A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball

Looking at WAR Unlike The Way Bill James Might Look at It

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on June 25, 2014

WAR is one of those stats I observe but don’t really use to evaluate a player. For starters, it factors in defense and that’s not really on my radar when it comes to building daily fantasy teams. Secondly, I don’t understand how to calculate it and that’s another reason I’m probably cooled to it. Thirdly, what I do know about it I don’t like since I think it emphasizes defense too heavily and I think the sabermetric community has a LONG way to go when it comes to perfecting defensive metrics.

As I drove into work this morning, I was thinking about Pagan and his obvious impact on the team (both when he plays and when he doesn’t). Is there a player out there who defines “replacement player” better than Gregor Blanco? I decided to look up their WAR numbers and see how they compare. For those of you who know nothing about WAR, consider this: The WAR number tries to quantify how many wins a player is worth to his team when compared to a replacement player (ie, someone from the bench or the minor leagues).

In 2013, Blanco’s WAR was 2.8. Pagan’s was 1.3. In 2014, Blanco’s WAR is 0.4, Pagan’s in 1.7.

And then I looked at the wild splits the Giants have the last 2 years with Pagan in the line up and without him in the line up. And that’s actually a lie, I didn’t look it up. But I know the Giants are like 20 games over .500 with him in the LU, and significantly under .500 when he’s not in the line up.

So I’m gonna take the liberty and adjust Pagan’s WAR from it’s current 1.7 and bump it up to like 40.6. Sound good?

Imagine if the great WAR machine Mike Trout went down and he was replaced by a healthy Angel Pagan. Would that team go into the tank?

Just another way to look at it.

________________

I changed out the BBOTD again. Dumpy only had so many wins in that ass. I went a little sideways with the current pic–kinda like how it feels this season is going………

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  1. Chipower9 said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:26 pm

    Flappers…I will not lie…that one made me all misty-eyed!

    • pawliekokonuts said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:31 pm

      me too…chills, like last year’s

  2. wswins said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:26 pm

    how the fuck about that…may it get them back on the way

  3. WilcoJoe said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:29 pm

    Dirt was there? Sweet! Congrats to Timmy and Dirt!

  4. Bozo said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:30 pm

    Keep Tim out of the stretch and we’re good to go.

  5. pawliekokonuts said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:30 pm

    FUCKYEAH. tears.

    • Chipower9 said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:40 pm

      Yeah, I have teared-up a couple of times, Pawlie…so happy for Timmy. And he helped get our boys off the schnide and kept them from getting swept.

  6. WilcoJoe said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:30 pm

    Only one other pitcher has no hit the same team twice? Impressive!

    • WilcoJoe said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:35 pm

      And it was last done over a hundred years ago.

  7. Manny said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:31 pm

    How about that little guy, I lost track of him having a no hitter until about the 7th inning. Hopefully that gets the team back on the rails again like wswins commented.

  8. blade3colorado said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:36 pm

    Kid at 2nd was cool, calm and collected on the last out. Impressed with his poise.

  9. Chipower9 said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:41 pm

    As the illustrious James Brown said “Get on the Good Foot!”

    LET’S ROLL!

  10. UncaChucks NinerPage said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:42 pm

    So Timmy has 2 WS rings, 2 Cy Youngs, and now 2 no-no’s.

    Yeah, baby!!

    • Flavor said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:47 pm

      POTD when I get home

      • DJLoo said, on June 25, 2014 at 4:03 pm

        Fuck, no!! It doesn’t even rhyme!!!

    • pawliekokonuts said, on June 25, 2014 at 4:51 pm

      only ever done by Koufax before, I believe

  11. UncaChucks NinerPage said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:44 pm

    Yup. Time to turn this btch around and get on a roll . . .

  12. Irish Kevin said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:57 pm

    What a great day for Tim, have to wonder how he shut them down but Cain and Huddy could not??? Timmy had the magic working today

  13. DJLoo said, on June 25, 2014 at 3:57 pm

    I hope he wasn’t injured by the Gatorade bath. He ditched Amy and ran to the locker room.

  14. DJLoo said, on June 25, 2014 at 4:05 pm

    Duval has provided quite a spark…

    • salty said, on June 25, 2014 at 4:28 pm

      That gets my vote for POTD.

    • Flavor said, on June 25, 2014 at 4:35 pm

      Epic

  15. stickman said, on June 25, 2014 at 4:07 pm

    WOWWW! Whoda thunk it. Guess you never know with #55. Hudson’s stopper routine shut down vs the White Sox and stayed that way vs the Dinkenschpielers last night. Now the Timinator. This team has enough very good players that it was a matter of time before someone stepped up to bust the Pinata. Today’s performance should put a charge into this bunch ~ just in time to face recently warmed up Reds, still looking for vengeance for the 2012 NLDS.

    In case you weren’t looking Timmy was not the only one with the heroics. Buster did a nice four for 4 today with a couple RBI’s. Pair of consummate pros. Couple of the bats were pretty quiet again and once more a bases loaded situation with one out and no results. So there’s still plenty of work to do.

