THE San Francisco Giants Blog

Hot Stove Time!

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on November 3, 2015

Jeeeeezus.

While we’re waiting for the hot stove to warm up, I thought we could take a look back at who the hottest free agents were 5 years ago. Here they are: Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth and Adam Dunn.

Uhhhhhhhhhhh…..

Honestly, I don’t really mind all the dumb rumors although I pay almost no attention to them. The problem for me is when and if we get one of these chumps at 100 million dollars (or more). It almost never works out. I’m not going to do it now, it’s too early, but let’s play a game and see who can come up with 5 free agent pick ups that worked out over the course of their contract. Minimum deal: 100 million. Let’s say you can go back 10 years. If you can’t come up with 5, just come up with 1. One.

And….go!

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62 Responses

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  1. sfsarge said, on November 3, 2015 at 6:11 am

    Joe Mauer! But seriously, I cheated a little and Googled it and I think the only one that may have even come close was Jeter, and his last few years were unremarkable. But are we talking on the field performance or the butts in seats factor? For BIS his contract I think was worth it. Not that I know any Yankmee fans.

  2. chipower9 said, on November 3, 2015 at 7:06 am

    Dusty Baker is the new manager for the Washington Natty Nats. Congrats to Johnnie B.

    I just got my copy of his recently released book. Looking forward to the read after I finish my current book.

  3. wilcojoe said, on November 3, 2015 at 7:12 am

    It’s way too early to tell but Giancarlo Stanton could prove to be a smart long term investment. Of course it doesn’t help that these flukish injuries have kept him out for so long, so early in his career. His 13 year contract averages out to $25mm per year, which with baseball inflation, could be a steal in a few years.

  4. unca_chuck said, on November 3, 2015 at 7:13 am

    Good for Dusty. A–Rod?

  5. willedav said, on November 3, 2015 at 7:19 am

    Mets signed Granderson at 4 yrs for $60 mil and he had very productive season this year–26 HRs .821 OPS.
    He is 34 and they owe him for 2 more.

    You could probably look at any of Yanks recent signings as the argument against–Beltran, Tex, McCann, Headley yada yada.

    It will be interesting to see what happens with the SPs; jury still out on Scherzer but he’s had one good year.

  6. Flavor said, on November 3, 2015 at 7:28 am

    I appreciate the names you guys are throwing out and Jeter is a good pick. But I’m talking about guys who fulfilled those 100 million dollar deals with production.

    • wilcojoe said, on November 3, 2015 at 7:51 am

      In terms of fulfilling at >$100mm, I think you are right. Not one. I am assuming guys who were traded during their contract (A-Rod) would not count?

      • Flavor said, on November 3, 2015 at 7:52 am

        No, that would count

  7. Bozo said, on November 3, 2015 at 7:53 am

    It goes back to 93 but would Bonds count? Like him or not (I do), he not only produced numbers but assisted in building a rabid fan base and one could argue, a gem of a stadium.

    • chipower9 said, on November 3, 2015 at 9:36 am

      Bonds definitely came to mind and fulfilled his contract. Over 10 years and initial contract (even though the largest at the time it was under 100 mil). I am a huge Bonds fan, too.

  8. unca_chuck said, on November 3, 2015 at 8:14 am

    Kevin Brown was my fave. For the awfulness of it.

  9. unca_chuck said, on November 3, 2015 at 8:17 am

    A-Rod it is . . . He had 3 MVPs in the years following his 10 year deal in 2000. Sure, it was for Texas and the Yanks but that 10 year span he (roidedly) crushed it.

  10. djloo27 said, on November 3, 2015 at 8:32 am

    Did 2012 make Zito worth it?

    • Flavor said, on November 3, 2015 at 8:47 am

      for me it did, but not for a lot of other Giants fans.

    • sfsarge said, on November 3, 2015 at 9:55 am

      For me too. All those years of putrid baseball, atoned for with 3 brilliant outings and a beautiful bunt.

  11. Flavor said, on November 3, 2015 at 8:51 am

    this is a total guess and I’m not looking it up, but let’s say 5 guys a year have been signed to over a 100 million dollar deals over the last 10 years. That’s 50 players. And let’s say 2 turned out productive over most of the course of those deals. That’s 4 percent of the deals. So if you want to give one of these guys 100 million+ you’ve got a 25-1 shot of it hitting. If you’re playing the horses, how often do you feel good about the 25-1 shot you’re betting on? Probably pretty good, right? Like you’re a sharpie. And then he runs up the track……..

