Tim Lincecum
The Giants gave Tim Lincecum 35 million this off season and were derided by many. I wasn’t one of the *deriders*. I happen to think Timmy is going to be very good in ’14/’15. His lost velocity is well documented but you don’t need velocity to pitch well. And he’s on record as saying he’s taking a new approach to pitching now and how he had been stubborn about trying to re-capture his lost mph’s. Plus, everyone thinks Tim Hudson will be a great mentor for him now that they’re on the same team.
The thing Lincecum needs to figure out is how to stay out of the big inning. His W/L splits are ridiculous.
Last year:
wins: 1.64 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .155BAA, .505OPS
Losses: 6.53 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, .306 BAA, .844 OPS
If you remembered Lincecum having rough starts to his outings, you aren’t imagining that. In terms of OPS, he improved as the game wore on.
pitch 1-15: .732
pitch 16-30: .755
pitch 31-45: .571
pitch 46-60: .582
pitch 61-75: .568
pitch 76-90: .724
pitch 91-105: .534
pitch 106-120: .542
He has to figure out that first inning and that random inning that usually pops up around the 5th or so. The bleeding starts and he can’t figure out how to stop it. And it’s not that he’s tired, if he makes it out of that one bad inning and gets a chance to come back in the next inning, he’s usually lights out (as the OPS chart above shows).
His K rate remained outstanding and his xFIP was once again far below his actual ERA suggesting that he didn’t have as bad of a year as it looked on the surface. We’ve got him for another 2 years. Would you rather have Timmy for 2 or Bronson Arroyo for 2? I don’t think there’s a reason to even slap up a poll to find out that answer.
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BF, the question the stats raise is “Just how different are they from other poorly performing starters?” The “if only he avoided the one big inning” lament is trotted out a lot. The xFIP is something to hold on to. As for Arroyo, I think the preference you and others voiced earlier was a swap out for Vogelsong.
A better question would be who would you rather have, Arroyo for the next 2 years or Huddy? I’d prefer Huddy
Timmy had a big xFIP difference 2 years ago but his ERA still sucked last year. Hoping the 2013 xFIP is a precursor to a lower 2014 ERA. What do u think Timmy’s 2014 era is going to be?
My intuition is that he drops the ERA into the high 3’s, but his xFIP goes up 🙂
Pretty soon, I’ll probably need to take a pill for my xFIP to go up…
I was one who was was kicking around Arroyo (and lamenting that the Giants were not more aggessive at signing him at 2 for 22). And my thoughts were swapping him and Vogey (Hudson stays in the mix). So the rotation would have been Cain, MadBum, Hudson, Tim, and Arroyo. Seriously, 22 mil over 2 years is chump change in today’s world. So, the net would have been about an additional 15 mil in payroll this year (subtract Vogey’s 5 mil).
Exactly. Charles Johnson is worth $4 billion, and we’re talking about an extra $15 million in an organization worth $1 billion. The Dodgers now are handing out $15 million to the Dodger Dog vendors…
Avoid the big inning? Pitch count 76-90 to be avoided? This could be a Bubbles Zito post from 7 years ago.
The difference is that Zito would get knocked out in that inning. Timmy rebounded the next inning. At least, sometimes he did
Fair enough. Lincecum has, for the most part, been able to keep Bochy’s trust allowing him to stay in games. If he stumbles out of the gate this year I wonder how long that will last. Don’t get me wrong. I am okay with the deal. I hold out hope that Lincecum gets it together. I think he will.
We’ll have to see about TL–he’s in a good spot re ATT and coaching staff. He’s been hit a lot harder last 2 yrs. than ever before by guys other than Goldschmidt, which seems to be more about command and control of fastball. All the coaching and mentorship in the world is fine, but ultimately he’s the one with the ball in his hands. Like to see him lop at least half a run off the ERA.
Had to laugh at this quote from Dan Haren about signing with hometown (he’s in OC) Dodgers: “It was really about being close to home and being on a championship club.”
Huh? What championship has LA won in last 25 yrs? Maybe he needs a close up of those 2 rings on Flap sideboard.
