A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball

The World Series 2013

Posted in Uncategorized by twinfan1 on October 20, 2013

team stats regular season ( just some basic ones)
the cards, nl- 1st in offense, 5th in pitching, tied 1st in defense
red sox, al- 1st in offense, 6th in pitching, 5th in defense

boston
starting pitching- boston 3.84 era .247 baa 109 hr
relief pitching -boston 3.70 era .250 baa 47 hr
hitting boston-.277 ba .349 obp .795 ops 178 hr

st. louis
starting pitching 3.42 era .250 baa 76 hr
relief pitching 3.45 era .247 baa 36 hr
hitting .269 ba .322 obp .733 ops 125 hr
st. louis home and road- 54-27 and 43-38, boston home and road 53-28 and 44-37

for more detailed team stats, hardball talk has more:
http://tinyurl.com/klg29o8

who has the big edges?
offense: boston- drew over kozma, ellsbury over jay, dh- if craig can go, ortiz has a slight edge, overwise it’s a huge boston edge
cards- holliday over gomez/nava, molina over ‘saltimbocca’, beltran over victorino- but not as big as their reps might indicate, beltran has the power edge and a great arm. victorino is a better overall defender and the baserunning edge. both were .290s batting averages.
starting pitching- Starting pitching: adam wainwright, michael wacha, joe kelly, lance lynn vs. jon lester, john lackey, clay buchholz, jake peavy
edge- even. most pick st. louis here and that will be the case if wacha pitches as he has. but he’s not *that* good. and kelly is very hittable. i like bucholtz to have a big series. wainwright/lester i see as a push. the key guys who can swing this either way are wacha and lackey, imo.
pen- closers- uehara over rosenthal- they can’t hit uehara and he doesn’t walk ’em 0.565 whip. that’s half a batter per inning, where’s eddie?
rosenthal is top notch but has limited closer experience. 1.102 whip- 1 batter on per inning. whip means a lot with these two.
pen total. both pens have been nearly unhittable in the postseason. st. louis .177 baa 0.84 whip boston .209 baa 1.06 whip

my take- st. louis in 7. and that home field will be big in this series. these are very evenly matched teams across the board. boston has a large edge in power, and the best closer. st louis has the better defense and better middle relief. and key edges with holliday, beltran, molina.
series mvp- yadier molina
series surprise- xander bogearts

prize

53 Responses

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  1. twinfan1 said, on October 20, 2013 at 7:47 pm

    contest standings-

    9-salty, denny,rooster
    8-chi, birddog
    7-macdog, chuck
    5-kevin, kat, boxhead, sportsdude,flavor,blade
    4-wilcojoe, wes
    3 manny,sandiggitydawg, winder, snarkk
    2-pawlie

  2. unca_chuck said, on October 20, 2013 at 9:39 pm

    I’ll let these results speak for themselves.

    http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=RP&CTY=USA&DATE=20131018&RN=4

    20:1 no less.

  3. Flavor said, on October 21, 2013 at 6:07 am

    I think that the park dimensions (and park knowledge) will play a big role in the outcome of this series. St Louis has a much more conventional stadium. Besides having the 37 foot wall out in left field, Fenway has an unreal short porch in right that’s only 302 feet away—-but that quickly juts out to 380.
    I think Boston wins and I think they will take advantage of their park knowledge in ways that St Louis can’t really do in their park.
    Another possible angle: how will Farrell manage in St Louis? This is an AL-only guy, he might “RonWashington” that bullpen if he’s not careful…..

  4. Alleykat said, on October 21, 2013 at 7:32 am

    Jim Leyland resigns in Detroit.
    Would not be suprised if he takes over in LA,even if Donny 2 step is “Supposedly Safe”
    Would also not be shocked if Kirk Gibson goes back home and takes over the Tigers,just my 2 cents worth…

  5. willedav said, on October 21, 2013 at 8:52 am

    since I could give a flying F who wins this Series and refuse to watch any of it, mostly I’ve been checking MLBTR, where it seems every team is interested in Ellsbury. My ? would be the same one I had about Choo—he’s on a winner and plays in a friendly hitters yard in a division with a few other of those, so why would he leave? The extra $$$ he can make, esp if Sox win it, would seem prohibitive to him joining most other clubs, and I would think Sox would do what they could to hang onto him.
    Couple guys that post regularly on cbs site during Giants games seem to think TL will take SF qualifying offer of $14 mil for a year despite turning down SF proposal, with the idea a good season can be springboard to better deal. Hopefully he has figured some things out and can improve on last year numbers if he does return.
    Any interest in Hiroki Kuroda as 1-2 yr stop gap 3-4 type guy?
    Lot of bloggers wary their GM would over pay for McCann on a 3 yr deal…hope Sabes isn’t one of them.
    I always liked Leyland, esp after the vid came out of him blowing up young Barry Lamar in ST, which you can still see on youtube.