  12. Macdog said, on November 3, 2015 at 10:10 am

    After a Google search of $100M+ deals, here’s one: Manny Ramirez, 8 years, $160M with the Red Sox starting in 2001. Productive seasons ranging from good to outstanding for just about the entire length, and was part of two World Series titles, The first, of course, was a pretty significant one, and while Manny’s production dipped in ’07, he had a good postseason on the way to title #2. Traded in mid-’08 to L.A., where he continued raking that season.

  13. snarkk said, on November 3, 2015 at 10:24 am

    None of these mega deals make much sense outside of a baseball only view. Somehow the players union has convinced ownership and fans that non-economic contracts are “normal” or “market”, mainly enabled by the “market” being a monopoly…

    • pawliekokonuts said, on November 3, 2015 at 11:02 am

      that’s what I was struggling to say, below

  14. pawliekokonuts said, on November 3, 2015 at 10:34 am

    Magnus, thanks for showing up and posting here as you drink your coffee in the dark, the house quiet, your soul percolating.

  15. pawliekokonuts said, on November 3, 2015 at 10:35 am

    Phew. Nationals front office seems a hot mess.

  16. pawliekokonuts said, on November 3, 2015 at 10:39 am

    You’d think dumbass baseball owners would wise up. They throw around troughs of money like the “early Roman kings” (Bob Dylan phrase). Ego, ego, ego, ego. How else to explain it? If you did that in a business that really had to be run like a business, the board would never allow it. I say, SF and KC have both demonstrated the limits of being a wastrel. But I have NO data to back up that assertion.

  17. Flavor said, on November 3, 2015 at 10:41 am

    Dusty is basically the same at managing pitchers as Williams was—shitty. So that leaves, among other things, how he connects to the players. I’m guessing Williams didn’t ever even talk to those guys but that’s weird because he said he learned everything he knew about managing from Baker. Can’t teach personality though, I guess.

    • pawliekokonuts said, on November 3, 2015 at 10:58 am

      I heard Stephen King say on NPR today that you can’t teach writing. You can learn it, but you can’t inject the native talent into someone. I agree. Maybe it’s the same with managing a Major League ballclub.

    • Bozo said, on November 3, 2015 at 11:46 am

      Harper will run through fences for Dusty, oh wait…

      I always felt that Dusty’s biggest problem with pitchers was that he’d let them talk him into leaving them in. Hell, my 94 year old Aunt, a hardcore Reds fan, even complained about it. Although, with the Nats rotation, that might not be a bad idea.. Still, he has gotten each of his teams into the playoffs. For the next couple of years DC will be tough, look forward to beating them in the NLCS next year.

      • ewisco said, on November 3, 2015 at 12:50 pm

        the problem with dusty isn’t necessarily pitching per se but his inability to make the shift from the regular season to the post-season. during the season he’s very protective of player’s egos and that’s great as far as it goes. but in the post-season, and I’ve said this many times before, you have to win this game now. if that means leaving people who were important to your season-long success off the roster, oh well. if that means you pitch brian Wilson’s arm off, too bad. you have to win THIS game NOW. No one on the team can be sensitive about their place in the winning process until it’s won. then you celebrate. Joe Torres understood that, bochy understands that and maybe a couple others. db, not so much.

      • unca_chuck said, on November 3, 2015 at 1:38 pm

        Well, that’s exactly what he did with Robb Nen. Come up one game short . . .

  18. chipower9 said, on November 3, 2015 at 11:18 am

    Although only a couple of years are in the “within 10 year window,” I would say that Griffey Jr’s was a good one. He averaged almost 24 HRs over the life (9 years) of the deal.

    Another that was decent was Beltran.

    But, there are not many. Dipshit owners keep paying it though. I guess they feel the need to show they are “trying” in paying the big bucks, and that they hope that translates into butts in the seats.

  19. Flavor said, on November 3, 2015 at 11:25 am

    dipshit owners may keep paying it but as fans who think this shit through, these signings are not making the team better. if anything, it’s making them worse. A season doesn’t meet expectation after a big signing and then the next year the GM says “well, we just spent 150 mil on so and so—can’t afford any more big ticket signings.” So the team doesn’t add anyone new AND the overpriced player is taking up a spot that a replacement player MIGHT be better suited for.
    It’s almost like we should be bummed if the Giants sign Greinke or someone like him……..

