THE San Francisco Giants Blog

When The Odds Are Stacked Against You

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on March 24, 2018

I still can’t get over the probability of this. Having 2 pitchers hurt in consecutive days is bad enough luck. But if you had tasked me with this: “Flavor, I’ve got some bad news for you. Two pitchers from the pitching staff are definitely getting hurt over the course of the next two days. There are 13 names in this hat. Whichever two you draw out are the ones who get hurt. Go.”

I could have picked out any two. Gearrin and Blach. Dyson and Fernandez. Watson and Osich. But no. Bum and Smarge. Me pulling those 2 names out of a hat, exactly those 2 names, has a ONE PERCENT PROBABILITY!!!! That is absolutely insane and I can’t get over it. And that’s to say nothing of what the actual odds (much less than 1%) were of those 2 guys getting hurt on consecutive days because the odds of TWO GODDAMN PITCHERS GETTING HURT ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS ALMOST NEVER HAPPENS ANYWAY!!!!!!!!!

Two trips ago in Reno I was playing Let it Ride and I got dealt a straight flush (3 handed) back to back. Back to motherfucking back. Later we calculated the odds of that happening to be 250,000-1.

And for some reason, this morning, the odds of exactly Bum and Smarge being the two pitchers who got hurt on BACK2BACK days feels much longer to me than 250,000-1. I am still having trouble processing all of this….

But I’m not going to sit here and say “we’re fucked” because we aren’t yet. We still have a revamped offense. We still play half our games in a pitchers park. Our defense, at least in the infield, is gold glove caliber all the way around the horn.

It’s just incredibly disappointing. It’s not even April yet…..

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79 Responses

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  1. willedav said, on March 24, 2018 at 8:10 am

    Bum and Cueto only won 12 games last year combined. I figured another 15 maybe this season which would put them close to .500. Someone else will have to make up that difference.
    and yeah April sched is rough.

  2. Flavor said, on March 24, 2018 at 8:14 am

    non-Giants related. This is funny. Some chick just randomly screams Alanis Morrisette lines at her husband and films it. Is this what being married is like cause this looks like fun.

    • snarkk said, on March 24, 2018 at 11:40 am

      Good luck to their daughter…

      • gianthead said, on March 24, 2018 at 2:24 pm

        She is probably a lot of fun if you know what I mean…

    • blade3colorado said, on March 24, 2018 at 2:30 pm

      I can’t get past that wort under her nose.

  3. Flavor said, on March 24, 2018 at 8:50 am

    32 years ago today Van Halen released 5150. Can you believe it’s been 32 years? Time is slipping away

  4. blade3colorado said, on March 24, 2018 at 9:02 am

    No worries. Giants will win it all.

  5. Flavor said, on March 24, 2018 at 9:12 am

    This has got to be really hard on Bochy. He was claiming to be renewed and invigorated for this season. His pitching staff is now in shambles before game 1. Ouch

  6. willedav said, on March 24, 2018 at 9:17 am

    watching Nova last night, down by 6 60-54 to West Va and then shot lights out. 13-24 from 3 and 23-27 from FT, 85%.

    3 Juniors do most of Vil scoring. Tech has senior leadership too and 3 of B 12 teams still in it. Just think it’s an extra advantage to have guys on floor who have 100+ games of experience behind them.

    Every time some team is eliminated you see more underclass guys declare for draft. Just no way a lot of them make it to NBA; hope they have a back up plan

  7. zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 9:17 am

    I actually saw Alanis Morrisette in concert at the Warfield. I went with someone else who was a big fan. I’ve never owned any of her albums. The concert was actually pretty good. It rocked harder than I thought it was going to.

  8. zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 9:21 am

    Van Halen is a band that was always lost on me. I did like the songs “Jump” and “Panama” that came out in the mid ’80s.

  9. blade3colorado said, on March 24, 2018 at 11:12 am

    Blanco gone. Good. This “Back To The Future” crap was dumb. Tommlinson, can still be optioned, so I’m thinking Josh Rutledge may have the inside track on the utility job.

