Jacoby Ellsbury Signing: This has *Joke* Written all Over it
I think I’ve been too hard on Sabean lately. So I’ll say this: I couldn’t be happier that he’s staying out of the 100-200+ million dollar nonsense that some of these other teams can’t stop themselves from engaging in. Jacoby Ellsbury ain’t worth no 153 million. He just isn’t. If I’m giving that much scratch to a guy he needs to be a franchise player which J-Ell is not.
He needs to be rock solid healthy with no injury history. Um, can’t check that box off either. And I’m not just talking about the games he’s missed up to this point in his career. He sat out almost all of 2010 and more than half the games in 2012. He’s 30, take the number of games he’s missed pre-30 and double or triple that number to guess the number he’ll miss now that he’s aging into his 30’s– remember, players only played consistently deep well into their 30’s during the steroid era. Outside of of David Ortiz (who is likely on them) you just don’t see players *getting better* into their mid/late 30’s.
He would need to be a clubhouse leader. J-Ells is known for keeping to himself and having next to no relationship with his teammates. No thanks, not if it’s my 153 million.
If he’s an outfielder, his game can’t be based almost solely on speed. And outside of his 1-off home run heavy year in 2011, Ellsbury has been all about 2 things: stolen bases and defense. Sorry, I’m not spending 153 million on that. Remember, you get slower as you get older, not faster. I’m surprised Brian Cashman doesn’t know this.
Jacoby Ellsbury is like a poor man’s Carl Crawford who now makes more money than Crawford. It was a hilarious panic move by the Yankees and I can’t wait to watch it blow up in their face.
A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball 
The Yanks crack me up. They apparently balked at signing Beltran for three years but go and sign Ellsbury for seven? With Beltran, you are forced to only use him as a DH for 1-2 years. Ellsbury will probably move to a corner OF spot in the next couple of years, followed by 2 – 3 years of DHing. Not a sound move in my opinion.
Question, would you sign Beltran for two and a third year option? I would, and I doubt Hunter would have any problems moving to left if he had to.
I would do that deal too clown. Beltran gets a lot of grief for supposedly not getting us to the playoffs, but he actually played really well here. Regarding Ellsbury, I couldn’t agree more with Flavor’s thread. This has “Crawford” written all over it, but worse in my opinion. I am praying that ARod wins his case against MLB and isn’t suspended or at worse, suspended for the 50 games everyone else got. Why? Frankly, I can’t stand the MOFO, but I dislike the Yankmees (Thanks Chi!) worse. Would love to see them pay all that coin to these two “accidents waiting to happen.” Ha!
It’s 39 degrees and I am drinking some strong Yuban this morning. Somehow the heat came on. Lousy thermostat. Just say NO to seven year deals. That should be a strong mantra to any GM. Even I get it.
Yuban makes cheap cold ones? Stay warm Nipper.
“,,2-3 years of DHing…” old and injury prone as Yankees are, that’s probably a job you have to stand in line for.
Good one, willied. Made me laugh.
Hilarious line.
Blade, Lee played pretty well last night, finished some tough shots inside 18 pts. 8 boards. Toronto actually outshot Warriors and both teams hit over 50% so not a lot of rebounds out there.
Telling stat tho, kind of like what I mentioned last night about *touches*–Lee only got off 10 shots in 36 minutes.
By contrast Barnes 7-12 in 31 minutes, and O’Neal 4-7 (11 pts.) 8 boards in 23 minutes.
Bogut also got into double figures 5-7 in 25 minutes.
Curry and Thompson are always gonna get theirs, so if others start getting more shots, Lee would seem to be the guy getting fewer of them. Iguodala due back soon too. I love to see Dubs going inside more and attacking the basket, just might not work out as well for amount of time DLee sees the ball, unless he gets it off glass.
Thanks Willie. Conversely, this is why I traded Howard – Per RotoWorld:
“Dwight Howard didn’t block any shots and made just one of his four attempts from the line on Monday, scoring 15 points with nine boards and two assists in 33 minutes.
