WAR–What is it Good For? Absol….
Ok, I’m not going to finish that headline. It must be a stat that has value. I don’t understand how’s it’s calculated. Most people don’t. It’s a number (expressed in runs–about 10 runs to one win) that is called a player’s *worth* over the course of a year. This number (runs saved or produced) is seen as value to his team over a hypothetical replacement player from AAA. It measures things like how good of a base runner he is, did his ballpark help or hurt him, his walk rate, extra base hit rate, his defense….it goes on and on.
Because it factors in defense and other metrics that don’t count in a 5X5 roto league I pay very little attention to WAR.
Here are the current top WAR players in MLB:
There are some nice names on that list but any metric that has Russell Martin ahead of Miguel Cabrera is going to have me tune out in a nano-second.
Fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com calculate WAR differently but they are considered the top 2 sites for WAR calculations. I took this example from an espn article that I read this morning: Heading into this season, Fangraphs gave BJ Upton a 13.9 WAR over the last 4 years–that is considered all-star worthy, one of baseball’s top 50 players over the same time period. Baseball-reference gives him a 7.2 WAR over the same 4 year period, which is actually a little worse than an average major league player. After giving him 5 years and 75 million, Braves fans are probably anxious to see which site was correct. After his terrible start, Braves fans probably feel that both sites are FOS.
40 games into the season, here’s where BJ Upton ranks in terms of WAR compared to all other outfielders:
That’s not a misprint. He’s dead last.
So excuse me if I don’t find the WAR stat as titillating or tantalizing as the math geeks do. Here are the current standings from my NFBC league:
It’s a 12 team league but the overall competition is comprised of 1140 teams. $350 entry fee. In addition to the $1400 you take home if you win the league, there are bonuses for the top 20 overall (70K to winner, 15K for 2nd, 10K for 3rd…on down). As you can see, I’m destroying my league and I’m 25th overall (out of 1140 teams) Sorry, in advance, to those who don’t find humor in my team name.
Anyway, I don’t have a single clue what the cumulative WAR number is for this dominant team. And I could care less……
A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball 
*War* was a tune I always dug from Bob Marley,,,I think Sinead O did a kind of wacko version too.
Btw, 2010 J. Sanchez had a WAR of 3.7 (B/R)…and had lowered his ERA to 3.07 and dropped the WHIP to 1.23
I’ve read a couple novels lately that I really enjoyed by author Junot Diaz, and in one set in the DR during Trujillo dictatorship he uses the word *fuku* to describe a powerful type of curse that gets laid on a family. I think either Chase Utley or one of his latin teammates must have done this to JS, who seems to have been cursed ever since. And has been unable to find a *zafa* or cure to reverse it.
Just here to register my approval of your name in that fantasy league. I’m sure some admin is doing a slow burn somewhere.
absolutely. And my master plan (for a master joke) was to have this team be so good that every day my fellow 1140 team owners checked the overall standings (and keep in mind, most of the higher end $$ fantasy players are math geeks) they’d all be forced to do a collective slow burn. At 25th place, and climbing, my ultimate goal is nearly reached!
Who are you in this fantasy league Flav? Are you in first?
My 100th post on my blog just completed.
http://aroundtheworldwithblade.wordpress.com/2013/05/16/some-post-round-the-world-trip-thoughts/
Nice number, but I am awed by the magnificent Big Flavor – who churns out a 100 posts approximately every 3 months, then eats nails for dinner to celebrate. Wowsa!
yes, that’s me in first. It would be impossible for me to be 25th out of 1,140 other teams if I wasn’t in first place in my individual league.
I’ll upload my team later today if anyone feels bored and wants to figure out my team WAR number.
I churn out a lot of posts but most bloggers don’t read them. It’s all about the content of the comments below the threads. And that’s totally cool with me.
You blog, by the way, was fantastic. I was truly amazed at how detailed your threads were, especially considering your challenges with internet access.
That is frickin’ unbelievable Flav. I have no idea about anyone else, but my interest in FL is high and I would appreciate a regular update on how you are doing. Perhaps, a link to the right to access your standings. I would love to see you win the $70k. How big would that be? Wow! Similarly, WHEN THE HELL ARE WE GOING TO GET OUR OWN FLAP LEAGUE LINK ON THE RIGHT????*
You’re right about your blog. However, it is unique from other blogs, insofar as the participation of readers (comments). No blog on wordpress to the best of my knowledge gets the page views and comments that your blog receives. That’s impressive in my opinion. Thank you for the kind words regarding my own efforts.
