My SF Giants 2013 Preview….for a Cardinal Blog?
I was asked by a fellow member of the BBA (Daniel Shoptaw who is, coincidentally, a Cardinal fan featured prominently in Pawlie’s book “Baseball’s Starry Night”) to write a preview of the upcoming Giants season. Apparently, he does this for all the mlb teams before the season starts in the words of the bloggers for each team. It’s a very creative idea and I look forward to following his blog series titled “Playing Pepper” at his blog: http://www.cardinal70.com . His SF Giants preview doesn’t come out till March 21st but I thought we could just bang this out today.
Now, I think it’s important to note that the Cardinals are one of my all time disliked baseball teams. I’d say *most hated* but I just don’t have too much hate left in me. Winning 2 World Series in 3 years will have a softening effect on any fan. I’d like to say I hate Jose Oquendo, and I did tear up his baseball card and post it at the Flap before the 2012 post season vs the Cardinals. But that was just a silly ceremonial act by a juvenile fan designed to somehow influence the baseball Gods in our favor. Matt Holliday? Ok, I think I hate him a little bit. But truly, all of my past negative feelings related to the Cardinals were *washed away* by the storm in Game 7. As Scutaro said (courtesy of Bozo): “I spent four years in Oakland and I’d never seen rain like that in the Bay Area,” he said. “I’m playing deep at second base, two strikes away, one strike away from the World Series, and all of the sudden you feel this rain coming down. You think, `Is that a message?’ That’s the reason I did that. It came without notice, like, pow! It’s cool that people took a lot of pictures.”.
For me, seeing Matheny stand motionless on the steps of the dugout in the pouring rain completely soaked to the core of his soul was enough to get me to move from *hate* to *sympathy* for the team from St. Louis. And what Giants fan doesn’t love Mike Matheny? So, the past is the past and bygones be bygones, all that jazz, and I’m looking forward to writing this preview for Mr. Shoptaw. I am hoping all of you could take the time to offer a similar preview in the comment section. Hopefully it will paint a broader picture of how we see our team (winner of two of the last three World Series. And since this is for a Cardinal blog I’m gonna try to get that in as many times as possible)
Here are the preview questions:
1) How would you grade the off season?
2) Will Brandon Belt have a full time job this year?
3) What are the chances that Marco Scutaro regresses? (no bitterness from a Cardinal’s fan, why do you ask?)
4) what rookie will make the biggest impact in 2013?
5) What will be the final record of the Giants and where will they finish?
6) What one thing from your team are you most looking forward to watching?
I’ll just answer these and correlate them to the number above.
1) I would grade it a B+. We brought back every critical player from last season. And, unlike our post-2010 World Series win (the first of 2 out of 3 years :)) Sabean brought back a team that isn’t old and declining (and no, I don’t consider Scutaro *old and declining*, more on him later). Sabean also gets a B+ for NOT bringing back Bee Wheezy (who I didn’t want back anyway) and focusing instead on keeping together one of the best bullpen’s in either league. I also liked the Torres signing. His numbers weren’t as bad as they looked last year. His LD%, contact rate and bb % were all up last year. It looks like he’s finally abandoning his love of the long ball and if he can keep his legs healthy I think he will be a nice compliment to Gregor Blanco in a platoon role. Of course, we all wanted the right handed power bat to go out in LF but realistically that wasn’t ever going to happen.
2) Of course Belt will have a full time job this season. I think Posey gets a lot more games behind the dish in this second season removed from his surgery year. When Posey does play first base I think Belt is going to get a fair number of starts in LF. He’ll get his share of time off vs tough lefties but he’ll be a starter all year and I expect a solid year from him with more power.
