When to Look at Runs Per Game and When to Look Away
Even with last night’s run explosion, the Giants are averaging only 3.07 runs per game since the all star break. Take that game out and the 9 run game from earlier this month and they’re averaging 2.19 RPG. This is why I’ve recently come to distrust looking at RPG or team ERA’s unless it’s over the course of an entire season. There are just too many one-off games that can skew the stats over a short period of games.
In 2010 they scored 4.30 RPG
In 2011 they scored 3.51 RPG (dead last in NL)
In 2012 they scored 4.43 RPG
and so far in 2013 they are scoring 3.82 RPG.
On the pitching side, our team ERA in 2010 was 3.36 (leading the NL).
2011: 3.20
2012: 3.68
2013: 4.09
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So clearly, this year, it has been the pitching AND the hitting that have us where we are today. You could argue that the hitting affects the pitching more than the pitching affects the hitting, but the reality is, both have sucked this year. It would be interesting to discuss what the worst RPG a team could tolerate and still make it to the playoffs. I’m not going to look it up, don’t really know where I’d start. But our ERA in 2011 was a very nice 3.20. Could we have made the playoffs if we’d averaged 3.80 RPG? We finished 8 games behind AZ that season but, thanks to the Sun Dressed Goddess, we were in it until the last week or two.
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total side note random thought:
Here is a pic of Ryan Sanberg from 1984:
and here is a pic of him at age 53 yesterday:
Do they test managers for steroids too? 🙂 🙂 🙂
A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball 
SPs last few games on the road have been disappointing. that’s something I think SF should keep an eye on, road starts, with regard to future and contracts, esp Lincecum. Hey, anybody except Z can pitch at ATT. Did SF burn out the groper?
talking about Pagan, I don’t have a problem playing Quiche and Pegs alongside him (once he is healthy enough to be activated) either as a LF platoon or giving either of them a shot in RF once in a while.
I really haven’t seen much of quiche, esp on this road trip. He has struck out nearly half his ABs so far, and his triple yesterday was his first XBH in 40 plus ABs. So I’m curious what are first impressions, and what type hitter you project him to ultimately be?
Now this is a thread I can jack off to.
One simple way to lay relative blame is to swap out the runs scored and runs allowed with a successful team. If you take the Dodgers offense and match it with our pitching staff you get:
494 runs scored (Dodgers), 530 runs allowed (Giants)
463 runs scored (Giants), 446 runs allowed (Dodgers)
forgot the “and vice versa”
You can also just look at the cumulative stat sheet, which shows the team is 12th in ERA and 12th in runs scored. The difference, of course, is the park factor. 12th in the league in runs scored is a better performance than 12th in ERA when you play half your games at ATT. The OPS+ and ERA+ stats tell the same story.
being 12th in anything doesn’t tell you how many runs you scored or game up. I’m assuming you can still read this although I’ve prepared myself for the possibility that you shot such a big load all over your monitor that you can’t make out the words I’m currently typing.
And I guess your argument is that the hitting has been better than the pitching due to the *park adjustments* but again, that doesn’t tell you shit.
Sure, it’s a weaker a relative measure. I prefer the OPS+ and ERA+ comparison. Or see the first post above.
In looking over the individual performances, I see 2 players who have not contributed pretty much as expected this year, one to injury (Pagan) and Pablo. Had they been bigger contributors, the team might have a runs scored total closer to the Dodgers’ number so far. The team would still be under 500 with the pitching we’ve gotten.
What is it not telling you?
Belt’s hot streak has elevated him ever close4 to Posey stats—OPS Posey .859 Belt .842.
slugging: Belt .488 Posey .485
runs produced (runs + rbis – HRs) belt 94 Posey 93 belt with 45 fewer ABs
OPS+ Posey 149 Belt 143.
Belt with team lead in HRs with 15 Pence and Posey 14 each.
I got your platoon right here.
Freddy Freeman had 1774 PAs and 1590 ABs over 4 seasons in the minors before the Braves installed him as their starting 1Bman. Belt had 825 and 670 in 1+ seasons in the minors before the Giants told him to start at 1B, start learning how to hit MLB pitching, oh, and BTW, change your swing radically while doing it. Today, adding in his MLB time, Belt has a total of 1919 PAs and 1637 ABs in pro ball — so if you look back to Belt’s totals when he started this hot streak a few weeks back, they’re eerily similar to Freeman’s totals when Freeman STARTED his MLB job. So, Belt looks like he’s ready now to be a MLB hitter. I don’t think there’s much analytics there. He needed time and ABs to succeed and build confidence as a MLB hitter. Like anybody else with talent. The “grip” may have helped put him over the top, but it wasn’t Kruk’s magic “solution” that amazingly turned him into a hitter overnight…
Good post snarkk.