Advice: The free throws are killing his fantasy stock and he’s not even producing late-round value in the grand scheme of things for standard leagues. Hopefully, his owners are just punting the category. If not, it might not be a bad idea to see if Howard can be dealt for a player with top-50 value.”
Currently in my pro league, Howard is ranked 176 and Lee is ranked 75.
“Alot of contracts are going to raise eyebrows. and cause jaws to drop this winter.And at the end of the day, owners are still going to collect far,far more of baseball’s skyrocketing revenue then the players.
Players contracts have not caught up to television rights deals and a shift toward contract extensions has shrunk the Free Agent pool.
The combination of more money in the game and fewer available players to freely spend it on means more cash for free agents.”
All the more reason to get your farm system and international player development in high gear…
Awesome thread, Flavor. I could not agree more re: the big contracts being thrown around. I like Stix’s post yesterday about his idea of a LFer for the Gigantes. The only thing I would add is that the guy have be a RHer, and have some pull power. I don’t expect Sabes and crew go get a guy who parks 20-30 and drives in 100, but we do need a guy who is serviceable (doesn’t get hurt), plays good D, has some speed, and can hit for average (with occasional flashes of power).
And while many here have been hard on Sabean and crew, and I have preached patience…don’t get me wrong…I am a bit antsy and want to see LF nailed down soon, but I don’t think Sabes makes any significant moves until the winter meetings commence.
In addition to LF (and this is something I spelled out on a couple of past threads)…they really need to upgrade the bullpen (there are a couple of slots open from guys departed), and the bench.
Probably could of made a play for Luke Gregerson for the pen depth Chi.Just sayin.
Just as I got done saying yesterday that it would be good for the Yankees not to sign Cano for those crazy dollars, they go ahead and do this…and I thought he would be a reasonable option for the Giants…woops!
There was talk on mlb channel how Yankees attendance and tv ratings were down last year and that was with Cano playing. So I totally agree this is a panic move thinking this revs up the Red Sox rivalry and drudges up more local interest. But what is probably worse is that they will now do the Cano deal for $200 mill…
GH – Sabean said weeks (months?) ago that those who had received qualifying offers (Ellsbury, Choo, etc.) would NOT be on the Giants radar, as they were unwilling to sacrifice their #1 pick to sign such a player.
I would not bother with Beltran. I dont know, he seems to turn it on in his contract years when he is not injured. We did not get that lucky when he was with us in 2011. I think we need a classic right-handed power hitter for left field that can hit in the 4-hole. I dont think that is going to be the Posey’s best spot in the order and Beltran is the exact opposite of that need.
Let’s see what happens at the winter meetings, but I think getting something on a trade mid-season will also be good enough to get them over the hump next year. Trumbo!!! 🙂
The wished for LFer being described wouldn’t add many more runs scored to the Giants total next year. Gregor Blanco was not nearly the incompetent dog he’s been portrayed as. If you had another Pagan batting 7th or 8th instead of Blanco, it would add about 15 runs to the team’s total, assuming Pagan gives you 50 more OPS points. Gregor’s got about the same career OBP as Ellsbury. Ellsbury’s $100 Napa Cabernet is not nearly the value of Blanco’s $7 Cotes du Rhone. Sabes did well with Blanco.
Yes James.You have to add in Ellsbury’s corkage fee as well.Blanco you save even more with the screw top bottle. 🙂
Yeah, but the Giants just need a left fielder that can hit for average with a nice OBP, hit some bombs and steal bases. That’s not too much to ask is it? I mean those guys are falling out of the sky. I think we’ll end up with a bottom shelf blend…lulz.
