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Betting Lines

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on January 22, 2020

The betting line still favors the Chiefs by 1. The O/U has crept up a couple of points to 54. Obviously I’d take the Niners on the ML but the O/u intrigues me. EVERYONE is saying this is going over. That alone is the reason to take the under.  I’m looking at 2 good defenses and a Niners team that is currently hell bent on running the ball nearly every play (thus bleeding that clock down). I’d take the under in this game at anywhere in the 50’s…..

Giants news: Hensley Muelens likely to not get the Met’s managerial job. Between him and Wotus they have to be like 0h for 20 on interviews. Time for both to accept that the rest of the baseball world doesn’t see them as managerial material……

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  1. djloo27 said, on January 22, 2020 at 7:01 am

    Full Disclosure:

    SanDawg and I have been privately boosting each others confidence…

  2. zumiee said, on January 22, 2020 at 7:01 am

    And there’s nothing necessarily wrong with that. Some people are good at coaching and can have a great career at that, without ever being the one in the crucible of the hot seat.

  3. chipower9 said, on January 22, 2020 at 7:04 am

    Yeah, this whole line thing is interesting. There have been some big (six digit) bets on both sides. I shared a link end of the last thread that shows more money on the Chief than Niners, but not by much. The article also noted that more action is happening on the money line. I was thinking of a bet on Niners +1.5, but am leaning towards the money line, now.

    I truly think if the Niners D line can get some pressure on Mahomes and the backers subsequently contain him, coupled with the Niners being able to run the ball, and not turn it over, then the Niners should win this game. (I know I have made this comment a number of times, but those are truly the keys to a Niners win, IMO.)

    I do like the old adage that many trust:

    Offense wins games.

    Defense wins championships.

    GO NINERS…

  4. willedav said, on January 22, 2020 at 7:34 am

    Agree on D being key. Get in any QB’s grille and they are less effective. Still, you look at Niners season, they handled the chump teams in early part very well. This was Tampa Cincy Browns Skins and Panthers, all of whom suck plus Steelers and Pack.
    After that, not so much. Brees put 46 on them, Jackson beat them, Wilson beat them here with late drive and then almost did it again, and Ryan and the Falcons did too. I’ve seen Niners D be dominant, as it was last week.
    I’ve also seen it get lit up and not be able to get off the field or stop late game drive by talented QB.

    Mahomes is just so explosive and capable of putting up points in a hurry, even after being bottled up for awhile. I wouldn’t like to see him with ball in his hands and chance to win game late.

    • chipower9 said, on January 22, 2020 at 8:18 am

      Many seem to forget that the Niners, during much of the season, were without two key defensive players: Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander. Since the two returned (Minnesota game), the defense defense/pass rush has kicked-ass. They are still the number one rated defense in the NFL. I’ll hang my hat on that and the Niners run game (O-line has been monster of late, too).

      • willedav said, on January 22, 2020 at 8:28 am

        oh yeah having everyone healthy should make a difference, along with Moseley in there for Witherspoon. Depth at running back is great too, whether Coleman can go or not.

    • chipower9 said, on January 22, 2020 at 8:19 am

      As mentioned on the last thread, Brees put up 46, but the Niners WON. Yes, they lost at home to the Hawks/Wilson, on the last play of the game, but beat them second time around. Again, I will hang my hat on Niners D and running game.

  5. willedav said, on January 22, 2020 at 7:42 am

    Flav, that Delonte West vid you posted attracted lot of national attention. Saw shoutouts for help for the poor guy from old teammates like Jameer Nelson and college coach Phil Martelli. Always had soft spot for Philly schools, Nova LaSalle St. Joe’s Temple lot of very good players and coaches going back long ways, to Jack Ramsay.

    • Macdog said, on January 22, 2020 at 8:32 am

      Don’t forget Penn, the only Philly school other than ‘Nova to reach the Final Four since the ’70s.

  6. willedav said, on January 22, 2020 at 7:48 am

    One angle I haven’t seen much said about–coaching. Reid has gotten his share of heat before, and last time Shanahan was in the SB things did not go so well either. That would have been Falcons first ever championship too, right?

    • chipower9 said, on January 22, 2020 at 8:25 am

      .

