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What Should the Giants Pay Buster Posey?

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on March 20, 2013

Buster isn’t a free agent until 2017 but there’s obvious speculation that The Giants want to lock him up for a long, LONG time so he never hits the open market. They could buy out a couple of years with something “Lincecumey* but I think it’s more likely that they go big. *Joe Mauer* big. Probably not *Joey Votto* big.

I loath big deals for all the reasons that we’ve already kicked around. But facts are facts. The Giants are 2-2 in world series wins with Buster playing all year. They’re 0-53 when he doesn’t do that. And you have to think Baer and cohorts believe they have a once in a baseball generation player on their team. They are going to sign him to big, big dollars.

He’ll probably only catch for a few more year, especially if he gets something big. He’s one more hit away from getting *cousin’d* into retirement as a catcher. He’ll move to first base and, ultimately, to DH (which the NL will adopt in the next few years). So I’m not worried about him having to catch into his mid 30’s. Do you give him a 10 year deal? Cause that’s what he’s gonna want. In 2011, a 27 year old Joe Mauer signed an 8 year/184 million dollar contract. Votto big time’d that by signing a 13 year deal for 263 million. I think there’s a team option on that one but whatever, the Reds are all-in with Votto. He was also 27 when he signed his deal, by the way.

But Buster’s 25 (turning 26 on March 27th). The Giants could give him 10 years/225 million and probably not look like idiots for doing it. I’d like to go no more than 5 years but I can’t believe Buster would ever go for it. Eight years would be preferable to 10. How about 8 years/200 million? At what point into a 10 year deal with Buster will we start gazing longingly at the Barry Zito deal?

He’s not going to hit .336 again. I’d root and hope for .300 from him on a yearly basis. And his HR total might never hit above 30-33, and that would be a career year. How many years would you want Buster playing first base hitting .285/20 bombs?

58 Responses

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  1. twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 5:16 pm

    Like any player in a position to make a lot of money in free agency, he’d be a fool not to explore the market. And the team would be foolish to offer him enough to make him think that exploring the market isn’t necessary. They should just buy out his arb years at Timmy money…

  2. zumiee said, on March 20, 2013 at 5:29 pm

    The point of the long contracts, for the players, is instant financial security. 8 years for 200 million sounds like a really good deal for all involved. The team gets his prime years, and Posey would get instant financial security beyond anyone’s wildest dreams. Instant financial security against anymore “Cousins” out there.

    • Flavor said, on March 20, 2013 at 5:36 pm

      Exactly. Buster wants a long term deal yesterday. He had his wake up call with the ankle. Take the 200 mil and thank God you live in a country that will pay you that much to hit and catch a ball for 6 months out of the work year…

  3. twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 5:46 pm

    I understand the point of long contracts, thanks though.

    • zumiee said, on March 20, 2013 at 5:58 pm

      You’re one of the few who would call him a “fool” for signing one right now.

    • twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 6:17 pm

      Well, as I said, the team could be foolish enough to make him reconsider waiting for free agaency. But actually, you would be one of the few who would think that exploring the market in 2017 would not be his best decision.

  4. Alleykat said, on March 20, 2013 at 5:56 pm

    Posey is the #1 face of the franchise.Sales of his jersey alone top baseball,well atleast in the bay area.
    He is the best catcher in baseball,some will still argue Yadi Molina,though I’m not buying it.
    He has plenty of endorsement deals going as well very marketable guy.
    Buster Posey =World Series just ask Krukow,when he said to him after his first one in 2010,enjoy this now cause it’s hard to get another one,which Buster came back and said “Why Not?”
    He can write his own amount in that he wants.Pay the Man.. 8/ 185 sounds great to me.