3) Scutaro got hot at the right time last year and the Giants were the huge beneficiaries. He’s probably the main reason we were able to win our 2nd World Series in the last 3 years. Now, do I think he regresses? We live in an age where any player who has a spike in production is automatically thought to also be spiking something else into their body. I wouldn’t be shocked to find out that Scoots was on the juice last year but I don’t think he was. And while he is 37 I am going to consider him a *young* 37 since he spent the first half of his career as a utility guy. He doesn’t have a lot of miles on that body. And he’s obviously in great shape. So while I don’t expect him to hit .362 in 2013 (as he did for the Giants last year) I do expect him to continue to be a line drive hitting machine and one of the great leaders of the clubhouse. I’ll say he hits .285 in 2013 and I’d be fine with that……
4) This is a long shot, but I’m going to go with Kensuke Tanaka. Now, Tanaka might not even make the team. But I like his story and he’s easy to root for. He left a 3 million dollar guaranteed contract on the table in Japan to come try and latch on with the Giants. He became a fan of the team in 2010 after attending Game 1 of the World Series (a game I also attended). After watching them win their 2nd World Series in the last 3 years in 2012, he decided it was his dream to play for the Giants and he’s now in camp on a minor league deal. He’s 32 and he’s had some severe injuries in his career. He’s also, at best, going to snag the final utility spot on the team and the fact that he only plays 2nd base is not going to give him an advantage. But who couldn’t root for a guy like Tanaka? Plus, we don’t really have too many spots for a rookie to shine. At least, at this point.
5) I think we win 95 games this year and the NL West. And against all odds, since it’s really, really hard to do, I’m going to say we win our 3rd World Series over the course of 4 years.
6) I’m most looking forward to seeing Andres Torres in a Giants uniform again. He was the spirit behind the 2010 World Series win and he’s returning to a team that just won their 2nd World Series in 3 years with almost an entirely different cast of position players. That’s hard to do. Just seeing him in the dugout will be awesome and I’m rooting for him to cobble together one final decent season for the team he loves so much.
Oh, and did I mention that we’ve won two of the last three World Series? 🙂 🙂 🙂
Oops,too early for me, I’m back to bed.
If I can get Zeke off my pillow.
Standing pat is generally not a recipe for continued success. LF, the entire infield, RF, the closer position, Timmy and Zito- these are all real question marks. I’ll have a more thorough analysis later while I work up the view from atop Polly Hill..
I was pleasantly surprised at what Bochy got out of Hector, arias, blanco and even theriot last year. T, for the second year in a row, plays for the WS winner and doesn’t return. According to Shea he wanted more PT than Giants were willing to guarantee. In STL he got run out of SS job by Furcal 2011, which led to him starting at 2b (and hitting second) for SF til Scutaro arrived and lit everything up.
All 3 of those above who remain still have to bring it, and i’m interested to see who can continue to prove they belong and hang onto a spot and get some ABs. Maybe Brown forces his way into the mix.
I am excited to see what happens with Tanak too. When SF first signed him i didn’t think much of his chances but Abreu being dinged to start camp gives him a slight opening. If he shows he can play more than 2b does it increase his chance?
1) Off season? Sabes put together a known, proven championship team. So he gets an A from me.
2) Belt? Yes, starting 1B with about 25 games in LF.
3) Scutaro regress? Some but the Cards won’t see it. Ownage!
4) Rookie? We don’t need no stinking rookies. OK, I’ll go along with Tanaka.
5) Record? 95 wins, win the West.
6) Looking forward to seeing? Tie – A full, injury free year of Panda and Crawford’s glove (also hitting .260)
I favor Noonan fror the last infield utility spot and Peguero for the 5th OFer.
I think Ghead has been lobbying for Brock Bond or years and Bochy actually finally SAID HIS NAME this spring. I’m for Brock- I’m always for guys who are like I was- no power, defense, or speed.
Somehow the fucker keeps getting hits…
Don’t know these can be viewed without a subscription, let me know. The PECOTA projection s are out. Nate Sliver is the developer of the system.
I’m not endorsing the outlook, just putting it out for your reading pleasure or displeasure.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?tm=SFN
No subscription required to see the linked page. BP projects a 30 point drop in team OPS, and a modest but significant decline in the effectiveness of the bullpen. The latter wouldn’t surprise me, but I don’t see Posey, Crawford, Belt, and Pagan all regressing this year. And the numbers for Pence and Pablo seem right.
