Climbing Everest, Rather Easily
Once again, my predictive powers were on full display, all you needed to do was take a look at that headline: Mile High Beat Down. Man, I know how to call ’em, eh?
It was high time to put that thread in the past. Possibly the most wrong I’ve ever been about anything in my life.
What is up with Brandon Crawford? The dude gets 7 hits in a game 2 years ago….then does nothing for 2 years….then hits 3 bombs and 9 RBI’s yesterday. He. Is. A. Weirdo.
There are nearly no words for what Smarge, DRod and the bullpen did. Without question the best pitching performance on a single day in SF history at Coors Field—more improbable than Zito’s complete game shutout back in 2012. Considering everything they had stacked against them that might be the most impressive pitching performance since Nomo threw his NoNo.
Freshly updated odds to make the post season/win WS
Agree with Loo, how can we be 2.3% to make the post season but 0.0% to win the WS? That’s nonsense. Even if we snuck in as the 2nd WC we’d be listed at no worse than 20-1 at that point which is 5%. How can Fangraphs get away with 0.0%??????
That was a crazy day. Just a week ago i said i would be crazy pissed if we tried to add players to make the playoffs. Now? The teams ahead of us are all flawed too. WC team 2 games over .500. Good thing we are in the NL. Or is it? The best thing about baseball is hope. Now I have a little. Say 2-3%!!
The key to our offense is POSEY. Most major surgeries will take 9-12 months to start feeling normal. Yes the athletes play before that, but not 100%. If he starts to hit Belt will too. He can’t be the number one guy, but a capable follower. I see typing this that my hope meter went up a bit more. 5% now for sure. This is a funny damn game isn’t it??
In the song “Bohemian Rhapsody,” the opening line is “Is this real life or is this just fantasy?” Is the Giants’ surge something real or just an entertaining fantasy before it all goes bleh again?
What a crazy July so far, with Zaidi now having a couple of weeks to make tough decisions.
Tough question. 2 weeks ago everyone here would say our chances of making the playoffs were zero. No we are like Jim Carrey Yes Man..”So you’re saying i have a chance!”
Reply to Xoot from last night: this is the first time the team’s been interesting in nearly 3 years, so I’ll be paying attention a little longer with everyone else.
The post was largely about my guess as to why there’s such a significant disparity in the playoff odds given to teams that are pretty closely bunched by W-L. Whether they scored 5 or 21 runs yesterday, after 2/3 of the season, SF has scored many fewer runs than it’s given up. In order to go 40-28 the rest of the way, SF has to reverse that. To reverse it, players like Posey, Crawford, Belt, Pillar, Sandoval, Longoria, and the staff need to improve their current individual season numbers. That seems unlikely, while the likelier status quo gets them to a mid-70s win total. If Arizona’s players maintain their current individual performances, they likely get to a mid-80s W-L. That’s the theory . . . .
Besides the modern various metrics used in evaluating players, the juiced balls, smaller ballparks, the new rules and methods of play, there is also a new math for those in pursuit of the playoffs. The second wildcard is so bunched up with .500 teams that if you’re only a couple games out of it, jumping over multiple teams isn’t as much of a hurdle as it was in the past, so why not go for it?
I’m still rolling with AHOFO.
Good point, but if you go for it and don’t make it, then it’s more wasted time for the rebuild. That’s the yin and yang Zaidi has to consider.
I define “going for it” as not trading Bum and Smith.
I’ll agree with that, but I’d also include being a buyer and not standing pat as part of my definition of going for it.
3 games out is 3 games out. We could very well be WC 2 by the break at this rate. If they learn how to win at home, there’s no stopping us!
No one has run away yet so, why not us? I know. Dangerous thinking. And that chart IS funny. 0% chance to win the WS? We managed to win 3 World Series facing these kinds of odds.
Statistics are lies masquerading as reality.
In other words, in the words of Tommy Lasorda, go fuck your fucking ana-fuckin-lytics.
You climb Everest one step at a time, but you always need sherpas to help you.
Pretty crazy that if the Giants somehow realized their 2.3% playoff chance they could potentially add Cueto to their starting staff.