  5. twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 6:13 pm

    Posey, like any player in his situation, would take a risk by waiting for free agency, a risk that would be cushioned considerably by the 80 million he’d make in 2013-2016 if they bought out his arb years at Timmy money. But it’s not just about Buster, it’s about the team as well. And there’s considerable financial risk at 4 years at 20, let alone 8 at 25. Besides injury, there’s performance. Mauer got his deal, then missed half of 2011 and put out the kind of year in 2012 that we’d delighted to get- from Belt.
    Like I said- 4 years 80 milion total. That’s not what suggest they*will* do, just what I think they should do. And I think he’d take it.

  6. eddacker said, on March 20, 2013 at 6:20 pm

    [re yesterday’s thread]
    Like watching Lasorda fall over on the field during his days, Hanley has 2 strikes against him (doger and asshole) and I get a laugh out of pay-backs like these. And I do believe in karma. I will think “ouch, what a bummer” during my mirth with a quick “that’ll teach him not to tip”

    Got another ST game on UK tv today, same as yesterday, NY v Boston. No SF games until opening day v the dogers. wtg programmers @ espn

    • Flavor said, on March 20, 2013 at 6:22 pm

      Edd– I have 6 world clock’s set in my iPhone and London time is one of them. Cheers, mate.

    • zumiee said, on March 20, 2013 at 6:22 pm

      Those camera shots of Joe Girardi with sunglasses kind of remind me of Joe Camel.

  7. Flavor said, on March 20, 2013 at 6:21 pm

    well the question about how foolish the team is or Buster is will probably get answered fairly quickly. Heyman reports they’re a long way apart which suggests Buster wants a lot of dough. Maybe that’s just their starting point for negotiation, but I will be shocked if all that happens is they buy out his arb years……

    • twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 6:41 pm

      They’re obviously under a lot of pressure to make the kind of deal you suggest, and I’m not saying they won’t do it. But there are compelling arguments to not commit to contracts of duration.
      And from Posey’s POV, 80 miilion to get him to free agency does mean he’d forego even longer and immediate financial security but at the risk of losing millions and millions if he tested the market in 2017.

      • Flavor said, on March 20, 2013 at 6:50 pm

        80 million if he doesn’t get hurt. If he goes year to year and ruins his ankle in year 1, he’s fucked. 80 million is not guaranteed unless be stays healthy and he continues to excel…….

      • twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 6:52 pm

        If they buy out his remaining 4 years, it *is* guaranteed.And that’s what I’m suggesting,

      • Flavor said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:10 pm

        I haven’t looked it up but I don’t think there are too many 4yr/80 mil buyouts out there. There’s probably a reason for that. It’s usually 2 years.
        But like I said I haven’t looked it up just going off casual memory.

      • twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:16 pm

        Bumgarner took 5 years at 35 total. They can buy out Posey’s remaining years before FAgency at any figure the sides agree upon.

      • Flavor said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:19 pm

        The giants bent Bum over on that deal, you have to see that. They threw a basement level contract at a country bumpkin and he took it.
        And that’s hardly 4/80

      • twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:30 pm

        The dollar figure doesn’t matter, they can offer anything they want. And I posted about MadBum’s deal before. Who negotiated it? Uncle Festus?
        Where do you get they can’t make any deal both sides agree upon?

      • Flavor said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:33 pm

        I never said anything about that. Start reading my posts slower or something.
        Buster isn’t going to bend over like Bum did. He doesn’t have to and he won’t.

      • twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:42 pm

        Of course he isn’t- I said 80 milion 4 years- that doesn’t sound like bending over. And don’t give me bullshit about reading slower. I know exactly what you said.

      • Flavor said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:46 pm

        well than I guess we’ll be seeing him sign a 4 year/80 mil contract, right?
        It was the perfect thing for you to post to get a reaction– the one thing that WON’T be happening.
        But hey, it could happen. I get it.

      • twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:52 pm

        I said they’ll probably bend to pressure and offer a longer term deal. And can the shit that I offered my opinion to get a reaction. I offered what would be a a very reasonable deal for both. There was no need for you to be an asshole about it.