I am cautiously optimistic with Tim this year, and agree with you Craig that Tim H. could have a big impact on Lincecum as a mentor, etc.
Beats Brad Penny anyway . . .
There was a time when many were wanting Penny over MadBum for 2010 ( on the Splash. Maybe a few here. I don’t recall.)
I’d take Timmy over Arroyo every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Arroyo is what old time boxing fans used to call a tomato can. Watching Tim’s continuing transition from a pure power pitcher to more of a command guy, for lack of a better term, will be one of the more interesting subplots of this season. I’m getting pumped for some baseball.
I don’t think many here were saying swap Arroyo for Timmy (or even Tim Hudson). I (and again, I think most) were saying they should have signed Arroyo instead of Vogey.
I don’t know. I would have liked Bronson Arroyo on our staff. Not to be underestimated are his fielding and hitting.
At least some part of those big innings, from what i remember seeing, was the defense. Again, not so much the pure error as an out or play that should have been made that wasn’t and then everything snowballing from there. That just killed them last year and since they weren’t “errors”, the effect is impossible to quantify. Anyone watching though, saw the impact and it seemed like it happened all year.
I agree…shit like missing the cut-off and hence, allowing a run to score. It is scored an earned run because there was not an “error.”
And the pen which failed numerous times to hold the line.
Les, I had forgotten about that. It seemed like every inherited runner scored. Not sure if there is a stat for that which someone like James could check but it sure seemed that way.
Then again, there’s this view, to support the data-driven perspectives of Twin, James, and others:
“It could be chemistry, but usually it’s just math.”
Alessandra Stanley, writing in The New York Times
On the topic of not signing Arroyo (and signing Vogey instead). So, the Giants cannot pony up 22 mil over two years, but Charles Johnson, the Giants big fish, drops 250 mil in plilantropy. Here is an excerpt from an article in today’s “Chronicle” on philantropy.
“Fifteen of this year’s top 50 donors live in California, collectively contributing $2.8 billion. Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan, topped the donor chart with their $992 million in charitable gifts. No. 2 was Charles Johnson, a principal owner of the San Francisco Giants, who dropped $250 million.”
I am all for donating money to help just causes, but I think the Giants winning another World Series in 2014 is a just fucking cause. Come on CJ…pony up some coin for the Orange and Black.
I just emailed a digital version of ROUNDING THIRD to Larry Baer. I have doubts whether he will ever see it, but he may. I contacted his assistant and she said go for it. This is the same very cooperative woman who said she would not put it past Mr. Baer to visit us in our seats at the Flapalooza. Hey, maybe he came down but we were all standing there in our orange sombreros looking like 28,945 other fans.
After much internal debate, the most desirable (and doable) rotation would be MadBum, Cain, Jimenez, Kazmir, and competition for the 5.IMO.
I have a new post on my blog- the time honored manager’s revenge- “Flipping the spread”
http://zekesplace.wordpress.com/2014/02/10/flipping-the-spread/
The future of the Clubhouse Spread?
Twin, as u know Jimenez wanted 4-5 yrs, and they would have lost their draft pick. Giants obviously not the only ones who balked.
Now you might get Baldo for a lot less as the market is soft on him.
Too much of a head case, IMO. Time will tell.
I know the details, but they would still have had 1 spot available in 2015 and 1 for 2016. And the draft pick is a non-issue if Jimenez is back- and his numbers in the second half of last year suggest that he’s “more back” than Timmy. Your host also wanted him.
Nice to see you. I won’t be debating my posts anymore than I have this one. One reply and I’m done with it. And a cheer erupts from the forum!
BTW, it’s quite friendly over at Zeke’s joint, more of you might consider a visit. Or not…
From what I read, if not Voggie, it would have been another cheapie. Sabean said they already stretched the budget a bit. However, additional $$ are avail for deadline pick-ups should they be in contention. And that won’t hinge so much on who the 5 is.
