Tim Lincecum: Good Bye
Just a super quick Lincecum post before the ‘series starts Wednesday….
I see almost no possibility that he signs in SF. “No possibility” is probably too strong. I’ll go with 10% that he returns. I didn’t spend a lot of math time on computing that percentage. Here are my non-math reasons why:
1) Timmy is turning 30 next season, and while he’s definitely heading into what should be his mega contract free agent bonanza, he’s not exactly storming it with a yoked resume. We all know about his hideous ERA the last 2 seasons. His W/L record has always been abysmal for someone who boasts 2 Cy Young’s. But the biggie is that he just hasn’t found a pitch to replace his weakening fastball. What he doesn’t know (and what Ubaldo Jimenez figured out before he did) is that he needs a new approach to pitching, not a new pitch. The point of #1: this one’s actually a *support* for him re-signing. Pitchers staggering into free agency shouldn’t get monster deals. And yet those 2 CY Young’s are like liquid Meth for most MLB Gm’s. The reality…..
2) ….teams are starved for pitching. But they’re even more starved for PR moves that sell tickets. Tim Lincecum is still a rockstar, even minus the cropped dome. He’ll sell tickets and jerseys as he has continued to do with the Giants over the last 2 uninspiring years. Someone will throw 4 years/54 million at him. Book it. The Point of #2: The Giants won’t be that team.
3) He’s made around 60 million dollars in his career. He’s single, and by all accounts he’s a down to earth dude who doesn’t have a burning need to go build a monster palace next to Jeter in Florida (ha, go check that thing out some day when you’re bored). Timmy doesn’t need to accept the qualifying offer in order to parlay the value of a monster 2014 into an even more monster multi year deal. He can easily accept a 4 year/54 million dollar deal that will put his career earnings over 100 million and will guarantee him security for life, as well as the multiple as-yet-unidentified generations he will hand his fortune over to after he’s gone. The point of #3: He’s accepting reality that he’s no longer a CY guy, There’s no reason to accept the qualifying offer and risk another average year. That will only torpedo the 4yr/54 million dollar deal that he could get now. If he has a third underwhelming season in a row he’d be now looking at like a 2 year/16 million dollar deal going into 2015 and he can do that math easily in his head…….
4) and that makes this an easy call, he’s taking the 4 year deal that’s coming from someone other than the Giants this Winter………..
A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball 
I wonder what will come out of the SF organizational meetings in Arizona this week? Do the Giants ever leak anything?
They’re gossipy 7th grade girls compared to Harb’s and Balkke
4 years 54 million is a far cry from 6 at 120 or more. i agree with point 3-he’ll take the 4 at 60 or so that i mentioned or yours at 54, or something like that for one reason- he thinks he’s pitched as well as he ever will. but i don’t buy that he’s cool with 54 million, he didn’t sign a multiyear with us and took the two 20 mill deals so he could break the bank after this year. imo…
btw, i want to put up a thread with the final picks on wednesday afternoon if that’s alright with you.
Sure, post it
This might get lost if a new thread comes up about the playoffs contest, but I’m just wondering…. It is said a lot here that the G’s need, not want, need a new frontline starter for next season. If Tim goes, they need 2. Aside from all the talk about Price (not likely to happen), who would those 2 be? The likes of Arroyo? Does the team think 2 Arroyos will be better than an Arroyo and Tim? We can think that Tim wants a multi-year deal, but I have no idea what the team is thinking now. Just a few weeks ago, Sabean said Tim was the next priority after Pence. Haven’t heard anything since…
well, yeah i think they’d get 2 if tim doesn’t stay. 2 arroyos? if we want to battle it out for 4th again. it may not be price but i think they have to get a top of the line starter. nobody knows if cain is beginning a quick decline or if last year was an outlier. crick is probably due in ’15. for next year we have madbum, the questionable cain and about 11 number 7 starters. brian better get to work.
imo. and hi paul!
night all..
I think TL has to think long and hard about his immediate future, esp for a guy who has had so much trouble last 2 seasons pitching in a very friendly yard. AL East seems extremely unlikely except for Tampa and I doubt they hand him the money he wants. Too much scrutiny back there and a bad combo of heat/humidity and very hitter friendly parks.
NL East—outside of Nats, I don’t see anyone that has a prayer of challenging Braves. Why would Tim leave just to go sit out the playoffs again for a .500 team?