* Just so there is no mistaking my request to add a link to the Flap League, I am not doing it for personal recognition – I am floundering away in 6th place and at one time was in last place before Chi insisted upon that spot. 😉 The victory of a championship will be sweeter when I eventually kick all your asses by the end of the year, as I will have risen from the lowest depths of mediocrity.
I have a secpnd NFBC team, too. That one is in 3rd place in it’s league, 197th overall. And I think I like that team a little better.
I’ll post both teams (it’s $350 a pop so I didn’t want to go past 2 teams) in a link to the right at some point later today.
I’ll put our Flap league standings over there, too. Good idea.
Maybe I’ll compare the cum WAR for both my NFBC teams and post that—could be moderately interesting to compare.
The trip was the main reason I bailed on the pay league. I knew I would have multiple issues trying to stay connected via my Tablet. Right now, I am in two leagues – in 1st in a Yahoo league and 4th in another league hosted by Fox. Both are 12 team leagues.
Using the WAR stats after 25% of the season is completed is not terribly instructive. There will be disagreements about any stat but looking at the 2012 NL WAR leaders and the 2012 MVP voting. Top 5 WAR leaders:
1. Posey
2.McCutchen
3. Braun
4. YMolina and Wright tie
Top 5 MVP vote getters:
1.Posey
2.Braun
3.McCutchen
4.YMolina
5.Headley (6th in WAR)
(Wright was 6th in MVP)
It’s a bigger topic than there’s room for but WAR is quite obviously a uesful stat, IMO.
Here’s where our guys ranked, by position, in 2012 by WAR. I can see plenty of disagreement already.
C Posey 1st
1B Belt 4th
2B Scooter (full season) 9th
3B Pablo 10th
SS Crawford tie 5th
LF Melky 3rd Blanco 6th
CF Pagan 3rd
RF Pence (full season) tie 14th
Brewers might have something in the Aoki kid. In list above he is one of few guys with more walks than Ks, has 4 bombs and an .384 OB.
Funny Zum mentioned O Cab from his Boston days. They won and yet didn’t want him back, which I’m also pretty sure happened when he played for the Angels. I always wondered just what this guy did to alienate people, but it must have been serious, and maybe hidden in the clubhouse among teammates.
Speaking of blog numbers I stumbled on to the “Mike Scoscia’s Tragic Illness’ blog a couple weeks ago and was amazed at the level of comments. Easily 400 per day. Of course 2/3 of them had nothing to do with baseball or the Dodgers (what the site is nominallly about). Weird site with some fairly astute folks.
Shit, yesterday’s thread had 1534 comments.
Chuck, is that a wordpress blog? I curious . . . By the by, Flav’s blog actually makes money for advertisers. I forgot the link, but I think if you just google his blog, there is a site that measures EVERYONE’S blog and his came up as being worthwhile to advertise with, thus the ads you see here at the top of each thread.
I don;t know. Here’s the website.
http://www.mikesciosciastragicillness.com/
Xoot’s the one that mentioned it a little bit ago.
Even on FG there is considerable disagreement on how to measure defensive metrics, what is more accurate, etc. Obviously, SF defensive lapses had a lot to do with poor showing in Toronto. Having a GG SS like Crawford (or at any position for that matter) is a tremendous advantage in keeping down runs allowed and wear and tear on the pitching staff, regardless of what he does at the plate.
Fantasy ball is just that…it’s not real baseball. To throw out all defensive stats and only measure offensive production for position players does not present a true value of what a player is worth to his team, only a fraction.
And what is that fraction?
Welcome back Blade! Glad it all went well without too many mishaps.
Thank you Chuck. Yes, everything did go well without too many hiccups.
“Fantasy ball is just that…it’s not real baseball. To throw out all defensive stats and only measure offensive production for position players does not present a true value of what a player is worth to his team, only a fraction.”
Right on. Defense is harder to measure than offense, obviously. UZR, for example, is based on play-by-data and even a full season can be too small a sample, so it’s best in at least 3 year increments. Another measure of defensive wins above replacements is Totalzone, used by BR. Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is another. If one wanted to be as thorough as possible. all three could be used to arrive at a pretty fair value.