    • snarkk said, on November 3, 2015 at 11:36 am

      I don’t want another albatross starter contract. Bring up the young arms, see who sticks. Giants do nothing but draft arms arms and more arms, so let’s start seeing them…

    • chipower9 said, on November 3, 2015 at 1:13 pm

      Yes, I am not a proponent of bringing in a big name FA. As you have pointed out, more often than not, these deals never pan out.

  20. willedav said, on November 3, 2015 at 11:36 am

    The F-G argument is that the front end outweighs the back end IF those first years are productive enough to generate team success–which will correspond to playoffs, BIS, etc. The writers usually use WAR as defining stat, in other words 3 WAR player is equal in value to salary of x amount of millions.

    Posey, btw, racking up pretty significant WAR numbers last couple years. Will he turn out to be exception to the general rule as posited here?

    Sorry, but emphatic NO to Zito. Nice guy if you get past the psycho babble nonsense he used to explain years of suckitude in giants uni, but NO. Are you really telling me Giants could not have gotten more value from what he was paid? In one post season, his greatest value was not being on the roster.

    • snarkk said, on November 3, 2015 at 11:40 am

      Totally agree. Zito’s 2012 playoff performance stands out to fans because the prior years were such suckage. He did well and helped win those playoffs, but for me that doesn’t wipe out 6 years of crapola…

    • willedav said, on November 3, 2015 at 11:47 am

      Posey (not an FA I realize) was a 6 WAR player last season and probably worth every bit of the $16.5 mil.
      Albert Pujols, in the 4 years he has been with Angels, has 6 WAR last 2 years for a total, with only 1 season at 4 WAR, and 2015 salary at $23 mil I think. Yikes…Angels of course shut out of playoffs last couple too.

  21. pawliekokonuts said, on November 3, 2015 at 11:51 am

    all these stats . . . and no James popping in

    • chipower9 said, on November 3, 2015 at 1:14 pm

      Yes, where the hell is the statmeister when you need him?!

  22. alleykat69 said, on November 3, 2015 at 12:12 pm

    What’s with those dumb shit owners for Washington?
    Had Bud Black locked up sort of, who I feel would of been a better fit then Bake, but then try to lowball- corn holed his ass with a ridiculous 1 yr 1.6 ml offer, which Black said was an embarrassment, (Which he is totally right) and for 1 year? make good with a bunch of malcontents?You have to go longer with the contract and dinero and + your all new staff to even think you can turn these under achiever’s around..

    • chipower9 said, on November 3, 2015 at 1:17 pm

      Agree, Kat. Nats stepped all over their dick on that one. No offense to Dusty, but I think Black is a better manager. Good for him to stand up to those asswhipes and say no thanks.

  23. Bozo said, on November 3, 2015 at 12:19 pm

    I guess that old saying that your worth what someone is willing to pay you, is true. If someone gave me a multi year $100 mil contract, yeah I’d say I was worth it (although I’d probably retire after one year). Still we’ve all seen how a bloated payroll doesn’t always buy the championship, we’ve all seen some teams pay heavy for a few guys but not have enough to field their other 20+ positions, and on the other end, well, we’ve all seen the A’s.

    It is all about getting and spending our entertainment dollars. Is Greinke worth $100 mil? Is Tom Cruise worth what he gets paid to do a move? Are the speaking fees for GW Bush worth $100,000? The answer is yes, because someone is willing to pay them that.

    Even with all that, when I look at the $90 mil, 5 year, Hunter Pence contract I can’t help but think, we got a fucking bargain for that guy. I wonder what Hunter’s speaking fees would be?

    • chipower9 said, on November 3, 2015 at 1:16 pm

      Yes! Yes! Yes! Pence’s contract has been what they say “Money!”

    • willedav said, on November 3, 2015 at 1:30 pm

      Imagine a guy like that talking to kids, what a cool message he brings to everyone and every thing he does.
      Yeah man, bargain indeed.

      Like that commercial, “Priceless.”

    • unca_chuck said, on November 3, 2015 at 1:46 pm

      Hunter would do it for free.

  24. gianthead said, on November 3, 2015 at 1:33 pm

    Barry Zito????? Hahahahahahaha….

    • gianthead said, on November 3, 2015 at 1:34 pm

      But his 2012 start against the Cards was maybe worth it all???

  25. unca_chuck said, on November 3, 2015 at 1:43 pm

    Ain’t my cheddar but really. Let other teams overpay for Grienke. Shit, he’s 34. Shades of Jason Schmidt. Another one of my favorite big-dollar signings. By the Dogs no less.

