THE San Francisco Giants Blog

Facing Our Future

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on August 19, 2017

Take a good look at the Phillies because they are us in the future. It’s nice to be able to beat up on at least one team in the league but if our guys continue to suck next year we will be facing the daunting task of supporting a team that is full of aging players who aren’t very good anymore pulling down big salaries….and with a farm system that is not good. THAT was the Phillies a couple of years ago and here they are today, the worst team in the league, with a bunch of young guys bumbling around and striking out at prolific rates. That’s us in 5 years.

Matt Moore. I don’t know what to do with Matt Moore. Picking up his option seemed like a no brainer at the beginning of the season and then he imploded. If he finishes the year strong, do we trust him going forward? Do we have a choice?

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  1. unca_chuck said, on August 19, 2017 at 7:15 am

    No we don’t. Our ‘aging’ stars ain’t that old.Yet. Short of Pence.

    • Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 8:06 am

      You like belt and Crawford at that price point? And guess what, they ain’t getting better, they getting worse

  2. willedav said, on August 19, 2017 at 8:11 am

    If you have a full season of healthy Bum the FLR and Cueto, and minus injuries to the young guys with potential—Parker Slater and Arroyo– and non concussion seasons from Panik and Belt, these aren’t the Phils. The Giants really have had a ton of injuries and all above are pretty important players; it’s too bad the best of young guys didn’t get a chance to play more and gain ml experience.

    Moore has shown something to build on with 2 really good starts. Add him to back end of the rotation and a pen improved by the addition of Dyson, I think there is a core to build around that can put up respectable numbers and be at least .500 team, especially at home…without hitting a ton of HRs.

  3. willedav said, on August 19, 2017 at 8:52 am

    Craw and Belt have definitely had disappointing seasons, no argument, and big raises are coming to both. Giants have to figure out if they are one offs or not and how to address it.

    Dodgers got Granderson as a rental mostly because they are disappointed in what has happened to Joc Pederson. Cards have suffered through a down year from Carpenter who has been reliable up to now, and a lot of Cubs (um dynasty?) players like Zobrist at .224 aren’t performing up to what they did in 2016.

    Other than LA and Nats, I don’t see teams out of Giants reach. Cards and Brewers 3-4 games over .500 and still in WC hunt. All you have to do is get in and no one in NL ever repeats. Look where Mets are today, barely better than Giants even with Cespedes and dumping players left and right.

    • James said, on August 19, 2017 at 9:50 am

      WD, There’s a pretty big gulf between Belt’s and Crawford’s 2017 numbers. And there’s no reason to believe he would not have finished with a mid-800 OPS again, given that his best months have been August and September. He would almost certainly have reached 25-30 HRs. The big difference between his batting average (and OPS) in 2017 and 2015-16 is the infamous BABIP, which is 50 points below his career average. In other words, relative bad luck. The shift was already being used against him in 2016.

  4. willedav said, on August 19, 2017 at 9:06 am

    I’ve been looking in box scores at how many games are decided by SPs vs. pen and blown saves or late game losses. It’s usually 2 thirds and last night was 22-8. All I’m saying is how important starting pitching is, especially to the Giants. full year of bum and non blister cueto plus blach moore smardz is not a bad rotation if back end can hold up and improve.
    I think the other issues which are certainly there to be sorted out, are secondary.

  5. James said, on August 19, 2017 at 10:06 am

    4 concussions is a lot. Does Belt lose his pay hike, if he is “forced” to retire? Assuming he does come back, the question of his decline is an interesting one. He’ll be 30 next year. Given his talent level, I don’t see him lasting past 32 or 33 as a starter. His control of the strike zone has improved a fair bit the last two years, and, there could be an increase in his HR production. These are the “old player” skills B. James recognized as a broad pattern.

  6. Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 10:56 am

    James what would you say if I said most of Belt’s pristine OPS can be attributed to all his walks? A generalization, I know. But that’s what keeps his OPS so high. If he took half those walks, I’m not going to calculate it, but would we still be saran wrapping your wife’s furniture in that situation?

