THE San Francisco Giants Blog

Friday Ignition

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on October 6, 2017

Four big games today and I have to admit each of them has a good story line. Houston threatens to push Boston to the brink—the Yankees are also in a mess as Cleveland deftly set up Kluber to go in Game 2.

The Cubs roar into Washington to face Strasburg who has a LOT of pressure on him with the uncertainty of Scherzer’s hammy. I was surprised to see that Strasburg has exactly ONE post season appearance in his entire career–a rather underwhelming go vs the Giants back in 2014.

And then we finish the night off with a guy who has a LOT of post season experience (most of it bad). This will be Kershaw’s 15th post season start. Let’s see if he can keep his ERA under 5.00 in this one…..

Adam Kennedy? I have no recollection of that.

Screenshot 2017-10-06 at 5.37.40 AM

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  1. willedav said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:40 am

    Blade has good argument from last thread–yes there were issues in off season but no one saw SF as being as bad as they were. Injuries, under performance of players they counted on, lack of help from minors and to be fair the better young players all got hurt too.

    My disappointment comes from reaction of FO, which was to do nothing except unload Nunez and Kontos. Nothing fruitful either dumping off bad contracts (which imo would have been doable had SF paid off some salary in a deal) or trying to acquire help at positions of need, esp CF and 3b.

    Now comes smokescreen of excuses and “we trust our core” yada yada. So they are basically back to square one. Kids aren’t power guys except for Parker and unlikely to add enough runs to make up for -137 run differential. They need off season deal to do that and mgmt. seems to be low balling expectations for bringing in quality hitters they desperately need.

    • Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:47 am

      the problem, and this applies to Bochy’s management skills as well, is that when things fall apart they have no pivot plan. They are going back to the only way they know how to do it. And that’s too bad. We are fucked because of it.

    • willedav said, on October 6, 2017 at 8:28 am

      Oh I think you’re right. The smokescreen “this is who we are and how we won in past” imo is just marketing nonsense, as Baer was talking about season ticket holders hanging in and keeping up revenue stream.

      I think they know there isn’t any deal they could make for a Stanton or Ozuna type, and they would be hopelessly out of running for a Machado or Bryce Harper too when they hit FA market. These guys aren’t coming here, and Giants don’t have enough trade chips to match what others do, esp for prospects.

      And they are committed by marketing philosophy to not trading Posey or Bum, or even apparently lesser lights like Crawford. Craw’s O has dropped off a lot from 21 bomb days, he was terrible at plate 2017 and it’s inevitable his D range will trend downward too as he ages. He isn’t a great athlete like Andrelton Simmons. He’s at $15 mil+ for 4 years, ouch.

  2. willedav said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:44 am

    Agree lot of good playoff story lines out there, I just can’t watch until Boston NY and LA are eliminated.

  3. Stan Shell said, on October 6, 2017 at 8:31 am

    Yesterday BF proposed trading both BUM and Posey. I think that is a way out of the 5 year hole we’ve speculated about. They are going to have to blow up whatever this team is now. New faces, new talent and move on. What the hell is the joy in seeing Posey go down hill and Bum pitch a great game every 5 days if the rest of the team/season is for shit.

    A can’t miss college player or two in the draft, plus 2 or 3 other good young players obtained in trades and we could have a more pleasant season by 2019-20. That’s the quickest way out of this mess.

    For those of you that saw last night’s game- -now you know why my comments are on the pessimistic side. I’ve been following that piece of shit team since 1978 when I moved to Florida’s Gulf Coast. BTW, that state is possibly more beautiful than California (no mountains/snow though), but about 40% of Floridians are knuckle-dragging, red-neck fascist dopes. The Bucs are well placed.

    Trade Posey, Bum and Cueto for young studs.

    • Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 10:00 am

      I said it was a “hard” way out. As in, it’s still going to take 3-5 years but if we stockpiled 4-5 blue chips for those 2 guys we would be set to go in 2021ish. If we don’t stockpile the farm system with GOOD prospects we’re going to suck in 3-5 years and continue to suck after that.

      • alleykat69 said, on October 6, 2017 at 10:05 am

        So basically your saying is that we all know is that they will continue to SUCK!!

      • Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 11:28 am

        i think so. If they don’t do something drastic like trade Bum. There is little to nothing in the pipeline. If we don’t stockpile NOW then we will be left to try to do it with draft picks and what do you hit on a year with a draft pick? Maybe one stud? If you’re lucky? And he’s 3-4 years away on draft day.

  4. alleykat69 said, on October 6, 2017 at 8:32 am

    It’s a bummer the Astros are in the AL now, cause the Indians &Stros would be the matchup I would want to see! 2 young hungry teams with tons of talent. Now their just have to hopefully face each other in the champion ship series..

  5. Macdog said, on October 6, 2017 at 11:40 am

    Is this the blueprint for the Giants to follow? How the Astros were built:

    https://tinyurl.com/y7gvqn8w

    • xoot said, on October 6, 2017 at 12:44 pm

      mlb allowed Houston to tank for a while and to rake in revenue sharing money and draft picks in return for the new owners agreeing to two things: they’d move to the AL West, and while they used the revenue sharing money to pay down their debt (used to buy the team) they’d also build a strong team. Houston did a brilliant job of finding Latin American players, drafting (Correa’s Puerto Rican, but PR being USA is subject to the draft), signing, trading, etc. Every year Houston improved. They’re better in several very important ways this season than last, but the one stat that leaps out: last year they struck out nearly 1500 times; this year, the total was just over 1000.

      The Giants are in a completely different situation than was Houston when the owners, et al, engineered the Astros’ astonishing turnaround.

    • xoot said, on October 6, 2017 at 12:47 pm

      at one point during the Astros transition their entire season payroll was equal to A Rod’s

  6. alleykat69 said, on October 6, 2017 at 11:49 am

    So does anyone think they will make a play on that dude Otani pitcher/slugger if he comes over? More BS smokescreen when they will say damm got outbid again! They need a Young possible star to build around, plus the extra ticket sales from the Chinatown base you would think Baerass would go for!!

  7. pawliekokonuts said, on October 6, 2017 at 11:51 am

    Bob Robertson. Killed us in 1971. Am I wrong, Loo?

    • zumiee said, on October 6, 2017 at 11:58 am

      I remember it well, even as a 10 year old. It was my first year as a Giants fan. When the Giants got eliminated by the Pirates, I remember thinking: “Well, that’s alright, we’ll get it next year.”
      Oops.

      • unca_chuck said, on October 6, 2017 at 12:09 pm

        No kidding. I went to game 1 that year. Perry’s win. Chris Speier’s first year as well iirc. Back in the olden days when we signed local talent.

      • pawliekokonuts said, on October 6, 2017 at 12:38 pm

        Crawdad is a local boy.

      • unca_chuck said, on October 6, 2017 at 5:07 pm

        So was Tullo.

  8. Stan Shell said, on October 6, 2017 at 12:04 pm

    The Asian market for players should be one that the Giants dominate. Often those guys will go for the Yankees because of the reputation. Otherwise, they should favor an area that is most comfortable to them. Certainly, SF should be at an advantage when compared to Atlanta or Texas. Of course, if the Asian teams sell to the highest bidder this post is just another dry wet-dream.

  9. Stan Shell said, on October 6, 2017 at 12:06 pm

    Wasn’t Mashie the first Asian player in the ML?

    • pawliekokonuts said, on October 6, 2017 at 12:37 pm

      Masanori Murakami. As I relate in CHASING WILLIE MAYS, I’m pretty sure I was at his debut game.

  10. unca_chuck said, on October 6, 2017 at 12:08 pm

    Cleveland looks like they are the team to beat out of the AL. I’m fine with them or Houston. Not really thrilled with anyone out of the NL for a change.

  11. Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 1:46 pm

    I’m torn on who to root for in the Cubs/Nats series. I think Bryce Harper is such a douch but I would like to see Dusty get a WS win finally. I have no feelings one way or the other about the Cubs

    • sfsarge said, on October 6, 2017 at 2:33 pm

      I am way past hearing the east coast media fellating the Cubs on a nightly basis. I’d love to see Dusty finally get one. And I have really softened my stance on Harper. Beating them in the playoffs worked wonders as far as that’s concerned. I’m down for a Nats-Indians WS.

      • Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 4:00 pm

        I barely listen to national media so I haven’t gotten sick of it like you have. I can’t watch espn or mlb network unless there’s a game on.

