THE San Francisco Giants Blog

Projecting Bum’s Future

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on November 28, 2018

WillieD had an interesting thought at the end of the last thread and since it’s a slow time for baseball let’s dig a little deeper into it:

“willedav said, on November 27, 2018 at 8:41 pm (Edit)

Given the general opinion in the F/G column bum’s skill set is definitely in decline, doesn’t that make hanging onto him until the deadline more likely to lessen his value than increase it? I think contending teams that want pitching are going after it right now and he is very reasonable for at least 2019.”

The first thing to remember about *decline* is that it doesn’t usually look like this:

Screenshot 2018-11-28 at 7.05.19 AM

True, if his production were to look like this he would be most valuable right now and should be traded for whatever the Giants can get. But I think it’s pretty well accepted that even NOW he would only bring back one elite prospect.

Bum’s decline doesn’t have to be absolute. The fangraph’s article is looking at more of his career in decline, not individual games in the future. It’s certainly reasonable to expect that we will see the strongest Bum to start the 2019 season that we’ve seen in years. He’s got 2 consecutive seasons of limited innings on his arm not to mention he’s probably working out like a fiend trying to prove his doubters wrong. If he has a bounce first half, maybe even a dominant first half, but the team flounders, then his value will be much higher than right now and probably at it’s peak for the remainder of his career. Factoring in the desperation level of a team will be UP at the break and not the off season, maybe we get more than one elite prospect next July if everything falls into place.

It’s a risk but I’d hold on to him and hope for a first half bounce back instead of trading him right now…..

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  1. willedav said, on November 28, 2018 at 7:59 am

    Gist of the column seemed to be all negative in terms of Bum’s value going forward–decline in velo more hard contact more walks numbers helped by the home park 1700 innings already yada yada. I do think SD is right–if they were going to extend him it would have already happened and the current thread floated around baseball wouldn’t exist.
    So it isn’t IF, just When Bum gets dealt.

    If you want to wait, there are couple things to consider.
    One, where would Giants be as a team by July? Top 6, middle 4-5 or trying to stay up on Padres?
    Two, how many teams by then would still be into a $6mil rental SP to get over hump?
    Three, of course how well he would be pitching and what those peripherals would look like

    I could see any or all 3 turning against Giants and of course if by any chance they are .500 it would be ludicrous. He could easily be doing just what Loo said and getting guys out.
    On other hand teams are definitely more into pitching right now than hitting and imo bum reps reasonably priced option compared to what an FA like Corbin would demand.

  2. gianthead said, on November 28, 2018 at 8:11 am

    I also suggest that his arm/shoulder use or not really much used in the last 2 years changes an automatic “oh he is about to be 30 and he will go straight downhill” mind set.

    The reality is that he was generally underpaid (his injury last year was a fluke and the year before was his stupid Jeff Kent-like decision) and Giants ownership/mgmt over recent history always takes care of their guys. The new guy wont be able to change that re Bum. He will get paid and the Giants will do the paying.

    If he can win another 100 games over next 6-7 years…does 200 wins and his historic WS performances get him into the Hall??? He still remains to me the one guy I want to see retire as a career-long Giant…

    • gianthead said, on November 28, 2018 at 8:15 am

      A trade before the deadline in the middle of the season with a wink-wink nod-nod deal that the Giants will sign him as a free agent afterward in order to get some talent in a mid-season trade is not beyond possibility. I suspect there is a greater chance he signs a “team-friendly” extension before the season begins…

  3. blade3colorado said, on November 28, 2018 at 8:32 am

    As I indicated yesterday, Zaidi isn’t a sentimental sort. Consequently, this stuff about Bum being an icon, SF legend, etc., has zero effect in his evaluation. Same deal with Posey or anyone on the roster by the way. I don’t know when Bum will be dealt, but it sure is looking like Zaidi has the patience to wait for the move that really works. If they get a great deal, they’ll trade him. If not, they’ll wait. In short, I have to agree with Willie – “So it isn’t IF, just When Bum gets dealt.”

  4. Bozo said, on November 28, 2018 at 9:05 am

    Good points willie, but I’m agreeing with Flav on this. Personally I think a trade right now would only bring back quantity, where as a trade at the deadline could potentially bring back a quality guy. I think the only thing that is really a gamble in waiting, would be an injury to Bum.
    Also, what if Farhan “Hey, I got you Lovegrove” Zaidi cobbles together a team, without trading Bumgarner, that’s playing winning, playoff level baseball at the deadline. I guess that could also screw up trading Bum.