  6. twinfan1 said, on October 21, 2013 at 9:31 am

    i can see lincecum going for the qualifying offer and attempting to rebuild his ‘brand’ for the deal he’ll never get this winter. i commented to that effect months ago. his last two seasons have probably cost him about 60 million bucks minimum. he was probably in line for something like 5 or 6 years at 25 per; now it will be 4 at 15, something like that,imo. he made strides this year, so it’s not a bad strategy. i’m still not sure if i’d do it though, were i sabean.

    • twinfan1 said, on October 21, 2013 at 9:35 am

      i’ll check back later today.

  7. unca_chuck said, on October 21, 2013 at 10:00 am

    Timmy got his shit together a little by the end, going 5-3 after going 5-11 the first 4 months.

    But that sure ain’t enough for other GMs to throw a truckload of money at, IMHO.

    His wanting those one-two year deals while he waited for his eligibility ends up biting him in the ass. IOW, he cratered before he could cash in on his mega-super-Matt Cain type deal.

    Not saying his strategy was wrong, but he could have been near the tail end of a 5/$100 mill deal had he signed it in 2010 or 2011.

    • twinfan1 said, on October 21, 2013 at 10:36 am

      all of that is why it makes sense for him to accept the qualifying offer- unless he thinks this is good as it gets for him. in which case take the best offer now.
      imo.

    • unca_chuck said, on October 21, 2013 at 11:15 am

      That’s what I’m saying as well. My other point was he could have signed a big deal in 2010 but HE was reluctant. I don’t remember what the Giants were offering back then, but all I remember was him saying 8 years. The worm has turned . . .

      • chipower9 said, on October 21, 2013 at 1:01 pm

        Giants were offering something like 100/5. Tim, playing the two year, and year to year game has made about 65 mil so far.

  8. Irish Kevin said, on October 21, 2013 at 10:51 am

    What is the tie breaker, not that I expect to win. But I will see where I fall.

    • Chipower9 said, on October 21, 2013 at 12:59 pm

      Kev – tie-breaker is your guess at total runs scored by both teams for the entire series.

      • Irish Kevin said, on October 22, 2013 at 9:31 pm

        Yes indeed

  9. salty said, on October 21, 2013 at 11:09 am

    I agree Tim should take a 1 yr and stay in pitcher friendly SF. His 2nd half ERA was still 4.52 and his road Whip 1.4. Maybe he wants to go home to Seattle. But are the Mariner’s giving him more than 2/28?

  10. blade3colorado said, on October 21, 2013 at 12:14 pm

    Willie, I like Kuroda as I am quite familiar with him via Fantasy League. OK, here’s the deal – he is 38 years old, yet he has consistently defied expectations. For example, most experts thought he would do a face plant when he moved to the Yankees 2 years ago. Why? Simply because they felt that: a) He wouldn’t do well in the American League despite having an outstanding year in Los Angeles the year before; b) The Yankee Stadium right field porch wasn’t conducive to his pitching style and he would get destroyed by the stadium park factors; c) His aforementioned age; and, d) Playing in the Yankee “Thunderdome” would make him wet his pants. None of the aforementioned happened in his first season . . .

    However, in his 2nd season (2013) – the 2nd half specifically – Kuroda experienced a late-season slide, where he lost six straight decisions to fall to 11-13 on the year. Nevertheless, this is what Kuroda has accomplished:

    1. WHIP has gone down 3 consecutive seasons (1.162 last season).
    2. ERA consistently in low 3’s last 3 seasons, with this season’s 3.31 a bit lower than his first year with the Yankees. Also, he was leading the AL at the All Star break with a 2.65 ERA.
    3. Pitched 200 innings plus the last 3 seasons (4 if you count the 196 he pitched in 2010).

    Like I said, his age is the Wild Card, yet he would have been our number 2 pitcher last season.

    • James said, on October 21, 2013 at 12:32 pm

      If we could add 3 question marks with track records akin Kuroda’s into the mix next year, the chances that at least 2 will work out don’t seem bad.

