantasy page when the season starts and the rule will be that all the fantasy talk goes down there…..
        It might mean the end of the BBOTD and the BBOTDPOTD pages (cause I jsut can’t manage a new thread, POTD, BBOTD *search* and BBOTDPOTD AND a fantasy page all in a single hour before I start my 3-D morning routine). That will sadden me. I enjoyed that this Winter…….

  34. Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:17 pm

    by the way Blade, did you see my man Jennings blast 3 bombs today? I hope you didn’t pull the trigger on Bourn for Jennings, he’s going to have a monster year…….

    • Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:47 pm

      Wait. Are you saying you’d rather have Desmond Jennings > Michael Bourn?
      Player A: .333, 23 runs, 8 HRs, 20 RBIs, 14 SB.
      Player B: .160, 21 runs, 2 HRs, 5 RBIs, 6 SB.
      Player A is Desmond Jennings over his first 141 at-bats last season. Player B? Desmond Jennings over the next, and final, 106 at-bats

      Jennings has no track record. Bourn? I think he has the track record at Belmont going 12F.
      No. That belongs to Secretariat. 2:24 for 1 1/2. But Bourn’s still fast, just not Secretariat fast.

      • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:54 pm

        I know all about that article Denny, Blade sent me the same one a while back when he asked me if I thought he should trade Jennings for Bourn.
        Jennings had a bad 2nd half (he’s young, that happens) but he’s got several underlying numbers that indicate he could be a super star. It could start this season. I’m all in, he’s on 4 of my 5 teams…….
        Bourn is a one-trick pony and that type of horse has no place on my team (especially when Bourn is going 1-3 rounds higher than Jennings)…….

      • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:54 pm

        LMAO Dennis . . . Next time put quotes around that entire post. Umm, does Matthew Berry ring a bell? Moreover, I sent that excerpt to Flav in an email when I asked about Jennings and Bourn. I like Berry, but I no longer buy his argument after I exchanged a number of emails with Flav.

      • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:55 pm

        Beat my post by a hair Flav πŸ˜‰

  35. blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:26 pm

    No, I still have him Flav. I’m happy that you gave me that advice, so will hold onto him. Wow! Surprised by the power display. Who did he hit them off of? He has been nursing a sore shoulder, so I knew he wasn’t exactly himself in ST. Glad to hear he is hitting before the start of the season. Bourn has been striking out quite a bit lately and his average sucks.

    • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:31 pm

      I’ve been mildly worried about the shoulder thing too, but young guys heal fast. I think he could go 20/40 this year. He isn’t going to help your batting average .250-.260 something like that. But he’ll be more valuable than Bourn this year who, by the way, isn’t going to hit more than around .280 this year. Last year his xbattingaverage was 25 points less than his actual and I expect the actual to come down this year……
      I didn’t catch who he hit them off. Don’t really care, even if the wind was blowing out. It means his shoulder is good to go and that’s all I care about…..

      • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:38 pm

        Bourn’s BA last year was also an outlier, i.e., that .294 BA is way off his career average of .271; couple that with his new found propensity to strikeout (140 last year), as you said, he is a risk to duplicate his overall good 2011 season.

      • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:48 pm

        agreed, and typing .280 was a typo I meant .260. I should have jsut said *right around Jennings*. BUt if they both hit .260, who would you rather have, the guy who hits 1 hr and steals 60 bases or the guy who goes 20/40? Rhetorical question obviously, but still……..

  36. Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:35 pm

    Dennis— just as hitters have xBA, pitchers have xERA. Both are an OUTSTANDING way to predict future success. Aceves’ ERA last year was a sparkling 2.61 but his xERA was 4.19! The year before he got lucky too, it was 3.00 actual and 5.01 X. He’s due for a big fall this year. Pitchers that have more than a point higher xERA than their actual ERA almost always fall apart later……
    Plus, Melancon has actual closer experience and his DOM and CMD numbers are better than Aceves’…..

    • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:39 pm

      having said all that, I think Valentine is an idiot so he’ll probably make the wrong choice and pick Aceves. But, that won’t help him when the blown saves start to pile up…..

    • twinfan1 said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:57 pm

      Here is the list of best and worst hitters by X-BA for 2011. Shit-if we’d kept Keppinger, Orlando Cabrera, Tejada, and Font, our middle infieldd woes wouild be over. πŸ˜‰
      X-BA and real BA 2011:
      Kepp .325 .277
      Cabrera .237 .280
      Font .227 .271
      Tejada .239 .270

      http://rotochamp.com/baseball/2011HitterAnalysis.aspx

      • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 6:32 pm

        THis xBA list has NOTHING to do with the numbers I use. None of these are correct. I’m strictly using the ones from Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster. I repeat, my xBA numbers have NOTHING to do with these. You want to use Shandler’s numbers then use them, but these aren’t them…….

      • twinfan1 said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:35 pm

        These are the correct numbers for 2011, not forecasts. What do you mean if I want to use Shandler’s numbers? They’re not HIS. My numbers are from RotpChamp, also used by Fangraphs.They are every bit as reputable as Shandler. This is not an official stat, it was designed by the “Baseball Professor” but some figfures are subjective. Here are the creator’s numbers for last year.
        http://www.baseballprof.com/2011-expected-batting-average-xba/

      • Flavor said, on April 2, 2012 at 4:43 am

        I am aware you were listing stats from 2011, not projections for 2012. And I will say it again, these numbers are NOT the xBA numbers I use at The Baseball Forecaster or baseballhq.com. These aren’t within 30-40 points of the xBA’s I use. I send them to you if you want to see them as well as the formula they use to come up with their xBA.

