Easy Money and A New Saber Stat
I woke up this morning to see the Padres closed the deal on the Dodgers and the +380 bet me and San Dawg made last night was ready to be cashed. I walked right through my mind straight up to the teller (no lines!). He quickly cashed my ticket and I was on my way back to reality +380 taller…..
With so many saberstats out there I have decided to start creating my own. First one: WAB. It’s a twist on the WAR stat but mine stands for “Wins Above Belt”. The Giants current WAB is .800 (they are 4-1 since Belt went down on Aug 4th). That day their WWB (Wins With Belt) was .378. Obviously 5 games is a small sample size but lets see if their WAB stays above or below their .378 WWB the rest of the season. Could be an interesting predictive indicator for 2018…..
A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball 
A good WAK, too. Wins Above Kontos.
Sure. Track that one, too. I came up with WAB because I’ve been hearing about all these wins Belt *counts* for and I wanted to see how his absence affects our win total. Above or below .378? Anyone got an opinion? Currently clicking at .800 but we will likely get swept in Washington assuming it stops raining long enough to play the games. But after that? Who know, who knows…..
WAB that’s actually pretty funny. Same thing was said earlier about Pablo. Wonder about Parker too who got going right as soon as he got back into LU.
Posey doesn’t look that bad over at 1b, and I guess more he played he’d be even better at scooping throws. I kinda liked FedEx as back up C, he and Hundley or a Cervelli type could handle it. Hmmnn.
Overall tho I think pitching, getting good games out of Blach Smardz Bum and pen guys, has more to do with Giants (.500 record over 35+ games lately I think) than Belt or any others.
Sounds like Smarge getting the start tonight, Stratt will get one of the double header games. Not sure if Edwina is still going today or not.
In the Chron this morning Shea has Stratton going today with Smardz and Moore in the DH Sunday; Jackson today Sherzer in one of them tmw.
well he’s wrong, Smarge is going today.
speaking of back up Cs, could have sworn I saw Susac’s name in a box score couple days ago. For Twins maybe?
yes, he got the start. Went 0-3
Cubs scored 9 runs in 3 games at ATT but broke out for 8 last night in AZ with couple bombs off Taijuan Walker. I remember seeing this guy’s name come up as highly touted prospect all the time. He’s 0-3 in last 8 starts after being traded away by M’s..
Walker has great stuff he just doesn’t control it very well. I’d take guys like Ty Blach over him all day long
WAB is a very funny and possibly useful concept.
Unfortunately, concussions + contract have made Belt untradable for now.
I see Pedroia (about to turn 34) just got DL’ed. A Panik & Nunie reunion anyone?
Here’s Roth’s first report for the game (he’ll issue another one closer to game time). His color ratings are green/yellow/orange/red with red being a very good risk of postponement.
SF @ WASH – Another potentially ugly game in Wash, with a few pop up showers and storms before the game bringing a chance for a late start, and a more intense line likely arriving during the game. I wanted to go O/Y, but with the chance of at least a delay here looking very high (plus some PPD risk), I have to call this a solid ORANGE. Humid.
This clearly is Below (the) Belt. 😉
The versatile and all knowing one is leading off and playing 2B for the Bosox today…
Versatile, indeed: He fucks up running the bases on both coasts.
It’s part of his charm…
..speaking of Yankee castoffs, Loo/Mac,do you have any NY intel on this Jose Pirela guy tearing it up for the Pads who reminds me of Gary Matthews?
what you gonna spend your pretend +380 on my man?
.
Game is starting in a delay.
No baseball for a while here…
And now to make use of the Friday tickets, we have to be there tomorrow night…at least no rain tomorrow…
Unfortunate weather-report graphics are their own sub genre.
Why the fuck not start the game and play as long as you can?
Big fuckin’ deal if the SP is too much of a pussy to go back out after a rain delay.
Is that the thing they’re afraid of?
I don’t think they had any idea how far out the rain was. Roth was very clear in an earlier tweet that they should start and get 4-5 innings in. If this were a game featuring one of the Nats premiere pitchers I could see why they might wait (and it’s their call). But Edwina Jackson? They just have no idea what they’re doing.
Let’s play 3!
Talk about hitting the wall – Astros 3-10 in their last 13 games. Riding a 4-game losing streak – 6-game losing streak on the road.
they have no starting pitching and they’re fucked this year.
I will say this about Reds: I’d love to have their 2-3-4 hitters Cozart Votto Duvall over Craw//Panik Belt and any OF.
the fact that you would say that, but you have no interest in the guy who is on 2nd and 3rd, getting driven in ALL THE TIME (he’s 8th in the league in runs scored) is AMAZING lol
I like all 3 of these guys, esp compared to what Giants have, and as you said we disagree on value of the other guy so I won’t bring him up any more or cause any further arguments. Votto is one of those players I would pay to watch hit.
