A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball

Taking a Day to Appreciate Angel Pagan

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on May 20, 2012

He’s been sneaky about it, but pretty much any saberstat you want to use will tell you that Angel Pagan is having a very nice year. We could just compare OPS’ but that stat is a pretty flawed stat. I don’t want to get into an *OPS* debate today but if you’re interested in reading more (and there is a lot written about the limitations of OPS) you can start with this article:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/44031-ops-is-flawed-we-can-do-better

I’ll compare Pagan to Ross, Blanco, Torres, Beltran and Nate using the following metrics: OPS, OPS+, wOBA and WAR. I’m not sure if there are 4 more universally accepted saberstats to use when evaluating player production but if I’m missing one (or more) feel free to note that in the thread.

Pagan: .815 OPS, 131 OPS+, .360 wOBA, 1.1 WAR

Ross:    .883 OPS, 135 OPS+, .372wOBA, 1.0 WAR

Blanco: .796 OPS, 130 OPS+, .367 wOBA, 1.0 WAR

Torres: .653 OPS, 88 OPS+, .290 wOBA, 0.3 WAR

Beltran: 1.036 OPS, 182 OPS+, .443 wOBA, 2.1 WAR

Nate: .779 OPS, 120 OPS+, .325 wOBA, 0.4 WAR

If you just look at Ross’ batting average (.271) you wouldn’t be too impressed with his year. But Cody is having a fabulous year in Boston. And it can’t just be attributed to his move to a more hitter friendly division/park since his OPS+ is at a very healthy 135.

Nate surprised me with his 120 OPS+ but his wOBA and his WAR are more indicative of his value.

Torres looks over matched across the board vs these guys but he has gone through a horrible slump over the last week (he’s 2 for his last 30). And he’s only got 66 at bats on the year. This thread isn’t an attempt to slam Torres at all, I fully expect his numbers to rise, and dramatically, once he breaks out of this slump.

Beltran dominates all four categories and at this point it looks like the only thing that’s keeping him OUT of league MVP talk at the end of the year will be his health. If he stays healthy, he’s right there with Kemp (also injured).

Finally, there is Blanco, who compares quite favorably to both Ross and Pagan in terms of value and production.

Pagan has taken a lot of sh!t here at the blog this year. Most of it, in my opinion, has been unwarranted as the stats in this thread clearly show. In fact, if you take a look at the *Watch List* I have put Melky and Pagan in there just to compare them to all of the other Ex-Giants on that list. While circumstances influenced Ross and Beltran going elsewhere, it’s difficult to not be happy with what Melky and Pagan have done this year for the Giants………

171 Responses

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  1. dirtnrocksnomo said, on May 20, 2012 at 7:55 am

    Except for Huff, Theriot and Burris WAR for all of the position players is looking good; average to plus.

  2. blade3colorado said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:04 am

    Pagan “. . . has taken a lot of shit” from Flappers here and I among a very few, have stood by him. That being said, it was either yesterday or the day before, his most vocal critic, Twin, has given him credit not only for his timely hitting, walks, and steals, but also for his improved outfield play. Another critic, snarrk has also given Pagan grief, and has grudgingly – not as clear an endorsement as Mike – said he is doing well in his line up spot. You both are welcome to clarify my aforementioned comments, since I am paraphrasing here (not going to go anal like some here and research your exact comments).

    Suffice to say, I admire people who can admit they might have been wrong and fess up to it. I wish I could do that more often. So kudos to both of you. 🙂

    From day one I liked the acquisitions of Melky and Pagan. Same deal with Blanco, albeit, Clown straightened me out on who the fuck was the “blanco tiburon.” Regardless, all three have been a revelation from the “station to station” watch paint dry fiasco we had last year, if only because it is always entertaining . . . even the errors of Pagan. –)

    • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:12 am

      I think you and I are the only regs here who have been behind Pagan for the entire year. But I’d be willing to be wrong about that if I’m forgetting someone

      • blade3colorado said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:15 am

        Agree . . . Only reason I didn’t say you specifically, is because I have been accused of agreeing with you too much, and I may not get my meal of “soup” this evening should I contradict you. 🙂

      • Nipper said, on May 20, 2012 at 9:37 am

        I always liked Pagan.

  3. Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:11 am

    I threw in the WAR stat just because it’s pretty universally accepted and I’d get sh!t for not using it. But I’m not a big fan of it. I don’t like the term *replacement player* –it’s someone considered below average or easily attainable (like a player from triple A). I’m sorry, but that doesn’t really fly with me. Having a WAR of 1.0 is saying that a guy like Pagan or Ross is only a single win more valuable than a guy from triple A??? I just think *replacement player* is way too vague.
    Plus, I’m not a huge UZR guy, there are too many wild fluctuations with that stat for me to take it seriously…….

  4. paulinasia said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:14 am

    Yes, Pagan has finally started doing what everyone hoped he would, rather recently. Coincidental or not, it corresponds directly to the lineup change. And who said psychology wasn’t part of the game….

  5. dirtnrocksnomo said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:18 am

    I agree on the whole replacement player topic. Just commenting on WAR as the accepted stat (as you say). Flawed or not, a roster comparison from this time ’11 to ’12 and you see an improved club.

  6. twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:22 am

    It was’t even close to unwarranted to criticize Pagan’s performance at the plate and in field and on the basepaths. Through April he had a sub-.300 OPS, had made numerous misplays in the OF and on the bases. As Steve says, and I thank him for acknowedging it, I’ve credited his much improved play, as well.The statement that his stats NOW make the earlier criticism unwarranted is poppycock, of course. When he was bad, it was fairly noted. As he improved, that was also noted.