  8. JBat said, on March 20, 2013 at 6:24 pm

    Where are you getting that he’ll never hit .336 again? I think his best years are still to come and 30 dingers a year, or damn close, will be the norm. Coming off a shattered leg and he wins the MVP & batting title? That was the hard part. Barring any injury disasters, he’ll be a career .300 hitter, maybe 300-350 HR’s, imo.

    • Flavor said, on March 20, 2013 at 6:38 pm

      His BABIP was awfully high last year. Very often, that suggests a batting average that will fall significantly the following season.

  9. eddacker said, on March 20, 2013 at 6:39 pm

    Buster is a game changing player on the field and in the marketing department. With so many teams treating certain players like it is monopoly money why not buster? I choose to believe the Giants WILL draw a line – the stadium is sold out all year and merchandise is moving well. Other than tying up a future hall of fame player where is the return on a bloated contract?
    As a hitter he has certainly established his abilities while only at the beginning of a hitter’s ‘best years’ (27 – 3x).
    His skills as a catcher are avec excellence. And his body, combined with his dedication, looks fit for the long run.
    I say 7/190 could go a long way; DH or not.

  10. twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:11 pm

    It seems to me that they’d have to top A-Rod’s 10 years 275 million. I’m sure that’s what his agent would be telling him before he entertained an offer that included any years beyond 2017.

    • Flavor said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:17 pm

      Yeah, that deal looks like a good one to model.
      And A-rod and Posey have nothing to do with each other, different ages, different positions– can’t believe you swung and missed so badly on this

      • twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:35 pm

        Buster plays the most important position, he’s younger than Alex was when his deal was signed, and he’s the current NL MVP, I can’t believe you swung and missed so badly on this.

      • Flavor said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:39 pm

        You are fucking clueless. The comp is Mauer. And go take a look at their career stats and tell me Buster deserves 100 mil more.
        Don’t fuck with me tonight old man, I’m in a shitty mood already. And while I know you love fighting with people on a blog i.m not putting up with it tonight.
        Go re-arrange your fucking chandelier or something.

      • twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:45 pm

        So stop harassing me about my opinion. The comp is whatever he and his agent think it is.You’re picking the fight.

      • twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:47 pm

        And don’t call me “old man”.

      • Flavor said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:49 pm

        Contextually, it’s accurate

    • twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:54 pm

      It’s still uncalled for.

  11. DJLoo said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:43 pm

    You can’t give a catcher or pitcher too many years. I’d say 8/200 is the absolute ceiling…

    • DJLoo said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:51 pm

      But I think he’ll get less than that….7/175?

      • DJLoo said, on March 20, 2013 at 8:44 pm

        I’m down to 6/150…

      • Flavor said, on March 20, 2013 at 8:52 pm

        Shit, Buster’s agent better get on it, you’re the fucking Iceman negotiator! Lol

  12. DJLoo said, on March 20, 2013 at 7:53 pm

    Willie: I got New Mexico and St. Loo to go all the way at 32-1 each. Thought the odds would be half that.

  13. dirtnrocksnomo said, on March 20, 2013 at 8:10 pm

    .

    • Flavor said, on March 20, 2013 at 8:12 pm

      Come on, it couldn’t have been that bad 🙂

      • dirtnrocksnomo said, on March 20, 2013 at 9:06 pm

        I’d say Loo is pretty close with 8/200. I think Posey would prefer an out before 10 years, then go to ATL and cash in even more.