I think the numbers are low across the board, but I’ve looked a few other projections and they’re remarkably similar- modest drop offs from Posey and Pagan, Snow-Lite from Belt, no improvement from Crawford, no confidence in the LF position, etc…
About the only improvements generally agreed upon are a better year from Panda, 5 million buck production from our 13 million dollar RFer, a good year from Doogie Howser. I’m still working on my preliminary predictions, before the March 31 final “dead wrong” edition…
an interesting article showing how baseball helps explain American History: http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Baseball-can-impart-history-lessons-4284948.php
1) B, which is fine. The crucial moves in recent years occurred during the season, esp. after the AS break. 2) Belt will have a full-time job unless he fails utterly at the plate; in which event, see “1).” 3) Same for Scutaro, really. The way he played through the injury Holliday inflicted, however, gives me an irrational hope for resilience and sustained production, so I’m betting on him to hit close to .300 and to continue the terrific contact rate. 4) I have no idea who’ll get a good chance. 5) 92. 6) Lincecum’s resurgence and Torres carrying something less than 50 oz of wood to the plate.
I pine for the days when I carried 50 oz. of wood to the plate. In fact, I pine for the days when I simply made it to the plate.
Yeah, I realized as soon as I posted that that somebody would wood up over the 50 oz of lumber remark. I appreciate, however, the quality you added to the joke — the timbre of your pun.
Regarding the topic, I think the off season was an A-. For all the talk of getting a RH power hitter, i don’t remember seeing any go by that the g’s missed on. I like the fact that they brought in some more BP depth to look at. It looks like they’re standing pat but again, i don’t see anything that was worth pursuing.
Belt – his job to lose.
Scutaro – hit 360? nope. but i don’t see why he wouldn’t still be a good contact hitter, perfect in the 2-hole. will he regress from the PS, absolutely. But over the full year he should be the best 2nd baseman, 2 hitter that we’ve had in years.
Rookie – can’t think of one which is a good thing imo
I’ve had 94 the last three years and been pretty close each time with a winner last year. it still feels like a good number. if they stay healthy, they win the west. but as always, that’s a huge qualifier.
I’m really interested in watching this defense play together for a full year. they’re just really solid at every position and have some nice choices on the bench. The BZ story will be interesting for me as it is every year.
hitter face pitchers tomorrow. as FH would say: wooohoooo.
1. B+ sounds about right.
2. Looks like that’s the plan.
3. Slim. I expect another solid season for Marco.
4. Heath Hembree.
5. 92-70.
6. Raising another World Series championship flag.
1. Offseason? An A+. I hand out inflated grades very readily in year’s succeeding World Series Championships, even more so for years constituting the second such prize in three years, and even more more so in the years when I write a book called WORLD SERIOUS about same and am not shy about trumpeting such heartfelt pursuits, here or anywhere else. Plus, I like — LOVE — these guys.
2. Belt will have a full-time job this year, at 1B, for the reigning champs. He will hit close to .300 with 18 to 20 homers.
3. “Regress” is the wrong word to apply to Marco Scutaro. I admit his *numbers* will likely decline, but he will still be the guy I want up for the big hit or for the big play in the field. He will have his arms ready for more heavenly rain.
4. I don’t know enough about our rookies. I yield to Twin and all ye other experts on such matters.
5. We will wave 93 games, which will be enough for the Wild Card. And we will advance at least one round.
6. The thing I am most looking forward to is the repetition of the phrase “defending World Champs” as well as the guttural phlegm in the throats of announcers from ESPN and Fox and opposing MLB teams who have to force out those words.
excuse me: we will not *wave* 93 games but *win* that many
I hope for some new surprises if the Giants can improve that everyday lineup. Staying the same will not work if history is a guide. Giants must bring in new heroes or die with the old ones. I hope the pitching holds up but injuries unknown now will probably occur. Of course there’s a chance things will mostly work out again for another strong year. Perhaps a plague will flatten the Dodgers and their high price mercenaries.
I like the idea of a plague, of biblical proportions. Locusts would be my preference. Picture 874 trillion fecking locusts descending upon Chavez Ravine. Hollywood will love it, baby. Or Bollywood.
Locusts have always been my plague of choice as well.
“According to the first-hand account of A. L. Child transcribed by Riley et al. (1880), a swarm of Rocky Mountain locusts passed over Plattsmouth, Nebraska, in 1875. By timing the rate of movement as the insects streamed overhead for 5 days and by telegraphing to surrounding towns, he was able to estimate that the swarm was 1,800 miles long and at least 110 miles wide. Based on his information, this swarm covered a swath equal to the combined areas of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont.”