But Willie’s statement is vaild whatever “fraction” defense is valued at. In real baseball, hitting is not the only measure of a player’s worth.
Yeah Blade welcome home!
Could of made a killing on all the Giants baseball gloves overseas since they didn’t know how to use them in Toronto.:)
Thanks AK. Good to be back home again. 🙂
” there is a site that measures EVERYONE’S blog and his came up as being worthwhile to advertise with”
Whatever stats they use to measure value to an advertiser are suspect. At least WAR is based on events that definitely happened. A successful ad, like a winning team, needs actual humans to create it and buy the product. There are computer programs that can generate ‘unique’ page views, but none that can fill a ballpark or turn a double-play.
WAR is a better measure of a player’s worth than the dollar values you get in fantasy baseball magazines. The problem with the rotisserie format is that stats in some categories are overvalued, like stolen bases are worth more than doubles, and it doesn’t consider the closeness in categories. A team that scores 100 runs and allows 50 is not going to be tied with one that scores 101 and allows 200. And don’t get me started on pitcher’s W-L record. In the magazine I have before me, of the top ten ranked starting pitchers, only King Felix is among the league leaders in wins, justice I suppose for his bogus, fantasy value Cy Young Award.
Team WAR is probably a good stat to make wagers on, but it doesn’t measure the human factors, the manager, team chemistry, and the most important stat of all in the real world, attendance. It’s all about the humans, computers don’t value entertainment or passion.
You fellas that are defending the WaR stat– I do see your points. Playing fantasy baseball, whether it’s a free league or high stakes, isn’t for everyone. I find it to be extremely entertaining.
I’d go so far as to say that I can clearly see the value in GM’s who use WAR as a tool to evaluate MLB talent..
It seems like kind of the equivalent of the QB rating in football. It’s kind of murky how the QB rating is determined, but it has some value as a way of ranking QBs. But, like the WAR ranking in baseball, it’s very arbitrary. To be taken with a grain of salt.
I’m not a big advanced stats guy.. Shit, I still go by BA, HR, RBI, OBP, SB, BB, etc. .
WAR is hardly arbitrary… it’s just hard to understand,. I suspect that most of the problem lies in the ” replacement player” concept and also that many fans place an unrealistic number on how many wins a good player is worth.
Here’s a pretty plain English explantion:
http://tinyurl.com/azlfd8a
“Trammell stole 236 bases in his career and was caught 109 times. While the caught stealing total is a bit high, he also rates well at taking extra bases in a variety of situations. For this reason, we add 21 more runs above average.”
Yeah, nothing arbitrary about that.
I would have added 19 runs 😉
It’s determined by people who know of such things. For instance- every play in the entire season is part of what helps arrive at the number. But your’re right, let’s take the NL MVP away from Buster,last year’s WAR leader.
Z- The peope at FanGraph’s know more than you. They even know more I do 😉
YOU may take WAR with a “grain of salt”, but:
“baseball’s front offices, the people in charge of $100 million payrolls and all your hope for the 2013 season, side overwhelmingly with data. For team executives, the basic framework of WAR — measuring players’ total performance against a consistent baseline — is commonplace, used by nearly every front office, according to insiders. The writers who helped guide the creation of WAR over the decades — including Bill James, Sean Smith and Keith Woolner — work for teams now. As James told me, the war over WAR has ceased where it matters. “There’s a practical necessity for measurements like that in a front office that make it irrelevant whether you like them or you don’t.”
Jeremy is a good dude. http://deadspin.com/jeremy-affeldt-returned-500-000-the-giants-paid-him-by-507629170
1. Angel Pagan (S) CF 0.6
2. Marco Scutaro (R) 2B 1.4
3. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B 1.5
4. Buster Posey (R) C 1.6
5. Hunter Pence (R) RF 1.5
6. Brandon Belt (L) 1B 0.8
7. Gregor Blanco (L) LF 0.5
8. Brandon Crawford (L) SS 1.3
9. Matt Cain (R) P
. I put this year’s WAR next to each player. Remember they are cumulative.
Crawford was 8th in the NL last year in defensive WAR…not among SS, but all NL players.