    • snarkk said, on March 24, 2018 at 11:28 am

      Time to pull the pins out of the Blanco bobblehead…

  10. sandog said, on March 24, 2018 at 11:26 am

    She actually does a pretty good Alanis voice. I think that one big album of hers is pretty damn good and I remember one of my wives playing another one of her albums that sounded good to me as well.

    Zumie–no love for old Van Halen? That’s where all the gold is in my book. Dirty Movies, Unchained, Beautiful Girls…… I love Panama, but for me, Jump is WAY down the list.
    GIve “Unchained” a listen and let me know what you think. I think “Round and Round” by RATT (which I love and i know you like as well) is a bit of an Unchained rip-off when it comes to the main riff.

    The Bum news is such a buzzkill. I’m trying to buy into the “long season” theory, but it ain’t easy. No longer feeling 87 wins, that’s for sure. I’ll say my new number is 82.

    Hitting the road in a few minutes to head up north to see friends and family. Going to Kings/Celtics tomorrow with friends, which should be fun. First time for me at Golden One Center.

    • zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 11:50 am

      “Unchained” is a good one. I hear the similarity to the other song, but enough difference to keep band lawyers from getting agitated. 🙂 It’s real hard to win those types of lawsuits anyway.
      Some artists are so successful they don’t care. Neil Young’s riff for “Mr. Soul” is straight from the Stones’ “Satisfaction,” but the Stones didn’t seem to care.

      • zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 11:51 am

        Have a great time at the Kings game!

      • Flavor said, on March 24, 2018 at 12:14 pm

        if he can get in…hope the doors aren’t locked this time!

      • sandog said, on March 24, 2018 at 12:52 pm

        Thanks Zum. And at a $150 each for lower bowl seats, we’re getting into that damn arena!
        I’m not a big cover song guy, but I think Rush does a good Mr. Soul cover.

  11. snarkk said, on March 24, 2018 at 11:30 am

    Parker gone.
    Somebody dogmeat might pull him off waivers.
    I wouldn’t mind seeing him play in a bandbox park for 350 ABs or so. He’d hit some homers in between 150 Ks…

    • djloo27 said, on March 24, 2018 at 3:43 pm

      dirtnrocksnomo said, on March 20, 2018 at 9:26 am (Edit)

      I guess they’re scared of having another Duvall success story for another team and are waiting to try and sneak Parker (who sucks) through waivers at the end of spring which is stupid because he sucks.

  12. snarkk said, on March 24, 2018 at 11:32 am

    This has to mean Duggar makes the club. I’ll give FO credit for rolling the dice. They value defense, and he can glove it, with speed. If he can turn into a modern day Kenny Henderson, I’m good…

    • sandog said, on March 24, 2018 at 12:49 pm

      I don’t think Duggar is ever drive in 100 runs like Kenny Henderson did. I’ll be happy if he can be Dan Gladden, but i don’t see it happening his year. Didn’t he spend most of last year in San Jose?
      Ok, I’m leaving now.

      • snarkk said, on March 24, 2018 at 1:53 pm

        Yeah, it’s an “if’ he turns into Kenny redux. It would be just fine if the “if” turned into reality…

      • Flavor said, on March 24, 2018 at 3:48 pm

        who the hell is Kenny Henderson?

  13. zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 1:44 pm

    The A’s.

    “Oakland A’s president Dave Kaval continued his attempts to drum up a good natured rivalry between the Bay Area’s two baseball team’s on Saturday, announcing via press release that San Francisco Giants fans will be charged $50 for parking, $20 more than A’s fans, at the Oakland Coliseum this season. Giants fans can get a $20 discount, however, by yelling ‘Go A’s’ at the parking gates. The announcement comes a day before the two teams are scheduled to square off in an exhibition game in Oakland on Sunday.”

  14. snarkk said, on March 24, 2018 at 2:05 pm

    Paying even $30 to park at that dump is an abomination…

  15. wilcojoe said, on March 24, 2018 at 2:19 pm

    Let it Ride is my go to table game. I have never in my life been dealt a straight flush and have only seen it done a few times at tables I have sat at. To this day the most amazing thing I have seen is a gal get it twice in the course of a couple hours (this was in Reno many years ago) For you to do it in back to back hands is nothing short of mind blowing. Hats off to your brother. I am assuming you played the three card bonus hand as well?