As Loo said a while ago, there isn’t anyone on current Giants (other than Bum) that excites anyone.
orioles a fun team to watch hit, knocked out A’s Manea in first inning:
walk
double
single
double
wild pitch single
double
single
4-0 with 2 guys on, Only out recorded was one guy thrown out at plate 6 hits 3 singles 3 doubles.
And what is ridiculous about this delay is thay they knew all day it would rain around game time…weather was fine the rest of the day…
First game Parker got into was Aug 3 so his WAP would be 5-2, .714 winning pct.
not really. That stat has to be without the player you’re using with the last letter. It is *above* them. Or maybe it’s with them. Then it would be WWP. That’s your .714 stat.
Horrific injury to Harper on the wet base.
So much for a Strickland-Harper rematch.
yeah. It looked bad but Harper is also a huge drama queen so I’ll wait to see the MRI on that one.
Karma for the Nats mgmt to delay a game and put their superstar at risk for injury…we still may need this team to beat the Fodgers and hopefully he just hyperextended the knee.
2 unproductive outs. Yawwwwwwwwwn.
Flav–I’m gonna spend my pretend $380 on one of those stand up paddle surfboards.
You?
well I was just gonna dump it into my tvg account but now you’re gonna make me do some work so I’ll get back to you……
Edwina is taking forever here.
Jesus. Make it 3 unproductive outs.
Harper done for year. He and the Giants don’t mix.
Dodgers just went to 2-1 in LV…
those are sharpies who are ON it. Nice.
I made that up, Flav, but it could be true…
I guess he wasn’t being a drama queen after all.
Just saw it—man that was brutal.
There will be much written and debated about rain out policies if Harper’s done for the year.
Feel bad for Dusty…
Why the hell are they playing in that rain storm. They might’ve just lost Harper for the year because the fucking bag was soaked.
Or the ability to move games up earlier in the day. I get this is the Giants only trip to DC and they feel like they have to get this game in, but they just shot themselves in the foot playing on a wet field. They should have moved the game up or cancelled it. But, tough shit dot com. The stadium will be empty when the game ends,
Affeldt’s commentary here is unbelievably stupid. Just STFU dude.
what’s he saying
Just prattling on. Harper had to be carried off the field in obvious agony and he’s saying, “this could be serious.”
Teams have rain delays all the time, if the Nats left a soggy bag out there that’s 100% on them. I would think that would be one of the first things they checked before starting the game. And the bag is covered during the rain delay so I don’t know how this could be about that……
I thought it was wholly up to the umpires.
Plus it’s still pissing down rain while they’re playing. Unless they wipe the thing down after every pitch, there’s not much to be done about keeping it dry.
The idiot Nat announcers are saying the bases are slippery as ice when they get wet.
Since when?
Maybe they’d like Pence…
That was a nasty looking hyperextension, plus he went up in the air and just slammed down on the dirt. I don’t care for Harper all that much, but he’s a great player and that was just ugly.
Will Dusty get heat for not sitting his regulars in a meaningless game on a wet field?
Should he?
the way that division is going they won’t play a meaningful game until October.
Heard Walker left game in 5th inning tonite, supposed to be heading to Brewers.
Everyone in the Washington dugout looks ashen.
Even the black players…
good. Fuck them. Unfortunately, as you indicated, this might be giving the Dodgers an advantage.
I’ve played on wet bases many times in my life. They ARE slippery as hell. But I assume that at the mlb level they address that as needed.
and this has never happened before that I can remember so this isn’t about a rainy game that started with a rain delay.
Well, they didn’t. Plus it’s drizzling as the game is going on so the bases were wet. Maybe it was a fluke, maybe it wasn’t, but the point remains they should have called the game after an over 3 hour delay.
???? They play games all the time after long delays what are you talking about?
3 hours? I’ve been to more than a few games called after 2 hours. This was before 24 hour weather channels and weather satellites I guess, but I always thought you get around 2.5 hours after the scheduled start and they get called.
I get that they ‘need’ to get this game in as this is our only DC trip yadda yadda yadda, but they just lost their best player because of it.
I could give a rat’s ass about Harper, but the whole thing is pretty fucked up.
Nice play, and Crawfish is strolling down the line.
What hapopened to Javy? He was a shit ton better than Jeremy.
I haven’t played on bases in years. They were like pillows back then.
The concrete or whatever that new shit they use on those painted outdoor basketball courts here in the schoolyards can get slippery when it’s wet…
Pence ain’t worth a fucking Pence.
There was no way they weren’t playing this game with clear weather after the big storm. They already have to play a double header tomorrow and this is an east coast team in Aug, it would have been a nightmare to play this later. And I’m watching the game now, I’m not seeing any rain at all, it seems very clear. Are we watching the same game?
It’s let up since some on the earlier comments. When Harper went down it was coming down good.