Fuck the numbers! was my mantra to Twinnie.
Drove him nuts…
The real test comes today if the momentum keeps going.Asked by a reporter after the game:So Pomeneraz tomorrow?Huge look of silence on Bochy’s face,almost hypnotic,then finally said yes, but it made me wonder especially when I heard Suaerz was scratched from his start last night.Could be a opener combo of these 2 rolling the dice..
Andrew&Drew and pray were not screwed..
The #SFGiants on July 15, 2018: 50-48, 4 GB in the Wild Card race.
The #SFGiants on July 15, 2019: 45-49, 3 GB in the Wild Card race.
From Kerry Crowley on The Twitter
With Baer back in the fold (I guess), you KNOW he’s pulling for keeping the band together.
He’s keeping a low public profile but in the building you have to wonder what strings he’s pulling to get Farhan to buy at the break.
Who or what would you buy?
I probably was willing to trade Beede in this past off-season maybe not now…but we have no depth to trade to get anything. No way they give up Bart, Heliot or any of their top tier prospects
Pomeranian’s leash for tonight’s game.
Yeah I personally would prefer a CHOKE COLLAR version for Pomeraz…
Rox are 2-8 in July. run differential on their 5 game homestand (2–3 so far) is 25-49. ouch Giants got 21 hits in first game with 6 doubles/4 bombs and Reds had 24 Saturday night when the put up 17..
Panik (insert) loves it there, hitting over .400 according to radio guy with miller, Rizzo. I thought I heard him say that is best of any current opposing hitter there. Miller did add he did most of damage in one 3 game series when he got 12 hits; didn’t catch year that happened.
Don’t know if this got posted here, but here’s Tyler Skaggs’ mom throwing a strike before the Angels no-hit the Mariners the other day. The no-hitter game finished minutes before what would have been Skaggs’ 28th birthday on July 13.
Mike Trout pointed out that the Angels scored seven runs in the first inning and finished with 13 runs. He added, “Tyler’s birthday is 7/13. Tomorrow.”
And of course the last combined no-hitter in CA was 7/13/1991. Tyler Skaggs birthday.
Maybe the improved play and record wont make them appear to be desperate to dump players and oddly and perversely allows them to drive a harder bargain as other playoff level or near-playoff level teams get more desperate to add pitching…
May take the Phillies off the trading board for the Giants and screwing me in the Draculoo contest…
The Phillies looking so terrible and uncompetitive against the Dodgers yesterday was an eye-opener. The Phils aren’t anything special.
I think their manager Kapler is on the hot-seat. Franco killed a rally by jogging to first base on a grounder that got misplayed. Their team looked totally flat.
they added Harper and thought they’d coast. They were wrong. Can’t believe how fortunate we were to dodge the Harper bullet.
Would you take Franco? I would in a package for Bum…
All Knowing One DFA’d by Red Sox. did get himself a ring.
Rodriguez optioned to AAA and Suarez called up.
Crawford is a weird player but after .373/.433/.712/1.145 over the last month he’s basically back to his career offensive numbers following his poor start to the season. 11 errors in the field thus far put him on pace for the most since 2014 which confirms the eyeball test. He’s definitely slower in the field and doesn’t seem to be handling his chances as well. Who was it that said he’s the oldest SS in the NL now?
In all of MLB per Brewer announcers,I think…
Good news, dj. Crawford probably lost 10-12 lbs in that heat yesterday as he mashed all those bombs, running the bases and whatnot.
Bad news is he was seen at Voodoo Donuts this morning.
How is Voodoo donuts? Worth the hype?
wilco, I checked it out once and it was legit as far as donuts go but not sure that its worth the long lines.
Voodoo Donuts real deal…good alt music and got to flirt with the chick server. All pluses in my book.
Yes, their donuts are great.They have crazy donuts that are excellent. The one is Denver is two doors down from a dispensary. Met Chi at a Rockies game after going there. Blade unfortunately threw out his back and missed it. An awful, come from ahead loss as Bochy was rolling through the pen like a drunken sailor banging hookers. 2017 i think.
he is big though, agreed He’s been a pretty streaky hitter, good months sandwiched around pretty bad ones. I think last year he got hot late with good September. See how long this lasts.