    Zito? Hell yeah! Throw him a fucking parade for his 2012 postseason. Even if it was my money. I’d buy him a solid gold surfboard. And a matching guitar. I had ZERO faith in him and he delivered. Still one of the most unreal things to me that came to pass in this 3-in-5 era.

  26. Flavor said, on November 3, 2015 at 2:23 pm

    Pence has been worth it but what if he has 2 more years like this last one? Yes, he was worth it but no he wouldn’t have been productive through the course of the deal.

    • Bozo said, on November 3, 2015 at 4:39 pm

      Yes if that’s the case, he wouldn’t be as productive and I agree, he still would have been worth the contract. He gave us 162 regular season games each of the previous two years (160 in 2012 combined with his time with the Phils), so I’m not looking at him like he’s an injury prone type player. Hopefully the Cubs don’t break his arm in ST again this year.

  27. unca_chuck said, on November 3, 2015 at 3:36 pm

    Yeah, when you look at Jason Werth, you think holy shit, we are stealing. Hopefully Hunter will ease off the crazy workout shit and just play. Get back to not missing games.

  28. gianthead said, on November 3, 2015 at 3:39 pm

    Dusty ‘ s managing albatross was his handling of pitching strategy in the playoffs. Overused certain relievers who had been gassed or maybe even injured at the end of the regular season And then the infamous moment of pulling Russell Ortiz one batter too soon…

    • snarkk said, on November 3, 2015 at 5:26 pm

      My beef with Dusty was starting Livan in game 7 over Woody. Livan had been going badly, but Dusty was loyal over managing for the moment– like Ewisco astutely noted above. The squad wanted Woody to take the ball…

      • djloo27 said, on November 3, 2015 at 8:18 pm

        No one ever brings up the forgotten one year wonder – 13 game winner Ryan Jensen, who was foolishly left off the 2002 WS roster.

  29. gianthead said, on November 3, 2015 at 3:54 pm

    I generally agree about the $100 mill deals and was opposed to the idea of Panda getting that kind of deal, but I think Greinke is the exception to the rule for two reasons. Keeping him from the Dodgers I think is a big reason but the question mark that is Matt Cain right now is my biggest concern. Sliding Greinke into that #2 slot is worth the $150 million. And I would hope for 3 above average years and would live with a couple of average years after that.

    If the Giants end up winning another title in those 3 years, then it was a good deal. If not, then it will be argued it wasn’t. Of course if the Dodgers don’t win in those 5-6 years, I say it is worth it..

    • zumiee said, on November 3, 2015 at 4:02 pm

      I totally agree with this; but I also understand why some don’t agree with it.

      • djloo27 said, on November 3, 2015 at 7:25 pm

        I feel very strongly both ways…

  30. zumiee said, on November 3, 2015 at 4:07 pm

    That fiasco with the Nationals is bizarre. How do you offer a new manager, with 8 years managing experience, 1 year/1.6 million? How was he supposed to command the respect of the players? Then the Nats thought they were being super-generous by upping the offer to two years, at the same rate. What a bunch of doofusses.
    Baker really wants a managing job, to be willing to step into that mess.

    • snarkk said, on November 3, 2015 at 5:21 pm

      Bochy is making around $2.5 M per year, I think. That report on Black’s supposed offer seems very weird–why would a team make such an offer to a legit, experienced manager?…

      • snarkk said, on November 3, 2015 at 5:23 pm

        Didn’t Donny two trips get 4 years in Miami?

      • zumiee said, on November 3, 2015 at 7:56 pm

        Yeah. And he seemed very happy at the press conference. The Dodger situation just wasn’t much fun for him. It was kind of a no-win situation in that, if he won, he was supposed to win with a $300 million payroll, and if he lost, then it was his fault. He gets to take a team now that there are not big immediate expectations about. And there is a nice core of talent there, if they can stay healthy.

  31. zumiee said, on November 3, 2015 at 7:59 pm

    A few months ago the Murdoch empire bought National Geographic, and today they layed off 9% of the National Geographic Society’s staff. Not a big surprise that Murdoch would end up ruining such a great magazine. By this time next year, expect National Geographic cover stories about “The Myth of Climate Change” and “Endangered Species Are Wimps.”

    • snarkk said, on November 3, 2015 at 10:41 pm

      I don’t understand why an organization like National Geographic would sell its soul to a ghoul like Murdoch. Over 100 years of integrity and progress charting the natural world, and then you sell a majority of yourself to this unethical outfit? Mind boggling…


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