A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball

Belt’s Worth

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on March 21, 2016

Baggs wrote a piece today on the worth of Brandon Belt and the differences in opinion of how one gets to his worth.

Personally, I would not sign him to a long term deal. And not just because I don’t like him. He will be looking for Freddie Freeman money since they’re both rep’d by the same agency. I think most agents would shoot for that number, though.

I’m not going to spend the time debating his worth through the backdoor of advanced analytics since those numbers can be valuable in predicting future production and I support their use. And just because he gets hurt all the time doesn’t mean that’s something you can predict will happen in the future since the type of injuries need to be factored in and Andrew Bogut is a good example of a guy who got hurt all the time early in his career only to put weirdo injuries behind him (for the most part) once he became a Warrior (current injury not withstanding).

My argument against signing Belt is simple: he’s blocking Buster Posey. And while that line deserves a bit of an *lol* it’s mostly true. Posey’s deal isn’t going anywhere and he IS going somewhere (first base). Hopefully in the next year or two.

And I’m not interested in giving Belt 20+ mil a year to find out if he would be worth that as a left fielder.

Your thoughts?

54 Responses

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  1. willedav said, on March 21, 2016 at 7:44 am

    Interesting column from Baggs. Belt still has 2 years of control by the team, so you wonder how many more years SF would go. Seems surprising SF would even make tentative offer in this direction, but Crawford type deal extends him into his 30s.

    This isn’t a decision made lightly either, so I wonder if the opposite side of the Posey ? has turned on its head.
    In other words he’s less interested in playing 1b (where he’s adequate but not near as good defensively as Belt) if he doesn’t have to. Belt stays healthy for a full season Bochy can rest Posey once a week, maybe with one designated SP being caught by whomever and Posey is on the bench for 9 instead of running on and off from 1b bag.
    And a quality replacement C for a Posey move is of course another side of equation. Maybe Giants just don’t see anyone in system that looks like a promising enough hitter to become full time LU regular there.

  2. willedav said, on March 21, 2016 at 7:58 am

    Didn’t see end of regulation in A&M game (except for highlights of turnovers) but man Northern Iowa had them till they threw it away. Funny we were talking about pressure and how you beat it with proper scheme. When they threw over the top they got a layup and you should be able to do this vs. full court man if they don’t leave a safety at half court.

    vs. zone you still have to spread the floor (not bring everyone into first 15 feet along with defenders) set good screens on those denying ball and NOT throw the ball into the corner where the double team is coming. If you do then player inbounding has to step ball side for quick return pass and there needs to be longer option down sideline–if you know where to look next pass is a lot easier.
    Since players can call times out on the floor inbounder and those being trapped has to be aware that’s a good option if you don’t have anything. But obviously coaching staff didn’t have a good plan and players couldn’t make one work. And as always, lot simpler from the couch or the stands.

    • Flavor said, on March 21, 2016 at 8:04 am

      I didn’t see it either, but 12 point lead with 40 seconds to play? Wow.

  3. Carstie Clausen said, on March 21, 2016 at 8:01 am

    Coinkydink timing on this screed, Flav. Belt went 4 for four yesterday with a dinger and 4 RBI’s. He can be frustrating as hell, but the critical question is that he happens to be in the top 20 or so in OPS in the NL~ and that is without yet having a breakout year which most observers feel he fully has the capacity to pull off. As a defensive first baseman he is at the top of the league.

    Flipside is that Posey loves to catch and wants to continue donning the tools of ignorance and calling the game from the cockpit. He is an adequate first baseman and probably is good with handling that job once in awhile. As Willedav points out, the best short-term solution may be to simply let him sit once per week. In most weeks there should be one opposing starter who is not Mount Everest on the mound. With an excellent offense, SF should be able to make that day off for Buster often enough without compromising their chances in a game here and there.

    A performance-based three year contract might be a good starting point for the team to offer their first baseman.

  4. Lurker John said, on March 21, 2016 at 8:16 am

    $20mil per year for BB? No way in hell.

