A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball

Going Beyond A Simple Win Prediction

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on March 24, 2013

I said yesterday that I’ve grown weary of the monotony of win-total predictions each spring. Predicting whether the Giants will win the World Series or not is more appropriate now a days……..

So now, we’re taking it up a few notches here at the Flap. This year, we will predict batting and pitching lines for all our most important players. Now, DO NOT start throwing your predictions out yet! That thread is scheduled for March 31st.

The categories will be….

For the hitters, list off your projected batting average, HR total, RBI’s and SB’s

For the pitchers, list off win total, ERA and K’s (except for Romo, just list off Saves, ERA and WHIP)

The List of 15:

Buster Posey

Mandown Sandoval

Brandon Crawford

Marco Scutaro

Brandon Belt

Gregor Blanco

Andres Torres

Angel Pagan

Hunter Pence

Tim Lincecum

Matt Cain

MadBum

Voggy

Barry Zito

Sergio Romo

A final rule to the game: you no play you no allowed to comment on other bloggers predictions.

________________________________

A bonus prediction (we’ll call it a tie breaker if you will): Predict the season stat line for Yasiel Puig. He’s the Cuban Dodger who isn’t even supposed to be on the team. Right now, I think I’d prefer him in Cuba. He’s making his demotion quite difficult on Two-Trips. He’s 10 for his last 11. For the spring, he’s batting .547. In 55 at bats he doesn’t have a walk but still has an OBP of .527 and a 1.414 OPS. Wow. If they don’t have a place on the team for this dude, we are in a sh!tload of trouble this season. πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

46 Responses

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  1. TedSpe said, on March 24, 2013 at 8:21 am

    Voggy?

  2. twinfan1 said, on March 24, 2013 at 8:29 am

    The only problem I have with HR and RBI being part of it is that it is dependent on playing time. BA, OBP, OPS seems a better set. Also, win total is a totally unreliable indicator of effectiveness. So I’ll cover all stats Craig has listed but I’ll add OBP and OPS for hitters and WHIP and quaity starts for starting pitchers.
    But I hope everybody participates. As Craig has confirmed, posts trashing other predictions will be deleted if one doesn’t participate…

  3. Flavor said, on March 24, 2013 at 8:45 am

    Yes, I forgot to include the “no play/no trash” rule.
    You can include whatever stats you want. Those are just the min to participate. I’m off OPS, have been for a while. I hope James doesn’t read the blog today. πŸ™‚

    • twinfan1 said, on March 24, 2013 at 9:00 am

      I’m just going with it because it’s familar to most. If I went with the more reliable measure of overall offensive value (wOBA), I’d be branded a commie pinko nerd with no sniff test abilities…

      • twinfan1 said, on March 24, 2013 at 9:30 am

        For those interested, an explanation of wOBA can be found here
        http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/woba/

        Last year, here were the numbers for that stat:
        Posey .406
        Milky .387
        Scooter .370 (SF only)
        Belt .339
        Panda .338
        Pagan .334
        Blanco .302
        Arias .296
        Hector .296
        Pence .291
        Crawdad .284
        Theriot .283

        Rules of Thumb:
        .400 Excellent
        .370 Great
        .340 Above Average
        .320 Average
        .310 Below Average
        .300 Poor
        .290 Awful

  4. twinfan1 said, on March 24, 2013 at 8:54 am

    Notes: Panda had pain throwing throwing yesterday. If he can’t throw w/o pain today, his opening day status may be in doubt. Bochy said the Giants aren’t currently considering surgery as an option for Sandoval….
    Wilson Valdez quickly found a new team, the Marlins signed him..
    No one is sounding alarms on Timmy yet…just the usual blather…
    Noonan strengthened his chances with a couple hits and playing both middle infield positions..
    More and more I think Gillespie will at least begin the season as the 5th OFer. I picked Peguero but they may want him to play everyday…
    Otero’s attempt to fool Bochy by going with the more mature sounding “Dan” this year (he reported as “Danny” last year ) might have backfired. After yesterday they’re considering sending him to Colma.,..