AL Central—couple maybes but vey doubtful.
NL Central–highly unlikely any contender pays his freight, and again issue of heat/humidity hitters yards.
AL West–sure Seattle and Angels good possibilities, but man those two clubs suck. A’s and Texas are both tough, and Texas always flings big money around and has talent. M’s and Angels fight for table scraps.
I have sneaking suspicion the reason TL isn’t into a big deal like what is in the thread is because he doesn’t want to turn into the next Zito somewhere—get a ton of money over a long term and have the expectations that he is the spark that turns whomever into instant front runner. And if he crashes and burns like Zito, every one hates him and the deal that makes him untradeable. Going somewhere else would necessarily bring extra added pressure with it..
One reason I like Timmy, among others, is that he’s unpredictable. Greinke said he’d go wherever they paid him one more dollar than the next team, or some such. Tim appears not to be totally that way. I tend to agree pretty much with BF’s thinking on this thread. He’s already earned well over $60 million in gross dollars. That buys a lot of hemp. And, not being married, he’s not going to potentially have to split that someday with a pissed off wife. So, money appears to me to not be the be all and end all in his contract calculus. However, with 2 Cys, 2 rings and a no hitter, he’s accomplished a ton in a short time. That’s enough for 2 careers, lets alone 6 years of one, so I think he’s got different factors rattling around in his head about what he wants to do, and where he wants to do it. I’ll be surprised and pleased if he stays with the Giants for 2014….
If the Tigers had Tim to come out of the Pen like Bochy used him in 2012 post=season, the Tigers might be in the Series now…
I’m pulling for the Cards to win. I’m a NL guy, I’ll never pull for the AL entrant unless the Doghairs are playing…
I don’t know…not sure I can see him getting a four year deal from anyone. Sure the 2 CYs and the no-no look good, but I can’t believe that any GM worth his salt is not focused on his production (or lack thereof) for the past two years. Fuck, in 2011 he had the HIGHEST ERA of any qualifying starter. That said, I just don’t see a four year deal.
So, if he gets a three year offer from a number of teams, and the Giants throw out a decent two year deal, he may just bite.
All that said, I hope like hell he comes back, but like snarkk, I will be pleasantly surprised if it happens.
I’m a NL guy, and usually pull for the NL in the WS, but this year, as I posted on one of the earlier threads, there is just something I like about Boston’s team this year (they, in many ways, remind me of our 2010 club). Anyway…I am going against the grain this year…Boston Strong, baby. I think it is going to be a good series.
snarkk – Dodgers / YankMees in the WS…who would you pull for?
That’s like choosing who should win on the Eastern front — Hitler or Stalin? I wouldn’t root for either one, Chi, but I suppose I would be pissed off LESS if the Yanks won. I’d go on a rooting strike like the BART unions…
I’d root for another earthquake.
I think I read that Seattle’s first round pick is protected (is this true?), so even if The Giants tag Tim with a qualifying offer the Ms could still pick him up. I think I also read where some players that were given the qualifying offer were able to negotiate a higher one year deal from their old team. So, if that’s true the Giants could offer him the qualifying $14 mil and Tim could say no, but I’ll take a one year $16 mil deal.
I still think the time is right to trade Buster. Think of the Matt Williams trade, where we strengthened multiple positions while only weakening one. In this case, the weakened position is Catcher, not a usual MVP position. Moving Buster to First and Belt to LF may strengthen LF (offensively) but IMO, you weaken both the Catcher and Firstbase positions. Trade Buster to the Braves, and get yourself a SP, a corner OF and some bench and/or BP help, now.
I remember seeing that too per M’s pick–they sucked end of season and I think their bottom feeder record moves the pick to end of first round. Might have been Baggs who brought this up as potential scenario.
I just don’t think Tim goes there, because of pressure he would face as hometown hero brought in to help fuel their surge to contention—something that likely doesn’t occur even if he is halfway decent. Seattle did move the fences in last year and there were more bombs hit there by both them and opponents. He has a 4.50 ERA (or worse) in a 3 yrs/$50 mil deal, natives would be restless.
Bozo, Braves have the Gattis kid, who can hit but can’t really play anywhere else, tho I’m sure they’d figure out something if they acquired Posey. Luv for SF to get hands on some of their young pitching.
Who gives a flying fart if Lincy comes back. If they signed a pitcher with HIS numbers the last 2 years, you guys would throw a fit.