      • zumiee said, on October 21, 2013 at 12:43 pm

        That’s sort of what the Dodgers did this year. Had about 6 or 7 starters on their roster, and then things sort themselves out, regarding performance and injuries. It’s the sort of thing where a Vogie could end up a “swingman,” whether he’s happy about that or not.

  11. chipower9 said, on October 21, 2013 at 1:10 pm

    Kuroda – I would prefer a one year deal with an option, but not sure that will get it done (he may get two year offers elsewhere). He has averaged around 12 mil per since hitting MLB.

  12. chipower9 said, on October 21, 2013 at 1:20 pm

    Most years I don’t have interest to watch the series if the Giants are not in it. This year, I think the two best teams made it, and as Twin’s stats show, they are pretty evenly matched. This all adds up to potential for some really good baseball, so I will be watching.

    While I grew up a Cards fan as a kid in Oklahoma, and am typically a league loyalist, I’m pulling for the Beantown 9 this time around. The team reminds me a bit of our beloved 2010 Giants with their beards, etc. I also like the way the Sox were put together. They jetisoned the big salaries and went out and filled their roster not with high-priced FA or stars (aka the Bumbinos), but with quality major leaguers. (Not saying the Cards have not done a fine job of building a team, either…just something about this Boston team that I like.)

    • Alleykat said, on October 21, 2013 at 1:55 pm

      Oh come on Chi, You will be watching cause your in the PC race,as Mc Fly would say toBiff,now dont con me that’s 2 coats of wax on my car right?
      Me with no chance, is still in the hunt for Twin’s hair in a can prize though.

  13. chipower9 said, on October 21, 2013 at 2:30 pm

    Kat – with three ahead of me, and only the one series left…I am now a long-shot. But honestly…PC contest or not, I would be watching. I just really think this is going to be a good series…and while I would prefer our Giants to be there…I do like to watch good quality baseball, and again, I think this series will fit that bill.

    • twinfan1 said, on October 21, 2013 at 2:59 pm

      you still have a legit shot- it’s up to you and all flappers with a chance to deny that win to the capon. i’m already working on a giants’ desktop and screensaver that can’t be erased without a complete format of the hard drive. if he wins he’s gonna see barry’s pirouette every time he boots up.

      grin

  14. Irish Kevin said, on October 21, 2013 at 2:47 pm

    thanks Chi, total runs for all games, wow, after what the Cards did not sure what the totals should be. But I will email twin with that info

  15. Flavor said, on October 21, 2013 at 2:48 pm

    Unless you throw a shit load of dough at Kuroda (year deal) he’s going back to pitch in Japan. He’s already said that’s where he wants to end his career.

    • blade3colorado said, on October 21, 2013 at 3:16 pm

      Yeah, and the $12 million average Chi quoted doesn’t reflect what he made last year playing for the Yanks, i.e., $15 million (so that’s your starting point).

      • chipower9 said, on October 21, 2013 at 3:42 pm

        I looked at everything he made since being signed by the Bums and averaged it out (including the 15 mil he made with the YankMees last year). If that is the starting point…I’d tell him not to let the door hit him in the ass on the way out…no way I want to see the Giants throw that kind of coin at him.

  16. twinfan1 said, on October 21, 2013 at 3:27 pm

    i’d pass on kuroda. if timmy does take the qualifying offer we need a legit 1 or two who would be our 2 or 3. timmy gets the 3 out of respect, just to start the season,then as always, it’s on merit. the 5 can be fought out by internal options. bottom line- if tim signs here we need a a guy who be counted on as one of our 1,2,3 starters.
    imo. keep in mind that that would push next year’s payroll to about 2013’s number, about 140 milion ( counting any arb cases, minor raises, etc). they’ll have to raise the budget to 160 or so do to much with offense.

  17. snarkk said, on October 21, 2013 at 3:48 pm

    Good that Leyland saw it was time to quit. He’s a good manager, but I don’t see an overwhelming reason to put him in the HOF, unless they’re giving HOF invitations away because of length of service and crusty attitude — which might be the case. For Detroit since 2006, he’s 700-597 with 4 div titles and 2 AL pennants, OK, that is good. But, he had the pitching and horses to get that done, it’s not like it’s hard to write Cabrera and Verlander onto the lineup card. Overall for 22 seasons he’s 1,769 -1,728, the epitome of .500 managing, with one ring for the 1997 Marlins, his only WS win. If he gets into the HOF, I don’t see why Bochy wouldn’t be just as, or more qualified. If Bochy had won two WS titles in 3 years for an ECoast team, he’d have his HOF ticket punched publicly by all the ECoast writers already…