The swarm was a miscalulation by the Big Guy who had intended that the creatures would engulf Crazy Horse and prevent the disaster at the Little Big Horn in 1876. However, Crazy Horse escaped the thundering swarm which created havoc throughout the Midwest, as Winfred Cronkite reported :”The grasshoppers are on the move east, eating everything green in their road. One farmer south of this city had fifteen acres of corn eaten by them yesterday in three hours. They mowed it down close to the ground just as if a mowing machine had cut it. All the tobacco plants in the upper part of the county have been eaten by them.’”
God was feeling his oats back then, a simple lightning bolt or some bad firewater would have done the trick on Crazy Horse, but He was determined to see if what had worked so well in ancient times was still a viable weapon …
Sheesh. That is one cinematic locust plague. woe unto you, Dodgers and Angels.
It was kinda God’s version of invading Iraq and killing 170,000 people to get a guy who was having a latte in Kabul..
In today’s Splash, Schulman talks about Kent, who’s now in camp as a two week coach. I hope he’s teaching all the minor leage guys, if not anything else, to be a redass. Make the effort, do the work. That was his MO. Panik should follow Kent around like a puppy while Kent is in camp. Is Kent a HOFer? I say hell yes, even though now the HOF, to me, has been rendered near meaningless by the idiotic writers. If you value hard nosed baseball, there’s no reason why anybody should have a problem with him. Hell, if Sabes got a LFer in the off season that could hit like Kent, we’d all be creaming in our pants right now.
For the 6 years he was here, he played his a%% off for the Giants. Always gave the effort, was totally and absolutely clutch, and was a big reason for those successful late 90s to early 2000s teams. Sure, he probably got pitches to hit because of Bonds, but maybe vice versa a little, too. When he got pitches to hit, he hit ’em. I give him credit for getting in Bonds face from time to time, when nobody else would. As for PEDs, who knows whether he used any or not? Everybody in that era is under suspicion, just like now. So to me, it doesn’t matter one way or the other.
Lifetime .290 BA, .855 OPS, 377 HR, 1518 RBIs, 2461 hits, .500 SLG, 8498 ABs. .500 SLG for a 2b? Sheezus, that’s insane. At 1518 RBIs, Kent is 49th on the ALL TIME RBI list. ALL TIME top 50. Know who’s at #51? Mickey Mantle with 1509. Compare Kent to Joe Morgan? .271 BA, .819 OPS, 268 HR, 1133 RBIs, 2517 hits, .427 SLG, 9277 ABs. So, Kent blows Morgan away offensively, in about 800 fewer ABs, or almost two fewer seasons worth of play. I’m not gonna look, but I’d guess Kent blows away just about all other HOF 2Bmen in nearly all offensive categories. As for defense, he was average, with average range. But, he got the job done. If Joe Morgan is in, Kent cannot be denied, even allowing for the more modern era of when Kent played.
If I had to pick a 2Bman during my time as a Giants fan, of all 2Bmen who played that position for the organization — a span of over 45 years — of course it would be Kent. There is no other choice even close, including Robby Thompson and Tito. He’s a HOFer for sure, IMO, at 2B…
Over on the splash I responded to the version of this post you put up there. Your argument on the offensive production is a walkoff. Kent’s a HOFer. You nailed it. Morgan played 5 more seasons, played better D and ran the bases much much better than Kent. But that’s why Morgan’s a HOFer despite not putting up the terrific numbers at the plate Kent has.
This “HOFer for a 2B” approach, in my view, is absolutely valid. Both Kent and Morgan played key roles on excellent teams. They both propelled those excellent teams with their play. I think Morgan was more popular with the media. Unfortunately, the voters for the HOF live there. If Kent doesn’t make it, it’ll be yet another reason to treat the entire enterprise as a joke.
Yep, Joe and Kent, totally different players. Joe could run the bags and steal, better range and better glove. Kent had more power, bigger SLG. Joe played on some better teams while on the Big Red Machine, obviously. But, he also had stints with the ‘Stros and Giants and I’m probably forgetting at least one other team. Both deserve to be in HOF at 2B…
1. Offseason for Sabes is an A -. He re-signed the guys he had to. Whether they’ll regress or be near last year’s performance is a crapshoot, as always. But, he got Pagan and Scutaro back, which were “must do’s”. As for getting Torres and Ramirez back, that’s fine. I don’t see those two as major moves, though Ramirez should be better than friggin Hensley, but then again, who wouldn’t be? It must be remembered that Sabean’s offseason moves are never the be all / end all. We all know he depends heavily on mid-season corrections, almost as if they are part of the off season moves. I expect this season to be no different. Who knows? Maybe if Brown is tearing things up, he comes up in July. Of if one of the starters goes down, he has to go get another starter from somewhere.