  7. willedav said, on January 22, 2020 at 8:22 am

    Zum makes good point–good solid bench coach is an asset, whether he is ultimately perceived mgmt. material or not. Wotus is good guy for Kapler to have around, imo. And remember, his newly hired pitching coach has never been one anywhere before either.

    And as to newer younger less experienced managers…Hinch is gone, Cora is gone, Roberts has won division and league without ever winning WS yada yada. Kurkjian had a rant soon after the whole cheating investigation by MLB went public. What he said was there is a thought process by new/younger group in many FOs that they are smarter than everyone else and have the tools. Obviously the ways they have chosen to use them way wrong.

  8. unca_chuck said, on January 22, 2020 at 8:43 am

    Once again I posted on the old thread before realizing there was a new one . . .

    The Niners beat K Murray twice, Wilson once, and lost to Lamar. All with varying shades of injuries to key people on offense and defense. Goff and Rodgers are known for their mobility in getting passes out and we took care of both of them twice.

    By the time the 2nd Ram game rolled around, we had gotten to the point where we weren’t getting burned on the fakes. But it took till the 2nd half before it really got better. Bosa was a prime example of biting inside on the fakes and leaving the edge wide open for roll outs and drag routes. This was without Ford and Alexander, our most vulnerable time to these rollouts and bootlegs. Bosa has gotten better at not overreacting.

  9. Winder said, on January 22, 2020 at 9:58 am

    Don’t have a clue as to this one. Both teams are gonna be pulling out all the stops. Last one to have the ball probably wins.

  10. unca_chuck said, on January 22, 2020 at 10:14 am

    Hate those kinds of games. We had our fill this year. I think we can wear them down in the end though.

    Funny thing is, they showed the KC/Niner game from last year. The one where Jimmy G got hurt, and KC jumped out to a 35-7 lead and came a couple penalties from blowing that lead. Dee Ford sacked Jimmy a couple times, and we committed 17 penalties for 165 yards. None more galling than a BS offensive pass interference call on Juice in the end zone that would have closed the score to 38-31 with 5 minutes left.

    I”m just thankful this isn’t the KC officiating crew. There were about 8 BS penalties called on the Niners.

    Point being, when we kept outside contain in the 2nd half, Mahomes was terrible. KC scored 3 points in the 2nd half. Mahomes was killing the Niners sprinting to his right and buying time. When the edge was occupied, he was not nearly as effective. That game was actually a pretty good look at how to slow down Mahomes.

    • Macdog said, on January 22, 2020 at 10:59 am

      I looked at the box score of that game. Seven different players scored a touchdown. Of the seven, only three are still with either team, and one of them is on IR.

    • unca_chuck said, on January 22, 2020 at 11:17 am

      And they took away one by Kittle late.

  11. alleykat69 said, on January 22, 2020 at 10:45 am

    If past records are any indication,the 49ers should embrace the underdog role.
    In the last 7 Super Bowls games played the underdog is 5-2 straight up are against the spread!

  12. alleykat69 said, on January 22, 2020 at 11:53 am

    I just hope they have a good game plan for Tyreek Hill.He’s the fastest player in the league and capable of breaking either a pass are a run to the house.And after Adams got a step on Sherman, that would be 3 steps for Hill.
    I’m really looking forward to the 2 best Tight Ends in football (the K&K boys) squaring off to see who can outperform the other,which will be another key in this game, since both are the QB’s usual go to guys..

  13. zumiee said, on January 22, 2020 at 12:02 pm

    Crawford turned 33 yesterday. There was a time when the people in baseball and the fans thought 33 was still in a player’s prime. Hardly anyone thinks that anymore. It was probably never true, other than a few exceptions who were outliers. It was probably just one of those myths of baseball that got shot down by sabermetrics.

  14. unca_chuck said, on January 22, 2020 at 12:48 pm

    I’ve heard of Sal the Barber, but had no idea he was banned from baseball for 4 seasons playing in the Mexican leagues. They took the best years of his career.

  15. Flavor said, on January 22, 2020 at 1:18 pm

    33 was still young in the steroid era. Shit guys were having second re-births to their career in their late 30’s. We just took it as normal. And then we got this bullshit with Altuve thinking he was some type of modern day pipsqueek superhero. He, like those in the steroid era, were fake…..

