A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball

Tim Lincecum: Aloha!

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on October 22, 2013

Someone once told me that “Aloha” means goodbye and hello. That always always sounded stupid to me. Today it’s my way of disguising my “good bye” thread from yesterday.

And when I said “10% chance he’d return” I’d like to point out that I qualified that with “I didn’t spend a lot of math time computing that percentage.” Plus, I’m not very good at math. Still, my take on this is that 10% ain’t such bad odds as they used to be……

But seriously, this is a good deal for both sides. Timmy gets 35 more million dollars after spending 2 years being one of the worst starting pitchers in either league. And relax, I said “the last 2 years”. And I’m right, he’s in the bottom 10% of qualified starting pitchers, easily. Uh oh, there’s that 10% thing again……. But hey, no one ever contended that free agent pitchers get paid for what they’re gonna do, they get paid for what they did on the back of their baseball card. And Timmy’s card looks good if you read the whole thing……..

And I’ve bought into the Koolade that he is starting to change his approach to pitching, doing more research on hitters and hopefully developing his specialty pitches. His K’s are still there, the talent is still there. Once you display a skill, you own it for life. I truly believe that so I have to take the positive take on Timmy’s next chapter as a major league pitcher.

And 2 years is perfect. If I was a GM every single deal I’d do would be 2 years. Love the length of the deal……..

46 Responses

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  1. paulinasia said, on October 22, 2013 at 8:53 pm

    Yep, agree that it’s a good signing, as talked about in the last thread. And Michael, per your 5:23pm in the last thread, agree with your perhaps somewhat tempered excitement at this point… and while I am happy with the Pence and Tim re-signings, I will not be psyched if they continue to just bring back the same team. I don’t think Sabean will be either; in addition to making Pence and Tim his first 2 priorities, he also seemed to be chomping at the bit to make other changes. I still think he’s got a big trade in him this off-season. Looking forward to seeing what he does. So far, he’s doing what he said he would do…. we’ll see what’s next.

    • twinfan1 said, on October 22, 2013 at 10:02 pm

      i gave a short reply on the last thread, paul. omg. i’ve turned into a doomer. shoot me now while i stil have polly cred…

  2. unca_chuck said, on October 22, 2013 at 9:05 pm

    If you are in the Bay Area and get NFL Network, they are doing a show on Pat Summeral. They’ve already talked about Ray Scott. Maybe they’ll talk about him more.

    • twinfan1 said, on October 22, 2013 at 10:00 pm

      pat was always gracious in crediting my dad with being the influence for his low key style. the essence of that style was ‘shut up, don’t tell the audience what they can see for themselves.’ and they had two of the great voices of the game. i borrowed a word from pop, i use it a lot – ‘delighted’. he opened nearly opening kick off with ‘we’re delighted you’re with us’ and he seemed to really really mean it, really…i’m not being biased when i say that many still think he was the greatest football play-by-play announcer ever. he said bill king was the best. he and king both did nba ball for awhile- king for a long time, my dad did the suns for a few years. i think he got canned there when he wouldn’t report on unsubstantiated drug rumors surrounding several suns. i’m not totally ‘delighted’ with his decision to not report it but he said he had been around the block enough that he had earned the right to make that call. all the players were exonerated of any drug use. as to king, they became good friends and never were there two more different characters. king would broadcast in his barefeet, he drove junkers that he’d leave alongside the road when they crapped out, he was also truly a man for all seasons.. my dad was more ‘traditional’- but they had one thing in common- two of the most opionated guys in the biz-off the air.well, in bill’s case- on the air as well.
      summerall was as nice a man as he was a fine announcer. he struggled with alcoholism towards the end of his career, but i believe he beat it. madden wasn’t everybody’s cup of tea. but another thing pat emulated was to let the analyst do his job- analyze. he never stepped on the color guy’s thing. even with ‘brookie’, his first partner when pat moved to play-by-play. brookshier was an insouciant soul, and really a better color guy than he got credit for. sort of a dandy don without the schtick.
      ok-enough ‘oh my papa’ good night all.