  7. Bozo said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:26 am

    I’m not a huge stat guy, so I’ll leave that to all y’all. I will say that Pagan and Blanco have been quite the surprise for me. Melky I expected to hit, but not the way he has (dude even has a fan group, the Melk Men). I didn’t expect Crawford to have the team lead in doubles at this point and if the guy gets a bit more consistent, that would be huge. Just a few weeks ago folks were lamenting on a set line-up but now we’re almost there (we will be adjusting/tweeking once the Panda man comes back). At this point in the early season, it appears that everything is settling in nicely. And that, my Flapper friends, is a damn fine thing.
    Go Giants, sweep them San Jose wannabes back over to the land of oaks.

  8. DJLoo said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:44 am

    I actually liked the Pagan deal better than the Melky deal. Last year when Andres was struggling, I was pushing for Pagan as a more affordable alternative to Beltran before the trade deadline. I’m smart! Not like everybody says… like dumb… I’m smart and I want respect!

    • Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:02 pm

      Hey, Loo! I wouldn’t say any Hail Mary’s today if I were you.

      • Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:14 pm

        I’m sure you saw who the 2nd at Belmont was named in honor of today. Talk about an underrated racehorse. Tiller beat some quality horses in his day. Defeated the great John Henry in the Sword Dancer some thirty-odd years ago.

  9. DJLoo said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:48 am

    I don’t care for head-first sliding in general, but Pagan is one of the smoothest and fastest I ever saw at it. He starts his dive very early and even though it’s physically impossible, he appears to pick up speed when he hits the dirt…

  10. twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:59 am

    On UZR- with Pagan it’s NOT all over the map- his UZR clearly shows his good value defensively before 2011 and how bad he’s been in 2011 and this year. He was consistently a plus defender until last year and a minus last year and this. Overall, and this was considerably dragged down since 2011, he is plus 2.9 runs saved per 150 games in his career.Last year was minus 17.3. By comparison, Torres was a plus 18 last year and averages 9 runs saved per 150 games in his career. This is NOT to say that Torres is more valuable this year or overall but it is to say that defense does count in evaluating players and the UZR/150 figures clearly reflect Pagan’s decline defensively after 2010. Question now is why.He is too young for such a dramatic decline.

    • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 9:09 am

      I erred on Torres UZR/150 for his career, it’s actually 19.1 runs saved per 150 games

  11. willieD said, on May 20, 2012 at 9:07 am

    I was unsure what p would bring to the table after his downturn from a great 2010, and the first month when he wasn’t getting on base and made mistakes in the OF and on the bases was troubling. But his offense has been great lately, spraying the ball everywhere and stealing bases, plus getting a lot of BBs.
    blanco is a better pure lead off hitter imo, and might be a better CF as well but pagan is playing really well right now. Sando gets back, watch out…I could see SF taking over the division and leaving LA in the dust.
    Funny, but the talk about z end of last thread really has me more worried than anything. He’s been pretty lucky so far to have run support. his peripheral saber stats aren’t anything to write home about, and most likely get worse as ERA/FIP starts to climb and the Ks go down. I could still see this guy contracting a “mysterious virus” in the near future. Dirt, I wouldn’t count your chickens, eh…..

  12. St said, on May 20, 2012 at 9:09 am

    For the record, I liked the Pagan trade and while I haven’t predicted a great yr, I haven’t criticized him. I felt he was trying to hard to impress. Like Torres, he did get a 5 WAR in 2010. Most of his mistakes, as Steward points out, were from being overly aggressive.

    In addition to the trades and Blanco, Vogelsong another off season move paying off. Amazing what this guy has done.

    • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 9:50 am

      I had posted that Vogelsong was perhaps the key to the season- and I think it’s been true. I thought it would be because of Zito’s ineffectiveness, and that could still be why. So far he’s offset Tim’s poor start. The point being that they can live with 4 effective starters and one poor one- but not 3 and 2. That Vogelsong has been even better than last year is both a surprise and why they’re not double digits behind.IMO.

  13. willieD said, on May 20, 2012 at 9:24 am

    couple non-baseball things before i do hit the gym and do something productive for only time today.
    The elmore leonard “raylan” is one of his best in a long time, great story (actually 3 connected ones) set in eastern kentucky coal mining area. Dunno how he does it; his past novels have settings in miami, detroit and in oklahoma (hot kid ones) plus get shorty in LA.
    Leonid McGill series by walter mosley are really gritty noir stuff in NYC–hard to follow plot lines and a ton of great characters, but great reading. Way better than the easy rawlins stuff set in LA (made a movie of one of these with don cheadle as his gunslinger buddy “mouse”).
    Lakeshow outplayed and outcoached at home =sayonara, and this will end badly with a few principals not coming back. Durant and westbrook made the plays kobe and gasol (disgustingly soft player) didn’t. Bynum dominated first half doesn’t even touch it in second, lakers unable to get him the ball when “fronted.” That’s HS stuff–ball goes to corner or on top from the wing (like the triangle set up) and you throw it to the rim and he dunks. It’s actually easier in NBA because of the stupid 3 second D rule, weakside help can’t be in the lane until ball arrives. Can’t remember who said it (shaman maybe) but Spurs are playing the best of anyone right now and will be a force.

    • St said, on May 20, 2012 at 9:31 am

      Assume you have seen the superb show Justified, based on Leonard’s Raylan?

      • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 9:35 am

        Good news- the show has been renewed for a 4th season.
        —-
        “Alcatraz” got cancelled after one season. I kind of wished that had got renewed. Although it’s not nearly as good as J.J. Abrams’ other series “Fringe.”

      • willieD said, on May 20, 2012 at 9:38 am

        finally getting it right–maximum bob and the marshal karen sisco stuff just didn’t make it on mainstream TV. Givens is a really good multi faceted character.

    • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 9:32 am

      Willie, surely you have been watching “Justified”? That’s the TV show based on the Leonard story “Fire In The Hole.” The character Raylan is portrayed by Tim Olyphant, who went to high school in the Central Valley. He was the sheriff in the HBO series “Deadwood.” Raylan is one of the great TV characters ever. In fact, “Justified” is one of the best done series ever.
      —-
      In regards to the NBA, i’m pulling for the Thunder. The thought of the dull Spurs in the finals again is a gloomy thought. (grin)

  14. zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 9:25 am

    I’m not concerned as much this season about what the other teams in the division are doing. I just want the Giants to play well, and give us good entertainment value, and hopefully that all means we’re in the playoff hunt. I have a similar thought to Blade- this season the team is more entertaining to watch than last season, and that’s a huge start. I’d like the Dodgers to start floundering, but it doesn’t bug me as much this season. Just seeing the Giants play good sharp baseball the last few games is what it’s all about. The 2012 team is finding its identity. We’ll get Sandoval back eventually, and that will add some homerun pop to the lineup, and hopefully the other hitters will keep their good approaches going.

    • Nipper said, on May 20, 2012 at 9:41 am

      The young guys developing their game is always nice to see. The Giants have finally learned that mature vets are not always the best formula to follow.

  15. denniszu said, on May 20, 2012 at 9:40 am

    If Penny can bring some intimidation to the pen, I’m all for that.. This team is showing they can deal with
    adversity and hold the fort till Pablo comes back. (Still not closed on Freddie…a real gamer!)

    I’m still a big Nate fan and get charge with some of his past assists… He’s a streaker hitter; but when he clicks he can produce.

    You guys in SF, you don’t know how much I envy you…Thank god for the internet and MLB otherwise I’d be
    tuning the radio ever which way just to get a Philly/Giants game.

    But it will be heaven next time the Giants vs LA and I’m in Finnerty’s in NYC… I’ll close my eyes and listen to the cheers of Giant fans all around me…..!

  16. Macdog said, on May 20, 2012 at 9:56 am

    I didn’t like the trade as soon as I heard about it, but I’ll gladly eat my words even if it means taking a bite out of the monitor as long as Pagan helps the Giants get back to the playoffs. He’s still had too many knucklehead moments, which I expected, but there’s no denying he’s been on a tear since moving to the 5-spot. And that HR at Cincy was by far the biggest hit so far this season. The guy certainly has talent, if he can just ever put it all together . . .

  17. chipower9 said, on May 20, 2012 at 10:11 am

    Excellent lead-in Craig. I agree much of the hate on Pagan was not warranted. Early, where IMO he did deserve some bashing was in his D, but he appears to be moving in the right direction there.

    I’m competing in an agility trail today, so the posts will be hit-and-miss. Timmy and the boys go for the sweep today. Orange and Black Forever – Go Giants!

    • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 10:28 am

      He was our lead off hitter sporting a sub-.300 OPB until 9 days ago ferchrrisake. Criticism on all parts of his game were totally warranted. Just as his turn around is to be praised. The verdict is hardly in, however.

    • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 10:46 am

      And just as any knowledgeable fan knew that Rowand would not maintain his inexplicable success in the lead off spot in 2009, a batting order change will not long term make Pagan an undiscovered middle of the order terror. And sorry, but Crawford is not the answer in the 2, either. It could help him once he returns to the 7 or 8, though.

      • Wilcojoe said, on May 20, 2012 at 11:09 am

        I was just thinking the same thing, regarding the Rowand leadoff changeroo…I will hold judgement till a later date.

  18. Macdog said, on May 20, 2012 at 10:43 am

    Torres is the Mets DH today.

    • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:49 pm

      DH didn’t help- Vungo is now 2 for 35..

  19. willieD said, on May 20, 2012 at 11:16 am

    I hate cardio, but…watching a monitor on espn tim kurkjian had the fangraphs guy dave cameron on there for a little while. Olney said something about there being so much more statistical data available to give teams more info and a different perspective about how players are performing.
    I like FG site; it’s good reading. Informative columns and often the blog posts from those who follow the site are really informative too–all these guys have way better understanding of saber stats and what they mean in terms of player value than I do. Plus they have a lot of different stat breakdowns for each individual player, and projections on what they might do during the year.

    • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 11:44 am

      Fangraphs is a great site- the deal with saber stats is that those who don’t understand them dismiss them as the “damn lies” category. And there certainly are some that take a bit of study to understand. Sorry, but I’ll use Torres 2010 again- according to Fangraphs he was the 4th most valuable player in the league. Now if one either distrusts or dismisses defensive value, that rating would *seem* high. But his fielding and baserunning accounted for more than half of his total value. Compare that to Huff that year, who was nearly as valuable but whose hitting was 5 times more valuable than his fielding and baserunning. Pagan fared well that year, as well, although Fangraphs has his WAR at 5.5 to Torres 6.8. Pagan’s value that year was also well more for his fielding and baserunning than his bat. He was the 12th most valuable player in the NL. In millions of dollars in total performance value, Pagan was 21.8 million, Torres 27.1. Both players kinda earned their relatively paltry salaries that year..