    Game three vs the Reds will be #81 for the season. Halfway mark. Could just be that Timmy Terrific terminated the slide with today’s heroics. Don’t expect too much but it sure would put this team back on track if they can take two of three this weekend. At least after today they will be up for the Reds and could start functioning like a team once again. Getting visions now of Timmy astride the shoulders of teammates and making the “V” for victory sign. Once again The City and Giants fans everywhere belong to the Freak.

  16. DJLoo said, on June 25, 2014 at 4:11 pm

    Tim just said “shit” live on MLB TV network. He was answering a question about getting “boinked” on the head by the Gatorade bucket…

  17. UncaChucks NinerPage said, on June 25, 2014 at 4:15 pm

    In case you haven’t seen it:

    http://m.mlb.com/video/v34033171/

    • stickman said, on June 25, 2014 at 7:51 pm

      Yeah, well you gotta have a paid prescription to view this. You shoulda let us know before i clicked it. I don’t pay for shit like that. Against my principals and superintendent too.l

      • chipower9 said, on June 25, 2014 at 10:03 pm

        Hmmm…nothing came up about having to pay when I clicked on it.

  18. Alleykat said, on June 25, 2014 at 4:16 pm

    Nothing like a “NO HITTER” to raise a teams chemisty that much higher!!!!
    Congrats Timmy, your the MAN!!!!

  19. blade3colorado said, on June 25, 2014 at 4:23 pm

    More on Chuck’s comment . . . Only 2 players have the 2 Trifecta – Tim Lincecum and Sandy Koufax.

    • Irish Kevin said, on June 25, 2014 at 4:34 pm

      Why am I not surprised!!

    • DJLoo said, on June 25, 2014 at 4:38 pm

      Koufax almost had 2 MVPs also. Had more first place votes than Clemente in 1966 but got edged out…

  20. zumiee said, on June 25, 2014 at 4:24 pm

    Congrats, Timmy!! The Franchise, The Freak, The Dude!!
    A badly needed boost of morale for the team today. Hopefully the beginning of a big turnaround for the team.

    A pretty good Reds team coming in next. Hopefully Bochy realizes that Blanco’s not a lead-off hitter. 0-5 today, with a bunch of fly-outs. Blanco is hopeless in that regard. He should be a #7 hitter or so.

    • Irish Kevin said, on June 25, 2014 at 4:36 pm

      So who leads off? Panik or Crawford are the only two that come to mind. Not sure about either of them leading off.

      • zumiee said, on June 25, 2014 at 5:00 pm

        Pence, IMO. He bats leadoff anyway with one out, after Blanco’s obligatory first inning out.

    • stickman said, on June 25, 2014 at 7:53 pm

      CrawDaddy may not have the speed but he does have 8 triples already. He’s in pretty fast company in that category.

  21. Flavor said, on June 25, 2014 at 4:34 pm

    Talk about a “panic” feeling. What was it, his 3rd gm? And he’s gotta field and throw the final out of a no hitter?
    I guess it was “got to” not gotta…,

  22. pawliekokonuts said, on June 25, 2014 at 4:51 pm

    Been tweeting like a maniac. Giants fans are twittermaniacs. Figures.

  23. dirtnrocksnomo said, on June 25, 2014 at 6:12 pm

    Headed up to the yard with my father in law today. We arrived a bit early and hit the dugout store. I got an orange and black fishing hat not knowing that it would immediately become my new lucky hat. We headed into the yard to see some of the early activity. Belt was playing catch and Lincecum was stretching out by the pen. He was busting some yoga moves and as I watched him I was impressed with his flexibility. As the game started the FIL and I talked about Lincecum’s early game struggles. We both hoped for a clean inning and Lincecum started out well enough with a couple of Ks and then a walk in the second. It was good to see the Giants put a couple of runs up early. Going through the game, inning after inning, it didn’t seem like he was dominating and then you look up and there is a no hitter going. Watching a no-no in person is a lot less stressful than seeing it on TV. The people around us didn’t start talking about it until the 6th. In the 7th and 8th the standing ovations really took hold. By the time the 9th rolled around it seemed inevitable and I was struck by how quickly he got through the last 1/2 inning. What a game.

    • Flavor said, on June 25, 2014 at 6:24 pm

      I forgot you were at the gm till Chuck said something about it. I hit the “like” button early in the day…little did we know

    • chipower9 said, on June 25, 2014 at 10:07 pm

      When I dropped you a note before game time, no way I imagined you would see something like this unfold. That is so bad ass. So happy for you that you were there, Dirt. Congrats on getting us that win I asked for, AND a little bit more.

  24. snarkk said, on June 25, 2014 at 6:18 pm

    GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!
    Oh, sorry.
    Timmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!…

  25. snarkk said, on June 25, 2014 at 6:36 pm

    Timmy 2 for 3 today with a walk, 2 runs scored.
    ‘Bout damn time Timmy starts hitting… ๐Ÿ˜‰

  26. Bozo said, on June 25, 2014 at 7:26 pm

    Great shot, but come on, give it up for Murph.