  16. Bozo said, on January 22, 2020 at 1:22 pm

    I’m thinking LA might want to STFU about being cheated. –

    Logan Morrison doesn’t believe MLB’s sign-stealing problem ends with the Houston Astros.

    The Milwaukee Brewers first baseman wrote in a since-deleted Instagram post he believes other teams have been guilty of similar infractions.

    “I know from first hand accounts that the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, and Red Sox all have used film to pick signs,” he wrote, per NJ Advance Media’s Brendan Kuty. “Just want you guys to know the truth. I personally think it’s a tool in a tool belt to pick signs, but if we are going to be punishing people for it. Don’t half ass it.”

    • unca_chuck said, on January 22, 2020 at 3:46 pm

      This would be the league’s worst nightmare. Proof that multiple teams are actively cheating.

  17. dirtnrocksnomo said, on January 22, 2020 at 1:55 pm

    Solid take here imo

    • chipower9 said, on January 22, 2020 at 2:26 pm

      HUA! Air Force term that was barked to mean…Heard, Understood, Acknowledged.

  18. unca_chuck said, on January 22, 2020 at 2:45 pm

    He forgot last-second wins.

  19. djloo27 said, on January 22, 2020 at 3:18 pm

    One thing I would not expect is another slow start by KC. I’m expecting Reid to throw the kitchen sink from the very first snap…

    • dirtnrocksnomo said, on January 22, 2020 at 3:21 pm

      What’s the over/under on pre-game cheeseburgers for Reid?

      • djloo27 said, on January 22, 2020 at 3:44 pm

        He definitely gained back the weight he lost a year or two ago.
        Keeping it off is harder than losing it.
        Anyway………2.5

    • unca_chuck said, on January 22, 2020 at 3:49 pm

      One thing the 49ers have been good at lately is getting a TD the first time they touch the ball. Score early score often.

      • djloo27 said, on January 22, 2020 at 4:01 pm

        Chuck…Do you think the coin toss winner should/will defer?
        I thought KC was nuts to do that last week, but it worked out…

      • alleykat69 said, on January 22, 2020 at 4:47 pm

        I think most teams like to defer to start.They stop a team early on down it sets the tone.Plus they might get a FG or TD before the half and get the pigskin to start the 2nd half, so it can work out very beneficial..

      • unca_chuck said, on January 22, 2020 at 5:09 pm

        It is funny how that changed. Walsh used to want to get on top early and not look back. Harbaugh and a couple others started deferring to set the defensive tone.

      • unca_chuck said, on January 22, 2020 at 6:30 pm

        I think 80% of teams do it. Mainly because I think a lot of teams don’t score on their opening drives.

      • chipower9 said, on January 23, 2020 at 6:53 am

        I would defer and sick that D line on Mahomes. Niners D must contain/seal the edges. They may be a little overzealous for a series or two, and if so, they just need to simmer down.

  20. unca_chuck said, on January 22, 2020 at 5:09 pm

    I wish I knew how many opening drives didn’t end up in points.

  21. alleykat69 said, on January 22, 2020 at 5:18 pm

    Say Chuck I seem to be blocked on your blog to post. Whoever that jack ass is who used my avatar spelled alleykkat69 might have pissed you off.My lettering is just alleykat69 no extra k.

  22. unca_chuck said, on January 22, 2020 at 5:27 pm

    I only block ISPs. You got caught in the spam filter for some reason.

    • unca_chuck said, on January 22, 2020 at 5:30 pm

      The list of emails he has created is mind-numbing.

  23. Macdog said, on January 22, 2020 at 5:48 pm

    Opening drives regular season:

    Chiefs started on offense 5 times: 3 TDs, 1 FG, 1 punt
    Chiefs started on defense 11 times: 3 TDs, 3 FGs, 4 punts, 1 INT (Carr).

    Niners started on offense 5 times: 2 TDs, 1 FG, 1 punt, 1 INT (Steelers)
    Niners started on defense 11 times: 3 TDs, 1 FG, 5 punts, 1 missed FG (Redskins), 1 fumble recovery (Rodgers).