As I posted a couple or few or many days ago- I would have offered Vogelsong 2 mill and incentives if he made the club. He’d have an opt out if he didn’t make it. The 5th spot would be Petit’s to lose. As to my “Timmy Take”- one year, at 14+ (whatever the qualifying number was, take it or leave it )
As to my perspective on chemistry: ” it could be chemistry… or voodoo “
I think you broke the seal with this one Flavor.
From MLB T Rumors…
The Diamondbacks’ signing of Bronson Arroyo was a mistake, ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider-only). Law argues that Arroyo’s declining velocity, tendency to give up homers, and struggles with lefties all make him a bad bet for two years and $23.5MM. Arroyo allowed 32 homers last season (although 19 of them were in the Reds’ homer-friendly ballpark), and lefties hit .295/.327/.529 against him. He’s also had an average fastball velocity of about 87 MPH the past several seasons, which Law suggests has been one cause of his home-run problems.
Arroyo is a fly ball guy, he obviously is better suited to ATT than to the Dbacks’ bandbox. They’re certainly aware of that in Phoenix, but bit the bullet anyway. James can probably convert Arroyo’s HR performance in Cincy to a projected performance for the Giants. 19 at Cincy probably means something like 12 or 13 at ATT? So maybe 25 overall for the year if he were with the Giants? That’s not horrible. Cain gave up 23 last season…
Seems like collectively the Flappers have pretty much nailed it on Timmy. Bad defense leading to big innings: Check. No Fireman, but rag-tag middle relievers throwing gasoline on the flaring coals: Check. Loss of FB velocity: Check. Also some positive aspects brought out: Intent to remake his style from power to semi-finesse hurler: Check. Good influence from Hudson: Check.
My amplified take on all these negative and positive factors begins with Lincecum’s personal pride. As the two-time Cy winner and face of the franchise in the ’10 Market Street Parade #55 is gonna have huge motivation to get back on track from his last two disastrous seasons. Way i see it too, is that Giants defense will pick it up this time and tighten up considerably behind Timmy.
Missing so far is any determination on the part of Bochy, Righetti and Gardner to focus on the fireman concept which was long proven as key to getting out of potentially blowup innings relatively early in the game. There are two internal candidates for this role: Youngsters Hembree and Law. Hoping the on-field brass will see the reasoning behind the critically important role of Fireman.
Overall take is that Lincecum will make a partial rebound this year with an ERA ranging between 3.45 and 3.82. With tightened up defense and an improved offense behind him, Timmy’s W-L record could log in at something in the neighborhood of 13-9. Given a shut-down fireman who obviates the possibility of an exploding inning, we could see a general resurrection of #55.
I think there’s a certain something to the “hunger” factor; players that are super hungry for their first ring. Always nice to have some of those in the mix. Maybe Hudson helps provide that this season. Another hunger factor could be all the press the Dodgers are getting, and the Giants taking that as a challenge, to be atop the division again.
Wish Michael Sam all the best. Tough situation.
Well, there was this game from last season:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN201307220.shtml
The hope is to get back to having a lights-out bullpen; that will help Lincecum and all the other starters.
The bullpen will be Romo, Casilla, Affeldt, Lopez, and then…..
three out of these guys:
Petit
Machi
Kontos
Law
Hembree
Huff
and anyone else I’m not thinking of.
Getting back to defense, this is a big issue with Timmy and his future success. He has to get better at keeping runners in check and not running wild on him. With his not-so-fast fastball, his veolcity can no longer make up for his less-than-quick move to the plate.
When shit goes south with him, having runners scoot into scoring position at will makes his struggles all the more worse. Where a grounder would normally only advance a runner fron 1st to second, these guys score because they’ve already stolen a couple bases to get in a position to score.
Yep, I’ve ripped Tim ad nauseum for his brainless holding of runners. He can’t get away with that anymore. Hopefully, Rags will work heavily with him on that this Spring. He’s very athletic. With Buster catching, and having a good arm, there is absolutely no reason at all Tim shouldn’t have a good move to first, use it smartly, and be attentive enough to keep guys honest at second…
He doesn’t care much about holding runners because he thinks it will affect his stuff and focus on the batter .He’s probably right. But the results would probably be about the same either way.