    • Flavor said, on March 21, 2016 at 8:42 am

      that’s absolutely the comp with Freeman

  5. dirtnrocksnomo said, on March 21, 2016 at 8:28 am

    Pence has 2 more years on his deal and I doubt he’ll get another 5 years @ $90M as a 34 year old. That’s money that is freed up when what is left of the core is Posey, Crawford and Span? The club is churning out a bunch of high avg slappy hitters at a pretty good clip but where will the middle of the order guys come from? Free agency? That is always possible I suppose. Belt is a good hitter and can still get better. If he put up a decent to good season this year I’d be okay with something in the $20M range for 5 years.

    • chipower9 said, on March 21, 2016 at 11:52 am

      No way in hell I would give him that kind of scratch even if he put up a “decent season.” Looking at the full body of work that is BB, even with a good year this year, no way in hell I would pay him 20 mil per.

      • dirtnrocksnomo said, on March 21, 2016 at 12:36 pm

        Part of the point that Baggs article is making is that Belt’s value varies depending on the metrics used. Some valuations look at Belt’s body of work and place him in the top tier of 1b. I’m not saying I necessarily agree with that assessment but with that value the comparable is Freeman. Its a valid argument from Belt’s camp.

      • chipower9 said, on March 21, 2016 at 2:30 pm

        I don’t give a fuck what comparison or analytics are used…I am just saying NO FUCKING WAY I would give Belt 20 mil per…

      • dirtnrocksnomo said, on March 21, 2016 at 2:36 pm

        So, you’re saying you don’t like Belt?

  6. alleykat69 said, on March 21, 2016 at 8:30 am

    As long as we keeping winning W/S championships with the best catcher in the game handling are pitching staff and he loves catching leave him there.
    Yeah we all want a full healthy Belt and if that happens the numbers and D will be solid enough Imo..

  7. Flavor said, on March 21, 2016 at 8:41 am

    Bruce Jenkins ‏@Bruce_Jenkins1 21m21 minutes ago
    Mike Bolsinger suffers abdominal injury just minutes after being handed Dodgers’ No. 5 starting spot http://fw.to/Yibx18C

  8. unca_chuck said, on March 21, 2016 at 8:48 am

    Yeah, I’d sign Belt. Posey is fairly adamant about not moving from Catcher, and I think he has at least a couple more years behind the dish. Belt’s defense is stellar and he’s what he is as a hitter. A full solid couple years? Sure, why not. I don’t think he’ll want to break the bank like Freddie the Freeloader. 3 with an option, Incentive-laden type thing should be enough. Bummie’s example has to at least be in the back o everyone’s mind on the team.

    Belt isn’t Pablo Sandoval but he has to notice that playing here has distinct advantages to playing anywhere else.

  9. willedav said, on March 21, 2016 at 8:49 am

    The Giants just after handing out monster contracts for SPs, and of course in very recent past have overpaid for a couple other SPs with very limited return. Cain they are still on the hook for at $20 mil per. So to me it’s less about the $$$ (tho I don’t see Giants going much over $10 mill a year for Belt) than performance/quality.

    You have right now an excellent defensive IF and one of best Cs in business. You have backup IF in Specs who has SS experience and played 2b well enough and hit while Panik was out, plus the Arroyo kid waiting in the wings should any problems develop, physical or otherwise. The Giants seem set there with homegrown talent and plenty of it.

    Blanks is back to minor camp and Susac is still not 100% over wrist problem. Brown at his age does not appear to be a full time ml player. So I hope Posey is C for as long as possible and keeps staff going well for way more than 1 or 2 yrs. Next step is Belt makes more contact and figures out how to be more productive hitter at ATT, pulling the ball down line for power and blasting ball into LCF gap for doubles triples and more.

  10. Bozo said, on March 21, 2016 at 8:58 am

    Since 2012 the Giants are 63-64 when Posey wears the long glove. I don’t know why that is, but I sure hope he stays behind the plate for a few more years.

  11. zumiee said, on March 21, 2016 at 9:18 am

    I don’t know if it factors into Buster’s thinking at wanting to stay at catcher as long as he can (it probably doesn’t factor in, but who knows?), but he has a better chance of getting to the Hall of Fame if he stays as primarily a catcher for the next 4 or 5 years. It would be easy for us fans to pooh-pooh a player thinking Hall of Fame; but these guys retire, and then potentially have half of their life or more left to them. To be able to walk around for decades as a Hall of Famer is a pretty cool thing.
    Buster has a lot of Hall credentials already, he just needs more longevity now to add to his numbers.
    And especially if Yadier Molina gets into the Hall, then Buster should be a slam-dunk.