    • chipower9 said, on January 23, 2020 at 6:54 am

      Nice work, Mac.

  24. willedav said, on January 22, 2020 at 7:46 pm

    Niners season really is split in two. First 8, no Ls defense gave up 102 pts.
    Second 8 vs. better teams, 5-3 208 pts. given up.
    In bright sunshine and away from Ice Bowl of Kansas, I don’t think anyone holds KC to less than 24 So I’d bet the over. Niners fully capable of getting more than that too.

    Yes Mac, I left out Penn from Big 5 Philly schools. Did not remember them getting that far in Tournament as you mentioned. I do recall seeing sm forward Corky Calhoun from Penn iirc played for Phoenix Suns.

    • Macdog said, on January 22, 2020 at 7:57 pm

      Penn made Final Four in ’79, then got blasted by Magic & Michigan State in the semis.

  25. unca_chuck said, on January 22, 2020 at 8:00 pm

    Losing Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander was the biggest factor in the defense giving up more points. Sacks dropped off the table after the Green Bay game. Yeah Dee and Kwon went down the week before, but after that the sacks went from averaging 4 per game to less than 1 per game.

    • chipower9 said, on January 23, 2020 at 6:55 am

      Agree. I keep making that point, too. It wasn’t as much the quality of the opponent in the second half as it was the loss of those two (Dee and Kwon).

  26. alleykat69 said, on January 22, 2020 at 8:47 pm

    Agree the sack total took a hit without Dee&Kwon but sometimes it helps bringing out the “next man up theory” and after Kwon went down on Oct 31 his replacement the 5th rd rookie Dre Greenlaw started making huge plays like an all pro(he’s going to be real special going forward) and another guy who is really playing great is Safety Jimmy Ward,who due to numerous injuries was on a 1 year make good with a final chance and he’s paid major dividends this year..

  27. unca_chuck said, on January 23, 2020 at 7:53 am

    With Ford and Alexander back, 9 sacks in 2 playoff games. Greenlaw looked special the first time I saw him in preseason. Dude is fast as hell. He gets a little out of control, as did Bosa once Ford was gone, but with everybody healthy I see our defense taking this game over down the stretch. Stack the left side of the D line (Mahomie’s right side) and push him left.

    Greenlaw was starting games before Alexander got hurt. We started a lot of games in the nickel. 2 LBs and 5 DBs.

  28. willedav said, on January 23, 2020 at 9:17 am

    Luis Rojas guy Mets hired as mgr. is Felipe Alou’s son, and half brother of Moises. When he first came here MLB got the family name wrong. Mel rojas relief pitcher part of same family iirc. Been awhile since I read his bio, a great read btw, but he did have few marriages and acknowledges some blame for that.

  29. willedav said, on January 23, 2020 at 9:24 am

    First 8 teams the Niners played won a total of 45 games all season.
    top 4 teams they played in second half (Seattle GB NO Ravens) alone surpasses that.
    what I saw was there were times against better competition, as team went 5-3, Saleh’s D got lit up, could not get off the field and he had no answers for what was going on, vs. mobile QB and passing game.
    Mahomes is gonna be a challenge.

    • chipower9 said, on January 23, 2020 at 9:39 am

      I will say it again. They beat Wilson/Hawks once, lost other time on last play of the game. They beat Brees and Saints in shootout. They beat Rodgers twice. They beat Murray and the Cards twice. They lost to Ravens on the last play of the game.

      And again…the Niners were without two of their key defenders for a large part of the year.

      Mahomes is a special QB, but so is the Niner D (tops in the league). Bring it on.

      Offense wins games.

      Defense wins championships.

  30. unca_chuck said, on January 23, 2020 at 10:06 am

    Thing is, it took Nick Bosa and the young LBs a couple games to stop biting on the fakes that Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson ran. He was making rookie mistakes by overcommitting on run fakes up the middle and left the edge wide open.

    This especially hurt with Greenlaw at LB rather than Alexander as he was making rookie mistakes as well and biting on the same fakes.

    These problems continued through the Seattle game and half of the 2nd Rams game. I’ll give McVay credit as he rolled out Goff on play action rollouts to take advantage of us crashing the line and leaving the edge open. For whatever reason, the defense seemed to get a better handle on not falling for the fakes and staying in position to hold the edge in the 2nd half of that game.