Yep their you go, please Lord at least start Suarez for me🙏 over Pom!!
No shit, AK. Maybe Southbound Suarez opens, and Pomeranian gets the 3rd inning and that’s it.
Ramos (Heliot) homered again last night, #12 for San Jose, BA at .302 OPS over .900 Really hope he can help break up vanilla triangle ASAP.
Shaw had 5 hits and a bomb last night in 12-11 game for Sac. Anyone have any feedback on 3b Zac Green who is hitting well (like lot of PCL guys) for Sac? Lot of calls for him to come up if Longo is out longer than 10.
Btw listening to Miller on radio when he said Slater let a ball off DRod go over his head in RF he misjudged and he also said that was second one he’d screwed up out there. that is a definite hmmnn
Was Slater a bit sick still for the double header?
I’m sure that some or most of you have read it, but if not you should –long ago I read a book by (I think) a beat writer by a NY paper who went back and published a day-by-day account of the Giant’s long trudge from (13?) games back to Bobby Thompson’s HR for the pennant. Totally unbelievable. Yet it happened.
Like BF, I was extremely pessimistic about this year’s season. However, I must differ about the W.C. A modest win streak on top of what has happened recently could get them to .500 ball. If they are playing .500 starting August the playoffs are, believe it or not, achievable.
I agree with James that this team is interesting. Not sure why, but maybe it is all the new blood. I’m kind of impressed with Yaz.
All this, my logic tells me, will wind up in a smoking pile of dookie at the end of the season – -but who REALLY knows. Go read that book and it will give you a different perspective
OSF.
And, I think at this point TF would have declared this the best Giant year since the last W.S. Maybe he would be correct.
The club is sort of taking on a “Band of Misfits” feel but I think in some ways that’s the hallmark of a Bochy led club. 23-15 since June 1st so let’s see if they can sustain it.
Cheesy Mac DFA’d by the Mariners…
Destined For Accident…
What’s the club’s record since The Dick showed up? Feels like they’ve been winning ever since….
18-11. We were 11 games under .500 (27-38) when we got him.
that rocket right over our heads one hop into bay was impressive.
WAD wins after Dick.
sounds better than WAF (after Flap) but still those numbers good too, no?
2 players that now looks like the Giants didn’t screw up and traded are Christian Arroyo (out with elbow tendeniates till at least mid Aug) and Matt Duffy( hamstring injury, though may return soon..
Zack Wheeler to the IL with shoulder issues. Still a shitty Beltran rental loss tho.
Boch on knbr right now. He’s in a fabulous mood.
I bet he’s as surprised as anyone how well this team is doing. Spit, glue and duct tape, and the team is 23-14 since June 1 (14-12 in June, 9-2 in July) after a 10-15 May and an 11-14 April.
he gave the credit to the surge to the hitting, followed it up with his standard comments about how important pitching is. But he knows how the game is played now, he knows you gotta bring the big sticks to the game and not the walks and the bullshit we were getting from our tired vets…..
WOW. 11-3 Since the Flap descended on Oracle.
Flap Nation does seem to have a positive affect on the Giants surge!!
We all bring it!
Bochy looks so happy and chill.
i’m tellin’ ya, these Tigers fans have it bad….
FWAR and WAD are top shelf contributions to the analytics community imo.
Technically, FanGraphs calls their WAR: fWAR, I think.
There always the Compilation of Unwieldy Metrics . . .
So, if you knew for sure that the Giants would be the 2nd Wild Card by standing pat, you’d roll the dice and lose Bum & Smith for nothing over the winter?
Not me – and not Z. He knows how much better LA is than us and they’re bound to get stronger at the deadline…
Totally agree with you. But I don’t think we lose Smith over the Winter (don’t feel like looking it up). We need to bolster our limp system and fix the damage Sabean and Evans did to the team. That starts with trading anyone we have of value by the deadline.
Yes we do.
