Looking Closer at Runs Per Game
Runs scored per game since the all star break (reverse order):
13, 2, 1, 8, 3, 1, 4, 5, 1, 4, 6, 1, 5, 1, 3, 0, 5, 6, 14, 4, 5, 2, 2, 3, 2, 4, 1, 1, 4, 3, 1, 4, 2, 9, 3, 1, 0, 2, 3, 5, 3, 0, 1, 4, 2
I’ll take ESPN’s word for it, so that all adds up to 154 runs scored since the all star break. 45 games. 3.42 runs per game.
0 runs: 3 times
1 run: 10 times
2 runs; 6 times
3 runs: 7 times
that makes 26 games (out of only 45) that they didn’t score enough runs in a game to win since most people would expect 4 runs should be given to the pitchers per game. Unless you expect them to have a team ERA under 3.00.
And I’m late so I can’t finish this thread, will try to get to it later today. Feel free to chime in on what I started…..
A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball 
Sorry I missed yesterday explosion, there have been so few of them. Last time I looked I counted 44 bombs were hit yesterday overall, pretty rare. Weather is supposed to warm up here next few days and last through Monday, so park might play a little different.
I want to second Zum’s *good read* on Willie and Mickey. by the time I got into baseball Mays was already here so I was unaware of his NY accomplishments. Likewise I only knew Mantle as powerful HR hitter.
The book spends a little time on their backgrounds but also describes politics of mgrs. and coaches and ownership during their careers, and of course off field life. Last couple chapters at end of their active careers and life afterward are sobering and sad.
Writer also makes it a point to use different stats like what we use today to analyze their big seasons and references Bill James and others to see where they stood in regards to others of their eras. And makes pretty comprehensive argument Mays got screwed out of at least a couple MVPs.
Most enjoyable. Saturday should be A Great Day at ATT. Hoping to see multiple additions to photo bucket!
13, 2, 1, 8, 3, 1, 4, 5, 1, 4, 6, 1, 5, 1, 3, 0, 5, 6, 14, 4, 5, 2, 2, 3, 2, 4, 1, 1, 4, 3, 1, 4, 2, 9, 3, 1, 0, 2, 3, 5, 3, 0, 1, 4, 2
Arthur Murray Cha Cha dance steps?
Lost in all the Sandoval HR hoopla yesterday, was our tie for 4th place with San Diego. Quest for 4th is in high gear! With the Sherpas going on the road Friday – I am WILLING the Giants to blow past them by next week!
#3 with a bullet.
well, the offense is 13th since the break and the pitching is 13th, in the nl. we’ve been poor in all facets of the game.
Giants are tied for 13th (last) with the Brewers and Nats in NL fielding, too (season).
It’s a trifecta of 13th! Yep, we suck across all facets of the game — that’s hard to do…
Flap Itinerary for Flapalooza 3.0 has been emailed out. Please do not re-post the email here. If I missed you or if you think I missed someone just email me at bigflavor77@gmail.com and I’ll get it out to whoever should get it.
sorry guys, i tried-but they won’t activate phil nastu to start the flapalooza game..
Damm i really wanted Nastu to pitch since the other option was Todd Wellemeyer.
Or Brad (bad) Penny.
I thought I heard that they were trying to line-up Atlee “Got Hammered” Hammaker, or Mike Lacoss-tus the Game..
Krukow the other day was talking about how the Giants have scored so few runs for Bumgarner lately. Krukow said it’s “unbelievable” how few runs. Seriously, Krukow? There might be some things that are unbelievable about the Giants, but “scoring few runs for their starting pitchers” ain’t one of them.
SERIOUSLY, Krukow. Where do you think all we Giants fans have been over the last several years? The term “getting Cained” got invented several years ago, and is even mentioned in Baggarly’s book.