      • paulinasia said, on October 22, 2013 at 10:08 pm

        Actually, I remember your Dad saying that “delighted” opening. I remember also being delighted to be watching… 🙂

  3. Nipper said, on October 22, 2013 at 9:33 pm

    Where’s Rooster? Keeping a vigil for Donny Two-Steps?

    • zumiee said, on October 22, 2013 at 10:14 pm

      I’m a little disappointed in the Rooster. You gots to stick by your team.

      • Rooster said, on October 22, 2013 at 11:07 pm

        Zoom – been a little busy this past weekend with the kids and the beach and the daughter’s volleyball team and by the time I sit down (like right now) to peruse a few minutes before hitting the rack, the first thing that I want to do is read about guys celebrating the demise of the Dodgers. I really, really wanted to post a bunch of comments on the “Dodgers Suck” post but … uh…. yeah, right – it ain’t happenin’ just on principal alone, bruther. But I see that *BoSox in 6* did me right and I’m atop the standings in THE Contest.
        Time to e-mail the man, twinfan.

  4. Alleykat said, on October 22, 2013 at 9:40 pm

    Well I’m all for Sabean making some deals.
    Set my OF with Choo LF,Pagan CF,Pence RF
    Trade Romo and Panda Panda goes to Houston to eat Steak and Ribs and becomes their DH.. We get Matt Dominguez 3B Astros,kid has the glove,21 Bombs 77 RBI’S 1st full season and doesn’t need a fat farm monitoring his girth.
    Sign freakin Tanaka Sabes,Show some “BALLS_
    Shit if your not confident in Hembree or Casilla closing, use Tim in the role next year and they become the 7th,8 th inning guys.
    Then shore up 2nd when Scoots breaks do
    wn,and look to the Angels for Howie
    Kendricks who is on the blocks.
    Fuck let’s get look at Billy Butler as well, great pop,needs a postion, but hell Produces”

    • twinfan1 said, on October 22, 2013 at 10:13 pm

      you forgot some dommy stats- .241 ba/ .286 obp/ 690 ops 89 ops+..
      30 walks 589 pa – just what everybody needs- a hacker who can’t hit.. some of your other stuff is interesting, though. fun post.

  5. sportdude said, on October 22, 2013 at 10:15 pm

    Tim had 65% of his inherited runners score vs 28% league average. Someone figure out his ERA with 6-7 less earned runs…
    Good deal for both Giants and Timmy!

    • Macdog said, on October 22, 2013 at 10:43 pm

      Baggs did just that: “Giants officials also noted that Lincecum had rotten luck when it came to inherited runners this past season. According to the Chronicle’s Henry Schulman, Lincecum left 20 runners and 13 scored, or 65 percent. The league average is 28 percent. (If the bullpen had been on par with the league average, Lincecum’s ERA would’ve been 4.00.)”

      • twinfan1 said, on October 22, 2013 at 11:48 pm

        couldn’t sleep as usual
        ‘If the bullpen had been on par with the league average, Lincecum’s ERA would’ve been 4.00.)”
        the cheap bastards, he should have gotten 25 per year…
        ok. i’ll go, i’ll go…to the bed,…
        a funny thing happened at the bank today. as i was approaching the teller in the scooter, i was trying to get my checkbook out of the tote bag hanging on the back. so the teller says..
        ‘ can’t you get it all out, michael ‘…..
        …………………………….i’m tryin’ dear, i’m tryin’.

        back to bed…

  6. chipower9 said, on October 23, 2013 at 8:34 am

    Well, I will be happy that Tim was brought back if he can pick-up where he left off last year. 17.5 is a lot of coin for a guy who was statistically speaking one of the worst starters in the majors over the past two years. As I said yesterday, I think they overpaid.

    I agree with Michael in that sure it is good to have one spot in the rotation nailed down with Tim. But he is more a question mark than a definitive bright spot in the rotation. They must go out and get a “solid” starter that is “without doubt” a number 2 on any teams rotation.