    • Flavor said, on October 21, 2013 at 4:02 pm

      I think he’s one of the best managers in the game every year. But “one of the best” doesn’t get you into the HOF, even as a manager

    • snarkk said, on October 21, 2013 at 4:15 pm

      Baseball managers have far less to do with team success than NFL head coaches. Managers are glorified baby sitters and ass kissers to a great extent in these days of huge, guaranteed contracts. AL managers don’t even have to deal with double switches, for Kreissakes. Bochy, because he’s considered a master of Pen management, probably qualifies more than most as giving “value added” to the team equation. Put Leyland on the Mariners, do the Mariners suddenly win the division? Donnyboy was about to get fired, then Puig shows up and guys got healthy, all of a sudden he’s a genius going 42-8. In the NFL, Harbs came in and with pretty much a new coaching staff, got the Niners into the playoffs his first year with essentially the same team Sing so horrendously mismanaged. And rip him if needed, but Carroll up in Seattle looks like he’s bringing a continuing level of success so far that Holmgren could not sustain…

      • blade3colorado said, on October 21, 2013 at 5:05 pm

        “Put Leyland on the Mariners, do the Mariners suddenly win the division?”

        Actually, this isn’t even a hypothetical question as the answer is an unequivocal no. If you recall, Leyland didn’t win jack shit when Huizenga dismantled the WS Marlins (who went 54-108 after the yard sale). Then Leyland was subsequently hired by the Colorado Sherpas for the 1999 season . . . and walking away from the final two years of his contract. Why? Well, per the papers here, he was so frustrated with the “mountain luge team” that he spent his off hours in a piano bar getting drunk every night after each home game. No idea what went on at away games. Ha.

  18. unca_chuck said, on October 21, 2013 at 4:05 pm

    I’ll be hard pressed to even reach 2nd, but I’ll put my picks in the (toilet) ring . . .

    I think even getting SD to the WS was a major accomplishment for Boch . . .

  19. unca_chuck said, on October 21, 2013 at 4:07 pm

    Leyland will likely make it. For time of service and his ring.

    • Nipper said, on October 21, 2013 at 4:12 pm

      He lasted a long time. He once chewed out Barry Bonds. He liked to smoke a lot. Somebody said he was an ok guy. What the heck……he’s HOF material.

      • snarkk said, on October 21, 2013 at 4:32 pm

        He chewed out Bonds in 1991 when Barry was 26, not making $20M a year, and not largely responsible for building the employer’s ballpark…

  20. Nipper said, on October 21, 2013 at 4:14 pm

    In the words of Willie D about the Series…….”I don’t give a Damn!”

    • unca_chuck said, on October 21, 2013 at 4:17 pm

      That was Rhett Butler, but who’s counting?

      • Alleykat said, on October 21, 2013 at 4:30 pm

        Rhett Butler indeed..
        But let’s get the line right.
        “Frankly,dear I don’t give a Damm.”

      • snarkk said, on October 21, 2013 at 4:35 pm

        Scarlett’s line at the end is for Tim and Lopez and Brian Wilson: “Where will I go, what shall I do”?…

      • Alleykat said, on October 21, 2013 at 4:46 pm

        Well Brian Wilson can just be a recluse and sing “In my room” after a breakdown with the Beach Boys for all I care.

  21. snarkk said, on October 21, 2013 at 4:41 pm

    Doghairs today signed Cuban infielder Alex Guerrero to a 4-year, $28M deal.
    As Chief Brody said in Jaws to Quint (Sabes): “You’re gonna need a bigger budget”…

    • Alleykat said, on October 21, 2013 at 4:54 pm

      Sabes and the Giants budget is more like the tiny dingy in Splash.

  22. zumiee said, on October 21, 2013 at 5:51 pm

    “But let’s get the line right.
    “Frankly,dear I don’t give a Damm.””

    Well, if we’re trying to get it EXACTLY right, isn’t it “Frankly, “my” dear, I don’t give a damn”? (grin)

  23. zumiee said, on October 21, 2013 at 5:58 pm

    Leyland….I never really got past the smoking in the dugout. It still seems really weird that MLB let him get away with that. But it says a lot about MLB’s clueless approach to PR in those days.

