Checking Out Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster
I buy it every year, it’s invaluable to my fantasy player assessment. I’ll try not to bore you with the numbers since many of them are, well, *boring* and often not reliable in predicting an outcome. But more often than not the underlying numbers that Shandler uses paints a much clearer picture of a player’s past year and upcoming year than the normal baseball stats do.
For each player, in addition to the saberstats, they write a little blurb. It’s user friendly and I’ll share those blurbs with you here at the Flap for as many Giants as I can get to before the sun comes up and I need to start going to do 3-D life stuff…….
Brandon Belt: Mashed RH pitching in 2nd half though xBA remains skeptical. More power to come? .906 OPS at home so ATT is not killing him. xPA says power is still there, just waiting for more fly balls. Up: 20 hr’s
Brandon Crawford: Gainfully employed for reasons other than his bat. Still, 2nd half gives tiny, infintesimal hint of a spark. Not enough to hope for league average power, speed or contact ability. Just enough for him to get regular PT but his fantasy value rests in runs and RBI’s and nothing else.
Marco Scutaro: repeated solid contact % and H% combo, turned in a career year with stratospheric LD% (line drive) and 600+ AB’s. Without HR’s or SB’s, all the aforementioned and continued durability are the keys to his value. Advanced age is his biggest risk.
Pablo Sandoval: Injuries and off season woes feuled a near repeat of 2010. Apart from power outage, his basic plate remain in tact but conditioning remains an ongoing issue. high risk/high reward. Is house arrest with Jenny Craig an option? Minus some poundage: UP: .310/25hr’s/90rbi’s
Angel Pagan: 2011 now looks like the outlier. Even with 600at bats he couldn’t hit double digits in HR’s. But hits line drives at an impressive rate and that sets a nice batting average floor. Add in the SB’s and runs and he should maintain nice return for $20ish with full health.
Hunter Pence: on the surface, his consistent HR totals are encouraging. But something happened in SF that sent his 2nd half into a tailspin. If 2nd half contact % and ground ball % remain his future is cloudy. Power production is tied to 600+ at bats so pray his health grade holds up.
Andres Torres: Pro: above average speed, career best bb%, got on base vs LH at .382 clip. Con: stolen base opportunity collapsed in 2nd half, .214 ba vs RH the last 2 years. Power he displayed in ’09 and ’10 is not coming back. As a BA drag with little power he needs to run to have value, but age, playing time and stolen base % not on his side.
Tim Lincecum: try not to overreact to ugly 2012. I know it’s tough. Yes, control finally blew up but damage was due to fluky hr/f spike. Still, racks up K’s and S% and hr/f will regress. But it might not be enough if his velocity is still off.
Barry Zito: ended season with 3.03 ERA, 3.2 command in Sept/Oct then strong PS. But before that it was 4 PQS DISasters in a row and a season full of lousy BPI’s. Career best splits vs LH probably won’t repeat, nor will the 15 wins. Still only 1 positive RAR since signing mega-deal. Don’t expect another miracle in 2013.
Voggy: a worthy follow up to his luck-enhanced break out in 2011. When H% and S% finally failed him in 2nd half he displayed some encouraging skill growth (see DOm and COM). While xERA still isn’t convinced there won’t likely be too much regression.
Romo: Still owns elite CMD, even after it got cut in half and he’s equally unhittable vs LH and RH. xERA tempers expectation for a repeat but even a partial repeat holds value. In a pen full of ?’s he has demonstrated he can close so now he just needs an opportunity. Up: 40 saves.
Ok, that’s it! Sun’s rising…….