Zman is actually in the cat-bird’s seat. A month ago all the GMs knew he HAD to trade like BF’s prior comment said. But, now he can play coy if he wants to in negotiation. He can trot out, “The fans are hot! They will kill me if I trade that guy.” He may still trade everybody, but it gives him leverage he may not have had before. Then again, maybe he read that book and is drinking the Kool-Aid too and pulls back on trades in general.
Funny, but the next two weeks of performance (tonight?) could influence his decision and set the Giant’s path for the next few years. Twin would be all over it.
OSF
Johnny Cueto to pitch in Arizona league games starting Aug1, Bochy said:He may face live hitting..
Still owe him about $60 million…
Contract signed in a different era. Seems long ago.
Yaz missed just missed a HR, but knoncs in :The Dick DICK Dick for a RBI dickable..
Dribbler attack working!
Damn, that DP hurt.
Looking at a trade of Bumgarner and Smith from the WAR perspective: those two players alone aren’t going to make the difference between a team that wins 74 games and one that wins 86. The Giants need high level play from a lot of others to get to the playoffs, whether Bumgarner and Smith are there or not.
That pitcher Lambert can down right hit.Watched a game against the Cubs and he drilled 2 doubles to right center.Now he’s 7-12 with that single..
Pom looks like what I imagine Zumiee to have looked like when he was younger….
Hah! Come ON, Zume. Break out some 70s pics!
Well, I don’t know how to post a photograph here anyway other than online ones.
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Both of us didn’t have facial hair in our young adult years. I can see a little resemblance. Other than I’m right handed and only pitched in Friday night softball lob-ball leagues.
i meant with the beard tho
Yeah, more so in profile.
This is OSF checking in from the wild coast of Oregon. Great weather but no MLB. Back to Channel 720 again. This time not on video feed yet. 2-0 Giants!
WTF?
Kuip forgets how many outs there are. Again.
I’m shocked and happy!
Shocked that Pom is pitching great in this park on the road.
And happy he is..
Yeah I jinxed him.
Good start anyway, tip of the cap Pom..
No kidding. Just thought the same thing as he sailed through the 5th.
i’d like to see about 5 more runs however.
Then the 6th happened.
Nice shoes, Trev . . .
If you’re the Dodgers these days, you bring a guy up from AAA to replace Taylor, and he hits a 3-run HR to give them the lead in the top of the 9th. Of course.
The Dodgers, 7 hits, 5 HRs, and struck out 12 times. Baseball as it is now.
Jansen blows the save; Harper walk-off double!
Hah! Although we Philly to lose , , ,
I hear ya. Still will take the Dodger loss, though. 🙂
Philly dug deep and found some athletic pride for tonight’s game.
LA finally had it happen to them.
Yeah, they got to taste was walk-off loss.
taste some, I meant
I wonder if Kapler lit into them after yesterday’s flat effort.
He should have,even are own Dave Flemming was ripping them in the booth, especially the Franco non hustle play..
Doubtful: “I just don’t do it in the way that many people think it should be done. I’m not going to apologize for that. I’m not going to say, ‘Man, I should be Dallas Green.’ I’m not (expletive) Dallas Green. I never will be.”
THE DICK huge wood hit!!
Pillar has played outstanding CF this series.
Shoulda been more but a run is a run
\
A little behind here. Pillar is killing it out there. He makes the tough ones most of the time. It’s those cans of corn that are tricky.
Yazzzz!
He got all of that one.
Yaz sure has sneaky power! I love the kid and his D I solid too..
He’s compact, like a good miler…
TBH chill is not a word I use
refers to a post that got lost: Bochy looks so happy and chill after Yaz’s homer
Love my channel 720. 14 ” from 25′ away. 3-1, top of 9th. Resisting my bench. !!
OSF
who is that announcing with Kuiper
Estes.
thanks; Sucked in the Playoffs Estes
Estes?
Insurance runs muy importante . . .
Insurance runs always come in handy, especially here.
I didn’t watch the series in Milwaukee. Is that woman with the big knockers still prominently behind the plate? This is important to know. Or is Milwaukee the wrong city?
She was there.
Or should I say THEY were there…