Blanco’s bat disappears for long stretches at a time. When he’s near useless at the plate. Even with his speed from the L side of the plate, he can’t/won’t bunt for hits. And, I don’t want my LF to be a guy bunting for hits. SF doesn’t have the crazy run production of the RSox lineup, you need more out of a Giants LFer than a vin blanc of Cote du Rhone Village quality…
Magnus, I enjoy your rants and even your not-so-ranty rants. Well done. Yeah, this out-Crawfords Crawford. Most Yankees watchers say the NYY had no choice; they’ve depleted their farm system. Sound familiar?
James,I like Blanco, too. I’m not saying he’s the answer, but I’m not agreeing he isn’t, either.
Here’s the thing all these discussions (which I studiously avoid) about comparisons via individual stats: in 2010 and 2012, we were greater than the sum of our parts. The Giants won it all by being a team. Yeah, it’s a cliche, and even stats people can jump in and prove precisely what the team strengths were (ahem, pitching/defense/hitting). But I’m a poet, so I eat up the mystical, rah-rah, indefinable, non-quantifiable stuff. This may be a glorious rationalization, a way for me to feel better about our chances. But I do feel a spending orgy is most certainly NOT our path to success. The San Francisco Giants know that, the Cards know that, the Red Sox know that. And they all know how to spell success. P.S. Brian Wilson, fuckme and your Dodgers.
Trumbo K’s way too much and has too crummy a BA to be good middle order guy, and of course would be defensive liability. Angels would want young pitching and I’d imagine more than a Surkamp.
Giants slapped the annoying Gregerson and his porn stache around last year; I think he’s losing it. One of those guys that will be OK for a while but inevitably get lit up as season wears on.
The type of guy Stix described, very optimal, likely doesn’t exist, isn’t available to be traded to SF if he does, and if he had that many tools would cost megabucks. But OK to keep looking!
One for the gals: saw this on top/bottom of license plate on the way to gym today (brrrr! out there in sunny cal).
“Life is short. Buy the shoes.”
GHead…whatever the Giants end up with as LFer…it will NOT be a 4-hole guy/classic RH power hitter. Whoever they get probably hits 7th in the order. I agree with James…you add a guy with stats along the lines of Pagan who is a good defender…that will be more than good. Blanco and (Perez???) can round out the 4th/5th OF spots, and come in for late-inning defense to help preserve a lead.
On a quasi-related topic, it’ll be interesting to see what happens with Puig this year. A lot of pundits assume he’ll get “coached up” in the off-season, but will that actually happen? He was a trainwreck on defense in that last playoff game, and Mattingly’s weary comment after the game about “trying to coach him” said a lot. The guy was NOT coachable during the season, but we’ll see how it pans out with him.
There probably goe smy idea…
•The Angels are unlikely to trade Mark Trumbo, according to jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (on Twitter). The Halos believe that a fair return would be top notch young starting pitching for the slugger and that deal doesn’t exist. The Angels also aren’t sure if they can get a good enough starter in exchange for Howie Kendrick, which could leave them to try and net two starters on the open market with limited money (link).
We defintiely dont have the young starters ready to advance up to the majors…
Well Flav, at least with the Morneau signing I am up to 3 on the free agent contest…pathetic!
I think I’m still at 0. This contest can smoke my pole.
Yup. 0. I’m in 4005th place. Leader has 8. His name is Dan Wood. I bet he’s got serious wood goin’ atop that leaderboard.
I had Hudson going to the Phillies and Nolasco with the Giuants…LOL!
Definitely did not have Ellsbury nor McCann going to the Evil Empire East…
Hey I am actually in 546th place…feeling better now…
Here’s Crick’s stats for the AFL. Hard to judge given the small sample size of just over 15 innings. He didn’t embarrass himself, but it looks like he wasn’t lights out, either. K / BB is over 2, but not that great. I haven’t seen any qualitative assessment in an article, if anybody has a link, please drop one…
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l119&t=p_pbp&pid=605195
This Ellsbury deal really didn’t sink in ’til I figured this is an average of about $22M a year for this little dude. That some ridiculous coin for a 30 year old guy with what he brings to the table. All I can say is that the Yankees must be making a helluva lot of money. If I were 15 and a good athlete, I wouldn’t go near football and concussion land. I’d get my bat and glove and start really working my ass off. Or, start working on the change up. The 25th man will be making $2M a year in the not too distant future…
and he gets hurt all the time…
I really do hope the Smankyees do resign Cano.I’m looking forward to another 5-6 years of A-Rod caliber drama from them once he passes 35 and is either caught taking PED’S or is batting .260/10 and making 30 mil a year.