  12. Macdog said, on October 6, 2017 at 1:53 pm

    Boston, you have a problem.

  13. Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 3:27 pm

    bombs, bombs and more bombs. Kluber BLASTED. Starting pitching taking a beating in this PS. Or I should say, the juiced ball is taking a beating.

  14. gianthead said, on October 6, 2017 at 3:44 pm

    Adam Kennedy..juicer no???

    • Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 3:59 pm

      i barely remember him. Without looking up his stats I’d just assume he had a crazy once-in-a-lifetime night

      • djloo27 said, on October 6, 2017 at 4:12 pm

        Like Kevin Elster…

  15. gianthead said, on October 6, 2017 at 4:01 pm

    For Kat and Stan…dont ask me to explain it but there is apparently a cap on foreign players (Japan specific?) So Otani can only cost up to $8 mill on transfer fee and salary combined.

    There will be no bidding war for him. It will be be all about trying to sell how much laid back the SF/Bay Area will be to him instead of NY and Boston and how Bay Area is more heavy Asian than LA along our recent WS championships reflect winning culture yada yada. But in the end will come down to whomever agrees to let him hit and pitch and I am all in to do whatever it takes to get him…

  16. gianthead said, on October 6, 2017 at 4:03 pm

    One thing I never factored about pursuing Giancarlo or Ozuna ( Whom I wanted last season), the Marlins may have laughed at the minor league level of talent they have put on the table…

  17. unca_chuck said, on October 6, 2017 at 4:54 pm

    Unreal. Lindor of Cleve just got a grand slam in the bottom of the 6th. 8-7 Yanks.

  18. Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 4:56 pm

    wow more home runs, this can’t be the way to win baseball games. Shocking I tell you, shocking. Let’s load up on defense and guys who take walks so our OPS is inflated and then we’ll be able to compete. lqtm

    • unca_chuck said, on October 6, 2017 at 5:04 pm

      Planning on digging up the Babe? Who do we get beyond JD and JBruce?

      • Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 5:35 pm

        yeah, it’s more of just an acknowledgement of the state of the game today. We are pretty fucked in the short term. I’m just tired of hearing about OPS guys who are mostly walk-driven as the way to build your team today. That’s Moneyball shit and it’s been a proven failure.

      • xoot said, on October 6, 2017 at 5:42 pm

        The top nine ops team this year are in the PS. Boston is the outlier

      • xoot said, on October 6, 2017 at 5:48 pm

        I think slugging percentage is big this year

      • Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 6:14 pm

        you can’t mash OBP and slugging % together. It’s fucking stupid and the simplest way to try to measure something. I agree with you, slugging % is NOW BIG.

      • djloo27 said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:11 pm

        Billy Williams SP in 1968 was exactly .500…

      • xoot said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:30 pm

        You mentioned ops, which mashes. Ob alone is entirely different. Only reason it worked briefly for beane is because he used it to fill in the gaps when he had three excellent starters and rwo young Latino hotshots, Chavez and tejada, under long term control.

  19. unca_chuck said, on October 6, 2017 at 5:04 pm

    Trade Bummie for Stanton?

    • Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 5:31 pm

      Neg. Just because of the $$$ you take on. I’d trade Bummie for prospects. We need a huge reset. Not gonna get that drafting.

  20. Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 5:05 pm

    I have a great sense of pride in watching this post season even though the Giants are horrible right now and will be for years to come. Those 3 beauties fucking saved us. It is impossible for a Dodger fan to talk shit to me these days and for me to give a single fuck. There’s literally nothing that can be said that I would give a shit about.

  21. unca_chuck said, on October 6, 2017 at 5:22 pm

    Glad to see Bwoston go down in flames. I’d love to see the Yanks follow suit.

  22. unca_chuck said, on October 6, 2017 at 5:56 pm

    So, we are getting our home run power from Bummie? I don’t know. I get that other people’s prospects are likely better than ours, but trades are just as big a shot in the dark.

    If they were serious about getting HR power, and if that IS the answer, then dump money on JD and JB and hope Belt, Posey, Crawfish and Co get off the schneid next year.

    • Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 6:12 pm

      if they want a shot in the dark to win now, I agree. But I’m with the guys who think this is the 3-5 year dark ages. But that’s a long fucking time, lol. So let’s try to tighten up that 5th year. We have zero chance of competing in 2022 if Baer and his band of yahoos keep nudging along the company line of defense and hollow OPS. They need to trade their only 2 trade pieces NOW (Bum and Posey although Posey is not coveted at all with his deal unless it’s a clueless team like Atl) if they want to start stockpiling real blue chip prospects, not all this “Slater” bullshit…….

      • Macdog said, on October 6, 2017 at 6:53 pm

        The more these starting pitchers shit their pants in these playoff games, the more enticing MadBum must be looking to these teams.

  23. xoot said, on October 6, 2017 at 6:03 pm

    Htf does Diaz qualify to ump in the PS?

  24. unca_chuck said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:19 pm

    YES!!!

  25. Macdog said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:23 pm

    Meanwhile in D.C., it’s the same ‘ol same ‘ol for poor Dusty.

  26. unca_chuck said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:32 pm

    Posey is verrrrry slim to be moved. Mainly because the Giants would have to eat a large percentage of the $84 mill owed him. Likely most of it. Bummie is the most attractive piece. Panik is a distant second.

  27. djloo27 said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:37 pm

    They’re gonna crucify Gerardi here…

    • Macdog said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:42 pm

      And deservedly so.

  28. xoot said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:43 pm

    OPS is a very impressive leveler. 10 teams made the PS this year (really?). The top 9 in OPS made it. Boston was the outlier, with their low HR (etc.) total. WAR, OPS and WHIP are the go to stats these days, the places to start.

    • Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:51 pm

      WAR has lots of holes in it. OPS is now driven by slugging percentage not walks for all those 9 teams.

      • xoot said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:53 pm

        mlb should pick the all stars based on WAR per position at June 30. Close enough. 😉

      • xoot said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:54 pm

        and 9 out of 10 OPS team leaders in the PS–whatever’s driving it is ringing in

      • Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:57 pm

        WAR isn’t a bad stat if you’re looking at entire year production. I think it’s funny that my WAB (Wins Above Belt) came in higher than the WWB (wins with Belt). So much for the replacement player ruining wins for the Giants this year.Two months worth of a season, make whatever you want of that.

      • xoot said, on October 6, 2017 at 8:03 pm

        I’m not disagreeing with you, and the Belt stats do raise some funny questions. I guess I’m just ready to admit that the newer, if imperfect, stats, offer more than BA, HRs, RBIs, ERA, etc. And I repeat: I think Moneyball was bullshit, based on ON BASE % only, and successful only briefly as a gap-filler in a line up stocked with first-rate players who wouldn’t’ve shown up on on an OB% graph.

      • Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 8:12 pm

        I am not an old stat guy. I study all of the peripheral stats today. But they fail when it comes to predicting futures. They are good at telling you what’s happened if everything is equal and all you look at is the season totals. There is a lot more than season totals. A lot happens within a season……

      • xoot said, on October 6, 2017 at 8:41 pm

        predicting futures for betting on tomorrow’s games is a lot different exercise than predicting futures for signing players for next season and beyond. It’s easy to say, but not so easy to prove: The more you know, the better your chances are.

  29. Macdog said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:56 pm

    So who starts Game 2 for the Snakes?

  30. xoot said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:57 pm

    I “hate” Justin Turner, always have. Grizzly Adams mofo. I’m pulling for the Astros. Great team.

  31. unca_chuck said, on October 6, 2017 at 7:59 pm

    Damn. Walker may not get an out.

  32. Flavor said, on October 6, 2017 at 8:08 pm

    I mean come on, if we’re counting on the Dbacks to oust them….come on. Anyway, it’s one game, one series that will be forgotten by everyone. There are a couple of every good teams in this post season. One of them will take down the Dodgers. This is predestined fact…..

  33. zumiee said, on October 6, 2017 at 8:27 pm

    Epic flop by Walker.

  34. xoot said, on October 6, 2017 at 9:14 pm

    hard to imagine watching this bums/dbags game to the end. I’ll be following the Astros, however. One detail I forgot–not only did Houston reduce its SOs from about 1500 in 2016 to about 1000 in 2107, their total BB remained almost the same, right about 500. So they didn’t cheaply reduce SOs by simply working the counts. They engineered the improvement across the board. Helluva team.