2. Belt has the job, subject to Posey at first. I’m not quite as optimistic as Oracle on the 18-20 HRs, But, I’d say 15-16 is doable. Belt is getting to the age and # of aggregate pro ABs where he finds the power stroke, together with the light bulb going off on when and when not to swing. Just tell Meulens to F-off, and concentrate on pulling the trigger more often at close pitches. For a young player, he’s a disciplined hitter (unusual for SF) and can enlarge his zone. He needs to reduce the called third strikes.
3. Define “regress” is the key. Nobody can be as hot for a season as Scutaro was for the Giants the last two months of last season. He was magic. Hey, .280 with an OBP of around .335, with above average D, and some clutch hitting, and he’s gold.
4. Will the Giants have any rookies? My answer is not out of ST. Maybe at halftime. No clue who.
5. No predictions from me until they’re done with ST.
6. I’m looking forward to seeing how Timmeh does. He was awful last year. Yet, they still won the WS. Contemplate that for a second. He sucked. And, they STILL got into the POs and won the WSeries. If he could win 15 games this year, I can’t see how they don’t make the playoffs, unless one of the other starters craters (Zito?) or gets hurt. Secondly, I wanna see whether Pence can get back to his career numbers. He can’t hit .220 all season. Just can’t…
I don’t recall a prediction for Belt yet. Maybe you’re confused because I’ve predicted 20-80 for every Giant’s first baseman since Whitey Lockman..or maybe I did call it. If not, I will. Belt- 20/80.
Yes, it’s true-I was 5 when a K- Garden mate( Greg Flaveur) asked me what I thought Lockman would do in ’52. That SOB Flaveur has hounded me on that miscall ever since. Said it was the stupidest thing I’d ever said..
Well, until Ort-Rod…
Sorry, I went back and looked, Pawlie had the 18-20. My bad.
Well, now you’re off to predict 20 anyway, so OK. I hope you’re right. He’s got the tools and pop to do it, just a matter of execution and getting more comfortable as a starter, IMO. I think the kid has been beaten down a lot by management, and needs to get confidence…
What were the odds that you’d go from being hounded by “Little Flaveur” to “Big Flavor” 60 years later?
And one’s a Greg and one’s a Craig? Are you kidding???
Are you suggesting that it’s not true? Then you’ll never believe that I gave Petit Flaveur a bat that had been Tony Bartirome’s bat. Tony was the Buc first baseman in ’52 and I had also predicted that Tony would go 20-80. Greg trusted me then and bet a week’s lunch money on my call. The motherfucker Bartirome went out and popped ZERO homers. Flaveur lost his lunch money and 19 pounds and vowed that if he ever caught me he was going to stick that bat up my ass…
BTW- that’s like zilch HRs in 350+ AB-and SIXTEEN RBI… 16!
WTF happened to Ted? Haven’t seen a post from him in a long time.
Is he buried in some deep Ibsen role?
Anybody seen or heard anything?…
Buddy?
We exchanged a tiny, brief email a few days ago. So, probably okay, merely dormant.
Winter still grips us
Spring Training buds start to bloom
a dormant Ted Spe
I saw a show on MLB network yesterday: “Top 10 managers right now.” Various pundits shared their picks; most picked Bochy #1, and the others picked him #2. Somebody picked Scoscia (or however it’s spelled) #1. I don’t see it. A case could be made that his team under-performed their talent-level last year, IMO.
Yeah, Bruce has made his name here, hasn’t he? HOF talk now. Until he snookered Donnie Two-Trips ( AND the entire umpiring crew), he might have been slightly ahead of Heinie Smith among Giant’s managers…
Flav & I were especially hard on him back in the days of the “Bowker Gang”.
“Ort-Rod” is still the best nickname ever here.