    This alone gives me hope that we won’t let Mahomes run wild. He’ll get his 1st downs moving around the pocket and running, but we just have to stop the big plays. Despite all these mobile QBs, the 49er defense gave up the fewest big plays all year.

    • Flavor said, on January 23, 2020 at 10:08 am

      I’m more worried about who’s gonna guard/stop/chase Hill….

      • sandog said, on January 23, 2020 at 5:55 pm

        I don’t think its gonna be Sherman…..(except for maybe the chasing part)

    • unca_chuck said, on January 23, 2020 at 10:14 am

      What I would like to see is us being VERY aggressive at the line with Hill. Pop him as he tries to get off the line. Throw him off his route and timing. I’ll take a 5 yard holding call over a 55 yard TD every day. Guys tried to do this with Rice, and it worked some of the time.

      Also get to Mahomie in under 4 seconds so he doesn’t have the time to go deep.

  31. Flavor said, on January 23, 2020 at 10:07 am

  32. unca_chuck said, on January 23, 2020 at 10:11 am

    And Zumie, I just listened to this. Yeah yeah yeah, they’re good . . .

    Looking back at the Beatles, it’s easy to say they were just a part of the times, but what they did was so far beyond what anyone not named Brian Wilson was doing.

    • zumiee said, on January 23, 2020 at 11:52 am

      Great choice!

  33. dirtnrocksnomo said, on January 23, 2020 at 2:25 pm

    Nice interview with #33 over at the Athletic. Dude should be in the HOF as far as I’m concerned. Here’s a good pissed off for greatness type blurb;

    “You have to starve for your legacy,” Craig said. “Hungry is not good enough. You get three meals a day when you’re hungry. But when you’re starving, you don’t know when you get your next meal. If you’re in the jungle somewhere, you’ve gotta go for the kill to eat.

    “That’s the mentality we played with. We were starving for our legacy. And I see these guys starving for their legacy, too. Bosa, Kittle, how they all play. They all bring something to the table. They came together as a unit, being one heartbeat in that locker room. They gotta bring that to the field.”

    • chipower9 said, on January 23, 2020 at 8:24 pm

      I’m with you on Craig in the HOF. Cool words from the great #33.

  34. sandog said, on January 23, 2020 at 5:54 pm

    Jerry Blevins? Darrin Ruf? What’s with these 30 something guys the Giants are bringing on board?
    I thought I was in-sync with Z-Man and the plan was to take flyers on young guys, not these old dudes.

    I don’t get it.

    Fun Fact—I was just at Abbey Road studios over the holidays. (Hanging around in fron tof the building and went in the gift shop—–though I think I Stephen Stills walked right by me, through the gate, and into the studio)
    Maybe it wasn’t him, but I’m pretty good with faces, and it looked like him. Whoever it was definitely dressed and carried themselves like a rock star.

  35. alleykat69 said, on January 23, 2020 at 7:53 pm

    The Sac express will be fully on high alert with Z’s 30 plus moves guaranteed.He did find a nugget in Yaz along the way atleast,another 30 year old guy now..

  36. zumiee said, on January 23, 2020 at 8:02 pm

    Dallas/Portland is 45-37 at the end of the 1st quarter. No pretense of defense is going on in this one.

    • Macdog said, on January 23, 2020 at 8:13 pm

      Lakers-Nets earlier was 75-70 at half.

      • zumiee said, on January 23, 2020 at 9:03 pm

        Charles Barkley went off on the lack of defense in the NBA nowadays.

  37. willedav said, on January 23, 2020 at 8:37 pm

    was watching college b-ball, flipped over to ESPN 2 and watched happy ending of Chinese gal Wang Qiang knocking out Serena Williams from Aussie Open.

    • Macdog said, on January 23, 2020 at 8:51 pm

      Another tennis fan! Yes, glad to see Serena ousted Down Under. Bummed, though, to see Wozniacki lose in her Slam finale.

  38. mrsprtdude said, on January 23, 2020 at 10:04 pm

    Thanks for the Beatles Chuck!


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