  35. wilcojoe said, on October 6, 2017 at 9:22 pm

    I took today off to try and take my eight year old to the Astros game. The prices on StubHub only went up as the morning turned into afternoon and scalpers were hopelessly trying to find sellers. Thus it was a no go. Instead I decided to cash in some of my Marriott reward points and got us a room at the new Marriott Marquis next to the stadium. We spent the day watching the game from Craig Biggios sports bar and swimming in the hotel’s Texas shaped lazy river. In the end, I saved a shit load of money and had more fun than had we actually gone to the game.

    • zumiee said, on October 6, 2017 at 9:39 pm

      Very cool!

  36. willedav said, on October 6, 2017 at 10:07 pm

    there is another way to win baseball games beside just hitting bombs…that would be preventing them, as Indians comeback was also fueled by pen guys throwing 8 and two thirds shutout ball and holding the Yanks down, finally.

  37. willedav said, on October 6, 2017 at 10:14 pm

    How many runs Cubs allow today?
    Astros team ERA after 2 games?
    I don’t care how much baseball has allegedly changed, you stop the other team from scoring, which all the better teams in NL did, makes it a lot easier.

    Look at it this way: if the Giants, with their POS offense (dead last in HRs and led by Belt with 18) had allowed as few runs as the Dodgers did ( 580 instead of 776), they would have likely been over .500 and close to play off spot.

  38. unca_chuck said, on October 6, 2017 at 10:20 pm

    Getting interesting now.

  39. unca_chuck said, on October 6, 2017 at 10:20 pm

    ahhhh pfffffffffft.

  40. willedav said, on October 6, 2017 at 10:25 pm

    Most sluggers have tremendous OB pcts too; it’s part of the package of being a total hitter. Votto scored over 100 runs to go with his other monster stats.
    Dodgers, top team in OPS, led the league in walks. With all the bombs that’s going to equal a lot of runs, because it’s hard to hit 3 run bombs or salamis unless runners actually do get on base, right?

    • zumiee said, on October 6, 2017 at 11:23 pm

      The Dodgers get a lot of walks because pitchers are afraid of the Dodgers’ power.

  41. willedav said, on October 6, 2017 at 10:31 pm

    5 of top 10 slugging pct guys in NL were also in top 10 for OB, and 7 of those OB guys were top 10 for OPS.
    Votto
    Turner
    Bryant
    Harper
    Golds
    Rendon
    Freeman

    Outside of Stanton that’s all the best hitters in the entire league. Blackmon was in there too.

  42. blade3colorado said, on October 6, 2017 at 11:06 pm

    Giants formula is pitching and defense, with hitting being key – only insofar as a high OPS is concerned (i.e., scoring runs). This was, is, and will be the formula for success for the Giants going forward IMO.

    Strikeouts are at an all-time high and, not so coincidentally, scoring is well below the heights it reached in the 1990s and 2000s.

    Are bombs important? Moot question for the Giants because they have no one to hit them and are unlikely to sign sufficient players to hit bombs where it matters, much less near the league team average.

    • blade3colorado said, on October 6, 2017 at 11:24 pm

      Connie Mack said pitching is 75% of baseball. I recall a saber article saying that it was approximately 75-90%. I think both figures are too high. Here’s some other opinions from old timers in the game:

      No other factors are important – good pitching is the key.” (Don
      Kessinger, former manager, White Sox).
      “Pitching and control dominate the game.” (Bob Fontaine, G.M.
      Padres).
      “Pitching by far is the best defense and offense.” (Bob Kennedy,
      G.M. Cubs).
      “Pitching is a major part and without it you are a second division
      club.” (Henry Peters, G.M. Orioles).
      “Pitching is #1. If your pitcher pitches a shut-out you can’t lose!”
      (Al Campanis, G.M. Dodgers).

      • zumiee said, on October 7, 2017 at 12:43 am

        Kershaw gave up 4 HRs tonight. The ball is juiced.

  43. blade3colorado said, on October 7, 2017 at 1:02 am

    Agree Zum. However, it’s my take that Kershaw has peaked. Injuries and miles on that arm are catching up with him. Next season it begins ——-> down hill slide.


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