  37. Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 5:52 pm

    Flav, should I hold on to Kenley Jansen? I think I am, but I value your opinion and would like to hear your input.

    • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 6:34 pm

      definitely hold on to him. You’ve got him, there isn’t anything on the WW that approaches his numbers or his potential if he ever gets to close.
      All I was saying was that I wouldn’t draft him in round 13 without a good chance of him replacing the current guy. And since Guerra hasn’t shown he’s nearing *implode territory* then I wouldn’t draft him in the 13th round of a 30 round league (shit, I got Wilson in round 11 in a couple of leagues).
      BUt his skill set is one to own if you own it.

  38. paulinasia said, on April 1, 2012 at 6:23 pm

    Story on SF’s MLB page talks about the “difficult” decisions still to be made, particularly for “reserves” like Belt and who stays for the middle infield. Those don’t seem particularly difficult to me; Belt obviously should stay, and there are good options for the other reserves. To me, the Zito problem is still the biggest, especially with Voggie and Surkamp on the DL.

    The thing the team needs to grasp is value. There are several different definitions and expressions of what constitutes “value”, but one of the simplest is the quantity and/or quality of benefits one gets for the price one pays for something. Or, value = benefits/price. Re: Zito, the price has been very high and already paid. The price component is fixed, unless you factor in an increased amount for a pitcher they’d also have to pay to take Z’s place. What benefits does having Zito still in the rotation provide, compared to the benefits of him never pitching for the team again? If all he brings to the table is the likelihood of a loss, then there’s no value. By not pitching, someone else *probably* has a higher chance of giving the team a chance to win. It’s a lot of money to eat, but in terms of getting more value, dumping him is the right way to go.

    And that’s no April Fool’s joke nor is it fantasy………

  39. blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 6:48 pm

    I just saw an ESPN segment on Bryan Stow . . . Whew. Very hard to watch without tearing up.

  40. Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 6:58 pm

    OK, so we disagree on Bourn vs Jennings. That’s what makes fantasy baseball what it is. You know what I find to be the best part of fantasy baseball? Getting the players that I covet. I’m the manager and GM here. I want to manage and decide who does or does not play for my team. I have no problem sinking with my team. Just as we might go sailing along. I love the decision making that’s involved. Right or wrong, it keeps you on your toes.

    I play in a few other fantasy leagues, but it’s not even close. I consider the Flap league just like I do the Giants.
    Home Sweet Home.

    • Flavor said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:02 pm

      I think our big difference is with the *track record* thing. I don’t do track record, I do *projecting a future track record*. And it’s 100% about value to me. Who doesn’t love Napoli? Well, last year in round 11 his owners were rewarded big time. But there’s no way I’m drafting him in 3/4 this year. You miss the boat, you miss the boat. Don’t try to swim to it. Just catch the next *boat* that *few others* are on…….
      and by the way, when I say I don’t care about *track record* that’s not accurate. I just don’t draft track record in a round where I think I could get the same production a few rounds later……

  41. blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:12 pm

    Good post Dennis . . . I remember how pissed I was as a kid that the Dodgers always seemed to be in the World Series. Meanwhile, the Giants had Mays, McCovey, Jim Ray Hart, Marichal, Perry, Alou Brothers, Cepeda, etc., and were always the bridesmaid to someone else. I don’t know who I disliked more – Herman Franks or Alvin Dark. In fantasy, I am the GM and Manager all rolled into one . . . As you said, there is a certain satisfaction in making all the day to day lineup decisions, trades, waiver wire claims, and draft decisions.

    • DJLoo said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:23 pm

      Ever notice how Giant managers tend to live to ripe old ages?

      • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:26 pm

        Are they both alive? Dark maybe, but Franks had a weight problem.

  42. DJLoo said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:20 pm

    I recently joined a Bingo Fantasy League. What a pisser! Still can’t believe I was able to draft G-37 in the 4th round. Highway robbery! Someone offered me N-46 & O-62 for B-89 today. Any thoughts?

    • paulinasia said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:33 pm

      I won’t even mention the “flesh for fantasy” league I just entered. Drafting has never been so fun.

      • James said, on April 1, 2012 at 8:53 pm

        Does Bingo Long star in that league?

      • paulinasia said, on April 1, 2012 at 9:23 pm

        James, I was focusing more on drafting either Busty Hart or Chesty Morgan. Not sure, though, which would perform better in the regular season, Busty’s 44 DD, or Chesty’s 46 D…..

    • paulinasia said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:36 pm

      Take that trade, Loo. B-89 is on the downside of its career.

      • DJLoo said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:39 pm

        But it’s having an excellent Spring, Paul….

      • paulinasia said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:44 pm

        Spring stats don’t matter, Loo, remember? N-46 also had a good spring last year, and then look what happened.

  43. Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:21 pm

    “Arazi runs right by him!”

    Arazi was sumthin’ else. Even Frank thought Arazi was the perfect horse…

  44. paulinasia said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:35 pm

    My only team-wise fantasy is based on a recent headline in the Chron: “Zito to stay in Arizona”. Like, forever.

  45. Del Mar Dennis said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:36 pm

    Flav, I noticed the 200 Max starts this year. I think that’s new, but I’m cool with that. Simple math equates 6 SP X 33 starts/yr = 198. That should eliminate the vulture SP p/u (which I’ve done) on a weekly basis and force mgrs. to find a core starting rotation of 6 good pitchers. That’s my thinking anyway…6 SP and 3 RP. But of course you have the bench availability to plug in when necessary…

    Fantasy prediction: Brennan Boesch: 95/28/92/.299

    He’s not for sale.

    • blade3colorado said, on April 1, 2012 at 7:50 pm

      Dennis check your ESPN mail box.


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