    And while the five spot will probably be filled internally, I am not crazy with that thought, but to beef up the bench, bullpen, and get a legit LFer, that is probably the reality of the situation.

    So, according to Sabes, his next priority will be to re-sign Lopez. Will be an interesting off-season…still a ton of work to do if they are truly going to compete with the Bumbinos next year.

    • twinfan1 said, on October 23, 2013 at 9:27 am

      good morning, chi. i know i seemed pretty down on the deal, but only for the very real risk that they’ve just signed another ‘serviceable’ pitcher for major dollars. as a lot of people have noted, his ‘peripherals’ look better than his record would seem to indicate.
      rob neyer has an amusing recap of the deal- ‘Oddly enough, this is a $35 million bet on sabermetrics by a franchise that routinely dismisses the value of sabermetrics.’ and baseball prospectus shows a table that clearly demonstrates that ‘what’s going to make or break this deal is if Lincecum can improve his performance with runners on base’. without going into all the eye glazing details, he actually pitched better with the bases empty as he ever had. but his performance with runners on has been his achilles heel in 2012 and 2013. there are two explanations- and the good news is they are still solvable, or at least improvable- daddy and rags need to get to work- his failure to hold runners on is a real issue that leads to more runners in scoring position and 2. he has worse command from the stretch…
      now, as timmy, dad, and rags have their work cut out for then this spring, we look to sabean to get to work in providing some insursance for his ‘sabermetrics gamble’…

      • chipower9 said, on October 23, 2013 at 9:49 am

        Michael – I didn’t see you as “being down” on the deal…just more adding some realistic perspective. And I have been trying to do the same. My first post after it was noted that he had signed yesterday was “I think they overpaid.” And with that, I just posted a link for an article from McCovey Chronicles that spells out how, without a good bump in payroll, the team could now be challenged at getting the remaining pieces they need to be competitive. I know how much almost everyone is in love with Timmy, but you really have to put the emotions aside and try to see what is best for making this team competitive for next year, and the years beyond.

  7. Irish Kevin said, on October 23, 2013 at 9:12 am

    Delighted to be here and read all your comments. Flav I don’t think you have drunk as much koolade as Krukow,
    Krukow went all homer on KNBR this morning about Timmy and how he has changed. he probably had to wipe down his phone with alcohol he was drooling so much. Anyway, Flav your are right a 2 year deal was/is perfect. the best case scenario is Timmy becomes a “PITCHER”. worst case senario is we have Zito for 2 years.

    • twinfan1 said, on October 23, 2013 at 10:29 am

      the two years was the second most ‘perfect’ duration- one year was better( considering the present circumstances for both parties). but whether it’s one year or two, from tim’s perspective, it’s just what he hopes will be a stepping stone to grab the 100 million contract that the last two years torched. 2 years is only ‘perfect’ if it’s looked at as perfect thru the lens of ‘reduced expectations’. it mollifies a fan base that is still enamored of tim for his past performance and is forgiving of the last two years. the two years shortens the misery if he fails to return to effectiveness, and it gives tim enough coin to take the gamble that he can regain that effectiveness and land the retirement contract after the 2015 season. perfect? yes, in the rather weird but real sense that the contract is win-win or lose-lose for both parties.

  8. Rooster said, on October 23, 2013 at 9:27 am

    Unrelated to Lincecum getting overpaid – but here are some supposed values of some MLB teams according to Bloomberg today :

    Top 10 MLB Teams (Total Value):

    1 New York Yankees $3.3 Billion
    2 Los Angeles Dodgers $2.1 Billion
    3 Boston Red Sox $2.1 Billion
    4 New York Mets $2.1 Billion
    5 Chicago Cubs $1.3 Billion
    6 San Francisco Giants $1.2 Billion
    7 Baltimore Orioles $1.1 Billion
    8 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim $1.1 Billion
    9 Philadelphia Phillies $1 Billion
    10 Texas Rangers $1 Billion

    Bottom Six MLB Teams (Total Value):

    25 Miami Marlins $595 Million
    26 Oakland Athletics $590 Million
    27 Colorado Rockies $580 Million
    28 Cleveland Indians $575 Million
    29 Kansas City Royals $540 Million
    30 Tampa Bay Rays $530 Million

    • chipower9 said, on October 23, 2013 at 9:41 am

      WTF Cock-a-Doodle-Do…your Bums are NOT the highest valued team? Fucking slackers…they need to get with the program. 😉

  9. chipower9 said, on October 23, 2013 at 9:44 am

    I’m really not dooming here…just sharing some realistic perspective (those of you who know me know that I am an optimist at heart…glass half-full kinda guy…but also with a realistic outlook).