The most runs the Giant pitchers see come from watching their wives/gf pantyhose’s run.
the poor sob is probably still steamed about ’85- he had a tidy 3.38 era yet had a losing record. that whole starting staff was snakebit. of the 6 guys who started regularly, 5 had losing records with era’s under 4. lapoint was 7-`17 with a 3.57 era.
poor kruk had 2.82 run support- even less than cain in his bad luck years. lapoint got 2.97. how did they lose only 100 😉
Every Giant postion starter,Sucked Balls that year,Hacman,Chili,the.ever forgetable.David.Green etc etc they all mailed in the season for Jimmy.Davenport,who of course stunk in his only shot 56-88 till the humm baby finished the season at a respectable 6-12.
6-12 projects to a rather unrespectable 54-108 😉 i don’t think roger had his humm workin’ yet.
Giants offense……”BOO!”
HOO!
All right, the Lion is fucking around with the Christian instead of honoring his meek sacrifice. So, the Christian is going to have to kick the Lions ass yet again.
My expectation for the team ERA over the entire season was around 3.4. Is that unreasonable for a team with a vaunted pitching staff, one that plays half the time at ATT? I thought not. What would the Giants record look like with the same shitty offense and a 3.4 team ERA? Well, let’s look at the Reds again:
To date: 514 runs allowed
Giants: 532 runs scored
Let’s add 10 unearned runs for the crappy D, and you have a team at or a little over 500 for the year.
Now what was a reasonable expectation for the offense? 4 runs a game? That’s the league average this year, and, given that the Giants play at ATT, it would at least make them a better than average offense — agreed?
4X139 = 556 runs scored
The Giants have allowed 609 runs. That is a team well below 500.
You can slice and dice your numbers through micro analysis any way you want, but there is simply no argument here against the proposition that the pitching deserves the, ah, lion’s share of the blame . . . . unless of course you had vastly different expectations about the pitching and the offense coming into the year than I did. Read that previous line again — it is the foundation of the point I’ve been trying to make.
I am considering creating a little drinking game for the Flapalooza. Here’s what it would consist of:
Let’s assume the Giants scored those 70 additional runs this year through 139 games — that would mean they had a pretty good year at the plate so far, right? Well over 4 runs scored per game, nearly as many as the Reds have scored. Perhaps even a little beyond our expectations for the offense.
I’d then ask everyone to distribute those extra runs in increments of a couple of 5s, a few 4s and few more 3s, a lot of twos, and a majority of ones. Then you could distribute them in a random pattern across the whole season. increasing the runs scored by 5, 4.3 etc for individual games. Or weight the second half more, it really doesn’t matter, as long as the distribution is random, i.e., you can’t intentionally add 2 runs to a 1 run loss, 5 runs to a 4 run loss etc. Every other tie becomes a win.
You could do the exercise 5 times, 10 times, whatever. You could also decide to simply have increments of 2 runs or 3 runs etc, it makes no difference. Note that if you use 2 run increments you’d only be able to change the runs scored total of 35 randomly selected games.
Then I’d ask everyone to count up the additional wins those 70 runs actually might have created.
I wouldn’t play myself because I already know what the range of results would be. When you score as many runs as you allow, you will be around 500.
how many runs do i have to give the paperboy to make him keep my sunday paper out of the pond?
I fully deserve the mockery, TF. It’s just that, well, I don’t lose baseball arguments . . . ever.
i wasn’t mocking you, i really want something for that paperboy. something i won’t go to jail for. you’ve *never* lost a baseball argument? i guess that might be possible since you and i never argue 😉
Ha! 🙂
For the hell of it, here are the pitching stats for the last month:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats_team.cgi?full=1¶ms=total%7CLast%2028%20days%7CSFG%7C2013%7Cpitch%7CIP%7C
Those poor guys!
I still think the offense going south the last couple months has more to do with the current suckage rather than abstract number averages across the season. And don’t forget the mental lapses by the defense that didn’t count as errors. And the shitty defense in general.
Mainly because when the hitting was hot and the pitching was shakey, the Giants managed to stay at or near 1st place. When the hitting went south and the pitching remained shakey (and actually improved a little), they cratered.
Again, it’s a question of relative expectations. If the offense had remained as hot as it was in May, we’d have about 600 runs scored and . . . be at 500. We’d also easily have the best offense in the league, and the worst pitching. Was that what you expected the team to do coming into the season? Do you think that’s the way Sabes “architected” the team?