    • James said, on August 19, 2017 at 11:48 am

      BF, it doesn’t matter how you compile the OPS. If you have a 500 slugging percentage and 350 OBP you have done no more to contribute to the offense than if your OBP is 400 and SP 450.

      Do Belt’s walks count less than others? If the opposing pitcher gives up a walk to Belt, is this somehow not the same damaging sin that all the old school announcers have been railing against forever? I remember TF loved to remind everyone a walk is not as good as a single. This is true; however, in the majority of situations it is. Most of the time you bat with no one on base.

      Remember also that when you walk it boosts your OBP accordingly, but it does not increase your slugging percentage. OPS reflects the lower value a walk brings. If you go 0-2 with two walks, your OPS is 500. If you single once in 3 ABs with a walk, your OPS is 833.

      Whichever way you slice it, Belt’s offensive value is most accurately reflected in his OPS. It’s really not even a matter of debate. I’m cool that you don’t like Belt — I’ve never been that enamored of Pence because he’s the kind of dumbass anti-Bonds hitter that drives me crazy, when he’s not producing. But I don’t question the value reflected in his numbers.

      Finally, I know you’re skeptical that Slumpy would have been more impressive playing elsewhere. Take a look at the HR splits:

      Home: 34
      Away: 64

      There’s an attendant increase in doubles and triples at home. It’s clear that Belt would have been a 25 HR player at a neutral park, at a time when pitching has been dominant, the last two years excepted.

      • Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 12:38 pm

        so what would his OPS be if he took half his walks?

      • James said, on August 19, 2017 at 1:05 pm

        See below for one answer. For 2017, if you take away walks as the result of 30 PA’s, then assume his OBP is 241 and the slugging is 469 for those 30 ABs. That’s an OPS of 710 for those 30 PAs instead of 1000. The 30 PAs are about 7.5 % of his total. 710 X .075 = 53.25, 823 X .925 = 761.25.

        761.25 + 53.25 = 814 OPS

        In other words, he’d lose about 9 points off his season OPS.

    • James said, on August 19, 2017 at 12:12 pm

      Oh, and in a more direct answer to the question, see his walk totals in the 2013 and 2015 seasons.

  7. Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 10:58 am

    before you guys met Loo and photographed him, this is how I imagined him to be:

    • djloo27 said, on August 19, 2017 at 12:36 pm

      I should’ve kept that going…

  8. James said, on August 19, 2017 at 11:09 am

    Moore has 7 or 8 starts left. If he pitches over 50 innings and keeps the hits and walks below 1.1 per nine, I’d probably hold on to him. OTOH, in his two good years– 2012 and 13 — he had better fastball velocity. Since he’s never shown very good command, and the 95 mph heater now represents a threshold below which hitters have an easier time of it, I don’t hold out much hope we’ll see better than a low 4 ERA out of him, very best case scenario.

  9. snarkk said, on August 19, 2017 at 11:46 am

    If Moore flames out most of the season balance, its Beede and Stratton/whomever next year, and use the unused Moore $7 million to help get some lumber. Giants desperately need, and must acquire power in this juiced ball era…

  10. Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 12:40 pm

    Most probably missed this because it’s so common place these days, but yesterday hitters blasted the 2nd most home runs in a single day in baseball history. This power onslaught isn’t going away, the ball is juiced and it’s gonna stay that way. MLB loves it. All of Belt’s walks aren’t going to amount for shit if we don’t start getting some “Joey Gallo action” in our line up

    • sandog said, on August 19, 2017 at 12:55 pm

      I don’t know man. If I made a list of Giants players who under performed this year, Belt would come in probably around 10th on the list. He ain’t one of our main problems in my book. Craw, Pence, Cueto, Melancon, Moore, Panik all rank higher, and that is just off the top of my head.

      • Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 12:59 pm

        agreed. And contrary to popular thought, I don’t hate Belt. I just think he gets way too much credit for his OPS, which is largely driven by his walks. But I don’t like him well enough.

