THE San Francisco Giants Blog

Scotty! We Need More Power!

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on October 5, 2017

 

It’s very early. I’ve read this twice. I like it. Will explore it more as the day unfolds. Thoughts? (thanks for doing this. Nice out-of-the-box thinking. And a thread written for me. Bonus).

snarkk said, on October 4, 2017 at 9:03 pm (Edit)

Here’s some stats I did for the NL this season. Power is power is now the name of the game.
I took ERA and HRs per game. Divide the ERA (lower is better) by HRs per game (higher is better). Arguably the team with the lower ERA and higher HRs/game will generate a combined stat that lower is better, a type of pitching/power combo metric. Doghairs are best with a 2.478 lowest pitching/power stat with 4 of top 5 teams with this metric in the post season, and Brewers just missing the Wild Card. The gatekeeping stat line for this metric seems to be around 3.00 to be in contention for a playoff spot. Rocks are the anomaly at 3.8, probably a stadium adjustment factor or look at their overall Slg. Giants are worst with this P/P metric at 5.695. Note the Giants HRs/game at .79 is the worst in the NL by far. The NL average is 1.208 HRs per game, with a standard deviation of .1848 about that mean. The Giants are a full 2.26 standard deviations below the mean HRs/game, far worse than the runner up dogmeat Pirates that are just 1.49 standard deviations below the HR/game mean. Note however, the Giants are in the middle of the pack pitching wise, with a 4.50 ERA. If the Giants HR/game rate stays around the same next year, even if they magically improved their ERA to 3.38 like the Doghairs this season, their pitching / power metric would still be crap and out of the running at 4.278. If they got Stanton and he hit 60 HRs with everybody else hitting the same HRs as 2017, the Giants HR/game rate would spike to 1.16, but they’d still need to magically pare their ERA way down from 4.50 to 3.50 to get their pitching/power ratio down to around the gatekeeping 3.0 postseason P/P metric qualifier level. Upshot: Giants need way more power to get into post season contention for next year. Even 60 additional jacks is unlikely to get it done, even if they have a major improvement in ERA…

Take a look:

P/P ERA HRs/game
Dodgers 2.478 3.380 1.364
Dbacks 2.695 3.660 1.358
Cubs 2.870 3.950 1.377
Brewers 2.893 4.000 1.383
Nats 2.924 3.880 1.327
Cards 3.314 4.010 1.210
Mets 3.623 5.010 1.383
Rockies 3.805 4.510 1.185
Reds 3.824 5.170 1.352
Padres 4.003 4.670 1.167
Marlins 4.025 4.820 1.198
Phillies 4.236 4.550 1.074
Pirates 4.527 4.220 0.932
Braves 4.634 4.720 1.019
Giants 5.695 4.500 0.790

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37 Responses

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  1. djloo27 said, on October 5, 2017 at 8:29 am

  2. zumiee said, on October 5, 2017 at 9:08 am

    The Dodgers and D-Backs at the top of the chart reinforces the reality of how difficult it’s going to be for the Giants to compete in the NL West in the next few years.
    Seriously, if we can catch the Padres next season, that would be a nice goal.

  3. zumiee said, on October 5, 2017 at 9:13 am

    Bummer for the D-Backs that they had to use Ray in the Wild Card game in relief. I wonder what that means for who’s going to start Game 1 vs. the Dodgers.

  4. unca_chuck said, on October 5, 2017 at 9:15 am

    If this is the criteria then we will suck for 5 years. We need everything.

  5. zumiee said, on October 5, 2017 at 9:19 am

    Ah, I see that the D-Backs have announced Taijuan Walker is starting Game 1. That’s a break for the Dodgers, who probably didn’t need a break in the playoffs. So Greinke’s inability to not suck in that game yesterday has already made things more difficult for the D-Backs. Greinke has a lot to prove in these playoffs.

  6. willedav said, on October 5, 2017 at 9:54 am

    Still think it is more important to have better hitters and increase OB and OPS than just pure power and HRs.
    Dodgers led the league in walks and Nats are good hitting team up and down LU.
    Giants had 2 guys only over .800 OPS Belt and Posey, and too many at .700 range (Craw and Pence) and below. This is more important than the HR charts.
    I can see pitching being better and allowing fewer runs, but scoring more to level run differential from -137 will be challenge without incoming talent at 3b/OF.