    Belt will probably always be a bit of an odd duck. He was quoted this week as saying that the biggest change to his life since his wife gave birth is that, when he’s at home, he can longer sleep 10 straight hours at night.
    10 hours? I’m not even sure that’s healthy.
    Belt probably has the perfect personality for the situation the Giants have, where Buster is going to take some of his starts at firstbase. Belt is very team-oriented, and I think the Giants should work on getting an extension done with him. He probably wouldn’t be trying to break the bank with them. But don’t insult him with a cheapo offer, either.

  12. Flavor said, on March 21, 2016 at 9:47 am

    still reeling from his quote of “as a dig me sesh” when he told a reporter why he re-watches his 19th inning playoff home run. No ballplayer, in fact no human being, should ever say “as a dig me sesh”….

    • chipower9 said, on March 21, 2016 at 11:56 am

      No shit!

  13. Macdog said, on March 21, 2016 at 10:36 am

    From the Brewers: RHP Wily Peralta has been named the Opening Day starter on April 4 vs. San Francisco. This will mark his first Opening Day start.

    Two weeks away!

    • ewisco said, on March 21, 2016 at 11:17 am

      any relation to wily coyote?

      • zumiee said, on March 21, 2016 at 11:47 am

        Not to nitpick; but I think, technically, his name is actually Wile E. Coyote.

  14. chipower9 said, on March 21, 2016 at 11:58 am

    Trade Belt!

    JK…most Flappers know I am not a huge BB9 fan. The dude has just been too inconsistent for me (both in production at the plate and in staying healthy). I would offer Belt three years at around 36 mil (12 per)…NO MORE, with a team option for a fourth.

    • zumiee said, on March 21, 2016 at 12:05 pm

      He might go for it, if they do it sooner than later.

    • Macdog said, on March 21, 2016 at 12:07 pm

      That seems pretty fair to me.

  15. dirtnrocksnomo said, on March 21, 2016 at 12:50 pm

    Baggs’ piece was interesting. That may be the first time I have seen Belt make any serious statements that were quoted. I think he wants to hit the FA market and test his value.

    • chipower9 said, on March 21, 2016 at 2:32 pm

      Tell him not to let the door hit him in the ass on the way out…and he will not be a FA until 2018.

      • dirtnrocksnomo said, on March 21, 2016 at 2:37 pm

        Just 2 more years to hate on him, chi. Mark the calendar!

  16. unca_chuck said, on March 21, 2016 at 12:56 pm

    Sounds about right. $42 mill tops.

    Dig me sesh?

    • Flavor said, on March 21, 2016 at 2:17 pm

      a moment in time, or a *session*, where one celebrates the achievement of oneself in an effort to increase or boost self esteem…….

  17. pawliekokonuts said, on March 21, 2016 at 1:41 pm

    Go, ‘Cuse!
    Liked your Trumpian musings yesterday.

  18. dirtnrocksnomo said, on March 21, 2016 at 1:46 pm

    Agent Zero with a two out RBI to tie it at 1. He’s hitting .308 this spring.

  19. Flavor said, on March 21, 2016 at 2:00 pm

    shit, I thought the Giants medicos staff was incompetent.

    • snarkk said, on March 21, 2016 at 5:40 pm

      Wow, are they using voodoo doctors in Nola? How can you play three years with a torn labrum?…

  20. xoot said, on March 21, 2016 at 2:42 pm

    Jeff S has given up 6 in 6 today, including two bombs, to Oakland. The starting pitchers certainly throwing a lot of BP this ST.

    • xoot said, on March 21, 2016 at 2:43 pm

      double O zero just made a great stop at SS and a decent throw to get the runner easily.

  21. chipower9 said, on March 21, 2016 at 2:48 pm

    Went back and read through the “Trump Thread.” snarkk posted the following:

    ” We should probably all hit the Cuban beaches before Marriott, Hilton and the rest of them ruin everything, and the locals sell all their 40s and 50s vintage cars to rich US collectors…”

    To that I say Flapalooza, Havana style!

  22. dirtnrocksnomo said, on March 21, 2016 at 3:30 pm

    Parker hovering around .200.