The pitching has not improved in the second half.
James, you yourself posted the the team, ERA went down over the last couple months. The hitting numbers for that same time span dropped through the floor.
July: 4.43
August: 4.03
These are shitty numbers, Chuck. If the Giants had scored a little over 4 runs a game, the team’s record would be 500 for those 2 months.
No Buster again…
Pagan CF
Scutaro 2B
Belt 1B
Pence RF
Sandoval 3B
Sanchez C
Blanco LF
Crawford SS
Vogelsong RHP
Look at Posey’s splits
12 HRs, 47 RBIs through June
2 HRs, 19 RBIs July and Aug
Pence:
13 HRs, 43 RBIs through June
3 HRs, 25 RBI July and Aug (Pence did better than I thought in Aug)
Panda:
8 HRs, 37 RBIs through June 10 (injured)
2 HRs, 27 RBIs
The 3-4-5 guys did not pull their weight during this drop in the standings. The biggest culprit is Posey. He fell off the table and was buried in a ditch. Being the guy you count on for RBIs, he has failed miserably. The teamwide power drop also plays a big part of this. The Giants were getting guys on base, but they struggled mightily driving them in.
4th in team BA, 7th in OBP, 2nd in most runners LOB.
uh, panda 5 hr 34 rbi since june.
James, why was the team in 1st when they were hitting, and in last when they weren’t?
Chuck, see response above.
In other words, the pitching has been pretty consistently inconsistent. When the hitting went south they went from 1st to last. Ergo, when they stopped hitting, they stopped winning.
We don’t score
We lose . . .
We don’t pitch, we lose. Last year’s team with this year’s pitching is maybe a little better than a 500 team.
Last year’s team with this year’s hitting, and we aren’t the 2012 WS champs,that’s for sure. Is Posey heading for his 2nd MVP? Are our meager power numbers even going to equal to last year’s? No.
No one on the roster is blowing by last year’s output. Except for Belt. They are nearly 200 runs short of last year. Sure there are 23 games left, but how many do we score? 88 based on the season average, but recent history suggests otherwise. So, I’d think they end up about 135 runs short of last year’s totals.
___________________________________
Anyhow. It’s both, plus the shitty defense.
Nevermind
You can’t parse the numbers that way. Average it out and it doesn’t mean shit. They’ve lost a ton of games where one hit would have won that given game. When you leave 12 men on base in a game that you lose 3-2 (and I recall about 15 of these in the last couple months), one hit turns it. Plenty of winning teams have had below average runs scored/runs given up splits. Randomly assigning more numbers to their current total is nothing but parsing. Nothing is gained from it.
It would be like assigning more value to winning one game 10-0, and losing the next two 1-0.
Your ERA is awesome, your run differential is great, but your record is 1-2.
What do you mean by below average and plenty? Would 570 runs be an acceptable total for the Giants this year through 139 games? I would be happy with that output, and I think most would think it was an acceptable performance in a year when nobody is scoring much. How often do teams with a negative run differential of 39 through early September have a winning record?
To be very clear, again: I understand that the offense has underperformed. Just not as much as the pitching.
I’ve got it 44.95% pitchers fault, 42.80 offense and the other 12.15% defense.
Er, hold on. Check that. 13.15% defense. I think. (damn Liberal Arts education).
we give up .38 more runs per game than last year and score .61 runs less. i *think* that those those numbers are right. i’m not sure that it’s terribly important which facet of the game has sucked more. but it does appear that compared to last year, the pitching has sucked somewhat less than the offense. is there a prize involved in this?
Ah, James, I thought you weren’t going to go there anymore… 🙂 Yeah, it’s tough to resist, isn’t it?
I tried Paul, I really did, but BF knew I was weak, like Pinkman’s 2 buddies on the 12 step.
I still want to know who thinks we scored enough runs in the second half to win games when we scored 3 or less in 26 of the 45 games played. Anyone? Bueller?
It’s enough runs to still be a little over 500 right now, if the pitching was performing to expectations for the season. The offense would then carry the blame for the team’s being nearly out of contention.