    • Bozo said, on June 25, 2014 at 7:28 pm

      Oh yeah. I think you could title this Chemistry 101

      • blade3colorado said, on June 25, 2014 at 7:34 pm

        shhh . . . James might be listening. ๐Ÿ™‚

  27. Macdog said, on June 25, 2014 at 7:39 pm

    All 27 outs: http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/28033182/v34033521

  28. dirtnrocksnomo said, on June 25, 2014 at 7:43 pm

    Now that I think about it, this was bound to happen as my father in law and I were at the Pettit no hitter into the 9th last year and the Lincecum plus a bunch of BP arms near no hitter earlier this year. I think that one went into the 6th. Gonna have to watch the CSN replay tonight. I’m sure the wife will enjoy that.

    • snarkk said, on June 25, 2014 at 7:52 pm

      Dirt, you need to go to Cain’s next game at ATT, give him some of that Dirt mojo to get right…

  29. stickman said, on June 25, 2014 at 7:58 pm

    People were carping about Timmy’s contract for, what was it, $35M? Today he just knocked about $5M off that one. Fans attending games in SF or wherever when #55 is pitching may not know for sure what they’re gonna get, but today’s outing just proved once again that Lincecum sure can cover those seats with butts.

  30. paulinasia said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:07 pm

    Right near the end of that one video showing the last out and the on-field celebration, there’s one view of Timmy as the out is made, and reading his lips, it looks like, not sure, but looks like he pulls out his famous “Fuck yeah!” again. I love that.

  31. pawliekokonuts said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:29 pm

    Dirt, excellent reporting! It’s like a time capsule. I get what you mean about less stressful in person. The WS was like that. It’s like, hey, if if it doesn’t work out, we’re all here together. If it does, we are all here together. Not explaining it right, but the communal aspect gives it an altogether different flavor, if I may use that word here.

  32. pawliekokonuts said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:31 pm

    CSNBayArea showed Bochy toasting Timmy in the clubhouse. Great clip! That fecking gladiator helmet is a fecking hoot!

    • snarkk said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:34 pm

      Either the Giants keep champers on ice for the random great occasion during the entire regular season, or Baer made a run to BevMo before the game ended…

    • blade3colorado said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:55 pm

      When he was doing the gladiator hat bit and raising his hands, each index finger for emphasis, I was reminded of Mad Max, Lord Humongous specifically . . . LOL

  33. snarkk said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:33 pm

    As much as I’ve been disappointed by Timmy the last two years like the rest of us, it’s not my disappointment in him as a person, as a competitor. I’ve never doubted his competitiveness, other than his seeming inability to get better at holding runners on. He’s seemed genuinely embarrassed and perplexed by his slide, never blaming anybody but himself for it. To the point, I’ve just been disappointed by his inability to figure out how to pitch well again without his early career velocity. Days like today remind me of why this “kid” is in my top 5 list of all time favorite Giants. It’s likely that today’s effort means squat as to how Timmy will fare going forward from here. But, it sure was cool…

    • Nipper said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:35 pm

      I concur.

      • pawliekokonuts said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:46 pm

        I con-concur, if I can make up a word.

    • chipower9 said, on June 25, 2014 at 10:20 pm

      I concur, cubed.

  34. pawliekokonuts said, on June 25, 2014 at 8:57 pm

    Watching the cool 5:28 27-out recap Macdog gave us the link for, I thought there were 1 or 2 groundouts that were quite close and one slightly scary play in the OF, when Morse cut in front of Blanco. That, and the typical anxiety of watching Pence catch a ball. But otherwise, Timmy made it look easy.

    • dirtnrocksnomo said, on June 25, 2014 at 9:14 pm

      I was just thinking that. There weren’t any real spectacular plays. Just crisp baseball.

  35. DJLoo said, on June 25, 2014 at 9:34 pm

    After Tim’s no-no last year, the Giants lost 9 of their next 12…

  36. snarkk said, on June 25, 2014 at 9:49 pm

    KNBR replaying the no-hitter right now, all top half frames…

  37. snarkk said, on June 25, 2014 at 9:53 pm

    I may be a stick in the mud, but I really didn’t appreciate Cain drenching Timmy with that bucket of Powerade when he was starting to give an interview to AmyG. Cain was more accurate with that compared to his recent location on his pitches. Not that it would be a Nobel Prize speech, but I would have liked to hear what Lincecum was thinking right after the game ended. Tim was totally drenched, bolted the interview down into the dugout and sputtered an F-bomb as he was heading down into the clubhouse corridor…

  38. snarkk said, on June 25, 2014 at 10:03 pm

    Nice photo of the post-no-hitter celebration…

    • chipower9 said, on June 25, 2014 at 10:26 pm

      BAD ASS picture.

      Wow, what a ride. I was sitting at work and thankfully had no meetings today, so I was able to listen from the beginning. It was around the 6th when my ears really started to perk-up. Timmy has always been my daughter’s boy since day one. She and I went to dinner last week and discussed Timmy. I was telling her that I really questioned his ability to be any semblance of the pitcher he was. And then he pulls out a gem like this. With #55, you just never know.

      I echo snarkk’s sentiments, Timmy will always be one of my top five Giants (has been since very early in his career).

      Let’s hope this is an indication of more good times ahead.

      LET’S ROLL!


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