Flemming is FOS they already said what his injury is. He’s done for the year.
Ken Rosenthal
(@BreakingSprtNws)
BREAKING: Preliminary tests from #Nationals team doctors show that OF Bryce Harper has a torn ACL and PCL. MRI scheduled tomorrow.
54 mins ago · Twitter
———————————————————–
Still not a word from Washington announcers…
Tell that to Bryce. It was drizzling when it happened.
they play baseball during drizzle all the time, what are you talking about? And Flemming just said “it’s turned into a beautiful night.” This was just a random bad luck thing, there was nothing about the weather during the game that caused this. Nothing more than any other team wouldn’t have played in.
Come on Chuck. There was nothing unusual about playing baseball in those conditions, NOTHING
I still trip out on how baseball players with injuries are taken off the field. It’s always just 2 random dudes hauling them off, swinging them back and forth, it doesn’t look professional or good for the player at all
Nothing beats soccer . . .
Plenty of seasons have gone 161 games for certain teams on account of rainouts. If they need to play the game to determine something they play it later. Again, I don’t give a shit either way, but this seriously fucked DCs shot at a WS this year.
there was NOTHING usual about this, I don’t think you follow how games across the country get played. There are rain delays all the time and the field isn’t in perfect condition once the start to play. And they are playing now and the field is in PERFECT condition. I think you are too used to just watching Giants baseball in the summer time with no rain problems. There are WAY MORE rain problems and field issues during the summer time that make this current field look like a non issue.
I posted below without the cool vid the same thing. and add game 4 2012 in Detroit
I’ll end with this: Find one reputable national writer or even a beat writer that is willing to say they shouldn’t have played this game. I’ll be shocked if you can. There was nothing unusual about a long rain delay and then play, especially with nearly perfect weather after the delay. East coast guys, feel free to chime in but I know I’m right about this.
There will be plenty I bet, Flav.
And Dusty will get shit for playing his regulars…
Second guessing is a national pastime…
context aside, games like this get played all the time. I deal with this nearly daily with fantasy sports. Why do you think Kevin Roth is someone I follow? Sorting out weather in baseball is one of the more critical issues with daily fantasy baseball. And delays are part of the game at least 3 or 4 times a week.
You’re very familiar with my annual rant about the danger to the kids in the outfield at the HR Derby.
Business as usual – as long as there’s no incident.
But just wait till there is…
You’re absolutely right Flav. But as Loo say’s, this will give the talking heads something to make into a big fucking deal. I guarantee you the players would prefer to get the game in then be forced to have to make up as a cross country trip on a Monday off day. My take is this. Cancel the game, since it will have zero impact on the final standings.
I’m 100% sure people will say it. Why? Because it happened.
Like I said earlier it may have been a fluke but it happened. And the conditions may have played their small part.
It’s all hindsight however. Like Dusty being called to task for playing Harper. Like someone said earlier they could have easily moved the game time up 3 hours to get it in. before the rain.
well, let’s see if 100% of reputable sportswriters are saying this. Or even one. Repost anything you find tomorrow. They were never going to move the game up 3 hours that was never considered. Chuck, you are surprising me with some of these comments tonight.
Read what I said.
Ryder Jones finishing his very good play easily could’ve been the one seriously injured slipping off that wet bag. Instead, Harper, hustling like hell to beat out an IF single, hit the skid and had his cleat dig into the ground at full speed. The sudden change in momentum catapulted him into the air, cartwheeling like an acrobat. That was brutal on the knee. Terrible loss for the season. But I don’t think we need to put domes over the all the fields to be sure everything’s safe and dry.
exactly. This was just a bad luck thing. Games start after long rain delays all the time, there was nothing unusual about this except what happened to Harper. Coulda been Ryder as Xoot said.
The point was to call the game due to the conditions not shrink wrap all the stadiums.
again, teams deal with this all the time throughout the season. 3 hours is a long time but not unheard of at all. And the weather was fine once they started playing. Let’s see who shows up on the national scene tomorrow to rant about this. I’m not talking about dumbass fans, actual people who know that rain delays happen all the time. ALL THE TIME lol
2012–game 4 in Detroit, very wet and cold; game 7 vs. St Louis in SF, drenched
exactly. I can’t believe we are even talking about this.
You do get that there’s a difference between an early August game and a playoff/world series game?
you do get that games like this happen all the time, right? You’re aware of weather across the country that affects baseball games? Dude there are delays all the time, how are you just now realizing this?
You do get that playing baseball on a well drained field after hard rain has passed on, even if light rain returns for a while, is the norm–for baseball?
Ha, me and XOOT nearly posting the same thing at the same time, that is crazy. I’m done with this. Chuck, I can’t believe you don’t understand this. It’s weird. But I’m moving on…..