For overall WAR, 5.0 is considered All-Star quality. Scooter, Panda,P osey, Pence, and Crawford would all have above that at their current pace.
Isn’t it just a testament to how shitty Crawfish’s replacement would be? Rail me as you will, I don’t realy care, but isn’t this the case?
Look, it’s cool if you just don’t understand.the stat. But it’s a valuble tool, not PERFECT, but probably the best at measuring every facet of performance.. Crawford’s WAR would be 5.2 at seeson’s end, by the way. A replacement level score is always 0
.
I would definitely agree that it’s best at measuring all facets of performance– we just value the facets differently.
Obviously I don’t want a Giant to be shitty defensively. But if he’s on my fantasy team, I’m not concerned with D unless, as I said, it’s shit (as that would affect the outcome of Giants gms negatively).
And with players I own who aren’t Giants I just want their D to be good enough to keep them in the LU…
And no way in hell is Rick Ruschel a HOFer, ever. Come on…
I’m not railing at you. But the number for Crawford or anybody is the numbers of wins he gives the team over relacement level. Again, the number for replacement level is always 0.
A common mistake fans make, and we all do it, is to think, say, Buster Posey was worth one win when he hits a walk off. That’s quite obviously not true if we think about it.- the pitchers and other position players contribute positiveyl or negatively in the game.
Who said Rueschel was a HOFer?
I understand why defense isn’t important in fantasy ball. And I think you understand WAR.
I read that article you linked to and though I read it quickly, it seemed to indicate that WAR supports him as a HoFer.
Maybe I misread it, I’m at the pool on my phone.
I understand the very basics of WAR and that’s not enough to fully appreciate it, I guess. But I get how important base running and D is and all the other park factors etc. that WAR considers.
I hadn’t read the Reuschel part. I wasn’t interested in pitcher WAR. The writer makes a good case, I thought, after reading it.
I’m not argiung about it, there really is no argument. I was just trying to provide some info about it. One can find it useful or not, but the fact is that most, if not all, front offices DO use it so it’s relevant for that reason alone.
I noticed some suspiciously low WAR numbers earlier in the season and started paying attention to the stat. I have to admit that as the season has moved forward and the WAR totals have accumulated, those numbers, at least for the players who I watch closely, look a lot more accurate. Posey’s OPS is 28th in mlb right now; his FG WAR is 24th. Pablo’s OPS, 48th; his FG WAR is 30th.
So you’re saying BJ Upton sucks shaved balls and this WAR thingy proves it? Well, I’ll be!
-1 seems generous, doesn’t it?
To answer your questions:
1. I didn’t say it
2. War proves it
What do you say?
Well, I guess I should say that he proves it, WAR puts a value on it. Something like that.
You don’t need WAR to see that BJ has smoked shaven balls this year. My point of using him as an example in the main thread was to show how the two different WAR sites view him differently with both saying he’s either an all star (at best) or a little below average (at worst) over the last 4 seasons. That’s a pretty huge discrepancy.
And then to have him show up as one of the worst players in baseball (per WAR) over the first 40 games of the season suggests that using WAR as an analytic tool is, at best, random and arbitrary (at least for fantasy baseball).
BR and FG use different formulas, that doesn’t make it “arbitrary”. One can do as a personnel director, scout, or GM would do- analyze both methods AND the many other tools to arrive at an evaluation.
I’m sorry to try to answer a question from Dirt meant for you. My bad.
But I don’t get where Upton’s WAR for the year so far is arbitrary. It reflects his poor performance thus far.
Damn pitch selection.
At least we can’t blame the defense today.
for the very few who are interested, I popped some fantasy standings up in Room B and I listed my 2 NFBC rosters for comparison……
Craw.
Cain helping himself.
The homeplate umpire is not awesome.
Goodnight all.
Do youse guys have a finger on Cain’s HR laced season? The one time I watched him pitch this season his FB was flat and fat, but shirley, he is not doing that every time out?
90 pitches through 5 innings, but he is still throwing the FB at Wilin. gotta love the horse.
He pitched very well his start before this one. I like how he’s still competing tonight. Got the 1-2-3 inning last inning. Got a hit to drive in a run.
there is no way we should need 7 runs on a Mat Cain start.
In a perfect world
🙂
goodnight, Michael, see you tomorrow.