Not if you look how the runs were scored in each game post all star break. I haven’t looked at pre all star break yet
it would not be reasonable to expect many wins when scoring 3 or less. they did scratch out 5 wins of those 26. so 5-21 seems about what to expect with that poor offensive production.
here’s the killer stat for me- last year they scored 3 or more 81 times for their starting pitchers. the starting pitcher’s record in those games was 64-17. this year they’ve scored 3 or more just 53 times for their starting pitcher and the startier’s record in those games is 36-17. with 2 or less (baseball reference doesn’t show 3 or less), they were 7-32 last year and 6-33 this year when scoring 2 or less for the starter. so we’re scoring less this year *and* the satrters are not as successful when they do get support.
That’s a very interesting way to look at this and I haven’t thought of looking at these stats. Nice find
I know blade and everyone else wants SF to get ahead of Sherpas and into 3rd. But, the way we have handled the Dbax, Giants have a legit shot at 2nd if they can make up a couple games a week…like starting now.
I think it would be really cool and make everyone that is responsible feel a lot better about off season, including mgmt.
That is a fantastic dream. Would love to see it happen. I’m still gonna just focus on The Quest
TF’s 5:04 is by far the best and only credible argument against my pitchers suck more jeremiad. The response will be even more tedious than the other stuff I’ve posted. I need to cook dinner, though . . . Maybe I’ll forget about responding 😉
Actually my 7:o1 beats both of you but have a fab dinner
and my 7:37 is the best i have ever seen since my ‘omg, al, we did it’ when gore and i invented the internet. now i will tackle rocket science. if captain video could fly in a cardboard box, it can’t be that tough.
How’s about our hitting sucks balls, and my two Makers on ice beat ALL the arguments about pitching vs. hitting…
Thanks. I was looking for a POTD, that’ll do….
Shoot, two Makers and I get POTD?
If I have a third, do I get Daisy?…
Damn, good throw.
And now one from Sanchez for our side. Good throw, don’t know what Hill was thinking on that one.
Panda, three bagging it.
Good thing for us there’s no replay protest, yet…
The umps are not awesome.
doesn’t the second tag negate the first one… no? be that way.
Crazy inning.
That thar K shit by the old fellow is some funny shit. lmao here
Voggy isn’t doing his contract option pickup much good here. Wheels have come off. Too many pitches early on…
Not sure if all you Malcolm in the Middle and/or Breaking Bad fans saw this pic, but I thought it was kinda cute…
Nice. Walt probably has a contract with the Aryan brotherhood out on the intrusive ex…
i think that cranston has rather successfully escaped the sitcom daddy roles, eh?
Hector can hit, but sheesh, he’s got to tighten up that defense and ball blocking skills in the offseason…
I hate nibblers. vogs cannot f-ing walk bloomquist with Golds coming up. He gets to 3-2 and then throws ball four not close, and then never gets anyone else out (including the guy he got ahead of 0-2 before grooving one) with a wild pitch mixed into it.
His ERA is now 5.62… he’s toast.
Dunning just looks like he should be a submariner.
or down a few submarines..
They are the weight loss weapon of choice, remember?
That is one of Kruk’s stupidest comments ever. And he has made plenty.
kuip has a bad year, too. he gets more names wrong in a week than he used to make all year. getting the who’s who right is like priority one for a play-by-play guy.
Yep, Kuip’s been a step slow a lot this year. Miller is slowing down too, making mistakes on names and play calls…
Geez, Voggy blows up, Hector can’t block pitches, Belt inexplicably tests Parra’s laser arm and loses — this is going just swimmingly …
Let’s play a game called “Know your home yard.”
Sandoval- don’t go into a homerun trot when you hit a ball 420 to right-centerfield.
Belt- don’t think you’re automatically getting a double when you hit a line-drive off that brick wall in rightfield.
Shit. Panda got the triple. It’s not like he was going for an inside the parker. I missed Belt’s fuckup. The Ravens are getting pounded by the Broncos. 7 months too late unfortunately. That’s what I get for flipping back and forth. Hey! Kontos recovers.
didn’t see your post, chuck. belt was thinking double out of the box but parra got an easy carom and threw him out..