  5. Bozo said, on March 24, 2013 at 9:27 am

    Posey – .312 BA, 23 HR, 109 RBIs, 2 SB

    Sandoval – .295 BA, 33 HR, 114 RBIs, 1 SB – NL MVP

    Crawford – .264 BA, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 10 SB – GG

    Scutaro – .281 BA, 7 HR, 72 RBI, 7 SB

    Belt – .298 BA, 19 HR, 93 RBI, 15 SB – GG and buys a new cow

    Blanco – .310 BA, 7 HR, 42 RBI, 33 SB – GG

    Torres – .217 BA, 4 HR, 22 RBI, 5 SB – Hampered by Leg injuries.

    Pagan – .273 BA, 8 HR, 60 RBI, 35 SB – 17 Triples

    Pence – .301 BA, 25 HR, 97 RBI, 8 SB – wins MLBs new Fucking Goofy award

    Lincecum – 15 W, 3.42 ERA, 197 K,

    Matt Cain 18 W, 2.98 ERA, 189 K – Cy

    MadBum 16 W, 3.27 ERA, 192 K – leads the league in snot rockets for the fourth straight year

    Vogs – 14 W, 3.52 ERA, 143 K

    Zito – 10 W, 4.40 ERA, 120 K – Retires at end of the year to start a restaurant in Riverside CA

    Sergio Romo 12 S, 2.15 ERA, .899 WHIP – Returns to set-up guy role at the break.

    Yasiel Puig – suspended for 50 games

    • Flavor said, on March 24, 2013 at 9:54 am

      What happened to 3/31 lol
      I’ll re-post it for u then. Unless you all can’t wait and I guess there’s no reason we couldn’t do this today

      • Bozo said, on March 24, 2013 at 10:02 am

        Oops, my bad. I just wanted to be able to trash other posts early I guess.

      • twinfan1 said, on March 24, 2013 at 10:08 am

        Yeah, you darn clown. Now I can’t ridicule your picks until I make mine.

    • xoot said, on March 24, 2013 at 12:40 pm

      2 SB for Posey, but both’ll be steals of 3B, right?

      • Bozo said, on March 24, 2013 at 1:03 pm

        No xoot, one will be home. Come on now, no props for Puig getting a 50 day suspension?

  6. Alleykat said, on March 24, 2013 at 9:50 am

    It’s alittle dead in Colma, so Danny needs to pick up his game or he will be gravely digging out of Bochy’s doghouse.
    I’m all in with Peguero starting the season as the 5th OF.He has been impressive hitting to all fields and adds extra speed the team can use.
    But would not be shocked to see Gilliaspie get the shot as well.Boch just might the RH bat off the bench with extra pop.

    • twinfan1 said, on March 24, 2013 at 10:05 am

      I’m not against Peguero getting the 5th OFer job, I just think they may want him to play more than he would in that role. And as you note, Gillespie has shown more pop and somebody has to fill the Pill void πŸ˜‰

  7. James said, on March 24, 2013 at 10:17 am

    Quick note on yesterday’s thread and Timmy’s FB velocity: He was at 93-94 at the beginning of his first ST game, but by the time he was pulled the FB was at 90. My guess is he will not be a lot better this year than last, if he can’t sustain the 92-94 range beyond 2 innings. Hey, maybe innings 6-8 are in fact where he will add the most value from here on out.

    OPS . . . think of it this way. There are more precise measures of offensive effectiveness than OPS, but, for the typical fan, none of them are as readily available and easily calculated. More importantly, the extra precision doesn’t help us make significantly better general, day to day distinctions between the value of one player versus another (see for example http://www.baseballexaminer.com/somnal/statistics/statistics08_OPS_vs_wOBA.htm.)

    The difference between a 120 and 105 OPS still gives you a lot more information than does .265BA/15 HRs versus .280 BA/18 HRs. The player with the 265 BA could easily be the one with the 120 OPS.

    BTW, apropos of another earlier post, before the WS, I think I pointed out that the Giants had a higher OPS+ than the Tigers, and that the real advantage Detroit had based on the season stats was the pitching.

