Great Start To The Roadie
Between Wood, Gausman and Disco I’m honestly unsure of who to jizz to. Combined they have an ERA under freaking 2.00. That’s just outrageous.
Preakness this weekend. Baffert gets to start his cheater horse PLUS another one. So he’s got the 2 favorites going. I have never wanted 2 horses to lose more. And luckily I think I’ve found just the longshot to ruin the chances of both rapscallions.
Shout out to the Grave Duggar who homered for the first time in 2 years. Dude has kept grinding and that work is starting to pay off. And despite what you think about his bat we need his glove (and shovel) in the outfield, desperately.
Speaking of his bat, he has the third highest batting average on the team (after Posey and Solano). I have no illusions about his bat. But if you are going to spend you time shitting on a Giant (who is helping us win) you should a) stop doing that because it’s petty and stupid and b) first shit on the 14 hitters we have who tote around a batting average lower than his.
A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball 
The pitching overall has been great. I didn’t know a lot about Disco coming into this season, but he’s been impressive so far. I believe Cueto will get it back soon, which means the front four starters will all be mighty tough. Throw in Webb’s encouraging start the other day and things are looking pretty good.
The bullpen has been a little spotty, but solid overall. I was hard on Rogers last year, but he’s making me eat crow this year. Really impressive. The offense could be better, more consistent, but I think they will be. Yaz looks like he may be snapping out of his funk, Solano back soon, which will hopefully make up for Wilmer not really hitting all that well.
I didn’t see this start coming, so it’s been fun. GO GIANTS!
I have not been a huge fan, but the banter over GD by you and Loo is entertaining, Craig. And I will admit, the guy is making it hard for management. But mostly, I agree that it is bad form to bag on any Giant who is helping our team win games.
Like LJ (and all of us here, I am sure), no one saw this coming. Pretty amazing. I see no reason they cannot sustain this. Sure, they may have a few dips here and there, but I just don’t see this team going into a deep and long tailspin.
GO GIANTS!
BA matters? OB, fine–the infield hit and walk are very cool Hey he had nice game, but prior to yesterday he was 3-20 at sea level (as opposed to one good series hitting at Colorado) and even with Colo OPS was .649–that means a lot more than BA. Also, he has 0 steals and bomb was his first in almost 2 years. Yaz Slater and Ruf all have 4 HRs, Dickerson 3 and Tauchman 1. Hey helped win a game yesterday, good for him–jury still out on where he ranks among OFs.
Duggar only 38 PAs, but those are starter numbers he has right now. If he keeps the hitting on pace, and improves the K/walk ratio to 2-1, he’ll be an incredibly valuable player.
Had not read your more . . . guarded take on Duggar, WD 🙂
Homestand vs. SD and Texas he was 2-11, with 4 Ks and 2 GIDPs. One of those Kap hit for him early with Slater after 1 AB, might have been Cueto game. As you said, if he keeps hitting, etc.
Pitching defense timely hitting, ala 2010 with all the bombs from likes of Uribe Huff etc.. 3 days in a row now SPs have kept team in game and opponents have made critical error and defensive blunder that helped Giants to enough runs to pull out W. The kid C yesterday took a gamble trying to nail Tauchman off 3b, with his 3b shifted way over with Yaz at plate. throw went into the runner and 3b couldn’t get over to glove it, T scores.
Ron Darling used to pick guys off 2b and he had eye glance agreement with IF covering, “daylight” play where 2b snuck in behind runner taking too big a lead. But in case yesterday, 3b too far away from bag for play to work because of the shift vs. LH.
Yeah, Giants have scored 10 runs on this 3-game win streak, and I think 4 have come in on throwing errors — 3 via Culberson and the one last night.
good thing they have Grave Duggar’s power to propel this during these dark hitting times.
4th HR given up by Doval in his 9 innings of work so far. Don’t question pitch selection as much as location of sliders that translate to high rate of danger.
Been some very exciting and fun games so far. Starting pitching and timely HRs have been the Giant story this year. Our batting average as a team sucks, but it seems like every position player that they’ve thrown out there, has contributed to a W. Even Casali, who is only hitting around a buck and change without any HRs, but you call 5 shutouts in a row and it’s come on down time (kinda like having 2 starting pitchers in the lineup).
I’m also very happy with how the Brandons, Posey and Longo have been performing, hoping they are able to keep that up.