  5. Flavor said, on November 28, 2018 at 9:10 am

    Bottom line is that everything has to fall into place for him to be more valuable at the deadline than he is right now. We really don’t have much to lose by finding out

  6. snarkk said, on November 28, 2018 at 9:17 am

    I’ll split the difference, trade him in the middle or end of Spring Training. IMO risk of him getting injured or going on DL for some arm thing before the trade deadline is too great…

  7. wilcojoe said, on November 28, 2018 at 9:21 am

    I think generally the return on value for starting pitching is significantly better at the trade deadline than during the offseason.

    Personally I would prefer the Giants get a couple or even 3 top prospects that are one or two years away than one major league ready arm or bat. Higher upside with more risk over lower ceiling, higher floor of someone who is already at the big league level, aka a Zach Eflin type.

  8. dirtnrocksnomo said, on November 28, 2018 at 9:49 am

    With Bumgarner’s skill set declining I’d prefer that he’s traded rather than have to watch his red ass act every 5th day as he’s getting shelled.

    • Flavor said, on November 28, 2018 at 10:53 am

      that’s a great point. That act is getting tired and played out.

    • sfsarge said, on November 28, 2018 at 2:26 pm

      I think he will be able to still be an effective pitcher, most likely not an ace. I fully agree, however that I am beyond tired of the redass act. Like he’s defending some unwritten code. Just stoppit already. A little fire, yes please. Barking and glaring at everyone he perceives disrespected him somehow, tired.

    • djloo27 said, on November 28, 2018 at 6:09 pm

      I like it. Even if it’s lost some of its entertainment value, at least he shows some competitive fire.
      At least he stands up to assholes like Puig and Joe West…

  9. unca_chuck said, on November 28, 2018 at 10:54 am

    The thing about Bummie in his favor is his injuries were not pitching-induced. He Evel Knievelled himself into oblivion, and was hit by a line drive.

    There is very little risk in my book keeping him till the deadline rather than getting gypped now. Even if he isn’t spectacular, we’d likely get the same at the deadline as we would now. If he’s his old self, it’ll be a much bigger haul. No brainer.

    And as I’ve said a few times, the possibility exists where he takes a middling deal to stay here.

    As far as Posey goes, $63 million left on the deal? Unless Zaidi is prone to eating massive amounts of contract, he (and others) ain’t moving. Irregardless of sentimentality.

    • sandog said, on November 28, 2018 at 11:15 am

      True dat regarding Posey. Trading him isn’t an option even if he waived his no trade and we wanted to do it. We’d literally have to pay a team tens of millions of dollars just to take him for free Not happening.

      I agree with the school of thought that Bum has a lot of good starts left in him. I just don’t think teams are willing to pay for him as though that is the case. Given that, keep him here—-and extend his ass already.

  10. Bozo said, on November 28, 2018 at 1:05 pm

    What about some of these bad contract swaps I’ve been reading about? Melancon for Jay Bruce anyone?

  11. unca_chuck said, on November 28, 2018 at 1:39 pm

    Melonnhead for Bruce Wayne.

    • Bozo said, on November 28, 2018 at 2:25 pm

      Yah, I hear he’s a good bat man.

  12. Flavor said, on November 28, 2018 at 7:18 pm

    can you imagine this stupid shit happening today?

    • djloo27 said, on November 28, 2018 at 7:43 pm

      Mel Allen was gay.
      How about that!!!

      • unca_chuck said, on November 28, 2018 at 9:09 pm

        Guess he was a good bat man, too.

      • Bozo said, on November 29, 2018 at 5:20 am

        A free swinger for sure.

  13. willedav said, on November 29, 2018 at 8:33 am

    Raining steadily here in south bay. Friday supposed to be clear but unsettled for Saturday with more rain likely.
    So who would that benefit for Big Game?

    • snarkk said, on November 29, 2018 at 8:59 am

      Stanfoo, IMO.
      Cal relies on its D. Offense knows where it’s going in slippery conditions, the old saying goes…

  14. unca_chuck said, on November 29, 2018 at 9:17 am

    With Love rolling, Snodfart has a big advantage in the muck. Then again, Cal plays on fake grass so that ain’t an issue. Still and all, As Smarkk noted, slippery favors the runners.