  24. zumiee said, on October 21, 2013 at 6:16 pm

    Nice article at Slate about the timeless appeal of baseball:
    http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2013/10/kids_and_baseball_you_may_think_it_s_slow_and_boring_but_my_8_year_old_son.html

  25. zumiee said, on October 21, 2013 at 6:25 pm

    For what it’s worth:

    “LOS ANGELES (AP) — Don Mattingly said Monday that his 2014 contract option vested with the Dodgers’ first-round playoff victory over Atlanta, but he isn’t sure he’ll be back as manager next season.
    He said that the organization put him in a difficult position with his players by not exercising a team option going into the final year of his three-year deal.
    “It’s been a frustrating, tough year, honestly,” he told reporters while sitting next to general manager Ned Colletti.
    “It puts me in a spot that everything I do is questioned because I’m basically trying out and auditioning, can you manage or can’t you manage? That’s not a great position for me as a manager.”
    Mattingly’s option worth $1.4 million would allow him to return, but the team has yet to say anything about his future.
    Colletti said Mattingly’s status would be “resolved very quickly.” But it was apparent while Mattingly talked that he would like a multiyear deal.
    “It’s pretty easy to figure out,” he said.
    “I like being here, but I don’t want to be anywhere where you’re not wanted. I don’t want to be somewhere where people don’t think you’re capable of doing the job,” Mattingly said.
    Colletti made it clear that he supports Mattingly’s return. But team President Stan Kasten and the ownership group headed by Mark Walter figure to have the final say.
    “I think he did great,” Colletti said. “I have a lot of respect for this guy. He kept it steady for a tough period of time.”
    Mattingly is 260-225 in three years as manager, guiding the Dodgers to the NL championship series, where they lost to St. Louis in six games last week.
    When the Dodgers stumbled to start the season, falling to last place in the NL West while injuries piled up, speculation was rampant that Mattingly would be fired. Kasten indicated to him at the time that things needed to improve for Mattingly to keep his job.
    The team won 42 of 50 games during a torrid midseason stretch to take over first place and eventually won the division by 11 games over Arizona.
    “It was quite a remarkable season,” Colletti said.
    He wouldn’t comment on the status of Mattingly’s coaching staff, but it’s possible changes could be made, although Mattingly indicated he would like to keep it intact.
    NOTES: Dodgers CF Matt Kemp had arthroscopic surgery on his left ankle performed by Dr. Robert Anderson in Charlotte, N.C. The team said the procedure “involved removing several spurs, a loose body and doing a microfracture on the talus bone.” Kemp is expected to be in a splint for two weeks and a walking boot for another two weeks. But the Dodgers say “he is expected to be competitive in time for the regular season.”

  26. snarkk said, on October 21, 2013 at 6:25 pm

    Speaking of managers, Donny boy technically is the Doghairs manager for next season, his option vested by winning the NLDS, apparently. But he sure doesn’t seem to be in a good mood, or sure he’ll be back. And, Colletti gave him the dreaded confidence in him blather. Look at this photo — could these guys be further apart at that table? http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgersnow/la-sp-dn-dodgers-don-mattingly-20131021,0,760028.story#axzz2iPQypcFB

  27. snarkk said, on October 21, 2013 at 6:33 pm

    zumiee, great minds think alike and post at the same time, apparently…

  28. twinfan1 said, on October 21, 2013 at 7:45 pm

    yeah, mattingly bitched to a reporter about his situation ,within earshot of colletti. i wouldn’t bet the money for little bobby’s orthopedic surgery on donnie’s return…
    leyland? is it 5 years for managers, too? if so and he gets in the first year, it’s about a 50-50 he gets in posthumously…
    i’d skip the series , but when i don’t have a rooting interest it’s sorta like oscars.i watch to see who’ll do something really dumb…
    one of my favorite oscar moments involved glenda jackson, she was up for an oscar and i forget who won but as always the camera panned to all the other nominees. and there was glenda looking totally incredulous and seen quite disgustedly mouthing the winner’s name. it was one of the great ‘you gotta be kidding’ moments ever…

  29. twinfan1 said, on October 21, 2013 at 7:49 pm

    brian wilson made himself rich all over again due to his stint in lala land. say what you want about the dude, the decision to go with la will pay off big time.

  30. unca_chuck said, on October 21, 2013 at 7:54 pm

    Who’s to say Colletti survives ?

    • twinfan1 said, on October 21, 2013 at 8:06 pm

      well, the thinking might be that colletti helped get him the talent and pat sajak could have managed the team.


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