Trade Posey? Please. just stop.
I would lead the parade to run him out of town wswins, if not for Lincecum’s peripheral numbers (e.g., his 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings still rank in the top 10 in the National League); and, he has pitched some real outstanding ballgames this year, such as the no hitter. It makes me wonder if he is on the cusp of figuring it out . . . or not.
Yes, his ERA has been putrid. Same deal with his WHIP. Lincecum finished the year 10-14 with a 4.37 ERA, and his 29 losses since the beginning of last season are the most in the majors. Definitely crappy numbers. However, it doesn’t matter why I would like to see him return. The Giants want to see him return because the promise of ticket sales alone is enough to justify any contract he receives here. I don’t fall in love with baseball players or the back of their baseball cards. However, there are many SF bay area fans that love Timmy and would be very pissed if he left.
Anywho, great post and I appreciate the honesty. 😉
Lincecum’s ERA this past season was inflated by bad defense, and horrible relief pitching that let score a ton of his runners left on, something like 2/3 of his runners left on were scored. And wins is a questionable stat when you have putrid run support that puts you consistently in the top 10 pitchers in the NL for worst run support. Even when Tim was in his Cy years, he had no run support, hence his win totals were low for a Cy Winner. If the Giants won’t pay him well for multiple years, somebody will…
Well, if some team wants to throw him 38-42 mil for three years or so, then giddy-up with that shit. No way I would want the Giants to go three…two max. And if all the chatter you hear is true, Tim is more inclined towards a shorter deal.
Blade said: “It makes me wonder if he is on the cusp of figuring it out. . . or not.”
Well, the high Ks/9 are cool, but the losses, ERA, WHIP are awful.
I would love to see Tim back, but not for anything more than the qualifying offer at 2 years (around 28 max)…and even that is higher than what I would care to see.
But, I don’t think you can get him for much less than that (if at all). If he leaves (as was discussed previously) you then have two holes to fill on the rotation. I think Sabes and crew will make a hard play for him (Sabean already said he was the number 2 priority after Pence). I just hope they don’t overpay in dollars or length of contract.
‘So, money appears to me to not be the be all and end all in his contract calculus’
hmmm..so this transformation occured when? he turned down well over 100 million from us and took 2 20 million deals for why? please. it’s simple- he figured he could get that 40 million *and* score that long term deal in free agency( the math was simple, he loses 40 miilion if he took our long term offer. the thinking was that he’d have that and the same or better long term contract after 2013.) there is absolutely nothing in tim’s ‘contract calculous’ that indicates anything but a guy trying to get every penny he can. obviously the best laId plans ran into a problem- he’s pitched like a 10 million dollar guy (at best) for the last two years…he may take that 3 or 4 years at 13-15 mill per year- but only because he thinks it’s the best he’ll ever get – and he may be right. the story about the ‘cool dude, hey, who cares about that extra filthy lucre’ just doesn’t jibe with his contract dealings. to be clear before some folks get all bent and think i hate timmy- i’m on his side- he’ll do what he thinks is best for himself financially. his dealings make that crystal clear. it will get down to his confidence level- he’ll go with the best long term deal now- which will be *at least* 60 million short of what he dreamt of when he spurned out long term extension- or he’ll feel that he can rebuild his value with a short term 1 or 2 year deal and get at least something close to the riches he dreamt of when he turned down that long term deal here…
imo.
Twin – did you get my email (WS picks)?
yep, you’re in.
It’s hard not to ignore Timmy’s awful numbers these last 2 years. I don’t think he even wants a long-term deal. Even for clueless/knee-jerk GMs out there.
I think it’s about 60% Timmy stays. 2/$25 would be a good place to start.
Did anyone link to the Jon Heyman article? He apparently said that Timmy has already turned down a 2 year deal with the Giants, but that he’s not looking for a long-term deal.
I’m guessing Tim still believes he can get back to being a top starter. Just ego and pride if nothing else. He talked about making changes, taking a different approach, studying hitters talking the with the groper…all which suggests he “thinks” its possible.
The results were mixed but for a guy with his track record, believe he still has confidence in his ability to turn it around significantly.
