How Hard is it to Ever Play in the Major Leagues?
Among others, Joe Panik, Gary Brown and Angel Villalona just got sent down. I was a little surprised that they didn’t give Panik more of a look but when you think about the Giants and their near utter failure to develop mlb position players, it’s not that surprising. Brown is a complete lost pick and Villalona is never, EVER going to do anything other than be famous for beating a murder rap back home. His bat is slow, so is he, it’s anybody’s guess why they still have this dude on the 40 man roster…..
The Giants pathetic position player development got me to wondering about the league averages with all teams and how often a player drafted, who signs, makes it to the big leagues at some point in their career.
According to a Bleacher Report article I read (huge, huge disclaimer being thrown out there since this is the extent of my research for this thread), 66% of first round draft picks make the major leagues at some point. That number isn’t a surprise one way or the other. Maybe sounded a little high to me.
Second round draftees reach mlb 49% of the time.
There’s a significant dropping point for rounds 3-5 with only 32% of those players ever making The Show.
Rounds 6-10 see 20%.
Rounds 11-20 is 11%.
The chances of a player reaching the majors from round 21 onward is a dismal 7%.
Just taking a look at the Giants drafts since 2006 when they started actually giving a shit about the draft, I’m not sure if our numbers line up with the major league averages. I don’t feel like sorting out the non-signings from the 50 picks drafted to figure out the % of players who have made it to the big leagues. But here is some preliminary research. If you want to dig deeper, go for it. Keep in mind, the draft was always 50 rounds until the new collective bargaining agreement and now the draft is 40 rounds.
In 2005 they didn’t have a draft pick till round 3 when they took the (low)esteemed Benjamin Copeland. That was the same draft they took Minicozzi in the 17th round. Sergio Romo got drafted 28. Thomas Neal was 36 but I don’t think he has ever appeared in the major leagues. That’s it for 50 rounds.
In 2006 they started off with a bang nabbing Timmy. Burriss was 2, Rohlinger and Pill went 6/7. Bigcock 9. Nobody else out of their 50 picks, at least in my quick scan of the list, has made it to The Show (yet).
In 2007, we again started off with a winner (MadBum). Tim Alderson was next but while we did flip him for Freddy Sanchez he’s never thrown a pitch in the major leagues. Noonan and Culberson went next and while they are worthless, they still count as “mlb hits” of players who have made it to the big leagues. Runzler was 9, Edelfsen was 16, Otero was 21. Jonny Monell went 30. Nuthin’ else.
In 2008, we drafted G-Dizzle (Posey), followed by Gillespe, Kieshnick and Crawford. That’s a pretty solid first 4 if you’re just talking about guys to make the major leagues. And Surkamp was 6. Juan Perez was 13. Nobody else though.
I’ll look at 2009 last since drafts after that are filled with lots of guys who are still developing now. Zach Wheeler went #1. Tommy Joseph 2 (he hasn’t made it I don’t think but we did trade him for Pence). Belt 5. So far, nobody else.
I know I said I was done, but 2010 was Gary Brown in the first round. I suspect he’s going to be minor league roster filler forever and that sucks since he was a first round pick. Hembree was 5.
2011 was Panik who sucks but they followed that up with Crick who is the best prospect in our system.
2012 was Chris Stratton and I haven’t checked recently but is he even pitching?
2013 was Christian Arroyo and Ryder Jones, two dudes we won’t know about for 3+ years…….
Hey, the mlb draft is kinda a crapshoot, we all know that. Still, when given 50 picks, we have proven nearly incompetent (especiually at hitting on position players). From 2006 through 2009 we had 200 draft picks (not sure how many didn’t sign). And the *hits* listed above are few and far between……
and now for something fun. Here’s what Timmy looked like today. Must have a gay porn set to hit after the game. I kid, I kid….
A side note— I’ve been preoccupied with some other stuff this Winter, life shit, normally the BBOTD and the BBOTD-POTD is one of my primary focused points in the winter solstice. Secretly, for me, it’s my favorite part of the blog—off season. I dropped the ball this year a little bit but I promise to double up next year. I re-set the last chick to the new chick tonight. And to make up for my slackardness, I might just keep this widget going all year. We’ll see, it’ll depend mostly on all of your rad captions. But Snarkk, Unca, Pawlie, DJ Loo, Dirt, Bozo, MacDog, WillieD, E-wisco, Chi, Zummie, and whoever else I’ve missed….you guys produce more gold in a BBOTD caption than is produced in an entire year at any place that, you know, *produces gold*.
Keep that golden shit coming…….