  7. alleykat69 said, on October 5, 2017 at 10:18 am

    No pitcher has had a quality start of atleast 6 innings in the playoffs.The Bombs are in full force so far!

  8. unca_chuck said, on October 5, 2017 at 10:31 am

    Lower the bar to 10+ HRs and we have 6 guys . . .

    If you call 2002 our year of p0wer, we had 6 guys with 15+ dingers with Bonds and Kent leading the way at 46 and 37 respectively. This follows with:

    Sanders – 23
    Bell -20
    Santiago -16
    Aurilia – 15

    Honorable mention goes to Damon Minor at 10 and Shinjo at 9!

    Our starters were a solid 3.82 ERA and we hit 198 HRs.

    The rest of the math? I don’t know but you look at our numbers this year and they suck.

    128 dingers, 612 ribbies
    Starters were a shitty 4.72 ERA

    We still need 3 OFers, 3 pen guys, and a starter.
    _______________________________________________

    Realistically what do we do? Get JD? Jay Bruce? I’d take quantity over quality at this point. Stanton would be something but he’d get pitched around with no one around him and it ain’t gonna happen anyway. Pluys Belt, Craw, Panik, and Posey need to do better than the shit years the team had. Pence on the bench is also a thing. Span needs to hit the road.

    The SP is set Bummie, Cueto, Samarj, Stratton, and (less is) Moore bringing up the rear, with Blach in the wings when Moores gets his Barry Zito foot injury.

    The pen? Will TFLR, Melancon, Dyson, Suarez, Moronta, Crick. Law gets a chance, but I’d shitcan the rest. Trade Strick and Crick for a bag of dicks? Fuck I don’t know.

  9. sandog said, on October 5, 2017 at 11:30 am

    The plan is that we suck for 3-5 years and build through the draft. Payroll is already maxed out for the foreseeable future and we don’t have shit for trade assets. Draft right handed bats only—unless the fences are brought in. Its going to be a slow, painful process. Gonna be some sparse crowds at ATT and good lord will it get ugly here on this blog. The Dark Ages are upon us!

    • zumiee said, on October 5, 2017 at 11:55 am

  10. Macdog said, on October 5, 2017 at 11:37 am

    In case anyone hasn’t seen/heard this one by now:

    Madison Bumgarner threw more innings by himself in last year’s NL wild card game (9) than all four wild-card starters did this year (7 1/3).

  11. zumiee said, on October 5, 2017 at 12:01 pm

    Pavlovic wasn’t a hard-hitting journalist in that “2017 Giants- What Happened?” show. When all of the brass said “We didn’t see it coming” he should have been all over them about that. But clearly the show was set up to be softball.
    They didn’t see it coming. Before the season, everyone on the Flap nailed what the weaknesses of the team were going into the season. If the brass were brutally honest, they would just say “we knew what the weaknesses were, but the payroll was maxed out, according to the owners. End of story.”
    In the show Baer says the luxury tax is not a hard cap for the Giants. Anyone believe that?

    • unca_chuck said, on October 5, 2017 at 1:10 pm

      Like Hillary’s book of the same title, she and they disavow their actions that led to the clusterfuck.

      Christ. Like it wasn’t out there that the team needed more than they got in the offseason.

      No one is falling on the sword. So they carry on, blinded by their own hubris. Much like Hillary.

  12. zumiee said, on October 5, 2017 at 12:04 pm

    Tomorrow is a huge baseball fest. I won’t see all of them, but 4 playoff games in one day is a very cool thing.

  13. Irish Kevin said, on October 5, 2017 at 12:09 pm

    I have not been out here regularly this year, to much losing and no real answers. So with that said what is everyone’s take on the increase in homers? An undetectable PED? Better hitters. Or the pitching has fallen off? Seems these hitters can hit in any park

  14. unca_chuck said, on October 5, 2017 at 12:31 pm

    It’s the balls. They are different, as noticed by a lot of pitchers who say the seams aren’t as high. Less resistance, further travel. Johnny Cueto says it is the reason for his blisters this year.

  15. Macdog said, on October 5, 2017 at 1:13 pm

    Uh-oh, Nunie hurt as he began running out of batter’s box, didn’t even make it to first base.

  16. Macdog said, on October 5, 2017 at 2:10 pm

    Sox say Nunie re-aggravated right knee injury.