      • James said, on August 19, 2017 at 1:12 pm

        BF, see responses in thread above. Belt drew only 52 walks in 2013 and finished with an 841 OPS. It’s difficult to put up a mid 800s OPS without also having a good slugging percentage.

      • Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 1:25 pm

        his slugging % has remained remarkably consistent throughout his career.

  11. snarkk said, on August 19, 2017 at 12:55 pm

    The juiced ball is actually genius.
    The result of ‘roids without the stigma.
    It’s not cheating because everybody throws and hits the same ball.
    Giants need to shed this conga line crap, and get some mashers…

    • Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 1:00 pm

      I know, I said the same thing a month ago. Juice the balls and then you don’t have to worry about anyone getting suspended for juicing themselves. That obviously still happens but guys are probably less likely to do it now.

  12. Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 1:26 pm

    Ok James, how about this: A team with 4 Belts and 4 Gallo’s. Now THAT would be an epic scoring offense, right?

    • James said, on August 19, 2017 at 1:36 pm

      The talk radio callers would march on ATT with tiki torches.

  13. James said, on August 19, 2017 at 1:54 pm

    Trying to keep it simple, I fucked up Belt’s projected 2017 OPS (see above), if you translated half his walks into ABs. To do a projection, you should assume base and extra base hit results for 33 ABs similar to how he’s hit for the season. You also need to assume 33 extra overall ABs to calculate OBP. So, the upshot is the OBP is reduced to 278, while his slugging % goes up to 489. That’s an OPS of 767.

    • James said, on August 19, 2017 at 2:17 pm

      That’s still not quite right, forgot to add in the 8 extra hits. The OBP is 300 + 489 = 789 OPS. All I can say is, Mrs. James is to blame . . . .

    • djloo27 said, on August 19, 2017 at 2:21 pm

      • James said, on August 19, 2017 at 2:28 pm

        A better use of it this time.

  14. Bill Fleming said, on August 19, 2017 at 2:47 pm

    When I was teaching, my grading scale was
    A +97%-100%
    A 93-96
    A- 90-92
    B+ 87-89
    B 83-86
    B- 80-82
    C+ 77-79
    C 73-76
    C- 70-72
    D+ 67-69
    D 63-66
    D- 60-62
    F 59 and below

    Since the Average OPS of a Major Leaguer is .710 or 71% you can easily grade how the Giants are doing. If they are a great fielder or steal bases (how come that isn’t factored in the OPS?) I will increase their grade slightly, if a poor fielder or baserunner I will lower their score.

    OPS:
    Span .745 C. Factor in his defense/arm C-
    Pence. .699 D+. He really is slipping
    Parker .744 C. Factor in his defense and arm C+ An up and comer?
    Posey .883 B+. Factor in his defense and leadership, a solid A.
    Sandoval .616 D-. At this stage, no help.
    Crawford .646 D. Factor in his great defense, a sold C+, maybe even a B-
    Jones .527 F. Maybe too small a sample size to get a read on this guy yet.
    Tomlinson .626 D-. Factor in his baserunning D+/C-. Not a starter, strictly a role player

    Belt .823 B- Factor in his glovework a sold B. Not sure why the hate on Belt. He is infuriating to watch. We all see his potential. If we had a power hitting 3B, LF, Belt fits in on any lineup.
    Panik .727 C. Factor in his glovework a solid C+/B-. I like Panik and Crawford and Posey up the middle.
    Bumgarner .792 C+. I bet he could play first against certain lefthanded pitchers and I would bat him 5th or 6th.
    Hundley..741 C. A solid backup catcher. With a runner on third and less than two outs I would take Hundley all day
    Slater .773 C+. Was looking good before he got hurt.

    Looking at the above, we need a power hitter at 3B, in LF (can this be Parker?), and in RF.

    • Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 3:00 pm

      that B- for Belt might enrage James. I appreciate the work you did on this post.