His last 2 months were certainly an improvement over the last 2 seasons, and I think that’s what he’s basing his assumptions on, but I don’t think that warrants a 4 year deal. Then again, I ain’t a GM sitting on a gazillion dollars.
as i like to say- these haven’t been your worst posts, chuck 😉
what you quoted from heyman reflects what many paid observers feel- ‘he is said to have a belief that he’s on the verge of regaining his past form’- and that would be in line with a one or two deal now. if it’s correct that he harbors that belief, he’ll opt for that short term. the other more important consideration is whether the team could better spend that money elsewhere. we would still need a top flight starter or we’d sit where we did last year- a 1 (madbum), a 3 (cain), a fair to middling 4 ( timmy) , no 2, and a disastrous or unproven 5. i’ve been for, against, for again, and back to anti as this drama unfolds. my feeling now is that i hope he’ll get a nice deal somewhere else, we trade for the top flight starter and spend the 14 million on a good number 4 and a short term left field solution- marlon byrd, for example.
I’ve been back and forth on Tim, too. Last night and this morn I said I would like to see him back (but not overpaid for). I certainly have had similar thoughts as to could the money be better used elsewhere. Hell, come end of the day I may be 180 degrees out and wishing him the best with a heartfelt “good luck elsewhere and thanks for playing.”
the ticket sales arguments is a good one- if he was still a rock star. he’s kinda playing state fairs right now. a pitcher coming off two poor years isn’t going to do much for season ticket sales, he’s not going to be looked at as a difference maker until he actually starts to make a difference. there would be bump in walk in ticket sales when he pitches and that could lead to a spike in ticket sales- but for now if he leaves he’s ‘on probation’ with the fans in his new town.
Testing the market is the prudent thing to do. Timmy and his agent are no dummies. Still he might eschew a long term contract to avoid the huge expectations that come with such a deal. He could come back in the final analysis after all if the market is soft. His last two years are not a positive and it’s shocking how far he’s fallen from his Cy years.
“Timmy and his agent are no dummies.”
Maybe not dummies, but they sure did fuck up on Timmy’s worth in 2011, when they eschewed the Giants $100 million dollar contract offer. I can almost guarantee he will never recoup the $60 million dollars he left on the table. Like Dirty Harry said, “A man’s got to know his limitations.”
If he gets 30 mil or so over two years (or something close) it will be almost a wash compared to the 5/100 deal the Giants offered. How?
Signs 5/100 deal in 2011. Averages 20 mil per in 2011-2015.
Currently he has made about 65 mil working the short deals with Los Gigantes and those took him through 2013 and his current FA status. Add another 30 mil or so for the next two years (through 2015) and again…it is pretty much a wash. (He cerainly hasn’t left a ton of money on the table in the above scenario.)
“How?”
Read Twin’s 9:25am, which says essentially the same thing, but in a different way . . . Too tired to explain it again and besides, I am going to take a nap before hitting the movie, Captain Phillips with a girl friend. 😉
Cot’s lays out what he has made to date (same as I listed). Approximately 65 mil (64.5 is closer).
If he had taken the 100 mil in 2011, he would have 8 mil in the bank from 2010. Add 100 mil he is at 108.
Currently he sits at 65. If he gets even just 30 mil over the next two years, that pushes him to 95. So, he is short 13 mil compared to taking the 5 year 100 mil deal…but certainly NOT 60 mil or so.
In retrospect, he may have made an extra 10 mil or so with the LTD. But he isn’t taking a huge (again 60 mil hit) in choosing the road he is currently on.
Exactly, Chi. His short term contract decisions will cost him some dough, but not horrendous in the scheme of things. In aggregate, he’ll come out with a pretty fat checkbook over his career run, regardless of what he does/what he signs in the next few years. Saying he’ll be 60 million short of what he could or might have had is ludicrous…
Chi, these contracts are guaranteed, are you following? He steps in front of a trolley car tomorrow and dies or his arm is dismembered, he gets zero, zilch, nada, goose egg . . . Now, do the math and let me know what you come up with. 🙂
Snarkk, you should know better being an attorney. Sheesh, even Saul Goodman would have told Timmy to take the money and run.
Blade, I get the guaranteed deal. So what? If he’s healthy, once he signs the next deal(s), they’re guaranteed, too. He won’t get chump change for the coming years. With the Q offer, that’s about $14M, so some idiot team will probably offer him at least a two year deal worth $25M. He won’t end up $60M short in the aggregate career. If he pitches for another 4 years, he’ll end up near or likely over $100M career earnings. I won’t be crying for him. Since he’s been smart enough to stay single when he signs the deals, it’s all his, too…
BTW, blade, you still watching Breaking Bad?…
I get the guaranteed contract bit. If he steps in front of a trolley tomorrow, with the operative word being “IF.” If my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle, too.