Miguel Tejada is such a dope. Good riddance
Doofus. I wonder how much of this guy’s early career was PEDs related. The thing is, if they tested for greenies back in the ’60s and ’70s, maybe every HOFer from that era would have been busted. Krukow said when he was pitching, the trainers had ’em to hand out like vitamins…
I just heard the details, alleged, details. If true, Tejada’s more of a doofus than I thought. He got busted for adderral. TWICE. The reason was his prescription lapsed. Huh? Not once, but twice. You’d think after the first time, he’d get his quack to re-issue the prescription. Apparently not. If that scenario is true, it’s mind bogglingly dumb…
Conspiracy Theory on the proposed replay system that still needs to get approved by the owners: it’s such a dumb system proposed by Selig it almost makes me think he knows it’s not gonna get approved. This would delay an actual system, something he didn’t want to implement anyway. Owners reject it and then it’s back to drawing board. Let’s see if it plays out that way…
From what I’ve read about it, agreed. It’s ridiculous. The manager’s limited to a certain # of protests, so if they’re used up, in the 13th inning the ump makes an idiot call that gives the game away, and there’s no ability to overturn it? That’s WORSE than now. Flappers at the upcoming Flapalooza could design a better system in between beer runs…
Flappers at the upcoming Flapalooza could design a better system in between beer runs…
Funny (and also true).
Man Mountain Flav is in good shape . . . Don’t let him tell you different. Just finished my workout at Gold’s and despite Flav having not worked out for a few weeks (vacation in Idaho area) – it was my observation that he was throwing around the weights with ease. My man is in excellent shape.
Me? Some guy asked me about the “scissors” exercise I was doing with the fit ball (i.e., whether it was good his back) . . . Sheesh, there was a time when I was asked about weight lifting. Ha. Now, I get asked about the fit ball exercises. Sigh. Regardless, I was pleased with the 3 miles I ran under 30 minutes on the treadmill. That’s one thing about going from one mile high altitude down to sea level – you feel like a champ when you do any type of cardio.
Flav, thank you for the gym pass . . . Much appreciated!
thanks dude, good to see you and I can verify from my own eyes that Steve’s RTW trip didn’t take a thing from him. He looked happy and healthy, same as when I saw him last Fall.
Ugh, the Beaver Creek Fire is headed STRAIGHT at our home in Hailey. Everyone who is still there (at our house) has been evacuated, just praying and hoping for the best at this point. This is so surreal, I left Idaho on Monday, RIGHT where the fire is right now. Crazy.
Shit, forgot to note that Flav . . . Your family and the other residents in this area are in my prayers. I hope the fire department is able to contain the fire ASAP.
So I see the Rooster tried to crow a bit at the Flap last night. In other words, the same thing he did when the Dodgers got Manny Ramirez a few years ago. How did that whole “Manny thing” work out?
By my reckoning, the Dodgers still haven’t been to the World Series since Reagan was president. Until that changes, here’s my reaction to Dodger fans:
Yawn.
Agree Zum . . . Accomplish something, then crow.
I think the Rooster has forgotten how hard it is to win a world series. That’s understandable since his team hasn’t won one since the Reagan admin.
After they get sent packing in the first round of the playoffs I sure hope he comes back and administers a genuine, respectful apology to the fans of the current and reigning WORLD CHAMPIONS……
I’m assuming no one heard me on KNBR about an hour ago. While I was getting my car smogged I called into Lurie’s show and pitched my “conspiracy theory” theory. He wasn’t really feelin’ it but my call did set off other callers discussing whether or not a tv monitor is in the dugout. Lurie said absolutely not although 2 other callers said there was a tv monitor in the dugout. Lurie was talking to Baggs and I’m sure he asked him about it but I had to go so I didn’t hear Baggs response.
I heard your call halfway through, didn’t hear the intro of the caller, so didn’t know it was you. Yeah, Lurie poo poohed your idea. I’ve tried to get details on how it’s supposed to work, and NOBODY has written about the details. Maybe they don’t have details. Lurie did make a good point later about things like the phantom tag at 2b on a double play. How will that be handled in this replay system? You could protest probably one of every two DPs for the 2bman not having touched the bag. If that’s protestable, then the 2bman will have to actually touch the bag now, which could lead to more 2bman getting their knees blown out or something as the runner crashes into them…
Hi Flappers, back from a week in the Adirondacks (just on the edge, not in the true mountains). Except for an occasional text exchange or browsing at the Yahoo home page, I pretty much adhered to my annual blackout of news, including news of scores, standings, transactions, win streaks, and losing streaks. I see Charlie Manuel was fired. Kind of miss him. Right out of central casting. And I see our Giants are out of the cellar! But 17 games behind. Um, my romantic fantasy of coming back from camp to see us vastly improved did not come true. Oh well. A few quick questions:
1. Has Barry Zito pitched? 2. Did we lose or gain anyone notable via waivers? 3. Does Pamela Anderson still have big knockers?