Man, this ballpark is wiffleball goodtimes!
Chacin has 90 pitches as well. Belt got a FB right in the heart of the plate.
We got a ballgame!
Blanco ties it up. Welcome to Giants baseball Rockheads.
duane has said pence when he meant belt and belt when he meant pence about 3 times this inning
woo hoo brandons’ batting
Can I get a witness? I say, AMEN, BROTHER! Tied game.
No PH?
I might go Pill here.
cain may be giving up beauco HRs, but he is the horse and we need some innings, so run that pitch count up!!
Bochy’s a genius! (grin)
any one that sez Angel, despite his errors this season, doesn’t give 100% is blind.
We are the Sultans of Swing, so to speak.
OK, I got a phone call. How did we get those last two?
Pagan 2-run, 2-out single.
thanks Mac.
What a play by Craw!
That was a fantastic play by Crawford.. ESPN highlight type of play
And then he makes an error. It’s a humbling sport. (grin)
Strange game, that’s for sure. 😉
No harm no foul. Get some more runs Giants.
Way to hang Matt.
Clown, all due respect, amigo, but that is CLASSIC TEXTBOOK case for why the vocative comma needs to not die. Insert one vocative comma after the word “hang” — or Matty is a victim of severe corporal punishment.
Granted, the phrase “all due respect” in “The Sopranos” would follow with my getting whacked.
The Clown hangs his head in a noose. Sorry Pawlie, I gave up commas for tequila a few hours ago.
Cheers.
Well, the Clown need not go that far. Just sing that Smokey Robinson tune.
Good play by Arenado. By the by, this kid has been touted by the Rocks for the last few seasons and was actually expected to join the club last year, but he had a lousy season in the minors.
I scooped him up all over the place, I paid $312 for him in my best NFBC league (you have $1000 to spend in the season).
Good pick because he is a keeper.
and I snagged him in our league for free, a few days after he came up. The current Flap league needs to step up their attention, now that you’re back maybe you’re the owner to do it. 🙂
Gmen lucked out on that one by Rosario. Coors isn’t playing like Coors this evening due to the recent rain (yesterday) and possible moisture for tonight’s game.
Fucking froze him. Way to go Romo.
Fowler is 0 for 7 lifetime against Romo. Yawn. Might as well grab some pine meat.
Probably mentioned but this is similar to the Apr 9th game, which means G’s win handily tomorrow.
Game.
Bedtime for Bozos.
That’s a tremendous win.
Nice to be back in the States and watch a ball game again. Rocks are pathetic.
It’s nice to be in europe and watch a game.
Go gigantes!
hahaha
Ballgame!
It’s a more expansive *torture* isn’t it? Not so much the nail-biting kind as the tornado-comeback kind. A sweet W. Is the 6-run deficit the largest we’ve overcome for a win this year? G’night, girls. hastag basking
Great win, like Bozo’s house the giants raised their run total and Cain gets a WIN!
Looks like Klay Thompson forgot how to play ball.
Bogut passes from 2′. what the fuck? Sloppy. Can’t believe Barnes came back from that fall.
The Dubs are getting out-hustled.
Fuck these screen calls.
Nice win by the Giants, as Bochy was pulling all the right strings. It worked out not pinch-hitting for Cain, and letting him stay in the game and bunt the two guys over, then Pagan got the big two-out hit; and then later in the game it worked out letting Affeldt stay in and pitch to the first batter in the 9th. Affeldt had one of his typical interesting moments on the come-backer, but made the play.
Game on the line, season on the line, Bogut is not playing? WTF, is his ankle that bad?…
Yeah. I guess. Same thing for Barnes., but I heard he was having headaches after his 6 stitches in his head.
Great season for the Dubs. Certainly got way way beyond any reasonable pre-season prediction of success. I got onto the bandwagon for this team as they closed out the regular season, it’s been a long time since I had interest in the NBA, and certainly the Warriors. They’ll undoubtedly make some offseason moves, maybe get a real point guard. They just weren’t very healthy in this Spurs series, and it hurt ’em. If Bogut and Curry can heal up and play 100% next season, that would be a huge plus. I don’t even know if Lee helps this team that much, we’ll see…
Cain pitched pretty well, if you ignore those 3 HRs…
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