    • twinfan1 said, on March 24, 2013 at 10:32 am

      And how our guys did by OPS vs. wOBA is very similar. Same with OPS vs. wRC+. I’ll be going with OPS.

    • twinfan1 said, on March 24, 2013 at 10:47 am

      I presume when you say 120 OPS that you are referring to OPS+.. am I correct?

      • James said, on March 24, 2013 at 11:24 am

        Well, depends on whether you are comparing players on one team or across the league :-). Buster’s OPS+ is pretty abstract compared to the number you get by adding BA and SP.

      • James said, on March 24, 2013 at 11:26 am

        Ha, OBP, that is!

  8. Flavor said, on March 24, 2013 at 11:03 am

    James– you described the main value of OPS perfectly.
    I have the obvious issues with it (it incorrectly weighs OBP and slugging % equally and I think slugging %, in general, is a poorly constructed stat since it over-values the importance of extra base hits) but the MAIN reason I don’t really use it anymore is because I wasn’t finding any correlation between my winning fantasy league teams (and OPS) and my losing fantasy league teams (and OPS).
    And since fantasy player analysis is my #1 interest I have back burnered that stat for the time being (as I have also done with defensive metrics).

  9. snarkk said, on March 24, 2013 at 11:30 am

    Do we have a man in Cuba?
    If not, I suggest we get one. Or three…

    • James said, on March 24, 2013 at 11:45 am

      We should not operate with or in a . . . vacuum.

  10. twinfan1 said, on March 24, 2013 at 11:31 am

    Never the less, OPS is a valid measurement of offensive production, as there’s little difference between how players rank by OPS, OPS+, wOBA, and wRC+…

    • twinfan1 said, on March 24, 2013 at 11:42 am

      And yes, I’m comparing for our team. If we use OPS it’s just as valuable in comparing production as any of the more sophisticated stats. Other than Pablo being slightly ahead of Belt in OPS, our starting 8 rank in the same order by OPS, wOBA, and wRC+..

    • snarkk said, on March 24, 2013 at 11:55 am

      OPS is valuable to me.
      I can understand it…

  11. PawlieKokonuts said, on March 24, 2013 at 1:50 pm

    Yasiel Puig already wins the annual Clint Hartung-Randy Elliott Award. I do admit I love his name.

    • zumiee said, on March 24, 2013 at 2:01 pm

      Where to play him, though? If he takes Crawford’s spot in leftfield, then the Dodgers are left without much for a lead-off hitter, unless they try Puig as kind of a Bobby Bonds type of lead-off hitter. High slugging percentage, but high strikeout totals. Another option is Mark Ellis as their lead-off guy, and that’s pretty weak for a lead-off guy. And Dee Gordon at lead-off is a joke. The Dodgers have no idea what they’re going to get from Crawford anyway, so that will mean 2-Trips has some serious actual managing to do. More so with the loss of Ramirez for a while.

  12. PawlieKokonuts said, on March 24, 2013 at 2:01 pm

    Snarkk, still nursing your Cal loss? I won’t talk any more trash than that. I thought both teams were sloppy.

    I continue to be perplexed by the apparent lack of control teams have over injured players and their regime for recovery. Case in point: the Mets and Johan Santana. From what I’m reading, it goes like this: Santana pitches perfect game. After that, he does not regain form, is injured. Gets shoulder surgery. But here’s the gap: the Mets are said to be disgruntled that Santana came into camp with a weak arm. He apparently rested it over the winter. Now he supposedly needs to strengthen it. (He may not pitch for months, if ever.) These are black-and-white questions that should be answerable: Was Santana told to rest or work out? Can the team make such a simple demand on its huge, Zitoesque financial investment? If not, why not? (collective bargaining agreement?) In fact, wouldn’t a team want to supervise to the Nth degree a player’s rehab? (If you recall, the Mets had a dispute with Carlos Beltran over knee surgery.)

    • snarkk said, on March 24, 2013 at 8:19 pm

      Indiana will take care of Boeheim.
      Then the NCAA will slap some penalties on his boorish ass. I have a huge dislike for the NCAA, but if they are going to lower the boom on Boeheim, I’m all for it…

  13. Flavor said, on March 24, 2013 at 2:10 pm

    Zito having another nice start vs Angels. His spring era is 2.81. Has this been his best spring ever?