Yep, these games have been a lot of fun. When it comes to Giants baseball I have an inner doom meter that I have been expecting to engage. But like you said it is truly possible for this to continue mostly because I feel the total team effort and attitude is already in place.
Haha, inner doom meter. I think just about any Giants fan who survived the ’70’s has that meter. lol
It’s clear so far that what’s driving the team success is pitching and defense.
Pitching is very ground out oriented.
Giants are in the top 10, top 5 or even top in MLB in major pitching and defense categories.
This so far, even though I don’t see the Pen being settled nearly at all yet.
I was looking for good starter vs. Pen breakdowns, but couldn’t find them quickly.
BTW, you can go nuts on stats in that baseballsavant website.
Aggregate fielding: 1st (11 errors, Astros 2nd with 14)
WHIP: 5th (1.13)
BA against: 4th (.213)
ERA: 6th (3.27)
Fewest total pitches: 4th. Very efficient.
Fewest Pitches per inning: 1st
Holds by relief: 1st (by a 5 hold margin over 2nd place)
Wild pitches: 3rd fewest
Ground Outs induced: 2nd most (infield D is key)
Air Outs induced: 22nd most (interesting, given Oracle dimensions; outfield D appears far less critical than infield)
GOs to AOs ratio: 1st
Ks per 9 innings: 22nd (makes sense, since 2nd leading MLB in ground outs induced)
BBs allowed per 9 inn: 10th
HRs allowed: 24th (very good, just a tad over 1 allowed per game)
Save opps: 1st (means ton of close games, not a lot of margin for error)
Shutouts pitched: 1st (6 so far)
Barreled %: 2nd best
Launch angle: 1st (lowest angle, consistent with lots of ground outs, giving up few HRs)
Topped ball %: 1st
1st pitch swing induced: 3rd (leads to count leverage)
The team is also 3rd in the NL for HRs and 5th in the NL for OPS.
Good stuff there, snarkk. “Air outs,” ha, hadn’t heard of that one.
Clown hit on the points I wanted to make. Giants are 5th in SLG and OPS in NL, and 6th in OBP.
MLB-wide, they are 10th in OBP and OPS, and 11th in SLG.
They also have a +33 run differential…trailing only the bums in the NL.
But I agree, it is principally SP that is getting it done, but the offense isn’t absolutely miserable, either.
I didn’t know I was suppose to jizz all over my self for a dude that hadn’t hit a HR since June 2019.GD has 7 HR’s in over 500 AB’s (that’s 1 in every 70 plus ratio which sucks for any outfielder which is a power position) Speed? 7 career steals thrown out 5 times obviously can’t figure out that part of his game as well.Career BA ..238…OBP ..286. . The Giants know what they have here, a guy they gave a decent crack to snare a job and he’s failed.Z knows this, and he wasn’t even around evaluating the lack of skills he displays on offense.He’s just a filler player due to injuries.I will credit him for his glove work which has never been his main issue,and his perseverance to continue to make those Sac runs back and forth.
One jizzes when and where one can . . . The eternal hunt for a viable homegrown outfielder continues despite the premature ejaculation that is GraveDuggar.
I tried to share this last night, but had a bad link. This offers explanation on the early hook for Disco last night. I didn’t feel it was a hunch or kneejerk reaction. Adds some credence that communication between the coaching staff and players is good in Giants-land.
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants/anthony-desclafanis-early-exit-giants-comes-good-reason
Yes I watched Kapler’s clubhouse explanation and I’m glad Disco manned up and said he wasn’t feeling well. Hope ALL players on the team take that approach. Maybe he learned a lesson when McGee didn’t say a thing after his Covid shot and wasn’t right against Miami and should of said something in a game they should of won..
Minor notes: Nick Tropeano 5 innings for Sac only allowed 1 run K’d 6. Bart K’d 4 times and got catcher/interference for 3rd error of season. hmmnn
richmond pitchers threw no hitter, led by Frisbee with 6 shutout innings 0 BBs 6 Ks. Ramos 0-4 3 Ks.
Will wilson hit grand slam for Eugene, HR #2 and is batting .379 with OPS in 1.200s
SJ lost Luciano 0-4 batting .147.
Whatever is going on with Mr Kotter, the players are buying into it. Including and especially the bore core. Sure it’s easier when you are winning, but even the most rosy of scenarios didn’t have this in the cards as the team hits the quarter pole.