  14. twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 9:06 pm

    Olney has suggested that the Votto would be the comp- it’s a total of 251.5 million over 12 years counting the contract he had when the deal was struck. Heyman says a deal for just his arb years is a possibilty. Rosenthal says 7 years 120 million ( Huh?).So thoughts on this are all over the map. I think the team will likely submit to the pressure and sign him to a deal so exhorbitant that Buster won’t have to contemplate free agency.He’ll get his nest egg and everybody else will be lovin’ it too. For the first 4 or 5 years…

  15. snarkk said, on March 20, 2013 at 9:30 pm

    If I’m Buster, I sign away my 4? arb years +1, that takes me to age 30. No more. By then, he’s set for one more hellacious contract at current 2017 rates. So, now sign for 5 years at a total of $90M. Both sides get protection to some extent. If he gets hurt, he’s got $90M guaranteed, less the taxman’s share. That’s plenty to live on in Georgia for the next dozen lifetimes. What happens if Belt turns into a stud at 1B? Are you going to pay Buster an average of $22M a year or something over a decade to play mostly first beginning in 2015, if Belt turns into a 30/100 guy — then where does Belt go?…

  16. paulinasia said, on March 20, 2013 at 9:44 pm

    Yes, the guesses about Posey’s next contract are all over the place, which reinforces Buster’s status as a most significant player. Difficult to compare his situation to other players, mainly because I can’t remember (but I’m sure someone here with a better memory will remind me) another player in recent years who has had such impact so quickly. Two world series rings, one MVP, one batting crown, one rookie of the year, one comeback player, etc…. and he’s only played ONE full season in the majors, with total time of about two years. Wow, what do you do for an encore? I might tend to agree with Snarkk’s ball park figure of 5 years at ~ $20m a year. Can’t see the team going for more than that, and it would still give Posey a crack at one more big contract, IF he stays healthy.

  17. twinfan1 said, on March 20, 2013 at 10:02 pm

    “The Dynamics of Performance Over the Duration of Major League Baseball Long-Term Contracts” by Anthony C. Krautmann and John L. Solow of Journal of Sports Economics concluded that the incentive to perform well in anticipation of signing the next contract is such that players who who expect to sign another contract largely perform to expectations. This reinforces what Snarrk has posted and what I’ve thought as well in proposing 4 years. THOSE are where we get his best years, not the subseququent deal which would most likely be his last contract and where the study concluded “that players who are less likely to sign a subsequent contract have a large and statistically significant reduction in performance compared to expectations.”
    Let the Yanks have those years …

    • paulinasia said, on March 20, 2013 at 10:15 pm

      Completely agree. Hell, the Giants could already have had his best years. Giving him beyond 5 more would not be wise. I do expect he will continue to be of major impact up to age 30. Beyond that, it’s a crap shoot.

  18. zumiee said, on March 20, 2013 at 11:05 pm

    GLENDALE, Ariz. — Results of Wednesday’s MRI on starting shortstop Hanley Ramirez’s right thumb are not expected until Thursday, but the club fears he could be out two months or more due to an injury suffered in Tuesday night’s final of the World Baseball Classic.

    Ramirez was hurt diving for a ground ball at third base, a position the Dodgers had hoped he wouldn’t be playing during the tournament. Manager Don Mattingly said the Dodgers’ medical department, after speaking to colleagues with Team Dominican Republic, speculated that a mild sprain could sideline Ramirez up to two weeks. But there are fears of a more serious injury that could sideline him up to 10 weeks.

    • snarkk said, on March 21, 2013 at 12:35 am

      Lemmee guess: the next WBC will either have ZERO Dodgers playing in it, or their 29 year old AAAA first baseman who has no shot at ever playing in the Latrine…

  19. paulinasia said, on March 21, 2013 at 5:21 am

    It’s about 7:15pm Thur. eve here, so it’s just past 5am for ya’ll ‘Fornians, so no one will be reading this post or probably the previous several on this thread, so I’ll just say it, in response to the previous thread about being happy when people get hurt: When I read about the injury to Ramirez this morning, my immediate, and I mean immediate, reaction was an out loud and mocking “Ha ha!”… Of course, I, like most here, would never rejoice in someone’s pain and suffering. But to me, Hanley Ramirez is not a “someone”… he’s an asshole, and he’s a Dodger. He’s an undeservedly rich idiot in a ridiculously ugly blue and white clown uniform. I hope he’s out forever. And if not, I hope he will be totally irrelevant when he does come back. But of course, I don’t wish him any pain. None, not at all…..