Point is, that where Tim stands now, and what he probably is going to get for the next couple of years, he may be light 10 mil or so (compared to taking that 5/100), but he IS NOT going to be 60 mil short.
Yeah, I thought I said that same thing earlier. Tim had a chance to lock himself in, but chose not to. Maybe it was still seeing how Zits was personally torn up by the onerous salary he toiled under. Or maybe he was looking for a bigger payday down the road.
Whatever the reasoning, he did miss out on some scratch. But, really, other than a measuring stick, $40 mill compared to $60 mill is splitting hairs. He’s single, low-key, and for all intents and purposes never going to spend that coin in 10 lifetimes.
And, if you can sign him for 2/25, why not? I’d rather look for a LFer to throw money at. Timmy’s a 3 now. Sure, you have to hope that Matt the Horse regains his form, but still and all, I’d love to see that rotation stick together for another couple years.
Besides, if Matty goes south, we’ll be in deep shit regardless of whether Timmy’s here or not.
Well put.
I’m still thinking Cain is a 2 with his strong second half. Awful start and a bad July but otherwise he was solid. I think they have to have faith next yr he’ll be the horse given the dough he’s earning.
Whatever the deal with Tim is or isn’t, the Giants better get after it regarding their rotation. Their rotation is nowhere, after the top 2. Regardless of who they get to re-stock the 3 vacant starter positions, SF will still be behind the Dodgers. LA already has the kickass 3 starters of Kershaw, Greinke and Ryu, with Nolasco, Beckett, and Billingsley in line to take the last two, plus they’re going strongly after Price and probably a AA or AAA pitcher who will compete. I’m probably forgetting somebody. And, their Pen is in good shape, though they might lose Wilson. They’ll likely have a hellaciously strong starting 4, and a 5 that won’t be dogmeat. Strong pitching will not be a problem for LA next year. With the Giants, it is right now, with 3 starters to fill and a Pen that needs to be rebuilt. I say SF should really see if they can push Crick to be ready by mid 2014. Hell, this Wacha kid for St. Louis was brought up after one year in the minors. Yeah, he was a college player, but Crick is of the age Bum and Cain were brought up, I think he’s even a little older. IF he’s mowing ’em down at AA next season, bring him up…
Doghairs purging themselves. Just today fired Donny’s bench coach and bud, Trey Hillman. Also dismissed advance scout Wade Taylor, and head athletic trainer Sue Falsone quit yesterday. Too many injuries, looks like, for the trainer to survive. Interesting that they’d fire the bench coach, out from under Mattingly. Maybe they want to force Donny to quit, and thus not take his next year’s salary. If that’s the way they’re handling it, that’s pretty rough business, sounds like some bad blood going on there. I’d be surprised if Mattingly lasts the next few days…
I think Two Steps is all but gone. Look for Johnny B. to be at the helm for Los Bumbinos next year.
If they’re PO’d about Donny’s poor tactical and pitcher management, I wouldn’t call Dusty a huge upgrade. If they want to get Puig’s head in the right direction, Dusty’s probably a good choice. I still think he’s too damaged goods, but he’s an ex Dodger, maybe that counts for something that helps overlook a good decade leading the Giants…
some of you are trying to compare what he’s likely to get *now*, not what he thought he’d get. and 65 milion is irrelevant, the turned down the 100+ before signing the consecutive 20 million dollar deals. anything he made before that has no relevance. he thought he’d get *mininum* 120 in free agency after this year *and* the 40 million. wrongo. now he has the 40 million and maybe 60. he leaves 2 years of security (if he gets 60 for 4 ) and 60 on the table based on what he thought he would get.
and please with the fantasy that he doesn’t give a shit about making every penny he can. everything in his dealings says the total opposite. and that’s absolutely fine.
he’s now deciding whether he can get the long term 100+ contract by rehabbing his value over 1 or 2 years *or* taking the most he can get now. it’s all about whatever he and his advisors think will benefit him most financially. there’s a gamble in option one- but the talk is that he thinks he can do it. either way- it’s about bucks. as far the girlfriend stuff- wife or girlfriend is going live lavishly on money already earned. if he marries, she will share in future earnings. unless he marries a bumgarner relative, there ain’t gonna be no pre-nup.