    With that said, here is an article on the outlook of the Giants payroll vs. team needs. It certainly makes you wonder if that 17 mil might have been spent more effectively elsewhere (come on #55…prove me WRONG).

    Thanks to my bud, Demp28, for sharing this article with me this morn.

    http://tinyurl.com/o39ysr8

  10. unca_chuck said, on October 23, 2013 at 9:57 am

    Good stuff, Mike. I just missed your dad as an announcer, as I grew up with Brooksheier and Summeral. I was also a huge Warriors fan back then, and loved Bill King. he did everything, and his football announcing was top notch, but I think he shone as the voice of the Warriors.

    I think he’s still the only announcer to get a technical foul called on him during a game.

  11. Irish Kevin said, on October 23, 2013 at 10:10 am

    Interesting article on the 89 quake. quotes from all sorts of players and management

    http://tinyurl.com/lcdqa99

  12. PawlieKokonuts said, on October 23, 2013 at 11:20 am

    Tiny news flash: I learned that Necklace Babe, from the January 2013 WS trophy event at Finnerty’s, as shown in vid here, had a girl, Charlotte, Oct. 1. All well. Congrats, M.U.C.

  13. Alleykat said, on October 23, 2013 at 11:40 am

    Btw..I do remember your dad Michael.Though I was young I always felt Ray Scott was a fantastic announcer.Very professional,soothing voice,articulate,Class guy!!! One of the best, if not my favorite announcers as a kid.

    • twinfan1 said, on October 23, 2013 at 12:18 pm

      thanks, kat- and chuck and paul for your kind words about my father..
      note on the contest- i’m sure most have figured out that 7 points is the fewest that can still win the contest as there is not a negative point involved in the scoring and 2 points is the most that anyone can add to their current total. so the contenders are salty, denny, and capon with 9 points; chi and birddog with 8, and chuck and macdog with 7. all have sent in their picks except denny who may be busy in the bath with his blow-up alex smith real boy doll…
      some of you who are out of the running have still sent in picks- and good for you- you don’t get extra draft picks for tanking the contest 😉
      I’ll put up the world series picks before gametime and i’m extending the deadline to send your picks. get them in before first pitch and you’re good.

  14. snarkk said, on October 23, 2013 at 12:27 pm

    The criticism of the Tim re-signing as to amount is off and running in the blogs and radio shows. Yeah, Sabes DID overpay. What else is new? The best explanations I’ve heard as contributors to the overpay, and paraphrasing, are “thank you tax” and “we got no starters ready in the minors” tax. I’d say heavy on the contribution from the latter, especially when heading into the offseason, you’ve got 3 huge holes in a 5 starter rotation…

  15. Alleykat said, on October 23, 2013 at 12:47 pm

    Maybe an overpay Snarkk,by a few million but your talking about a 2 time CY winner,2 A/S games,2 rings and a no-hitter.Pretty glossy resume and he never gets hurt and still gives you 200 innings and K’s a ton.Plus marketing and fan appeal.Giants were wise to resign him.Now get Tanaka and this staff can bounce back strong.