  20. chipower9 said, on May 20, 2012 at 11:21 am

    Zune – on your comment about wanting the Bums to hit a rough spot, let’s see what they do in June. Their schedule to date has been home-friendly and principally against weak teams.

    June they are road heavy with, I believe only 6 home games. I expect them to slide in June.

  21. Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 11:57 am

    How’s this for a start? Max Scherzer has registered 19 outs today, 15 with strikeouts.
    Not too shabby.

    • blade3colorado said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:25 pm

      He still makes me nervous . . . I thought once, twice, three times or more about sitting him today (in my Yahoo FL), but decided against it. Yeah, I am happy 🙂

      • blade3colorado said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:26 pm

        By the by, playing Pittsburgh clinched it.

      • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:29 pm

        I can’t believe you even considered that for a second. Outside of McCutchen, Pitt doesn’t have a single decent hitter on their team. And he’s struck out every at bat today, lol!

      • blade3colorado said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:39 pm

        With a 6.26 ERA and 1.73 WHIP, he could have been pitching against Sister Mary Eunice and the Missionaries of Charity AND I WOULD STILL BE NERVOUS ABOUT STARTING HIS SORRY ASS.

      • blade3colorado said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:48 pm

        By the by Flav, another reason he gave me pause, was the Big Big Burn I received yesterday from starting Drew Smyly against Pittsburgh. He has been lights out all year, but totally collapsed when he went against the Pirates yesterday. The FL critics said Smily would eventually come back to Earth, but they said, “A must start against the Pirates.” I agreed and got burned big time.

  22. eddacker said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:01 pm

    for anyone suffering TV blackout today’s game is the free one on MLB.com
    starts @ 9:05 BST (that’s 1:05 PDT)

  23. DJLoo said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:25 pm

    Most Met fans I speak to hated Pagan. These are the very same people that hated Jeff Kent…

    • blade3colorado said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:31 pm

      Didn’t New Yorkers boo a gay veteran too?

      . . . Oh wait! That’s the Republican Presidential debate audience. Ha.

  24. DJLoo said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:30 pm

    Dennis: Tiller was probably my favorite turf horse ever. Seemed like he always came through for me.
    I ‘ll never forget the heartbreaking loss in the DC to MacDiarmida…

  25. Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:38 pm

    Loo you were one of the guys who has been all-in on PaGone(!) this year, right?

    • DJLoo said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:41 pm

      Yes, Biggie…..I thought the trade had no downside and as I posted earlier, I suggested trying to pick him up last season.

      • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:45 pm

        you have extremely wise moments, Mr. DJ Loo….
        How do these Mets fans who you speak to feel about Torres hitting .203 right now? I’m assuming they aren’t taking too much comfort in his 2010 WAR number?

      • DJLoo said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:05 pm

        Everyone’s a frontrunner – especially sports fans. They love you when you’re going good, etc.
        I have never had a live conversation about WAR numbers with anyone…

  26. blade3colorado said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:44 pm

    You guys mentioning horse racing, made me remember that Twin wasn’t the most vocal critic of Pagan . . . Dennis was far more critical. In fact, he threatened to shoot him like a lame horse and I also believe he said he would dig a hole in the desert and bury him.

    My mea culpa to Twin.

    • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:47 pm

      Dennis has repeatedly said he *hates* him and was saying that up until at least a day or two ago. He was one of the reasons I decided to write today’s thread.
      I gave James a little jab in there, too, about OPS having it’s limitations. Either he keeled over and died of a heart attack when he read that or he hasn’t gotten to the blog yet today 🙂

      • blade3colorado said, on May 20, 2012 at 12:49 pm

        lqtm

    • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:29 pm

      WAR is not understood mostly because fans have an unrealistic view of how much one player is responsible for wins.Last year Nate had a bunch of game winners and it was said he won those games single handely, which is of course totally impossible. To even get to a situation where he or anybody else can hit the walk off, several players have to have done things to enable reaching that point. So while Nate may made the most obvious contribution, the win would not have been achieved or Nate even given the opportunity for the hit without contributions toward the win from others.

      • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:36 pm

        WAR has it’s problems in terms of usefulness–either in reality or fantasy. I outlined 2 of them earlier today and there are many more……

  27. twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:16 pm

    I’ve credited Pagan with his turnound but he has been acceptably productive for 9 days now. Until May 11 he was at .256 with a sub .300 OPB and that substandard defense. If one doesn’t trust UZR. fld value at Fangraphs is easier to understand. The negatives are Pagan, Panda, Posey (largely because of first base), Arias, Huff, Gillaspie, Burris. Angel is far and away the worst rated fielder of that group.And while we’re busy giving kudos to poor neglected and abused Pagan, Mr. Belt remains the best RBI man in the line up- an RBI each 6.8 AB. By comparison Posey is 8.06.

  28. Bozo said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:18 pm

    Solid double from the Melk Man.

  29. blade3colorado said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:26 pm

    Loo, speaking of NY Mets fans . . . Can you do me a favor and lead the lynching party for Frank Francisco. Son of a bitch is on my Flap team and if there were any closers available or even closers in waiting, I would drop his ass. As it is, he gives me a near heart attack every time he pitches (for example – see the game he is pitching in the 9th against Toronto as I type this. Walked the first batter and Bautista just singled. AAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!).

    I just checked before posting this . . . He got the save. Regardless, I still may waive his *&@#$!* ass,

  30. zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:28 pm

    I’m eating cold watermelon right now. Another reason to love summer in addition to baseball. Melon season.

    • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:31 pm

      I was at the mall earlier today and I can DEFINITELY say that it’s *Melon season* right now. 🙂

  31. Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:30 pm

    Hustle play by PaGone!–Fitting, it happens in *Angel Pagan Day* here at the Flap…….

    • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:33 pm

      Get him over, get him in. Well done!

  32. Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:33 pm

    Shit, talk about a run that was 100% manufactured by one guy….PaGone(!!!!!!)

    • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:35 pm

      It took a few weeks, but we’re seeing the speed offense we thought we were going to see.

    • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:37 pm

      The fly balls by Belt and Arias were kinda crucial.

      • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:49 pm

        It doesn’t happen if Pagan doesn’t make it to 2nd base with no out. And are you trying to say that Belt TRIED to sacrifice him to 3rd? That was just a lazy fly ball that Pagan deftly took advantage of…….

  33. Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:35 pm

    Burris bunting with 2-outs and Timmy up next.
    I ask again. WTF is this pussy POS still on the team? Fuck him.

    • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:37 pm

      He got a hit, and got Timmy’s AB out of the way for next inning. Give him credit for succeeding.

      • Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:47 pm

        Fuck that. Under NO circumstances should the 8 hitter bunt with 2-outs and the P up next. And IF he succeeds (a good throw gets him), he should be attempting to steal. And if that was his goal — just to get Timmy’s AB out of the way, he’s a bigger pussy than I thought.

      • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:53 pm

        His goal was to get on base, and he succeeded.

      • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:55 pm

        And no, a steal is not attempted when that could leave the pitcher leading off the next inning- exactly what’s to be avoided.Burriss did exactly what the book asks for- turn the lineup over..

      • Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:57 pm

        Not via a bunt single in that situation. If you believe so, you’re a nincompoop.

      • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:05 pm

        There is no difference in that situation between a bunt single, a line drive, a bloop, or a bleeder. Dennis, this is worse than your other Spiel du Jour because you have zero to even suggest support for it.

    • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:50 pm

      Pay attention here, Dennis- with two outs and nobody on, a bunt basehit is the same as one to the outfield. Were you looking for a HR?

      • Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:02 pm

        Turn the lineup over — yes. But NOT in the manner in which he did it in.
        Tell me you honestly believe that a bunt by Burriss in that situation is a good play, and you’ll be lying like a rug.

      • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:07 pm

        Explain the diff between being on first via a bunt or a line drive to the OF. You can’t, because there is none.

  34. twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:36 pm

    Now that run was text book situational hitting, with Pagan obviously the catalyst.

  35. PawlieKokonuts said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:40 pm

    Pagonation.

    • Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:55 pm

      Pagonumskull

  36. blade3colorado said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:49 pm

    No way I wait that long for a piece of porcelain . . . I get my girl friend to stand in line. 🙂

  37. Bozo said, on May 20, 2012 at 1:56 pm

    Getting the run in.

  38. PawlieKokonuts said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:06 pm

    Enjoying the heck out of Wilson in the booth.

    • mrmrbill said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:23 pm

      He’s a natural. Good use of a closer in a non-close situation.

  39. Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:16 pm

    I usually listen to both the radio and TV during the Giants games. But with BW in the booth, I had to turn off KNBR. I wanted to make sure I heard every word coming outta his mouth. Listening to Wilson is good stuff, Maynard.

    A 2-0 lead vs the A’s with our Ace on the mound should be in the bag. Oops, I’m sorry. Bumgarner isn’t pitching today. Get a goddamn haircut.

  40. twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:18 pm

    These innings featuring the likes ol Cowgill are getting old..oops, hope he’s OK.

  41. Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:20 pm

    Timmy “Gerry Cooney” Lincecum.

  42. PawlieKokonuts said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:22 pm

    One of the more bizarre half-innings I’ve seen in a long time. How do you spell “unravel”?

    • Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:32 pm

      There was a pretty good horse a few years ago named “Ravel.” For the longest time I didn’t know if he was named after the great French composer or if it had to do with becoming entangled. I’ll say this — he sure tied my pocketbook up in a knots.

  43. zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:25 pm

    The play at the plate was similar to one a few years ago when Tim got completely flipped over at the plate

  44. Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:36 pm

    Why didn’t Burriss attempt another bunt? His last AB was so “successful.” Why mess with success?
    Maybe because Nate was on deck this time. Fucker. I’d like to send both he and PaGone on a slow boat to China.

    • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:40 pm

      Dennis, you are really not showing yourself to best effect if you hope for a deadline trade. Best we’ll get is Mossback..

  45. Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:37 pm

    I only caught about half of that inning that Timmy gave up 4 runs, but it seemed to me that he was throwing way too many off speed pitches that the A’s just let pass by without swinging. He didn’t seem to have any problem throwing his FB. In fact, he needs to throw it MORE IMO. The off speed stuff is just passing harmlessly by these patient hitters……..

    • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:41 pm

      0-1 counts kept immediately turning into 2-1 counts.

  46. twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:38 pm

    I don’t how he avoided injury. That could be a real brain rattler.

  47. Macdog said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:40 pm

    I missed Timmy’s blow-up inning, which is now becoming routine. Now he’s out. Was he that bad, or did something happen to him?

    • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:46 pm

      His control seemed to desert him again that inning.

  48. Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:41 pm

    TF, I’ll take your non-response to my argument of Burriss bunting in front of the pitcher as concurring with my premise. Speaking of non’s…Did you hear the one about the manager who brought in his closer in a NON-save situation? 😀

    • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:46 pm

      You didn’t have an “argument.” You had an odd rant.

      • Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:56 pm

        Whether you wish to call it an “argument” or an “odd rant,” just admit I’m right and you’re wrong and move on.

    • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:59 pm

      I’m no longer responding because asked and answered. You have no argument, Denny. Move on to another schtick..

  49. blade3colorado said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:43 pm

    Twin, I am having problems with my pc . . . Specifically, the processor shuts off. It has done it about once every 3-4 months, but today has done it 3 times (which is unusual). Is their a software test for the AMD processor I can perform? Fans seem to be working fine and temperatures seem fine too.

    If you prefer to email me . . . blade3colorado@yahoo.com . . . Thanks.

  50. twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:56 pm

    That was the shits-same pitch to both guys. That fat fuck is a crafty one, I’ll give him that.

  51. Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:59 pm

    I take back what I said earlier about wanting to send PaGONE on a slow boat to China.
    After that last fuck-piss AB I’d make the bastard row himself.

    • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:01 pm

      Hard to totally blame Pagan if Joyce is going to give Colon a strike on a pitch out of the strikezone. Pagan had to lean over the plate to cover the outside.

  52. Sportdude said, on May 20, 2012 at 2:59 pm

    Didn’t see the inning. When will the discussion of weight lose vs. injury pop up for Timmy. Bochy must not have much confidence in him, as he routinely takes him out at 90 pitches. Is he really saying we have a better chance to stay close with a 5th inning scrub, than Lincecum??

    • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:03 pm

      A factor was the shot that Tim took to the chin the previous inning on the play at the plate. They figured play it safe.

    • willieD said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:41 pm

      took him forever and a lot of pitches to get out of it. Had to be pretty gassed—stressful innings wear you down more.

  53. Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:00 pm

    I didn’t see Pagan’s at bat but I picked the inning up with Belt 0-2. I thought ANY of those 3 balls could have been called strike three and was surprised that Belt took all 3. Strike three was something he had to have swung at. To take those 4 pitches, all hittable pitches, once he was 0-2, was inexcusable to me. At least Burriss used his fucking bat in that bunt at bat. The same can’t be said for Belt…….

    • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:06 pm

      Belt’s AB was way better than Pagan’s..he took thrree pitches because he has a good eye.

      • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:09 pm

        apparently he doesn’t have that good of an eye since the 4th pitch was a strike. ANY of those previous 3, by the way, could have been strike three. If Belt doesn’t have enough confidence to swing his goddamn bat in that situation then he should be sitting for ANYONE who will swing it…….

      • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:10 pm

        But both were fooled on the same pitch, picking out Belt is absurd especially because the one out at bat is the real key one because he can get a run home with an out.

      • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:12 pm

        He did foul off a 3-2 pitch.

      • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:13 pm

        Belt fouled off a 3-2 pitch, I mean.

      • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:19 pm

        Belt swung three times, try to be accurate at least. Pagan swung the bat once. They both stuck out on the same pitch, looking. They were both fooled on that pitch, had nothing to do their eye.

    • Macdog said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:14 pm

      Pagan struck out on the same exact pitch as Belt, the big difference was all the previous pitches to Pagan were away and then Colon went in and caught him looking.

  54. Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:10 pm

    Burriss pulled a *Belt* there……

  55. twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:14 pm

    My God, PaGONE is already reverting to form. As I said, he could have driven in a run making an out, his was the killer…

    • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:17 pm

      It’s Angel Pagan Day here at the Flap so he gets a little slack. Plus, he’s already scored a run basically by himself. Belt and his *good at bats* is 0-3 with 2 k’s. He gets no slack……..

  56. Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:19 pm

    Time to hit the pool. Later.

  57. Bozo said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:19 pm

    I thought the pitches Belt took were all balls (including the last one called a strike). At least to my eyes here.
    Blue seems to have an early date and is (now) calling that outside pitch a strike. My guess is HOPR was booked up with the Bay To Breaker fucks (the only day out of the year that I don’t miss living in SF) and Blue could only get in on the early reservation, so he wants to get the game over soon.

    • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:23 pm

      It definitely was a huge moment in the game when he called that strike on Pagan on the 1-0 pitch. The ball was clearly outside and it messed up Pagan’s AB. Colon kept painting that same spot, and had Pagan leaning over the plate, and then threw the inside one for strike 3.

      • Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:32 pm

        Please. Stop. Blaming. Umpires. Thank. You.

      • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:35 pm

        It’s kind of a big deal if the ump is going to call a pitch 8 inches out of the strikezone a strike.

  58. blade3colorado said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:23 pm

    Twin, I just sent you an email . . . Thanks.

  59. twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:23 pm

    Pagan doesn’t score unless Belt gets him to third with the deep flyball. He could have walked to third. Then Arias drives him in with a medium deep fly. The idea that Pagan scored that run “basically by himself” is totally absurd…

    • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:29 pm

      well then chalk up another *good at bat* for Belt!

  60. Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:27 pm

    You guys wanna hear something really sad? I made a comment today over on the A’s Drumbeat blog.
    I feel cheapened and so low and dirty. You know? Like one of Chuck’s scaffuzos at his favorite whorehouse.

    • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:51 pm

      The last time I checked the Splash, it looked like this:

  61. twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 3:52 pm

    Before these last two at bats, Bochy told Belt he wanted him to hit just like Pagan.

    • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 4:18 pm

      Seriously, obviously Belt had a rough game- it happens. He still has produced RBis at a better rate than the other regulars. He also plays top notch defense.