Flash — Timmy re-signs with Giants. Details coming…
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Tim Lincecum is staying put with the San Francisco Giants just as he hoped, reaching agreement Tuesday on a two-year contract through the 2015 season.
The deal is pending a physical, which had yet to be scheduled, according to assistant GM Bobby Evans.
General manager Brian Sabean said when the season ended among his top priorities was to bring back the two-time NL Cy Young Award winner, who also indicated he cherishes familiarity and wanted stay with the only club he has known. He pitched the Game 5 clincher in the 2010 World Series at Texas, then shifted to the bullpen and became a reliable reliever during the Giants’ 2012 run to their second title in three years.
Sabean wanted to lock up Lincecum’s deal before he hit free agency.
Early report is 2 years at over $30M total…
KNBR reporting $35 million…
Tim Lincecum………HELLO
that’s just mean, nipper. shame on you.
So much for GOOD BYE.
Well, I am as big a fan of Tim as any, but I think they overpaid (if you base this on his past couple of years results). I do hope he has turned the corner and over the next two years makes this deal look like a steal.
And once the ink dries, he is basically at the 100 mil that he nixed in 2011…
I figured some “idiot” team would offer him at least $25M for 2 years. Giants must have gauged the market and there were plenty of idiots out there. At $17.5M per, I’d say Tim came away smelling pretty good…
Great news – Tim is just really learning how to “pitch” after struggling with the loss of velocity. Plus he still could become the Eckersley of his generation (sans facial hair) if it ever goes the closer direction. He was just too valuable in every way to let go.
I hope you are right, 78. I still think they overpaid, but probably had to to keep him in the fold.
Hope so too Chi & they very well may have overpaid. I guess that “rainy day” fund is coming in handy.
http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/414441/giants-re-sign-tim-lincecum-to-two-year-deal
Giants re-signed RHP Tim Lincecum to a two-year, $35 million contract.
CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman says the righty will receive a full no-trade clause. Lincecum might have been able to net a long-term deal somewhere, but he preferred a short deal as he attempts to re-establish his value. The right-hander has posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 383 2/3 innings the past two seasons, but he’s struck out a batter per inning and remained durable, so he has value even if he doesn’t rebound.
He’s only 5’10”, he’s good on the break, but you can’t expect him to rebound much…
That’s a pretty irrational move, but it doesn’t disappoint me the same way it would for most other players. I still harbor a small suspicion that Timmy will bounce back. I appreciated BF’s pointer to Ubaldo the other day.
His problem has been the HRs and BBs. Timmy has never had anywhere near Eckersley’s control.
He is in many ways a work in progress, which is strange for a 2-time Cy winner. He can be dominant out of the pen but admittedly the Eck comparison is just based on starter turned reliever/ body type. It will be interesting to see how it all works out.
It’s apparent that he is hoping to rehab his value with the short term contract, as much of the thinking had it. it’s a gamble, but more so for the team than for timmy. it’s a *hope* that cain return to 2012 form, and a *hope* that tim is closer to a 3 ( not to mention a 1 or 2, which is what 17.5 can buy) than a 5. sabean still needs to get to work on a guy they can bank on as a #2 level starter. yes, i know that nothing is for sure, but they need something less iffy than they’ve got- which is still madbum and a whole lot of praying.
I’m glad I was wrong figuring Tim was gone. I’m absolutely jazzed to have him back. The ties that bind are apparently strong. Plus, the Giants have 3 gaping holes in the rotation. Uh, had. This is great news. It signals the Giants know they are in a battle with LA for the division over the foreseeable future, and they are up for the challenge. It also means $11 beers coming soon…
Well, I didn’t think they’d go that high, but whatever. It beats a 4 year / $54 mill deal.
Really, if he bounces back to a smidge better than .500 many will be happy. For a 3 that’s marginally acceptable, but, hey, its Timmy. Hope against reason is he flourishes
He’s got to deal with the fact that his FB isn’t his K pitch anymore.
I’m fine with this deal. This gets us to Crick’s arrival.
Glad he’ll be back. I just didn’t see the G’s getting TWO front-line starters from elsewhere if he left, even for $17m a year. And even though nostalgia is not a good reason to over-pay a player, Timmy is truly a giant on this Giants team, for its persona, clubhouse comraderie, etc. The thought of the team without Tim disturbed me a bit. Another two years with him still here feels a lot better. Of course, now he really does need to improve, change his approach, etc., and I do believe he will. It’s good news.