    • Flavor said, on March 24, 2018 at 3:14 pm

      Yes, I $10 on the 3 card bonus, $5 on the rest (I always play it that way, I’m more into the rush of the 3 cards dealt to me than I am in trying to hit some miracle hand with the dealers cards). I hit a flush with first hand, nothing the second. But check this out: the first one dealt to me was my first ever. As I was telling my buddy sitting next to me about it (it was his first time playing) I GET DEALT A SECOND ONE!!!! My first two ever, back2back and I’ve been playing LIR for 15 years

    • Flavor said, on March 24, 2018 at 3:42 pm

      and Wilco, to be clear I didn’t hit a 5 card straight flush. I just got a 3 card straight flush (40-1) dealt to me twice in a row.

      • wilcojoe said, on March 24, 2018 at 5:39 pm

        Gotcha, I was thinking it was for all 5 cards. Still impressive nonetheless. Yeah the 3 card Bonus is the best thing that every happened to that game. Until they added that, you might as well have been playing the slots.

        Now that I know you play LIR, I am going to have to make it out to Reno one of these days to meet up with you. At the casinos in Louisiana, the minimum limit is never less than $10 on LIR and 3 Card Poker and on the weekdays it’s $15. That’s $60 a hand (assuming you didn’t pull back two bets) on LIR and the same on 3 Card Poker (assuming you “play” the hand and bet the 6 six card bonus). That’s high limit bullshit. Damn I miss Reno.

      • wilcojoe said, on March 24, 2018 at 5:40 pm

        Weekends not weekdays.

      • Flavor said, on March 24, 2018 at 6:19 pm

        you must come to Reno. That would be a lot of fun. I’ll be there for a couple of weeks in July this year.

  16. mrsprtdude said, on March 24, 2018 at 2:35 pm

    5150 32 years. A lifetime ago. I was so curious what they would sound like without DL Roth. “Why can’t this be Love was so different yet so good. Remember hearing it for the 1st time like it was yesterday. I was with friends on a road trip to Tahoe!
    Now my own kids are around 20 (22 & 19). I wonder if any music or bands coming out now that they like will still be memorable or being played and mentioned like this in 2050???

    Funny that I’d rather type about music the SF Giants at this moment. Ad in Curry’s grade 2 MCL sprain..(A 4-6 week injury at best for most people) and it hasn’t been a great week in bay Area sports:(

  17. zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 4:05 pm

    Who is Kenny Henderson?
    The leftfielder on the Giants ’71 playoff team.
    A typical batting order that season was:
    Bonds, rf
    Fuentes, 2b
    Mays, cf
    McCovey, 1b
    Henderson, lf
    Gallagher, 3b
    Dietz, c
    Speier, ss
    Pitcher

    There were several variations. For example, Bonds batted 5th sometimes, and Speier would bat leadoff if I remember correctly.

    • zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 4:07 pm

      Hal Lanier started the season as the starting shortstop before the rookie Speier took over.

  18. djloo27 said, on March 24, 2018 at 4:19 pm

    I remember seeing Ken Henderson’s ML debut on TV vs. Mets and wondering who the hell he was.
    Tito Fuentes, too later that same year. I didn’t remember that KH had a couple of darn good years as a Giant – especially 1970. I always remembered him as kind of a non-descript below average back-up. He was better than that looking at the stats…

    • Flavor said, on March 24, 2018 at 4:21 pm

      lol, as I was just dissing on him based off his stats…..

  19. Flavor said, on March 24, 2018 at 4:20 pm

    thanks. I looked up this Henderson dude’s stats and I am hopeful that Dugger can do better than that guy. Also, San Diggity, that guy never had 100 RBI’s in a season

  20. zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 4:35 pm

    Henderson had a 16 year major league career which is very impressive.
    He was a switch-hitter, which helped his value.

  21. zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 4:46 pm

    Fuentes had no business batting second in that lineup. His OBP was not very good.
    But in that era, he had what people looked for in a #2 hitter. A scrappy middle-infielder who seemed to have good bat-control.

    • zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 4:47 pm

      Plus he was a switch hitter.

    • zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 4:51 pm

      As a Giants’ Spanish language broadcaster I’m sure he got three championship rings. That’s very cool.

    • djloo27 said, on March 24, 2018 at 5:25 pm

      I think they looked for that until about 5 years ago…

  22. alleykat69 said, on March 24, 2018 at 4:50 pm

    Hal Lanier was the Johnny Lemaster of his time..Like both all glove no stick!
    And what a great time it was when this slick positive attitude kid,steps in as a Rook and played solid SS by the name of Chris Speier who helped that team get to the postseason, eventually losing to Pittsburgh..

    • zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 4:55 pm

      Yeah, my first year as a Giants fan. I wonder if that team, and Lon Simmons, hadn’t hooked me in, if I would have ended up an A’s fan when they started winning championships the next season.
      Yikes. Listening to Monte Moore. Double yikes.

    • djloo27 said, on March 24, 2018 at 5:21 pm

      Mays used to call him “Maxie” after his dad (a pitcher) who was a teammate of Willie’s early in his career…

      • djloo27 said, on March 24, 2018 at 5:39 pm

        Does that count as a fun fact?

      • zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 5:50 pm

        It does.

  23. Macdog said, on March 24, 2018 at 5:40 pm

    Looks like Blach will be the Opening Day starter.

    Congrats to Loyola-Chicago, going to the Final Four, what a great run.

    • wilcojoe said, on March 24, 2018 at 5:43 pm

      Ty Blach as opening day starter? Let that sink in. Good god.

      • blade3colorado said, on March 24, 2018 at 5:48 pm

        I was looking forward to Bum vs. Kershaw . . . Now, it’s Blach. Good God is right.

      • djloo27 said, on March 24, 2018 at 5:51 pm

        If you had any doubt, we are officially in the abyss…

  24. zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 5:54 pm

    Not to be too harsh, but using Cueto against Kershaw was likely a loss anyway; whereas Cueto pitching the next day has a much higher chance of being a win, and avoiding a sweep. I just want to avoid a sweep in that first series.

    • Macdog said, on March 24, 2018 at 6:36 pm

      I agree with this. Better to have Cueto start the 2nd game and maybe the Giants can score off LA’s #2.

  25. zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 5:59 pm

    If offered Loo’s 9-21 Giants’ April right now, would you take it? I would be very tempted.

  26. wilcojoe said, on March 24, 2018 at 6:14 pm

    At this point, I really would like to see the Giants get Collin McHugh or Brad Peacock from the ‘Stros. Houston’s starting pitching is so loaded that both those guys are starting the season in the pen. I think Peacock had a career year last year and his price might be too high. McCugh on the other hand has become an afterthought. An afterthought that would easily become the Giants #2 starter behind Cueto. The dude isn’t sexy but his numbers speak for themself and that’s having played in a bandbox for the last four seasons.

    • Flavor said, on March 24, 2018 at 6:20 pm

      I’d be down with McHugh. He’s kinda maddening as a daily option seeming to have serious blow up games but other times he’s lights out for 7-8 innings. And any pitcher coming from Houston to SF is automatically going to get better.

  27. zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 6:53 pm

    Giants/Sacramento game is on local NBC affiliate.

  28. blade3colorado said, on March 24, 2018 at 7:06 pm

    Curry out until probably the playoffs, after an MRI showed a Grade 2 MCL sprain in his left knee,

  29. Macdog said, on March 24, 2018 at 7:07 pm

    From TheAthleticSF writer Melissa Lockard: The Giants will use four starters until April 10.

    I think Blade brought up skipping the #5 starter yesterday in the first couple weeks, so there ya go.

    • blade3colorado said, on March 24, 2018 at 7:12 pm

      Ahh, scooped me. ESPN essentially says the same thing.

  30. blade3colorado said, on March 24, 2018 at 7:12 pm

    Looks like Bum is out for 2 months. However, we probably will not need a 5th starter until April 10th and Smarg might be back shortly afterwards per this article.

    http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22887661/san-francisco-giants-pitcher-madison-bumgarner-surgery-three-pins-inserted-fifth-metacarpal

    • zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 8:47 pm

      If it gets real ugly, it still doesn’t mean the Giants would trade all those guys off. McCutchen, sure, but not necessarily the other guys.