  14. zumiee said, on March 24, 2013 at 2:10 pm

    Has anyone read Robert Coover’s 2011 baseball novel “Universal Association Of Baseball”? It’s gotten some great reviews, and I’m giving it a thought; but the Amazon description makes it sound like it’s a heavy-handed satire of Fantasy baseball. The main character basically descends into insanity, I guess. Not sure that would be very entertaining reading. Here’s the description.

    “J. Henry Waugh immerses himself in his fantasy baseball league every night after work. As owner of every team in the league, Henry is flush with pride in a young rookie who is pitching a perfect game. When the pitcher completes the miracle game, Henry’s life lights up. But then the rookie is killed by a freak accident, and this”death” affects Henry’s life in ways unimaginable. In a blackly comic novel that takes the reader between the real world and fantasy, Robert Coover delves into the notions of chance and power.”

    • PawlieKokonuts said, on March 24, 2013 at 2:18 pm

      appeals to me; thanks for sharing, as the saying goes

    • xoot said, on March 24, 2013 at 3:49 pm

      That Coover baseball novel was one of his first, wasn’t it — back in the 60s? I remember greatly enyoing Pricksongs and Descants when I was a, what’s the word, student. I sort of veered away from Coover after that novel of his about Nixon, which featured US Presidents getting reamed by the Washington Monument. The Public Burning.

  15. Macdog said, on March 24, 2013 at 2:14 pm

    Looks like the Phils have released Yuniesky Betancourt, who, FWIW, tore it up this spring (1.025 OPS). Might the Giants be interested?

    • Flavor said, on March 24, 2013 at 2:29 pm

      Sure. I’d take him. Btw, why don’t the Yanks just do the same thing (ie, wait till the last cuts of ST happen). Picking up V-Wells today just seems so…..stupid

    • twinfan1 said, on March 24, 2013 at 6:47 pm

      Yuniesky is in every conversation when the subject of worst player in the game comes up…

  16. xoot said, on March 24, 2013 at 4:05 pm

    Zito’s had a great ST. No HRs, great curve working. Buster, on the other hand, has been off his swing. He got under two pop ups yesterday he would’ve crushed last season. He’ll get on track before the season starts and end up with numbers just a bit below last year, maybe a few more HRs. (2 SB sounds more or less right.) But what about Zito? Is this *stuff* for real? Can we expect another 2012-like season from him? I think so. So I have two of the 15 contest items under control. How do you guys find time for this *stuff*?

  17. Bozo said, on March 24, 2013 at 4:27 pm

    Not sure why no one has said anything about Hunter’s ST. I know ST numbers don’t mean much but he’s quietly had a damn good Spring.

  18. Flavor said, on March 24, 2013 at 4:59 pm

    Hembree threw big gas in the 9th and closed out the game. Zito’s ERA for the Spring will end at 3.00– a nice, tidy number. Last year his spring ERA was 7.96.
    The Giants will try to win their 15th in a row with him on the hill in his next start. Considering where Zito’s been, this streak has got to rival any of the great streaks in sports history…….

    • DJLoo said, on March 24, 2013 at 5:18 pm

      Is HH gonna make the team?

      • snarkk said, on March 24, 2013 at 8:21 pm

        No. Check back in mid-season…

    • twinfan1 said, on March 24, 2013 at 6:21 pm

      Craig, the 14 game win streak is trivia,not a monumental achievement.

  19. Flavor said, on March 24, 2013 at 5:00 pm

    and in case you guys aren’t paying attention, Hunter’s hitting .352 this spring.
    πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

    • snarkk said, on March 24, 2013 at 8:17 pm

      Pence is going oppo when the pitch calls for it. He’s not trying to pull everything…

  20. twinfan1 said, on March 24, 2013 at 6:26 pm

    It’s funny, all the lip service about ST numbers not meaning anything, then suddenly they do. Reminder: they don’t.


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