Back, Back, Back……
Home Run Derby Day!
Eh, not the most exciting group of guys. But it is what it is and once I turn this thing on I usually watch till conclusion. Helps a lot to have something riding on it. So let’s take a look at the contenders:
Duvall and Will Myers: 6.5-1
Cano and Seager: 9-1
This line up has 2 former winners (Cano (2011) and Frazier who is also the defending champ).
Handicapping it: Let’s start by accepting the absolute fact that mlb uses juiced balls for this event. They don’t admit to it but only an idiot could believe these dudes are hitting 475+ hr’s over and over off slow batting practice pitches. So while Petco isn’t the easiest place to hit home runs, the dimensions of the park won’t come into play with all those juiced balls being launched to the moon.
Stanton is the obvious favorite and he could get in a groove I guess. But so could any of these guys. Not only is he the favorite to win I also think he’s the favorite to injure himself mid-contest. Guys who’s hammy’s are strung tighter than a Gibson Les Paul are not guys I’d put my money on. So he’s out.
Trumbo: a worthy second favorite. He just doesn’t do anything for me so I can’t bet on him.
Frazier: defending champ probably got on his winning roll last year with the hometown backing of the crowd. He doesn’t have that this year so I’m betting against a repeat.
Adam Duvall: Who had Duvall making this contest last year before we traded him for Leake? Anyone? Bueller? I really want him to win and I have to believe he’s a batting practice hero who finally figured out how to hit the bendy shit. My guess is that the pressure of being the no-name will be his downfall. If he doesn’t get hot right away he might panic and be like, “I’m Adam Duvall, how the fuck am I here?” I might put a few bucks on him as my second choice. First sentimental choice for sure.
Wil Myers: Everyone is calling him “this year’s Frazier” and I guess it’s possible. But San Diego doesn’t strike me as the same kind of town as Cincy and while Myers could win (just like any of them) I don’t think the crowd will factor in the way it did last year with Frazier……
CarGo: Eh, if you can get the non-Sherpa factor out of your mind you could probably talk yourself into backing CarGo. I’m not there yet. Yet.
Robby Cano: If he wasn’t 33 I’d bet on this former champion. But this is a game of stamina as much as it is a game of brute power and skill. I just don’t think he’ll be able to keep going with these younger guys long enough to last to the end.
Cory Seager: this year’s Joc Pederson. Pederson was actually the favorite last year so I’m a little surprised that Seager’s the longest shot on the board this year. This guy is super talented, and I have to assume he’s in good enough shape to stay the course in this thing. And 9-1 looks very good.
I will head down to the casino later today to check the odds (the ones listed are just Bovada’s) but right now I could see myself putting $50 on Seager and maybe $10 on Duvall as a sentimental cover bet.
What would your bets be (with the same amount I am using?)