  15. snarkk said, on November 29, 2018 at 9:45 am

    A’s proposed new ballpark looks pretty cool.
    I wouldn’t bet a lot on it actually getting built. But, I hope it does. It’s cool having two MLB teams in the Bay Area…

    • alleykat69 said, on November 29, 2018 at 11:01 am

      Yeah agree Snarkk about that park getting built.No way the taxpayers will go for that.Dubs,Giants,49ers all went private finance to get their gems built. Who’s going to step up for the A’s? That’s always been their issues in the past..

  16. alleykat69 said, on November 29, 2018 at 11:33 am

    Larry Krueger Knbr rádio trade proposal ..
    Bum to The A’s for 3 outfielders Piscotty,Berrea sp? and the rights to draft pick Kyler Murray( who could also go nfl)
    His thinking if the A’s got going on a new stadium Bum would be a huge draw to move in with.But of course he could be only a rental as well, so yeah Krueger’s on crack if he thinks the A’s would do that.

  17. blade3colorado said, on November 29, 2018 at 3:40 pm

    Hey Loo . . . How good is Juliana’s Pizza? Same people (Patsy and Carol Grimaldi) use to have a famous restaurant under the Brooklyn bridge – not certain what it was called though (maybe Grimaldi’s Pizzeria?).

    • djloo27 said, on November 29, 2018 at 4:23 pm

      Never been to either one, Blade, but the old Grimaldi’s had a great reputation. I remember reading that when John Olerud was on the Mets he would frequently go out of his way after games to eat there or take out.
      They opened one in Coney Island that I’ve been meaning to visit, but haven’t gotten around to it.
      If you ever come to Brooklyn again, we’ll go there…

      • blade3colorado said, on November 29, 2018 at 5:25 pm

        A deal. May be sooner than you think. Do you have a couch?

      • djloo27 said, on November 29, 2018 at 7:10 pm

        Nope. Just one chair. San Dawg’ll tell you how to do it right…

  18. Flavor said, on November 29, 2018 at 4:39 pm

    that’s new A’s ballpark is just nothing but something some dude drew, right? All they have are the renderings, nothing else, is that correct?

    • djloo27 said, on November 29, 2018 at 5:07 pm

      Yes, Flavor. I understand this is what they are hoping it will look like when it’s finally completed…

      • Flavor said, on November 29, 2018 at 5:11 pm

        when I imagine you playing stickball it’s in a place like this.

      • zumiee said, on November 29, 2018 at 5:54 pm

        I’m pretty sure that’s the rec area at Alcatraz.

      • zumiee said, on November 29, 2018 at 5:55 pm

        Clint Eastwood is sitting on the steps contemplating his escape.

      • zumiee said, on November 29, 2018 at 5:56 pm

        Tonight is Go Time!!

  19. Flavor said, on November 29, 2018 at 5:11 pm

    this is the deal that will probably also include Loo’s boy Bruce going to the Mariners….

  20. Flavor said, on November 29, 2018 at 6:26 pm

  21. djloo27 said, on November 29, 2018 at 6:51 pm

    My dad, a big Giant fan, loved Maddox who he nicknamed Lieutenant Flap after a character in the comic strip, Beetle Bailey…

    • Macdog said, on November 29, 2018 at 6:56 pm

      That’s awesome.

      • djloo27 said, on November 29, 2018 at 7:14 pm

        It is, right?

      • Flavor said, on November 29, 2018 at 7:35 pm

        without question, that is awesome.

  22. Flavor said, on November 29, 2018 at 7:34 pm

    This Warrior game….Jesus Christ.I’ve almost turned it off 4 times I’m glad I stayed with it. OT

  23. djloo27 said, on November 29, 2018 at 8:09 pm

    Guarantee the Yanks answer by signing ex-Met Daniel Murphy…

  24. snarkk said, on November 29, 2018 at 8:49 pm

    I would love to see a blockbuster multi-team, multi-player deal shipping out several Giants mainstays. Shake this shit up…

    • PaulinAsia Banh Bao said, on November 29, 2018 at 9:22 pm

      Agreed. Fire up a 3-team trade. 4, even. Good fun.

  25. mrsprtdude said, on November 29, 2018 at 10:08 pm

    Been a while since a blockbuster trade like this was puled off. Cano and Diaz to the mets. Who knew?


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