    • snarkk said, on October 23, 2013 at 12:53 pm

      Kat, I’m happy as hell he’s back. The criticism of the overpay is out there, with lots of explanations, probably all have something to do with it. Tim is the fans’ favorite player, he’s made Baer a ton of money over his career, and the Giants are in deep trouble in need of starters. My view is the two year time frame soothes overpay concerns, and the Giants can obviously afford it. Plus, SF is paying him LESS than the previous 2 year deal, as they should based on his performance. They didn’t want him to hit the FA market, and paid for the privilege…

  16. Winder said, on October 23, 2013 at 1:12 pm

    Glad Timmy’s back in the fold, he’s a Giant through and through. History shows that the fastball rarely ever comes all the way back but a little more creativity will some others might be helpful.

  17. snarkk said, on October 23, 2013 at 1:21 pm

    This Tanaka guy looks like the real deal, by written accounts I’ve seen. Throws more strikes than Darvish, not as big an arm as Darvish, but more polished. But, for the Giants, get real, I’d be shocked if they try to get him, unless Burrell promised him a nightly dose of American geishas in exchange for dropping his price. The posting price alone is likely around $60M, add 5 years at $12M or so for the contract, and that’s $120 million for 5 years of service. No way the Giants take on another Zito sized deal for a guy who’s never thrown one pitch in MLB. This guy has RSox or Yanks all over him, or LA…

  18. twinfan1 said, on October 23, 2013 at 1:22 pm

    OK.
    1. he’s presently a 4- and we need a 4- but can obtain one with a better recent track record and have money left over for a good middle relief pitcher and uribe.
    2. we do have viable options for the 5 spot-all of them better than last year’s ‘serviceable’ multimillionaire
    3. even tho goobs willingly agreed to his contract, tim’s deal is a major insult to madbum. if they had any concept of fairness and decency they’d be renegotiating madbum’s deal as we speak. as i said yesterday, he’s not human if he isn’t fuming…
    4. as wswins nailed it- this board would be spitting bricks if they signed a pitcher from outside the organization with tim’s numbers
    5. this is a 35 million hope, not a sound business decision on any level
    6. your ‘thank you tax’ is the best explanation since there’s zero way that a sane person could even ‘pencil’ him in as reliably filling any rotation hole except the 4 or 5. if this was a decision that made any business sense it would been the qualifying offer, 1 year, take it or leave it
    7. ‘SF is paying him LESS than the previous 2 year deal’- that’s a good one. hey- now they can go out and pay zito less than last year. the savings keep rolling in…
    8. the overpay- per year based on the 2 year contract- 15 million.
    9. i do *want* him back. in the same way that one might want to rekindle a past romance- the hope that it will be as it was. and i really do hope that he does get that contract after 2015 that 2012/2013 torched. that’s my hope and for us, that hope doesn’t cost a penny.

  19. snarkk said, on October 23, 2013 at 1:28 pm

    If you have a vibrant minor league system constantly and consistently spitting out quality pitching and position players with no major time gaps, like the Cards, you don’t have a constant need to “overpay” for dubious and declining internal talent like Tim, thus jacking up your payroll. The Giants, like most teams, aren’t in that position…

    • twinfan1 said, on October 23, 2013 at 2:11 pm

      the cards are a great organization. it’s a well known fact , thanks for poiinting it out again, though.
      but your explanation of why the giants had a ‘need’ to overpay tim runs counter to your own oft repeated assertion that they have all the money in the world to go out and get whoever they want. timmy wasn’t signed for any real need other one to mollify the people who long for what will never be. strip away the fuzzy-wuzzy reasons for the signing and it’s not about the need to fill a rotation spot. there have been 86 pitchers who have thrown at least 300 innings over the last two years, tim has the 4th worst era. according to beasball reference, his wins above replacement is 2nd worst. so here’s the bottom line- they could fill TWO rotation spots for 17.5 per year and have change to tip me for the guidance. they had zero ‘need’ to sign tim for anything but pr. it’s the bad sabean who we thought had gone away. or maybe you’ve been right about baer, this does have his fingerprints all over it.

      • snarkk said, on October 23, 2013 at 3:10 pm

        What? Giants management would NEVER do anything personnel related that wasn’t strictly baseball driven….