  62. Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 4:02 pm

    As bad as Belt was at the plate today this gm can’t be pinned on a position player. Once again, the culprit is Lincecum. Ive given him a ton of slack cause he’s earned it with his career here. But he’s frssh out of slack as far as I’m concerned.

  63. willieD said, on May 20, 2012 at 4:04 pm

    Suppose belt does not turn out to be a big pop 20 HR guy. Instead he hits .280 with high OB and fields his position well….JT Snow on the low end, Keith Hernandez (18 was his high, and hit 11 a few times) maybe for a few years at best. Something wrong with that, or is just underneath everyone’s expectations?
    On the merc blog, someone posted the stat runs produced per AB—runs plus rbis minus HRs divided by ABs—and belt was one of team leaders. Meaningless stat? Maybe, but top hitters in the game are routinely over .300 at it. Sf has quite a few guys not much over .200.

    • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 4:53 pm

      That is not a meaningless stat, it’s a very reliable one for gauging run production. Some people don’t understand why HRs are subtracted- it’s because otherwise the hitter would get credit for 2 runs produced instead of the actual 1.

      • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 4:56 pm

        Everyone should understand that.
        And see my post below.

    • Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 5:55 pm

      Willie, did you just compare Belt with Keith Hernandez?
      I hate Keith Hernandez. I despise him. And you want to be my latex salesman.

  64. willieD said, on May 20, 2012 at 4:14 pm

    Found it in yesterday’s postgame notes blog post #121 (stick man): worst on team are burriss and craw at .170, Pagan at .195, Arias .204, Posey .230 (not clean up numbers imo), Melk .250, belt .264, leader is blanco at .340 (with limited ABs, that drops today quite a bit). Just fyi.

    • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 4:54 pm

      Stickman— didn’t he used to post here? I’m not talking about Stix (who also used to post here).
      Willie-d that sounds like a perfectly useful stat and one that Belt should excel in since it doesn’t count hr’s. Look, I’m mildly down with Belt. I might give him a little more shit because I’ve got him on a fantasy team and while I should bench him each week I continue to start him. So maybe I should give myself a little shit, eh? On that same team I’ve got Pagan and he’s been quite productive—both were drafted back to back, pagan in 17, Belt in 18. Belt is owned in 74% of nfbc leagues (meaning he’s languishing on the ww in 26%. Pagan is owned in 100% of nfbc leagues. Different positions but they’re producing runs, ba, steals, hr’s and rbi’s at a different rate too. Advantage: Pagan.

      • willieD said, on May 20, 2012 at 6:16 pm

        And i posted earlier that to me pagan is playing really well right now, agreed. Fantasty ball of does not take in defense as a stat, and there we’d have advantage belt. He’s gotta be crawford’s best buddy.
        I’m just wondering if the expectations of all (including me) that he would be a big pop guy aren’t obscuring the fact that he could be a very productive player with great benefit to his team for years to come at 1b even if he didn’t hit many HRs in his career.

  65. twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 5:07 pm

    Belt gets no advantage with that stat over a guy who has more HRs. It measures “true” runs produced. If his number is higher than another guy it’s because he’s produced more runs.

    • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 5:11 pm

      I know that. I was making a side-joke about Belt not hitting homeruns. Now that I think about it, there’s really nothing funny about that at all…

  66. twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 5:24 pm

    What is “truly not funny is that the guys Wiliie lists are worse run producers, including our clean up hitter.

    • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 6:25 pm

      Posey and Pagan are WAY ahead of Belt on wRC+ so don’t even go there with that post……

  67. Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 5:41 pm

    Did you guys just see Barbara get out of the bases loaded, no outs jam unscathed?
    How many times need I remind? This world needs more scathing.

    • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 5:51 pm

      I missed that- so how are your Dodgers doing?

      • Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 6:03 pm

        They’re on pace to win 109 games. BTW, if you get the chance, go outside in about a 1/2 hr. for the California best viewing of the solar eclipse and the “Rings of Fire.” I can never remember. Look directly at the sun, or don’t look directly at the sun. Flip a coin.

      • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 6:08 pm

        And they’re on pace to play 200 homegames, and 50 games against the Padres.

      • Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 6:08 pm

        And just 2 seconds after I posted that, ESPN showed a great shot of the solar eclipse. Hope you saw it on TV. I saved you a trip outside. You’re forever in my debt 😀

      • Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 6:14 pm

        Like they say about the SEC schools who beat up on The Sisters of the Blind Poor two or three times a year…”You only can beat who’s on schedule.”

        I understand the monetary reasons behind those little schools playing the Big Boys at their own home, but it’s just wrong. Plain. Simple. Wrong.

  68. Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 6:24 pm

    Stickman’s stat about runs created is significantly lacking. Most people who read fangraph’s know that the more accurate stat is wRC+. It’s weighted in all the same ways that OPS+, wOBA, etc is weighted. And when you look at Belt’s wRC+ he checks in at 107–one above fucking Nate (well behind Pagan who has a 130 wRC+) and mid pack on the team. And had that Met CF caught that can of corn he hit to him he’d be in the the lower third of the team. For a first baseman, that sucks……..

    • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 7:19 pm

      I figured you were searching for anything you could find to knock Belt.I could explain some of the problems with the stat( it’s fluidity is it’s strength and it weakness. A couple bad nights for Pagan and good ones from Belt and Belt could lead) but at least it shows how absurd it is to have Crawford in the 2.
      Anyway, I know these stats. He is not “well behind” anyone. Anyone the team above 100 could lead the team with one good week. Belt went from 107 to 98 based on today’s game.

      • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 7:24 pm

        All I did was produce a truthful, more evolved stat about runs created. Again, google it if you don’t believe it. And 98 sucks. As I said, to gravitate to Stickman’s faulty post from the Merc and not even BRING UP wRC+ is weak. You knew what the wRC+ stat was (at least I’m assuming you did, you know all the other ones and you are well versed in the fangraph stats) and yet you didn’t care to bring that one up. Hmmmm. Not surprising……….So now he’s down to 98? Shit, that’s the WRONG direction, he’s gonna be at a B-Craw level if he keeps that up………

      • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:10 pm

        You’re the dude ignoring Fangraphs number when they don’t further your POV. Don’t be challenging my truthfulness when I say I know a stat ,please- I don’t use it for the reason I gave you- The numbers are too fluid- it’s a new stat and IT is flawed.
        Anyway, once again I’m closing my part of the Belt discussion with you because you are reasonable when it comes to him. It was not fair to criticize our litte Angel when he was at the Mendoxa line and running around the OF like that Batman dude, but near daily trashing of Belt is just fine.
        You show me where wRC+ is more evolved, not not just more convuluted. Fact is, Belt HAS produced more runs per AB than the guys Willie said, the other main problem with wRC+ is that true runs produced can’t go DOWN. This is a fantasy stat.

      • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:56 pm

        Utter bullshit. You want to talk about *fantasy stats*? You just lost this argument. 5X5 leagues look at the following categories for hitters: BA, RBI’s, SB’s, runs scored, HR’s.
        Belt excels in NONE of those and he’s playing enough to at least make some noise in a single category of the basic 5X5 fantasy scoring system. He’s horrible across the board…….

  69. DJLoo said, on May 20, 2012 at 6:40 pm

    WTF is going on with Huff?

    • zumie said, on May 20, 2012 at 7:00 pm

      He’s The Forgotten Man.

    • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 7:15 pm

      It’s absurd. he has no business being on the team right now unless they’re cool with having a cheerleader hold down a roster spot. And if that’s the case, why not do what I said to do months ago? Have Franchez be a professional pinch hitter? No throw, just hit. It makes perfect sense……..

  70. Sportdude said, on May 20, 2012 at 6:56 pm

    Tim 6th time in 9 starts he’s given up 4 or more runs, vs. 7 all last year..
    Thanks for the cool stat willie D. I have to be easier on Belt…

    • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 7:14 pm

      not if you understood that the stat he posted is flawed……..

  71. Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 7:37 pm

    Scott Van Slyke with his first major league home run — a 3-run PH job to give “my” Dodgers a 6-5 lead.
    I think I’ll put that on a postcard.

    • Flavor said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:00 pm

      I’m not cool with the Alex Smith shtick so where do you think I fall on the Dodger-loving shtick?

      • Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:09 pm

        I guess you’re gonna love this one…We’re now 7 GB of “my” Dodgers and it’s not even Memorial Day. I hate to see the standings come the Fourth of July.

        Mayor Vaughn: You yell barracuda, everybody says, “Huh? What?” You yell shark, we’ve got a panic on our hands on the Fourth of July.

      • twinfan1 said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:21 pm

        You gave the division to San Diego in 2010. When were 7 1/2 behind on July 4 you were mocking anyone who thought we’d take the division. And no, it’s not different, giving the division to another team its just another schtick used to annoy everybody.

      • Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:49 pm

        As Dr. FRONK-en-steen so aptly noted…, but you have to remember that a worm… with very few exceptions… is not a human being.

        But you have to remember that the 2010 Padres…with very few exceptions…are not “my” 2012 Dodgers.

  72. Del Mar Dennis said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:41 pm

    Did you guys see A-Rod strike a pose and flip his bat when he thought he knocked one outta the park today only to see it reach the warning track?

    As Larry the Cable Guy would say…I don’t care who you are, that’s funny right there.

  73. DJLoo said, on May 20, 2012 at 8:50 pm

    I have a hunch that $22 million ruined Huff’s life.
    ————
    Milwaukee should cure the current 6 game homerless streak. Looking for a couple from Buster and # 1 for Belt………and (at odds of 50-1) # 1 for Burriss…

  74. James said, on May 20, 2012 at 11:17 pm

    BF, pretty funny that you think mentioning Nate’s OPS is an implicit criticism of the stat. If Nate could sustain his current OPS, he’d be a fair starting player for the Giants. The problem isn’t with the stat, it’s with the small number of PAs Nate has this year and the strong likelihood that he’d be well below 779 for the year if he had over 600 PAs.

    As for Belt, you can start crowing about how much he sucks when he’s played a full year. He still doesn’t have even 100 PAs after a quarter of the season. That’s just plain stupid on Bochy’s part, it’s not even really an argument. There’s no one on the roster right now who would make enough of a difference to the Giants prospects that he absolutely should play ahead of Belt. Brett Pill is just more circa 2007-09 Giants baseball. The biggest worry I see with Belt right now isn’t the Ks — it’s when he fouls off hittable fastballs early in the count. You may turn out to be right about him, which would be really too bad. And if he does ultimately disappoint, it won’t because of his body language or because of the manner in which he fails in RISP situations; it’ll be because he wasn’t skilled enough, despite the usually reliable indications that he’d be a good major leaguer.

  75. James said, on May 21, 2012 at 6:46 am

    Ah, just quickly read the actual intro and linked article :-). Briefly, I’m familiar with wOBA. The extra complexity isn’t worth the added “precision.” I’m a little less interested in individual stats than I am team stats, where any marginal distinctions are further devalued. I like things simple.


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