IMO
Well, for whatever reason he’s ignored or purposefully not engaged in keeping runners on, try the other approach. If the results are the same, at least he gave it a shot…
I’m not saying what I think he should do, just what I believe his thinking to be. But sure, give it a go, Timmy.
One of your better threads, BF. Great breakdowns. The early inning woes for Tim we’ve seen really show in these stats. Since the Giants must be aware of this, what different approach are they going to do for Tim? More pre-game warm up? Less warm-up (his warm up is already very short). Different type of warm up and pen pitching approach? Whatever it is, he’s been horrible early, can’t find the zone, gets cuffed around, and that sets a bad tone for the whole game. They have to figure out how to get him in a groove early…
When he came out of the pen, he usually took 6 warmups and was ready to go. Not sure how effective that would be as a starter, but I have nooooooooooo idea.
I specifically watched Tim in his pregame warmup on the field last season when I went to a game with the Snarkkettes. We grabbed some seats about 10 rows up from the Pen mound, just to watch him. Don’t know what he does in the clubhouse before this. He comes out onto the field, does a bunch of leg, arm, torso stretching on the grass for maybe 5 minutes. A short jog in a line back and forth a few times, some running in place high stepping — real brief. Talking to Gardy or whoever while doing this. Then windmills the arms some. Onto the Pen mound a few steps below the rubber. A few fairly hard “soft” tosses to Hector to get started. Then right onto the rubber, makes maybe 20 pitches (probably fewer) increasing in effort. Talks to Gardy in between a few, but not much said. Done. Maybe 15 minutes total warmup on the field/Pen mound. Ready to go. In that game, Tim was not very good — I think they pulled him in the 5th or something, Giants were down by 4 or 5 runs, lost it, I don’t even remember who they played. The contrast to Zito’s warmup is stark. Zito is out there maybe 50 minutes before game time, runs sprints, fairly extended set of long tosses, all sorts of stretching and rigamaroll, then LOTS of pitches off the Pen mound. Ask blade, he was there with me for a Zito game and we watched it — no disrespect intended, but it was a Bataan Death March of warmups. Then Zito went out and threw something like 90 pitches the first 3 innings — horrendous…
If there was one guy who could come back and pitch at a high level throwing 85, it would be Johan Santana. He’s been bought out and said to be progressing nicely from his latest surgery. If he’d take a minor league deal with incentives, I’d jump on it.
Others of varying degrees of interest: Drew (don’t ask) , Morales (don’t ask),Kevin Gregg,
You can add up all the coaching, good cutoff throws, better bullpen etc., and it won’t mean a whole lot unless Lincecum has the innate ability to develop much better command. If you want to find a quantitative measure that partially excuses Timmy’s performance, xFIP seems to capture the effect of any external factors pretty well. Of course, a 3.7 ERA is still below average for a Giants starter, and it certainly is not a particular value for the $$.
Let’s hope Law is right about Arroyo, but he’s always been tagged for lots of HRs and lefties have feasted on him his entire career.
James, per wswin, Arroyo apparently gave up 32 HRs last season, 19 of ’em at Cincy. What would that convert to if he threw for the Giants with half his starts at ATT?…
Subtract Belt’s HR total from Freddie Freeman’s and then subtract the difference from 32 :-).
Ah, the FB- metric. Thanks! 😉
Correct me if I’m wrong here (as if) but Timmy seemed to lose his command trying to overthrow his fast ball. It always went up and in. If he can get out of that mindset, I think he spots the rest of his pitches well enough to curtail the wildness.
Snarkk, I guess that’s the yin and yang of pregame warmups. I’ve seen Timmy a couple times down near the Giants bullpen (this was like 2008/2009 IIRC. Molina was still there. My daughter took about 250 pics of Timmy!), and that was his routine. Stretch, 8-10 tosses in front of the mound, then full speed off the mound for another 10-12. Very quick.