I wish I had credit for the nickname instead of “the pick”. Who did coin the name? You? I’ll tell you what I’d kill for- editor status at the Splash…
It was coined by a comedic genius who posted under the name “West33”
Interesting article, Ewisco. Thanks for posting the link. Sounds like a cool professor and a cool class. My only criticism of the article is that, since the class is called “The History and Literature of Baseball,” it would have been interesting to see some of the assigned reading listed. But the article doesn’t give us any of the assigned readings. I tried to do a web search for that info but didn’t find it.
1) How would you grade the off season? Excellent.
2) Will Brandon Belt have a full time job this year? Yes and he will rake. I see a very good season for Brandon.
3) What are the chances that Marco Scutaro regresses? (no bitterness from a Cardinal’s fan, why do you ask?).There is a 100% chance he will regress. He was lights out last year, especially so in the 2nd half. He will still have an excellent season, but wont approach last season’s 2nd half numbers.
4) what rookie will make the biggest impact in 2013? No idea. Probably no one.
5) What will be the final record of the Giants and where will they finish? The Giants will finish first in the division, with a 93 win season.
6) What one thing from your team are you most looking forward to watching? Pablo Sandoval. Can he take the next step? I am rooting for him big time. I also am rooting for Tim, Barry, and Angel (Pagan) to have big seasons.
New post on my blog . . .
http://aroundtheworldwithblade.wordpress.com/2013/02/17/brisbane-birthday-bash-pfffffftttttt/
Jonathan Sanchez has a minor league contract w/ the Pirates. Stewart O’Nan tells me via email they are hoping he’d be a long shot for #5 starter. Local Syracuse-area guy and former Giant Jason Grilli is the Bucs’ intended closer, at 36 (oldest in MLB, not counting rivera, I believe). I — with many here — would love to see Dirrrrty do well.
Competition is as good in literary circles as anywhere else: http://www.amazon.com/Orange-Waves-Giants-Championship-Season/dp/B00ATRQQSO/ref=zg_bs_16315_94 Looks intriguing.
You’re right Loo, West33 was the best of the best. I guess he just decided to stop blogging. I hope he comes back one day
There’s a link to “Real Women” in the “Room B” list- already have some nice posts. Tell us about a woman or girl you admire.
https://oneflapdown77.com/real-women/
Our dear friend “Doctor T” is coming tomorrow. My job is to make the best thing thing she and Merna have ever eaten and their job is to make me two paintings for “my room”. I’m not a man cave kinda guy, it’s really just a former office/work/war room that’s now storage for some dinosaurs of the computer age. I kinda wiggle in and hope nothing happens where I have to get out fast.
I’m making a salad with red mustard and arugula..apples and honey-balsamic glazed beets will ring the greens. In the center will be a composed salad of olives/red pepper tossed with croutons. Perched atop all will be a boned chicken thigh stuffed with portabello mushrooms and gorgonzola…
Sooo-Night all, big day tomorrow. I’m very happy tonight.
Sounds delicious Twin.
Who’s bringing the Kaopectate?
Yeah, sounds like a good menu to me. I could use some abdominal movement, too.
I’ve been on heavy anti-biotics for 6 days, and they have my colon plugged up tighter than the commode in a one-toilet sorority house…
Too healthy…..beans and weiners are more to my liking.
1. C+ I’m not as psyched about standing pat as most are. We enter the season with no credible back up anywhere unless Vungo’s legs are back under him (more on that later).
2. I agree with most on Belt but I don’t want to see him in LF. .270. and yes- 20/80
3. Hoping for more than .270 8-55 or thereabouts from Marco is not realistic. But those numbers are OK- Get that from Crawdad as well and we be laughin’
4. Peguero- break out candidate/Hembree setting up or closing by EOY
5.90-72- the head says WC, but i’m a man of the heart- a squeaker to win the West- Dodgers and Dbacks get both WC spots
6. See #4- but most of all, and I’ll be “soppy”, as Tabby says- I’m happy I’ll be here to enjoy it again…(with you ingrates, misfits, and dunderheads)
You give their off-season a C+, but pick the Giants to win the division. That seems like a lot of wiggle room, IMO.
Wiggle room for what? I don’t back off my calls. They didn’t improve- hence the C + for the off season. But they kinda did win the WS.