I actually like Harper, and Dusty and the Nats are far and away the team I will be rooting for in the playoffs.
Should he have been in the line up? Should they have played? I don’t know and don’t much care.
I just feel bad for the Nats and CAN’T BELIEVE yet another thing has now fallen in place for the Dodgers.
This sucks big time in my book.
yes, the Nats were going to be the road block for the LA in the post season. One guy, especially a position guy, isn’t going to ruin them. Especially if their SP is solid. Let’s see what happens. I’ll be rooting for the Nats MORE now since I think Harper is such a d-bag.
He’s not just a guy, Flav. He’s their best player and one of the best players in baseball. Yeah, yeah, yeah–its baseball and anything can happen, but I now give them about one chance in ten of doing shit in the playoffs.
I’m sure your support will push them over the top the way Bryce can’t now.
in the post season anyone can step up. Harper could be invisible and they could still run the table if Rendon or Goodwin went crazy which can easily happen in the post season. And obviously their SP’s need to keep it going. I am just saying I don’t think they’re done. Harper is far from a *need to have leader* by the way. He’s not a bad leader but they can survive without him. Let’s see what happens……
also, they have a very good offense, it’s not just Harper.
Me too.
Affeldt is the worst. And they’re still having him talk about games he played in. Waste of time. Analyze THIS game don’t blabber about games you were in 3 years ago……
What a play. That was a major league play on both ends.
Absolutely. Both ends.
Hell of a play by Ryder there.
The Nats have suffered a ton of injuries this year, more than any other team in baseball with this current one. But they still have a very good offense and a solid P staff, I think they are still legit contenders. I’m gonna check their future odds and Diggity there is a good chance I’m gonna put my +380 on them to win it all.
If the Giants were 15 games up and this happened to Posey, would we be ripping Bochy for playing him?
Probably…
I mean, now THAT is second guessing. The weather had passed, rain delays happen all the time, Jesus you live in NY you SEE THIS all the time. Baseball is played outdoors, there was nothing weird about tonight except MAYBE the length of the delay. But the field is and always was in great shape. There was zero reason to call this game, games like this get played all the time during the summer across the country. Just not out here is SF
I’m not second guessing playing the game. But the manager will absolutely be second guessed for putting his best player(s) out there in a meaningless game (in these conditions). It’s just human nature, based on the result…
Like I wrote at 9:13, what do you think would be going on here in that situation?
in a meaningless game, sure, I could see some second guessing. But not for playing the game, games like this get played all the time
I would imagine they also felt some pressure to wait it out having been rained out the night before…
lol, good. Gotta keep the tradition going out here
at least he paused before finishing the banana, I can roll with that.
If affeldt never reads another ad on tv again I will be ok with him sticking around for the analyst stuff. I understood maybe every 3rd word he spoke of that ad…..
I also think there is a fairly decent chance Affeldt has had beers tonight. Maybe that’s the norm in the booth I don’t know. But he’s not exactly saying his words clearly
If the Giants don’t come back and win this game my new saber stat of WAB will take a serious hit. .800 to .667. And that will throw the war room at Casa de Flavor into some serious chaos, let me tell you…..
It was raining when Harper got injured. Teams do play in rain sometimes, but it does come with risk of injury.
Osich is so shady. I don’t care how good his stuff is, he’s not worth it.
Nationals announce Bryce Harper’s nickname jersey for next week has been changed to “Brace”.
Get ’em at MLB.com…
someone needs to go with “She Love You”. Right? That’s what mine would be just to fuck with this fucking promo
it’s a good thing Boston is paying the rest of his salary. He seems to have completely lost his ability to hit with power. Has he hit any ball that even threatened to go out of the park since he came back?
They tried to explain “launch angle” to him. He probably thought they said “lunch”…
Crawford is nearing hologram territory……
He’s never been in shape, even when he’s good…
I just don’t get how he’s completely fallen off the map. Twinner would love this, he never thought this guy was gonna be a hitter.
He called him “Mudbug”…
Twin had some gold nicknames that I never appreciated at the time.
Especially for fellow bloggers…
Washington announcers still hoping for good news on Harper…
He’s got a torn ACL and PCL so unless they believe in witchcraft I’m not sure their hope is gonna matter much.
Looks like Dusty will have a hard luck legacy with 4 different teams – each with one distinct memory:
Giants : Blowing the WS after the Ortiz game ball
Cubs: Blowing the playoff series after the Bartman play
Reds: Blowing the best of 5 to SF after being up 2-0
Nats: Blowing the season after the Harper injury
Not that these were all his fault, but Dusty’s in Gene Mauch territory…
From Nats beat writer:
Dusty says Bryce Harper hyperextended his knee. Will get an MRI. Nats will know more tomorrow.
Bryce Harper is up and walking around without much of a limp. Had his leg wrapped below the knee but no brace or anything.
shocker. Drama queen.