  17. Macdog said, on October 5, 2017 at 3:59 pm

    3 bombs for Altuve!

    • wilcojoe said, on October 5, 2017 at 4:01 pm

      And he probably still won’t win MVP.

  18. alleykat69 said, on October 5, 2017 at 4:02 pm

    Altuve 3 HR’s from the little spark plug!
    Houston’s kicking the Redsox’s asses 8-2 !
    Keep piling it on Stros!
    Last dude to have 3 bombs in a playoff game was the Giants Pablo Sandoval ironically 2 of those were off tonight’s starter Justin Verlander who looks like will have a happier ending with a W tonight!

  19. Flavor said, on October 5, 2017 at 4:06 pm

    Altuve hit 3 X the number of bombs today that posey hit in the last 2 and a half months of the season. Hilarious.

  20. blade3colorado said, on October 5, 2017 at 5:53 pm

    What Sandog said . . . We’re in the wilderness for years.

    Disagree with Zumiee or anyone else about the “Brass” should have seen this coming. That’s hilarious. Sheesh, give me one Flap name who saw this coming? Yes, all of us were concerned about 3rd and outfield. Some, like myself, were concerned about Melancholy . . . We, as well as the front office, saw us building off our almost magical playoff run last season and winning around 90 games or so, with a playoff spot. Right? If not I must have dreamed the Hot Stove season.

    • Flavor said, on October 5, 2017 at 6:14 pm

      nobody saw this coming. But with this season firmly in the books and the obvious writing on the wall of how the game has changed with the juiced ball it would be nice if the brass could FINALLY see what’s going on. Based on everything they are saying to the press, they still have no idea…..

      • blade3colorado said, on October 5, 2017 at 7:00 pm

        Fair comment.

        Regarding the front office, I think their hands are tied – bad contracts have hamstrung much of what they can do. Couple that with players who got old quicker than they or we thought would happen, has impacted their ability to get out of this situation via trade. Finally, our minor league system stinks.

        What are they guilty of? Lying to us about the aforementioned current situation and being in the wilderness for 3-5 years.

      • Flavor said, on October 5, 2017 at 7:12 pm

        their hands are tied if they don’t trade Bum. The dream would be that they send Bum and Posey’s bloated deal to Atlanta. Maybe we could get 4 or 5 blue chip prospects out of them, shed some payroll, win/win for both teams. And then we might have a hard end date to the deep dark wilderness or whateverthefuck Diggity said we’re in for the next 3-5 years.

  21. zumiee said, on October 5, 2017 at 6:39 pm

    I’m not saying we saw 98 losses coming, but there were a lot of concerns expressed that came true.

  22. pawliekokonuts said, on October 5, 2017 at 7:13 pm

    Can anyone confirm this? A few years ago an ex-gf gave me mala beads. They typically have 108 beads, not counting the ‘guru’ bead. A rosary is also said to have 108 beads. There are tons of competing explanations regarding the 108. But get this: she says a baseball has 108 stitches, too! True? or Hindu-urban-MLB legend?

  23. pawliekokonuts said, on October 5, 2017 at 7:15 pm

    love blade’s “Melancholy.” Is that new??

    • Flavor said, on October 5, 2017 at 7:28 pm

      sounds new. Speaking of Melancholy, nobody knew he was injured. Let’s see how he does after he comes back healthy.

  24. Flavor said, on October 5, 2017 at 7:31 pm

    thinking the same thing watching Winston throw passes. Great description.

  25. pawliekokonuts said, on October 5, 2017 at 7:33 pm

    These physicals that accompany signings and trades seem like a pro forma joke. A year or two ago, a deal was scuttled after a physical. Can’t recall; was it a pitcher? Marlins? Twins? That is very rare.

  26. djloo27 said, on October 5, 2017 at 7:35 pm

    It was one year ago tonight, right around now…

  27. zumiee said, on October 5, 2017 at 7:38 pm

    Fox Sports 1 has added more junky graphics on the screen to interfere with watching the game.

  28. djloo27 said, on October 5, 2017 at 8:05 pm

    If you like fitted caps, this place is having a huge sale:

    https://www.final-score.com/

  29. alleykat69 said, on October 5, 2017 at 8:14 pm

    FG kicker Nick Folk will need a police escort leaving the field tonight!
    He’s definitely not gonna be with the team next week..


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