It will be glorious to watch.
Agreed. The big problem with these idiot Yankee, RSox and now Dodger contracts is that it just raises the salary expectations everywhere, and beer prices. Scott Borassss must be dancing jigs today at his Ellsbury deal, because the price just went way up for average talent. If I’m Brandon Belt, I’m not signing out of my arb years now. I’d take a risk, especially the way the Giants have jacked me around. I’d take the minimum increases all the way to being arb eligible, and then stick it to the Giants in arb. Belt already for 2013 was in the top 10 of MLB first basemen in a bunch of defensive and offensive stats. If he’s smart, he’ll look at how the Giants hosed MadBum, and say no thanks. It might even PO the Giants into trading him, which he probably wouldn’t cry about at all…
Isnt Belt a Super 1 as well? So he should probably get the money he is worth a little more quickly. My worry is what will Panda expect after this year for a new deal?
ghead, I wasn’t aware of this. I just looked and in late October, the league did all the computations, which are kinda convoluted, and awarded Belt his Super 2 status. He’s arb eligible NOW. http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/Super-2-change-makes-Belt-arbitration-eligible-4937727.php
The Giants tendered him a contract (obviously) the other day so that he wouldn’t become a FA. So, even more, were I Belt, I would not sign a LT deal to take out my arb years. I’d go thru the arb process, pick a pretty aggressive one year price, and let the negotiations begin for a one year deal. The Giants NEVER go to arbitration, so I’d set my price high to establish the lower end of the range. I still wouldn’t do a LT deal, I’d go year to year, produce good numbers, and let the market ride. This Ellsbury deal is just nuts, but great for players that actually produce…
ahhh interesting!!!
I has also penciled in $1 mill for Belt this year in estimating 2014 payroll to be about $138 mill with the expected bench and relievers to be added. He might get a couple mill more in his year of arb..so we are probably at $140 mill now without adding a LFer..
Yes agree Snarkk.Belt I’m sure doesn’t gave the same “Hillbilly Agent” that cost Madbum millions.Sabean and Baer did a real time “Deliverance ” on Snot Rocket.
Belt like you mentioned should go year to year.
Yeah, I would go year to year unless the Giants just knocked my socks off with a deal to take out my arb years. But, no way I’d give away the store for “security” like MadBum did. Belt, believe it or not, is in the upper echelon of MLB first basemen NOW. I wouldn’t give that away for chump change in this market. Look at MadBum. A 38-year old Huddy is getting $12M a year. MBum’s deal last year was for 5 years through 2017, taking him out of his last year of minimum salary (2012), his 3 years of arb eligibility (2014-2016), AND his first FA year (2017), PLUS the team has a team option on his 2018 and 2019 years (both at $12M per year). So, MBum is not arb eligible now, as one of the best pitchers in MLB. He gained security in exchange for probably losing AT LEAST $5-7M a year in arbitration and FA the next what, 3 years through 2017? His deal is severely back loaded, too — he only gets $3.75M in 2014. And, the club will pay him in 2018 and 2019 just $12M/year — what they are paying Huddy NOW. That would frost my ass, big time. The 5-year term dollars are bad enough now, but the two-year team option years at $12M per, assuming he’s healthy, is crazy bad. If I had been MBum’s agent, this would not have happened, I guarantee it…
He signed the contract…he obviously was happy with it at the time. And if he has a bitch it is with his agent…NOT the Giants.