He almost got thrown out at third.
well, he was already on the bag when the throw got there. there’s video on mlb.com gameday.
When you hit the ball to right, the caroms are highly unpredictable. Unless you’ve got Bengie speed, you go. Really, how many singles off the wall have we seen over the years?
The play was right in front of him. He could see that carom all the way.
Parra already threw out Crawford at home. He’s got a gun out there. Belt had the play in front of him, and less than two out, and you’re two runs down. I call that a BBBB, a Belt baserunning boo boo…
parra made several great throws. i don’t think you presume he’ll be perfect on every one, he was. tip your cap. or make a toast.
20? 30?
pablo’s lost weight but i still don’t think he was getting more than a triple on that 😉
Unfrickingbelievable, except this year – where all this BS play is normal.
Wow, this game is the season in a nutshell. Bad catching, bad pitching, dumb baserunning, all within the space of about 4 innings. Last year, we wouldn’t have this much bullshit baseball in two weeks, let along one game…
I believe we just witnessed a bona fide base running mistake.
If Baer attends the Flapalooza, I’m agitating for one day contracts for all attending Flappers. We’ll just be additional callups. WE can run the bases better than this; hell, look how we rush the bar. And, with half a snootful, too…
And the obligatory DP. . . . . yawn. Just when I think it’s safe to watch this team, they stink up the joint.
Interesting story about Sadaharu Oh’s single-season HR record in Japan about to be broken…
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/06/sports/baseball/deference-to-a-revered-record-by-sadaharu-oh-in-japan-is-going-going.html?hp&_r=0
I know it wont happen, but I am hoping Sabes signs an infielder that can put some pressure on Scutaro to perform way better than what we’ve seen this year. Also wishful thinking, but my dream is that Panik performs lights out in spring training and makes the roster. I’m not certain I can take another season of Scutaro flubbing grounders at 2nd base and running the bases like Herb Washington.
bad hands and no range isn’t a good combo.
That third year for Scuts is lookin’ real dicey. We still don’t know after 5 months what’s wrong with his back, other than it needs lots of “rest”…
“Mijares, having a pretty solid season.” Thought you might have missed hearing that.
Mijares has turned back into a Royal.
According to Miller, 89 total baserunners allowed in 48 innings. Yikes…
But he’s a bulldog. He wants the ball.
Nice by Rosario to walk Bloomquist to get to . . . Goldschidt
And that’s a home run at Central Park in San Mateo. I never tire of hearing that 467 times a game.
the guy should be strictly a loogy yet he’s faced more right handers- who are hitting over .360 against him. even the lhers are .266. before this year the lefties had been under .220 against him.
After watching the Ravens — and I thought the Giants’ title defense was bad.
Thanks Mac for reminding me . . . Another reason to hate Denver sports teams and slit my wrists.
The solace to Denver winning tonight is the fact they’ll fold up like a cheap tent in the playoffs, All the more better. Fuck Balt as well . . . Got to love the idiot Bronco linebacker (Trevathan) who dropped his pick 6 before crossing the goal line and getting the best LB (Woodyard) on the Broncos injured in the scramble for the fumble.
Really? I was in the city this evening, so I didn’t see the game. Thank God for some solace (and you providing it Chuck). 😉
Sounds like it’s been Pick on the Announcers Night (and not without reason). But hey, it still beats listening to Cris Collinsworth.
Everything’s shitty when yer losing.
Blech.
G’night Flappers…
Johnny Monell’s debut. Ahhhhhhhhhh.
Hembree looked good. The D? No.
Great. Monell must have just completed “Swing At The First Pitch 101” course before being called up. WTF is instructing these guys??????????????????????
Someone tell Greg Papa to shut the fuck up.
Right ring finger (little fracture?????) injury for Posey. Pffffftt! I guess we wont be seeing him until Spring training. Thank you very much.
The Giants butchered tonight’s game like this guy butchers “The Ballad Of Danny Bailey”:
The blown call by the ump saved Flannery from looking idiotic for sending Sandoval home on that short fly. It hasn’t been a stellar year for the Giants coaching staff.
BLEEP!