      • blade3colorado said, on March 24, 2018 at 9:53 pm

        If they don’t trade at least some of them, then it’s purgatory for many, many years.

    • wilcojoe said, on March 24, 2018 at 8:52 pm

      How can you despute anything he says? Spot on.

    • blade3colorado said, on March 24, 2018 at 9:49 pm

      Along with you and this dude – my eyes have been wide open too.

  31. sandog said, on March 24, 2018 at 8:54 pm

    Greetings from Bakersfield!
    I coulda sworn Ken Henderson knocked in 100 runs for the Chisox one year, but the best he did was 95.
    I do know for a fact he rocked a bad ass 70’s moustache and I think some sweet shades as well on one of his White Sox BB cards.

  32. wilcojoe said, on March 24, 2018 at 8:59 pm

    When they got Cutch and Longoria I said it was a great move because two things can happen. If their lucky and everything goes right (now not likely) they can compete for a playoff appearance. If they go the other way (now very likely) they have two guys that can be flipped near the deadline for prospects.

    At this point we need to hope for strong first half seasons for guys like Cutch, Longoria, Crawford, Panik and Belt so that at least a couple of these guys can be flipped to help rebuild a putrid farm system. If the organization doesn’t do this, we truely are fucked.

  33. sandog said, on March 24, 2018 at 8:59 pm

    https://goo.gl/images/HKfnNP

    • zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 9:19 pm

      I had no memory of what he looked like. There were so few TV games in those days.

  34. wilcojoe said, on March 24, 2018 at 9:06 pm

    It’s amazing how cheap premium seats can be had at AT&T on the secondary market. Go check out StubHub for prices of games and look at the prices for premium field club and club level seats. These prices are not that far off from what I was paying to see the Astros during their 100 loss seasons. I never thought I would see this at AT&T.

    • xoot said, on March 24, 2018 at 9:19 pm

      It’ll be like 2008, 2009

  35. zumiee said, on March 24, 2018 at 9:25 pm

    In the Sabean era, I don’t remember the Giants ever doing a complete tear-down rebuild. We’ve never seen that from his regime.

  36. PaulinAsia Banh Bao said, on March 24, 2018 at 9:40 pm

    Funnily enough, I still do trust in Sabean, and since he *apparently* is back to running the show instead of Booby, I’m still going to hold out some hope that this season will be critical to (obviously) the present of the team but also the near future, and that Sabes might stay all hands-on during the season and do things he did like in 2010 and 2012 to keep the team in it all the way. With Evans in charge, no way I have that hope, slim as it is anyway at this time….

  37. gianthead said, on March 25, 2018 at 6:51 am

    I was hoping Blach would get a spot in the rotation…now the opening day starter in LA??? We be f’d…can we hope for a fight at least. We need Williamson on the roster.

  38. gianthead said, on March 25, 2018 at 7:01 am

    I was so thinking we would be in this wild card hunt this year but since Friday I have been lowering my expectations to .500 as best as I can see now a rotation of Blach-Cueto-Holland-Stratton-Suarez for 2 months is probably 13 games under .500 and probably 18 games out…

  39. gianthead said, on March 25, 2018 at 7:09 am

    And also the reality now says Duggar should start immediately…and it is not inconceivable to me that next season we see:

    1) Duggar – CF
    2) Panik – 2b
    3) Longoria – 3b (I dont see an easy path to dumping his contract
    4) Shaw – 1b
    5) Williamson – LF
    6) Hundley – C
    7) Rutledge – SS
    8) Jackson/Slater – RF

    Dump Posey, Belt, Crawford, McCutch for as much high-level pitching we can accumulate. Even though I so badly want Bum retiring as a hall of game Giant…does he look at the above and say F This…I am headed to Stros/Red Sox/Yanks/Nats…

  40. zumiee said, on March 25, 2018 at 7:25 am

    Maybe Blach will “2012 playoff Zito” on opening day, and shock everyone by beating Kershaw. 🙂
    Cutch or Longoria gets a huge HR.


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