To be fair about Bum’s contract, he could probbaly buy half of NC with his contract…
If his agent didn’t have his head up his ass, he could buy it all…
Doubt it. Gaylord Perry wouldn’t give up his coastal property. Wait? I think Bozo said that’s exactly what he did. Hmm.
“no way I’d give away the store for “security” like MadBum did.”
Well, it’s easy to say that, but tougher in reality, IMO. 5 years/$35 million is financial security with no need for quotation marks. As a young man in his early 20s, he took the opportunity to set his family up financially for several generations, and he gets called a “hick” for doing it. I don’t really get that.
Sure, if he stays healthy, he could have made more than that. He took the bird in the hand. I can’t fault him for that. Plus, if he stays healthy and really good at pitching, he’s going to eventually make a bazillion more dollars anyway.
zum, he took the bird in the hand Sabes gave him, and the bird crapped in it…
Again…no one forced him to sign the fucking contract. Quit painting the Giants out to be the bad guys here. If Bum has any problems with the deal, it should be with his agent, and then he should look in the mirror and ask himself “WTF was I thinking.” I agree with Zumiee here…he saw an opportunity for security here, knowing he was, in the long run, probably leaving money on the table. Hell…we don’t know…he may still be happier’n a pig in shit with the deal.
Hey, the Giants aren’t the bad guys. They did what they could get away with. That’s good bidness, I suppose. But, down the road, they may have an unhappy player, and if so, that’s not good bidness. I will and have painted the Giants as the bad guys with respect to Belt. So, I hope he squeezes their ass for all he can get…
Chi , but will Madbum be as happier then the body builder directing traffic?
A CDR Village, I’d take in a second, Snarkk — not a Gigiondas or even a Sablet, but we’re definitely talking at least $10.99, and, in a good vintage (which is almost every year now in the Southern Rhone), an almost certain bet to satisfy.
Many others disappear for stretches like Blanco, including Pagan. Such is the random nature of stats over 162 games shared among 25 players, that it makes no difference when you hit and when you don’t in terms of your contribution to the team. Your totals are all that should be used to judge your worth. It’s not a poetry killer, either.
I also don’t care where the offense comes from, as long as there’s enough of it relative to the pitching.
My problem with Blanco’s hitting is the same as Crawford. Their swing is too big and uppercut; they hit too many fly balls, and strike out too much. They hit a few homers, so fans get jazzed about that, and the broadcasters, too; but we need less HR swings from them, and more linedrives.
Yes, if they could make those kind of adjustments, that would probably make them good instead of ok players.
I dunno, James. How many platoon players in MLB go something like 6 for 66 over a two month stretch? Your defense better be pretty damn good to keep yourself around when you hit worse than a pitcher for two months at a time…
And his stats at the end of the season were ok. That’s how I’d judge what he brings to the team this year. A 102 OPS+ is a 102 OPS+.
I disagree. IMO a player who is consistent throughout the year and keeps the lineup together is worth more than a guy who disappears for two months (Blanco did a similar thing in 2012), then has a white hot period to even out the season’s stats…
Shit. look at Pence. He sat on 70 RBIs for about a month .5, then jacked 28 in like 2 weeks. They ALL fucking disappeared at different times. Posey for 3 months, for God’s sake. And yeah, Blanco is infuriating. With his speed, he could hit grounders to the left side and get on base.
James James James James James. Statistically, Posey had a decent year. But when you look at the splits, his 2nd half was an abject failure. THAT matters.
Stats and streakiness vs. clutchiness. 🙂 Last night, Isaiah Thomas scored 20 points in the 4th Quarter, and I STILL didn’t want him taking the last shot. He missed, and the Kings lost by 2 points.
So help me understand something: the giants decline Voggy’s option for 6.5 mil. When it was reported he was re-signing with the Giants it was 3 mil plus incentives. Now we find out it’s 5 mil guaranteed with incentives that could run to 7.5 mil.