Got to say that Mr Kotter is doing a hell of a job with what he has.
Coaching staff as well. Righetti’s magic with middle of the road pitchers who come here and thrive has continued beyond him.
Thanks for posting that,Chuck. Very much a new idea of communicating with your players. At least by baseball standards. You’d think this kind of thing would be elementary given the money being given to these guys. But it still is a mentality of shut up and play till something g falls off.
I have a subscription to the Athletic, so you do this article might not be new, because it is a subscription I can’t just post a link. Enjoy
There’s a sense of pride that comes with following a team that’s winning in unexpected ways. Take the 2016 Texas Rangers, who were almost outscored on the season, but won 95 games, mostly because they were 36-11 in one-run games. Analysts shrieked about this being unsustainable, but Rangers fans got to blow raspberries at them. They also got to half-believe that their team had discovered the secret to winning one-run games.
The Rangers were swept out of the postseason, losing the final game of the ALDS by one run. The next season, they were 13-24 in one-run games. Easy come, easy go. There is no secret to winning one-run games. Some methods of winning are more sustainable than others.
This year, the Giants are winning, and they’re winning a lot. Our job today is to figure out if this is sustainable. Can we find holes to poke, like we could with the ’16 Rangers (or 1997 Giants)? Or is the house of cards built with reinforced concrete and the appropriate permits?
What’s going very, very right for the Giants
• Buster Posey is going very, very right for the Giants. He’s already hit more home runs this season than he did in his past two full seasons. He’s hitting .128 points higher than he did the last time we saw him. It certainly doesn’t look like something that will stop soon.
If it continues, though, it will be exceptionally rare. There are just 40 seasons from a catcher 34 or older with an adjusted OPS better than average over 400 plate appearances, and six of them are from Carlton Fisk. The Giants are doing an excellent job limiting Posey’s workload — two games on, one game off is remarkable restraint, considering how well he’s hitting — but catchers in their mid-30s aren’t supposed to do this.
However, also consider that two of those seasons are from A.J. Pierzynski, who grounded into only eight double plays and hit 27 homers when he was 35. The Giants aren’t owed much by the universe anymore, but they might be owed this.
• The rotation isn’t just exceeding expectations; it’s shoving expectations into a locker and stealing their lunch money. Giants starters have pitched 205 innings this season, which means it’s a perfect time to compare it to a full season from a starting pitcher. The comparison works way better than it should.
STAT 2021 GIANTS 2009 MATT CAIN
W-L
14-6
14-8
ERA
2.89
2.89
IP
205.1
217.2
K
198
171
BB
61
73
HR
18
22
You don’t have to imagine a team with five Matt Cains in his prime because you’re watching it.
It makes sense when you understand that all of these pitchers (with the exception of Logan Webb) are veterans with a long track record of success when healthy. If they’re healthy, they should consider that success. It’s simple.
Except those words — “if they’re healthy” — echo around your brain like “dental plan” and “Lisa needs braces.” We knew this would be the Giants’ key to success the entire time, and while it’s not a surprise that Anthony DeSclafani or Alex Wood are pitching well, it’s something of a surprise that the Giants have had to rely only on Webb as depth so far, not Scott Kazmir, Conner Menez or Nick Tropeano.
Can it last? The rotation’s FIP is 3.32, so it’s not like they’re doing this because they’re stranding a lot of baserunners or doing something else unsustainable. They’re in the middle of the pack when it comes to FanGraphs’ Clutch metric, which is a good thing if you’re looking to predict future results.
All they need to do is stay healthy. He says, as thunder crackles in the background and the lights flicker.
• The timing of the offense has been better than expected, with the team hitting .251/.361/.436 with runners in scoring position, which is an OPS that’s 98 points higher than it is without runners in scoring position. The league hits a little better in these situations, but not that much better. The Giants’ timing has been impeccable, and if there’s something that comes closest to that Rangers example from the first paragraph, this is it.
You can choose to believe that the Giants have some special ability to hit with runners in scoring position, that’s fine. That kind of belief has generally been incorrect throughout the history of baseball, but it sure feels right while you’re watching the games. It’s probably nothing to count on, though.