Overpaid? Of course, by about $5M, IMO. But the ownership circle is filthy rich and they gotta keep those butts in the seats and as so many have re-re-reiterated, he remains the face of the franchise. Second major reason is that gaping hole so many have cited.
Now it looks to be one starter pickup from outside the organization via FA, International or trade (the most likely, i think ~ sayonara, Pablo? or see-ya Hector?) and the #5 to be drawn from the organizational pool, centering on Petit and Surkamp, with Escobar a possibility.
That #3 or 4 starter comes first and then the focus turns to L.F. where a .280 caliber slash hitter with occasional pop would be the most likely acquisition. After that, i’d range in on some veteran pop for the bench with perhaps our fifth or sixth best starter prospect and a throw-in going to the Twins for Josh Willingham, who would get the odd start when the pitching matchup looked favorable to his barely over Mendoza BA this immediate past season.
Timmy’s signing signals that SF is serious about returning to the hunt. Right three moves and the Giants should be competitive once again. We are looking at an even-numbered year coming up in a bit over 5 months.
KNBR the other day said there were rumors of Panda trades being discussed at 3rd and King. This early, before the end of the WS, even a whiff of news about trading him is quite interesting, and unthinkable a few years ago. With KNBR the Giants mouthpiece, I dunno if that is idle chatter, or something floated by Baer & Co. to gauge public opinion and/or get the fanbase ready for something this offseason…
It seems logical for Pablo to be the subject of rumors with his problems on and off the field, FA and lack of other trade bait.
But I doubt they go that route now for precisely those reasons. His value is down, so they might as well keep him and hope he is inspired to put up a big year before hitting FA.
My Mom told me she read something about a Fielder/ Panda trade last week. Although she might not be a reliable source when it comes to baseball matters 🙂 However, she is required to print all of the Giants’ news for my Dad every morning since he does not want to, or care to use the computer. Sorry to the trees …
“Four pennants in 10 seasons? In this era? With nowhere near the highest payroll? Cardinals are the best organization in baseball.” Per Henry Schulman…
He’s right, and it’s not even really debatable.
I think I read that 17 guys on 40 man make less than 600k this yr.
Henry is smart, this time, since he agrees with what I’ve been saying about the Cards. 😉 Yes, there’s no objective argument against what he said. What Giants fans should want is for the Giants to get to where the Cards are. In the hunt virtually every year, with a farm system that’s constantly bringing up players ready to push the status quo on the big club, thus keeping the overall payroll at reasonable levels, where you don’t have to constantly search for FAs to fill multiple needs, but fill a want, here and there…
If Twin’s correct (and I think he is) that Timmy’s always been about maximizing his earning power in the future, then he must think this is probably the best deal out there (especially per year).
You don’t “rebuild your value” on a 2 yr deal, you do that on a 1 year deal.
‘You don’t “rebuild your value” on a 2 yr deal, you do that on a 1 year deal.’
well, what’s being reported is that is his reasoning. and the fact that he bypassed testing the waters adds more credence to that, not less. but whatever, he got paid for as a 2, it will be nice if he rebuilds his pitching to justify it.
i really do want to be excited but for now everybody seems psyched that we’re starting to rebuild last year’s team with last year’s players. i liked the pence signing because he was the best free agent corner outfielder available. but was timmy the best out there for the bucks or was he a good pr move? bottom line- it’s a 35 million dollar *hope* for both parties.
imo.
Of course that’s going to come out as the reasoning. He’s not gonna say this is the best he thought he could get. Gotta think that while his agent couldn’t negotiate with other teams yet he had some good inside info on the teams who were interested in him and a ballpark of what they would pay. With the giants dangling 35 mil over only 2 years, he snapped it up.
I don’t blame him, and the deal really does make sense for both sides.
hell no, i don’t blame him, he hopes to refile in two years and make the 100+ he turned down so he could get 40 million first *and* the 100+. now he gets that 40 plus the 35. and gets two years to try for the 100+. he’s no goober. if it all works out we get 2 good years from him and seattle gets 6. if not- you’re right- he’s squeezed everything a man could possibly squeeze from those last two years 40 mill in the bank and 35 mill on the way.
they’re a great organization. also per schulman via twitter : Cain, Lincecum. Bum, Romo, Wilson, Posey, Belt, Craw, Pablo.. sfgiants don’t know how to draft/develop players like STL…
I am glad Timmy re-signed, and did not resign. Hope he continues the good trajectory seen as the season neared its end.