  23. zumiee said, on March 21, 2016 at 4:08 pm

    Hey, it’s just Spring Training; no need to worry about these starting pitcher ERA’s yet right? (I hope!) 🙂
    Samarge: 8.53
    Peavy: 8.53
    MadBum: 10.57
    Cain: 10.12
    Cueto: 16.62 (not counting the minor league game)

  24. zumiee said, on March 21, 2016 at 4:09 pm

    And the Giants have officially lost to the A’s a million times in a row in Spring Training.

    • alleykat69 said, on March 21, 2016 at 4:50 pm

      Yeah no shit Zumie!
      “I haven’t seen that much ownage since I use to handcuff an ex girlfriend to the bedposts”

  25. snarkk said, on March 21, 2016 at 5:18 pm

    All this talk of trading Belt and his comparables to Freddie Freeloader/Freeman has me feelin Kind of Blue…

  26. snarkk said, on March 21, 2016 at 5:27 pm

    If I were Belt I’d go for FA, just go Arb every year until Heas a FA. The giants have played with him so much, I’d tell them to F off on any LT deal unless I’m paid like a top 5 first baseman, no home discount. If he played in any other park, his slugging would be higher…

  27. snarkk said, on March 21, 2016 at 7:18 pm

    Wtf is this lineup the Dubs are putting on the floor? They look like they’re gassed…

    • snarkk said, on March 21, 2016 at 7:35 pm

      Sheezus the last few minutes of this Dubs game was brutal quality of play; Dubs pulled it out largely because Wolves suck…

  28. Flavor said, on March 21, 2016 at 7:43 pm

    Warriors didn’t seem too interested in playing defense in that game. They got lucky that the Wolves started missing all of their outside shots late in the game. And Curry is slumping lately.

    • snarkk said, on March 21, 2016 at 8:23 pm

      I hope Ezeli comes back and actually can play in the playoffs. Verijaio is not the guy I’d want in there for much time in a Western Conf final series backing up Bogut…

  29. willedav said, on March 21, 2016 at 8:00 pm

    Chuck, thanks for the Miles, just tremendous playing. that lu with cannonball and bill evans (tho not on that particular tune) probably my fav.

    Zum, Wile E. Coyote and his acme or ajax products has to be one of the funniest collections of wild inventions ever. Did they ever make a “best of” compilation of these?

    • zumiee said, on March 21, 2016 at 8:32 pm

      Wile E. was a demented genius; but unfortunately the king of bad luck. That would be a great compilation.

  30. zumiee said, on March 21, 2016 at 8:22 pm

    Wow- and then the Spurs lose to the Hornets. The grind of a long season….

    • snarkk said, on March 21, 2016 at 8:25 pm

      Yep. Kerr said the squad was mentally tired. 10 games in 16 days. That’s a lot of games, plus the travel. I think the NBA could easily do away with 10 regular season games. Same as MLB, back to 154 would be plenty of games. How many friggin times can you watch the Pads or Rocks without going blind?…

  31. Paul Sorensen said, on March 21, 2016 at 8:24 pm

    I think Belt is going to have a great year. His last chance to turn around all you “trade Belt!” guys. Or maybe that’s just wishful thinking.

  32. unca_chuck said, on March 22, 2016 at 7:26 am

    Belt’s certainly due for a year.

    Yeah, I think the Subs shoul seriously think about days off for Curry and Thompson. Not the same day tho.

    Kerr before the Spurs game said “I wish I had the balls to sit my whole team like Pops does. I’m only a 2nd year coach. I can’t give the finger to the league like he does.” I thought that was prett funny.

  33. willedav said, on March 22, 2016 at 7:34 am

    Susac according to Chron cannot swing a bat with full strength due to recurrence of wrist pain where he had surgery last summer. Brown took a backswing off the forearm, but he’s a C so I’m sure he’ll be OK. Giants also have G Kottaras in camp, he of the lifetime BA of .215 in 7 seasons. the K hasn’t even been in ml ball since 2014, when he got less than 100 ABs combined with 3 teams.

    Um, this brings to mind 2011 and the summer of the Prez and Stewart after Posey got hurt. Forget Posey moving anywhere full time. Giants are straining to even find a backup right now.

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