1. Yes. So far, 3 appearances out of the Pen. Don’t ask.
2. We picked up Alex Rodriguez, Joey Votto, Freddy Freeman, and Ryan Braun. The Cubs claimed Belt and Sabes, after claiming the kid was “not coachable” and “didn’t hit his home runs far enough”, traded him for a Cubs AA LFer named Mickey Attaboy. 😉
3. I think she changed them out for a bit smaller size and tune up a few years ago…
“Adirondacks”
. . . and I thought it was a type of baseball bat.
Zito had 4 relief appearances, the first 2 were awful, the last 2 decent/very good.
I guess I missed last nights performance. I remember he gave up an HR in each of his first two appearances, didn’t he give up one in the third, too? Or, am I just too used to his fuckups and projecting another disaster back into that one?…
2 scoreless 2 back
As I said to Dennis Z. and Sam P., I need to keep THIS in mind when we go to the SFG@NYY game in September: Honestly and truly, how many times in our lives will we be able to sit at Yankee Stadium and say to the Yankees fans, “We are the reigning World Champions. And you are not.” Really. Think about it. Adds some perspective. For me, at least.
And, don’t forget to remind them, THEY have the biggest ‘roider in MLB…
One of the best “bang bang” plays I have seen this season. Props to Pablo for going all out on an outstanding play made by Morrison. Being fair to Alvarez, I didn’t see the balk on the replay, but tough cheese for the Marlins. Ha. 🙂
Stupid play by the CF on Blanco’s hit . . . Ya knew that was going for extra bases.
Cain must be wondering what happened? Runs? What’s that?…
A couple of those runs were gifts by the pitcher (or umpire) and the CF.
If I was in Miami I’d try to make it to BP just to watch Stanton. tho after that I’m not sure how long I’d stick around.
Quiche got his 4th BB today earlier and scored in the 4 run inning; cbs blogger said it was good AB. He has 20 Ks in 50 ABs, and his OB coming into today was .286–which is actually higher than his slugging, at .283.
Last night was his first XBH, a triple, his only hit in 6 ABs on a night top of the order destroyed Marlins pitching.
Thoughts on this guy?
To date, he seems overmatched. However, similar to snarkk’s 11:18am comment regarding Belt, he probably needs more ABs to make any kind of definitive judgement. Quite frankly, even if he doesn’t make a positive impression during his time up this season, for Quiche – this experience is invaluable, where the lessons can be applied in spring training while fighting for a roster spot.
Nate-ish – the injuries? I’d take that in a nano second
Just back from the Indianapolis [you would think they could come up with something more clever] Indians at Syracuse Chiefs game. I’m getting a sense of discernment. Guy walked by with a faded, tattered SF T-shirt. I let him go by. Too creepy. A minute later, I see a young dude with SF WS hat. We talked for 15 minutes. Just moved here to be a professor. He got engaged the night we beat Philly in 2010. I’m back in circulation. Plus, I come home to see we’ve won our third in a row. Keep it rolling, boys.
Fantastic! If anyone can snuff out a displaced Giants fan with a great story it is you.
Hey, this shit is gonna get a lot harder for you on orange sombrero night.
A final note: last Saturday night, while the girls went to an old-fashioned drive-in movie, I treated myself to the exquisite pleasure of watching Game 3 of the 2012 World Series on a DVD on my laptop. That was the 2-0 Vogelsong gem, with Timmy in relief. I had never seen that game, except for the last at-bat or two, because I was at the ballet in Philly. Wow. Vogey getting out of the bases-loaded, 1-out jam in the 5th was a turning point for the whole Series, eh? Just amazing that we swept the Tigers. Two of three of the last World Series. A stunning feat. (I have a tiny regret I did not take all the SF Chronicles TedSpe sent me and just savored them on the dock of Brantingham Lake.)
“A final note?”
Where are you going this time? An Ashram retreat? Jewish comedian convention in the Catskills? Explain please . . .
hahahha “A final note” for the evening, though it usually isn’t. [We gotta talk about the SF trip. You there now? How are the girls at Aunt Mary’s? Sounds like code, eh?]
At my mom’s house in Sunnyvale. Girls are . . . umm, I think she has new exchange students there. A leering grin is appropriate.
Shit, I’m just pisssed off I had to turn in my comcast boxes with all my WS and playoff games in them. We moved again today and no more beach. Off to Lafayette. . .And we might be going to Flapapalooza after all. If these last 2 moves don’t kill me, that is.
That’s the only thing that pissed me off about disconnecting my DirecTv Chuck – losing all the World Series games and movies I recorded when I had free HBO and Showtime for 6 months. Ha.
good. you should. Hope to see you there.