#whatthefuck
Fister is set to earn how much in 2014? $7 million…
Oh, and he gets to pocket the 300k buyout of the original deal. Man, the Giants sure are nice, aren’t they? Imagine what kind of deal he woulda gotten had he pitched well last year?
I just arrived in the SF bay area (Sunnyvale). One of the weirdest trips ever . . . We (Jeremy and I) had almost a foot of snow to navigate on the way to the Denver airport. Jeremy grew up in Colorado, so this was really no problemo . . . Most people that live in Colorado are from other states (primarily Texas and California). Consequently, they are complete idiots when a couple of inches of snow hit the ground. My snow driving skills compared to Jeremy puts me on the cusp of that imbecilic category. 🙂
So, we get to the airport on time and after saying my good byes to Jeremy, I get in the TSA security line. Chi, Ewisco, Chuck, and maybe a couple of you other Flappers are familiar with the Denver Airport drill. One of the worst in my opinion . . . Not today though. If going through Security took me more than 2 minutes, then I am LYING. Seriously, the lines were long as usual. However, for whatever reason, my boarding pass was marked with something called “Pre-approved TSA;” and coupled with a digital screen they call the “Randomizer,” which tells you to either go left or right, after you give it a fingerprint. Mine said go right and I almost felt like a celebrity as I breeze through the first part of the security review (them checking my license and boarding pass) and then I proceed to the conveyor belt and begin to do the shoe removal drill. “Excuse me sir, no need to take off your shoes.” Hmm, ok, I thought to myself . . . I start removing my jacket. Again, “Sir, no need to do that. You can also keep your watch on, as well as your wallet in your pocket.”
WOW!
Like I said, it must have taken 2 minutes flat to go through security. No crotch search, no wallet removal, and no removal of shoes, belt, coat, etc. Shit, I thought I was in the “Wayback Machine” with Sherman and Mr. Peabody and we planted our asses in the 1990s. Anywho, the flight left on time and we arrived in sunny California . . . Umm, yes sunny, but still cold. Brrrrrrrr . . . Actually, cold is a relative term – since it was zero degrees or there about in Colorado. Quite balmy here. Thank you.
Addendum . . . I just did a google search about this “TSA Pre-Approval” program and lo and behold, it just started today. Lucky me. Anyone who flies a lot like I do, should go to this website . . . I had the stamp on my boarding pass, but if not for the sharp security officer spotting it, I would have been directed toward the rest of the herd of peons.
http://www.tsa.gov/tsa-precheck/notification-tsa-precheck-eligibility
Were you wearing the Giants sombrero?…
No. However, I did have on the Flap shirt.
I’m a big Kap fan, love him despite his struggles this year. But for him to say he didn’t watch the Monday night game is just youthful ignorance. He’s preparing to play the biggest game of the season on Sun and he skipped watching the game of the team he’s going to play in 6 days? Come on, man. that’s weak sauce. I don’t care if he sees the film this week in practice, to skip watching the actual game is a joke and bush league, in my opinion.
Chuck, the fact that Posey had a lousy second half does matter. It meant that he had pretty good numbers instead of great ones for the season, which did hurt the team. What I am saying is that if he had put together a season where he had a steady 820 OPS in every month from April through September, the Giants would have been no better off at the end of the year. The same is true of Blanco and his 690 OPS. And of every other player on the team.
Blade, the TSA was piloting that program for a while. I was a beneficiary a couple of times, much to my delight. Annoying, though, when Mrs. James got the special treatment and I didn’t.
Why does a spiked average / OPS = same effectiveness as a consistent average / OPS?…
Right now and as the winter progresses the 5 years and $90 mil that the Giants paid to sign Hunter is looking bargain basement. While we do need a leftfielder the number of years that are being doled out are ridiculous. I don’t mind paying out on a 5 and 6 year contract but anything beyond that is silly.