      • James said, on August 19, 2017 at 3:18 pm

        I don’t think I’ve ever used an adjective more complimentary than “good” to describe Belt, although last year he reached B+ territory.

      • djloo27 said, on August 19, 2017 at 4:41 pm

        Maybe he plagiarized it…

  15. willedav said, on August 19, 2017 at 6:01 pm

    I look at Belt’s walks the same way I look at Posey’s singles of which he has 86 already far more than anyone else. It’s a function of how he is pitched to, especially because the guys normally behind Posey like Craw or Pence et al suck and don’t scare anyone. We’ll see if Pablo makes any impact hitting there. so the opposing pitcher says take your singles to RF knowing at ATT he can’t hit one out that way.

    Posey has only 13 fewer walks than Belt, and 12 less XBH despite Belt not playing for 2 weeks now.

    In Belt’s case, if pitchers aren’t throwing him strikes, then take the walk. I do think he could go outside the zone to beat the shift on outside pitches but once you start leaning and chasing that’s recipe for problems. And let’s not forget Belt still has highest slugging pct on the team which does also have something to do with his OPS.

    • xoot said, on August 19, 2017 at 6:11 pm

      It’s hard for me to believe that a guy with 350/500 for 850 OPS is equal to a guy with 400/450 for 850. What about context? Which one do you want batting 3rd or 4th?

    • Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 6:12 pm

      his slugging % is ok, it’s sandwiched in between Santana and Herrera. Leading our team in an offensive category is not something to celebrate.

    • James said, on August 19, 2017 at 6:25 pm

      The context matters very little. Why is it hard? OBP actually tracks slightly closer to team run production than slugging percentage.

    • xoot said, on August 19, 2017 at 6:56 pm

      I don’t think those articles answer the question. How can you equate the two separate batters except in a vacuum? If you have the non-slugger batting ahead of the slugger, it seems to me you’ve got the makings for a pretty good LU. But if you have no 500 slugging guy then you may have problems.

      For example, look at the top ten OB % guys right now (according to mlb’s stats). All are .400 on-base or above (except for no. 10 Blackmon who’s at .399). And all of them are way over .500 slugging %, except for one: Buster Posey, .475. All those singles.

      • James said, on August 19, 2017 at 7:10 pm

        To put it simply, if you have line up full of 400 OBP/ 450 SP players, you will have more opportunities to score than the 350/500. The end result will be the same.

      • xoot said, on August 19, 2017 at 7:53 pm

        well, that’s the figurative vacuum I’m talking about–I guess it’s abstraction. You move away from two actual players into the realm of teams full of hypothetical players. An abstract equation summarizing empirical evidence is interesting enough. But it’s tough to equate two very different actual players.

        Two things I take away from this exercise: Buster is a an actual, not a hypothetical, .408/.475 hitter right now. And he is the cleanup batter on the team that owns, by far, the lowest in OPS in mlb.

      • James said, on August 19, 2017 at 8:07 pm

        The stats are about making abstract judgments that eliminate circumstance and contingent numbers. If I want to retain, sign or trade for a player, I want to understand what he’s likely to contribute in the future.

      • xoot said, on August 19, 2017 at 8:23 pm

        right. If you need a top of the LU guy, you want to know certain things; if you want a middle of the order bat you want to know certain things.

  16. djloo27 said, on August 19, 2017 at 6:13 pm

    Good for Denard. In a semi-normal ballpark he gets to jog around the bases…

    • Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 6:19 pm

      i didn’t get an immediate celebration text from Diggity. Maybe he’s surfing or banging some chick or something.

  17. Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 6:31 pm

    • James said, on August 19, 2017 at 6:50 pm

      These are really very good. I mean A-.

  18. willedav said, on August 19, 2017 at 6:45 pm

    Hella AB from blach there, he’s a tough out. Phils pen guys could be in for another workout.

  19. James said, on August 19, 2017 at 7:00 pm

    I never before seen a beard protector like Alfaro’s.