    • Flavor said, on March 21, 2013 at 5:38 am

      well, you’re wrong that no one is reading this, 5am is my *shift* here at the Flap. But I totally agree with the rest of this post and you said it better than I could. Thanks. Enjoy your evening.

  20. Flavor said, on March 21, 2013 at 5:37 am

    I understand the point of signing him for 4 years/80 mil. That supports my *back of the base card card” phenomenon/affliction/disease that strikes all GM’s at some point in their careers. I just think that there will be too many factors that push the Giants towards agreeing on a mega deal with him. And the fact that they are reported to be *far apart* shows where Posey’s head is on this. He wants it all NOW.
    It took me a while to understand the mega deals because I couldn’t understand why so many men with such important jobs could be so stupid.
    But most of them (maybe all) understand these mega deals will turn to shit on the back half of them. The team counts on making a boatload of dough off marketing, not too mention the fact that they might win a world series or two with them in the early part of the deal.
    (side note: Zito did this backwards, didn’t he? His deal was shit from start to middle. Once he got to the end of it THEN he paid off with a world series win for us. And you could argue that while many contributed a lot, he was most critical to us winning it all last year).
    Most of the teams that sign the mega deals aren’t worried about payroll in later years because their tv deals are monsters that fuel their machine. I would guess that the Angels still make a lot of money despite their random, haphazard signings each year. Same with Detroit. Obviously the Yankees are hugely profitable with the YES network.
    Speaking of the Yanks, everyone is scratching their head about why they want to get under the luxury tax. Are they short on cash? Um, no. They just sold part of the YES network for 2 billion and distributed that among family and investors. My guess is they are just tired of paying what now is going to be, I think, .49 cents on each dollar they go over. Conversely, the Dodgers are only at .17 cents. And you can’t really blame the Yanks for getting tired of such an extreme tax. The difference between NY and LA is that LA will hit .49 cents in 8-10 years and they won’t give a shit.

  21. Bozo said, on March 21, 2013 at 6:38 am

    The length of the contract for Posey, I think, will determine if he continues to be a Catcher or not for the Giants. If he decides he wants a short contract and the Giants don’t feel they’ll be able to afford him going forward, they will probably keep him behind the dish. If they sign him long term I expect to see him transition to another position and not 1B. With Belt established and Ricky Oropesa on the rise, I don’t see Buster playing that position full time.

    Pablo’s contract ends next year so it’ll be interesting to see what the Giants do about that. Bochy has already stated that he thought Buster would make a great 3B.

    LF is also another option. Given Posey understanding of the hitters in the league, his positioning would make up for lack of speed. Add that to the young speedy OFers in the system (I’ve heard Juan Perez is actually faster than Brown), a CFer could shade LF if needed.

    And, I wouldn’t rule out 2B, again with the proper positioning it would just be learning the DP pivot, which I think he could handle (If Jeff Kent could do it, why not?).

    Speaking of 2B, I see Joe Panik has been putting time in there this Spring. I like that, makes me feel a bit more comfortable about the length of Marco’s contract.

  22. salty said, on March 21, 2013 at 7:55 am

    Thanks for bringing up the cable money and the fact the owners aren’t that worried about losing something on the end. Its a gamble they have to take sometimes. Price of doing business. Signing Cain was risky but it beats having him in puke blue this season.
    Most of these mega deals are not real sensible economically, at least to us who aren’t privy to the numbers..ie how much revenue is brought in and how many future fans it will result in.
    Back up the f- truck on this one. The notion we’ve seen his best already is hard for to comprehend.

    • salty said, on March 21, 2013 at 8:23 am

      But what’s the rush?


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