  20. Chipower9 said, on October 23, 2013 at 2:04 pm

    Bobby Evans was on KNBR yesterday afternoon, and when asked about Tanaka, he did the ol’ two-step, saying basically they would have to see what the posting price/compensation looks like. I agree with snarkk…I think there is a very slim chance that Tanaka rocks the Orange and Black.

    • twinfan1 said, on October 23, 2013 at 2:34 pm

      i think i had about the same numbers as snarrk when i talked about tanaka a couple days ago. with the posting fee and expected contract, i agree they’re unlikely to go after him. but really- why not after what they did for timmy. tanaka is a *realistic* 1 or 2 who they can get for about 2 million more per year than what tim got ( including the prorated posting fee). that’s the guy to overpay. and they don’t have to give up players to get him.

      • snarkk said, on October 23, 2013 at 3:11 pm

        I’d love to see them do it. And, I’d expect Ted Cruz to say he’ll vote for Hillary before the Giants sign Tanaka…

  21. zumiee said, on October 23, 2013 at 3:24 pm

    You tell ’em, typical Cardinal fan: 🙂
    http://politicalhumor.about.com/library/images/blpic-moran.htm

  22. twinfan1 said, on October 23, 2013 at 4:02 pm

    the world series picks are up in new thread.

  23. zumiee said, on October 23, 2013 at 4:02 pm

    Go Red Sox, I guess. Man, what a putrid World Series.

  24. blade3colorado said, on October 23, 2013 at 4:14 pm

    My Bargain Bin Wish List:

    1. Juan Pierre – Go ahead and laugh. However, it was only a season ago that Pierre played in 130 games (with the Phils), 98 starting in left field, Pierre hit .307/.351/.371 with 6 triples and 37 SB. Dude is 36, but didn’t play much with the Marlins last year, so the legs are just fine. This solves our left field dilemma. He also will steal at least 30 bases if allowed to play every day, maybe a lot more. This guy will work 24/7 to be the best he can be. I like that attitude. I see him or Crazy Horse in the lead off position next season. Cost to sign him? Well, he made $1.6 million last year, so it should be about the same cost to us.

    2. Scott Kazmir – Again, go ahead and laugh. However, this dude had 162 SO in 158 innings with the Indians last season. 2005 is a long way from his rookie of the year award season, but last season was a do or die season for Scott and he did fairly well. There’s a lot to like about Kazmir – He’s still young, he’s got strikeout stuff from the left side, and he’s sporting the lowest walk rate of his career. Also, he would be moving to the NL, where I think he could thrive, especially at a pitcher’s park like AT&T.

    Hey, if the Gmen are going to say they are paupers, then these are two of the guys that I would attempt to sign.

    • blade3colorado said, on October 23, 2013 at 4:19 pm

      By the by, Kazmir might win the AL Comeback Player Of The Year award. I hope he doesn’t because that means he will definitely be looking for a very rich multiple year deal (versus a “pedestrian” multi-year deal . . . umm, whatever that means. Ha.).

    • snarkk said, on October 23, 2013 at 4:30 pm

      Juan Pierre? Blade, are you serious?
      I thought we stopped signing position guys that were closer to 40 than 30. Oops, that is, other than Scoots.
      I’m against signing the old guys. Plus, we need some pop. Anywhere we can find it. Especially for LF. I’m afraid the only pop we’d get from JP is a popped ACL or something…

      • blade3colorado said, on October 23, 2013 at 4:42 pm

        Dude rarely gets injured. Maybe Twin is the only one that has said this, but forget about getting anyone who’s on the MLB “A list” for left field. That train left when they signed Pence. Here is another bargain bin player for left . . . Rajai Davis. However, he can’t hit right handers, so he would have to platoon with Blanco.

        The bottom line is that I don’t see Sabes going for anyone well-known (Choo for example). Not because he doesn’t want to, but because the guys in the suits gave him his marching orders already.

      • blade3colorado said, on October 23, 2013 at 4:51 pm

        snarkk, you sent me 2 links to breaking bad. One of them has been gold, so I deleted the other one . . . However, I just came across an episode that I can’t play on this site at http://stream-tv.me/

        What is the name of the other site?


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