  20. snarkk said, on August 19, 2017 at 7:37 pm

    I heard earlier that Osich has a .519 OBP allowed since the AS break.
    How is that even possible, and the pitcher is still with the big club?
    WTF?…

  21. Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 7:59 pm

    At first glance I thought this was a pic of Span from the future.

    • Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 8:31 pm

      and by *future* I meant next week.

  22. Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 8:00 pm

    I’m gonna be the first one here at the Flap to say Brian Hoyer sucks

  23. snarkk said, on August 19, 2017 at 8:04 pm

    I’m not the first to confirm again that Span is the worst defensive CF in all of MLB. He proves it over and over again…

  24. snarkk said, on August 19, 2017 at 8:05 pm

    Well, Osich comes in and his .519 OBP against just goes up a point or two on his first pitch clobbered for a double and allowing a run.
    Osich suxxxx dong…

  25. snarkk said, on August 19, 2017 at 8:19 pm

    Another Pen implosion.
    This Pen needs a high colonic during the off season.
    It’s not even in the same area code as a playoff quality Pen.
    Osich and Okert should have enough reps by now to not be doing the arson jobs that they do.
    They need to be gone, get another LHer and see if Smith can come back.
    Gearin needs to go, too. Nothing but a journeyman…

    • Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 8:30 pm

      they are going to be putting a LOT of eggs in the basket of that fucking lefty reliever next year.

    • djloo27 said, on August 19, 2017 at 10:58 pm

      Krukow thinks Oshits is having a fine year…

  26. James said, on August 19, 2017 at 8:30 pm

    Haven’t seen a Phillies LFer like that since Luzinski. There haven’t been many players with names more fitting than Greg Luzinski, the way the z suggests a g . . . .

  27. Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 8:31 pm

    i think that is the worst I have ever seen the Niners look in a football game, pre season or otherwise.

  28. Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 8:35 pm

    • djloo27 said, on August 19, 2017 at 10:55 pm

  29. snarkk said, on August 19, 2017 at 8:46 pm

    If anybody thinks this squad will compete for a post season berth next year without a major overhaul, they are probably ownership. LA is primed to win this division for the foreseeable future; and Dbacks and Rockies have more onfield talent than the Giants — it’s not even close…

    • djloo27 said, on August 19, 2017 at 11:23 pm

      We are looking at a 15 year drought like 72-86, with the occasional fluky surprise season when they somehow contend. The next time they win a WS I will be dead. I hope someone comes to my grave to tell me all about it…

  30. Flavor said, on August 19, 2017 at 8:57 pm

    Ahmad Brooks is 3rd on the all time Niner sack list? I would not have guessed he was in the top 15

  31. willedav said, on August 19, 2017 at 9:23 pm

    tying run to on deck circle…not bad for being down 8 going into 9th. Question would be how many of those who scored or drove one in will be part of 2018 roster.

    • willedav said, on August 19, 2017 at 9:25 pm

      tying run at the plate even with the closer in.

  32. willedav said, on August 19, 2017 at 9:37 pm

    Here’s a stat waiting to happen: how many times since 1988 have the Dodgers won the division?
    We already know how many times they’ve won the WS, 0.
    They always get to the playoffs but it’s like watching Andris Biedrins shoot a free throw. you it’s going to suck.

  33. xoot said, on August 19, 2017 at 9:54 pm

    Marshawn Lynch apparently had one run for 6 yards tonight. When he was at Berkeley he could break tackles by moving a foot, well, maybe half a foot, sideways, without losing forward speed. It was miraculous. That miracle faded somewhat over the years. He showed a bit of good lateral movement, however, on his run tonight. He’s still looking powerful. I’d like to see him do well this season. If nothing else, my neighbors in Oakland will be in a better mood.

  34. djloo27 said, on August 19, 2017 at 10:54 pm

    He told his mother that from now on, whenever someone said “nigger” they were just promoting his book…

  35. djloo27 said, on August 19, 2017 at 11:08 pm

    Do you guys have bedtimes?


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