According to Cot’s Contracts and this new signing, not including Cy Young and AS and performance bonuses, and including his original signing bonus, by the end of the 2015 season Timmeh will have earned about $102 million. That should buy a lot of Wash State “hemp” products…
i’d guess madbum is saying sumthin like this :
‘well, i’ll be a blue-nosed possum. that sumabitch just got the same durn thing as i got fer 6 years.’
seriously folks, bumgarner is simply not of this earth if he didn’t go looking for every watercooler in the carolinas when this news broke…
i know it’s ‘gopher’- north of the mason-dixon line. in hickory it’s possum. don’t ask, i just know these things.
Signing Tim SAVED money. 😉 They cut his salary by 2.5M per year over the past two years. With Zito gone, they saved 20-7 = 13M. So, they can spend that combined amount on another decent FA starter. That gives them 4 starters. Then, choose among Petit, Voggy and Gaudin for the #5. Get your LFer, and strengthen the bench with a new utility guy, you’re good to go. Uribe is now a FA from LA. I wouldn’t be shocked if he comes back here. LA signed infielder Guerrero out of Cuba, so he’s going to displace Uribe or Ellis. Either of those guys I could deal with on a one year basis as a utility guy…
funny stuff. they need ‘one decent fa starter’. you’ve gone soft, snarkk. they have one for sure, one maybe, another perhaps, and pray for rain. signing tim doesn’t negate the need for a ‘price-level’ starter. even then, we have at least two very iffy spots in the rotation.
Snarkk, Of the $13m, Posey gets a 4.5m bump, Bum 3, Pagan Romo and Pablo 2….
I read the other day that the Cardinals only have 7 players from their 2011 team. That’s an amazing amount of turnover for a championship team in that amount of time. Probably even more than the Giants did from 2012 from 2010, which was a lot, too, obviously.
Interesting documentary on ESPN about a guy, Spano, who bought the NY Islanders in the 1990s without having any money. He was a total fraud. He actually owned the team for about 4 months, and then later went to prison for fraud. Crazy world sometimes.
Kurt Vonnegut once said that the advantage the evil person has is their ability to keep surprising you with how evil they are.
craig- i was planning on a thread on the contest picks tomorrow afternoon, maybe you want to put up a new timmy post first.
sure, anything to get the “10% chance of returning” thread off the books. 🙂
see, i’m always lookin’ out for ya.
Snarkk, yes, I am still watching Breaking Bad. Took a 2 week hiatus while in Arizona, but now starting the last season (5). Unbelievable ending with Gus in last show of season 4. By the by, I just returned from seeing Captain Phillip . . . One of the best films I have seen this year. Very intense and sad (actually felt sorry for the Somalians a bit . . . very poor people, with limited, umm, career choices besides fishing and pirating. Anywho, great film.
Pawlie, got your ph. message, and yes, Skype is cool – let me know when.
i’m kinda bummed- i have every episode from all 5 seasons recorded but i screwed up and the last two before the finale didn’t record. i’m sure i can find them on rerun. if a ‘bad’ devotee wins the pc i’ll put the whole series on the external drive if it’s wanted.
Let me know if there is a “bonus PC” prize for most Breaking Bad episodes watched in a single 24 hour period, day, or week.
I said all along this would happen, reasons stated last couple threads–it’s the best deal in the best place
for HIM. Whether it’s the right move for Giants is something only time will tell.
Good teams are not starved for pitching either—best 5 teams in NL that made playoffs were also top 5 pitching teams. what isn’t out there are good hitters, which is why ancient Marlon byrd will rake it in. Reggie Sanders/Kenny Lofton he is not. Also the reason Yanks with all their $$ wound up with guys like Lyle Overbay and Soriano.
Michael, per your 5:23, while I am happy with the Pence and Tim re-signings, I will not be psyched if they continue to just bring back the same team other than those 2. I don’t think Sabean will be either; in addition to making Pence and Tim his first 2 priorities, he also seemed to be chomping at the bit to make other changes. I still think he’s got a big trade in him this off-season. Looking forward to seeing what he does. So far, he’s doing what he said he would do…. we’ll see what’s next.
i know i’m in unfamiliar territory for me- doomer. i’m just not certain that 17 million couldn’t have been used on safer options.