Yeah, that’s quicker than when we saw him this past season. Still, the one we saw was pretty quick for a starter. I have no clue what he does before in the clubhouse, if anything, or in the cage area underneath. I assume he still does not ice down after a start. But, somebody can tell me if that’s not the case…
Yeah, somewhere along the line I saw a Zito start and was floored by his long tosses across the entire OF, from foul pole to foul pole. I think he got pulled in the 4th.
The fundamental thing that clearly gets me a bit excited about the Giants this season is that Zito is gone. The hanging Sword of Zitocles has been removed from over the head of the team…
For some reason,I can’t see Zito with his weak ass arm throwing Foul pole to Foul Pole Chuck.
He couldn’t throw 60’6 inches most of the time.
I didn’t see him throw pole to pole. But, I’d go with Chuck’s remembrance. I did see Zito throw long toss from the LF foul line out to dead center. He threw a ton of that long toss before he even went to the Pen mound to “warm up”, then threw a ton of pitches there. To me, it was no wonder the guy had nothing in the game, he pitched 6 innings equivalent in the warm ups…
Again, this was around 2008-09 so maybe Zito lightened up on the long toss, but he did that for about 10 minutes before his start. I was floored.
The distance on a line between two 310′ foul poles is about 440 feet. I don’t think Barry was quite capable of that even when he was still hitting 88-89 mph on the radar gun for Oakland.
Some one who throws mid 80s can still toss a baseball a long ways, though.
Zits threw it 100 feet, then Nate took over 😉
Anyone know if Tim’s grown his hair back?
I saw pics from FanFest. Pretty short…
Looks like last year.
Big Time Timmy Jim is going to have very good year as long as he gets reasonable run support. I am predicting he will end the year around 15-7.
Reblogged this on THE LIGHTER SIDE OF SPORTS and commented:
I am pleased to re blog this pro-Timmy post. It is refreshing but unfortunatly rare for a “sports blogger” to write in support of the re-signing of Tim Lincecum. I feel that he is more than just an important part of the San Francisco Giants, he is the heart as Matt Cain is the soul. I hope to see them both finish out their pro ball days on my forever passion, my SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS!
Couldn’t agree more Momma, last thing the flap needs to worry about is Tim who still is up their among the leaders in K’s every year with decreased velocity.You mentioned “Heart&Soul” and that is so true,read once a few years back,that 1 GM probably others said,they would easily have Tim to build around their franchise he has that much determation and fire,with a fantastic club house presence.
Thank you for your comment. Timmy has proved that he will do what he needs to help the team. No prim a-dona he is a SF Giant to the core! 🙂
3 days
until pitches and catchers report for YOUR San Francisco….GIANTS!
First workout Feb. 15th. Position players report Feb. 18th with first full squad workout on Feb. 19th.
First ST game Feb. 26th against the A’s.
26 days until my daughter and I catch our first ST game.
Bring it on…
Damm right Chi,”Bring it On!”
Your daughter& you “Rockin ST” again!
Have many 🍻 for me!
Orange&Black and don’t look back!!!
How many squares can Chuck handle?
Well, Kat wants me to have many squares for him. By the way…WTF are squares? I know the term “gangster squares.”
If you mean cocktails or brews, Kat…NP…you got it!
One of my first stops after getting checked-in to the hotel will be a place called “R&R” where they serve a bad ass bloody mary with a crisp slice of bacon in it! Oh hell yes!
And we may decide to head straight to the yard (our flight lands around noon) and catch the game on the 8th (against the Mariners) A friend of mine will be down there and that is his last game.
My daughter texted me this morn about the date creeping up on us. I cannot wait!
I finally watched “42.” Good movie, but I still couldn’t bring myself to root for the Dodgers.
My exact sentiments when I watched the movie.
I only saw the first half of the movie (something came up at home and I didn’t get to finish it). I really enjoyed it. I get your “couldn’t root for Dodgers” comment but it was an issue that never came up for me (at least for the first half I watched). It was a pretty incredible reminder of how few years we are separated from segregation in this country.
Man have you guys seen Bob Costas with the Pink Eye going on?
Dude needs to ketch a “Red Eye” flight out of Russia right now!
Or maybe order some pinkies, or Red Rye
In his case, it’s “Smug eye”…