• Tyler Rogers has been magnificent. He probably won’t finish the season with an 0.87 ERA, especially if he keeps up his 100-appearance pace. It’s OK to expect continued success. It’s probably unrealistic to expect uninterrupted wizardry.
• Things that you won’t find in this section: What the Brandons are doing (they did something like this last year), what Evan Longoria is doing (he’s cooling off, but his batted-ball data has been hinting at this kind of resurgence for a while). The major surprises are Posey and the rotation. The timing of the hits is a minor surprise, if only because those numbers aren’t much different than what we were expecting the Giants to hit in the first place. There’s also a minor surprise when it comes to Rogers’ effectiveness, but that’s all, relative to preseason expectations.
Now we look at what hasn’t gone right.
What’s actually going wrong for the Giants
• FanGraphs has statistics for relievers called “shutdowns” and “meltdowns,” and they’re roughly what you would expect. Shutdowns good, meltdowns bad. You will not be surprised that the Giants are near the top of the league when it comes to meltdowns. The bullpen has been very, very rough. We talked about Rogers, and Caleb Baragar hasn’t been scored upon in 13 appearances. After that, though? Pain.
If you go by expected statistics, there isn’t much of a difference between the main relievers — Rogers, Baragar, Jake McGee, Matt Wisler and José Álvarez all have a FIP between 3.30 and 3.70 — so it’s possible that the good luck is blending with the lousy luck and evening out.
But I don’t think this is a story about luck. This is a story about relievers, and so far, the Giants have had very sketchy contributions from most of them.
• There are a lot of key offensive contributors from last season who haven’t done Dickerson this year. Like Alex Dickerson, who was ineffective before he landed on the IL. Wilmer Flores is creeping up on his total number of walks in both 2019 and 2020, somehow, but he’s been an offensive phantom, for the most part. The Giants were encouraged by how Mauricio Dubón finished last season, and they were comfortable enough to make him the everyday center fielder, but he was a mess in April. Tommy La Stella was the biggest addition to the lineup this offseason, and he’s also been ineffective and hurt.
That’s four key cogs of the 2021 lineup who are doing absolutely nothing. And if we expand that definition to include the backup catcher who starts a third of the games, note that Curt Casali is hitting .106/.236/.128, which is far, far worse than he’s hit for his career. The key to the Giants was supposed to be the offensive depth, with 13 solid, competent hitters at all times. That hasn’t been the case so far, with more than a third of those hitters struggling mightily and only one dramatically exceeding expectations.
• Every team is dealing with injuries. From Baseball Prospectus:
… the injury-wracked first half of 2020 has been exceeded, or almost exceeded, by the 2021 season so far. At similar points in the two seasons, there are more pitchers on the IL this year compared to last year. And there are more hitters on the IL this year than last year.
Still, it’s notable that this scourge has absolutely not passed the Giants by. Donovan Solano has played in just 17 games. Mike Yastrzemski missed two weeks. Dickerson is still out, as is La Stella. Aaron Sanchez went on the IL almost as soon as Johnny Cueto came off, and the bullpen was counting on Reyes Moronta as a late-inning righty.
The Giants haven’t been decimated by injuries, but they’ve definitely been affected negatively. They’ve had to rely on their depth, both in the lineup and their rotation. To the team’s credit, the Giants have weathered these storms.
So what’s the point of an exercise like this?
It’s not to tell you that EVERYTHING IS GREAT. It’s not to scream REPENT, DOOM IS AT HAND. It’s to look for the obvious red flags, the statistical quirks and unexpected performances.
If a team is doing better than expected, and it’s because there are several players exceeding their projections along with some luck in run differential, one-run games or both, be skeptical.
If a team is doing better than expected, and just as many things are going right as wrong, be skeptical … of those preseason expectations.
Not all of these developments are created equal. The relative dominance of the Giants rotation is much more surprising than a down season from Flores, Dickerson and the rest. The starting pitching is the most important storyline of the season so far. It’s why the team is in first place, with the best record in the National League. And it’s also very much unexpected. Don’t minimize that part of the Giants.
The entire roster, though, isn’t filled with surprises and unsustainable performances. We’ve already talked about the Giants hitting the ball harder than most teams while their pitchers have induced weaker contact than most teams. Considering that those are happening without eye-popping statistics from everyone who isn’t Buster Posey or a starting pitcher, that’s a good sign that augurs well for the near future.
The Giants aren’t a mystery, in other words. No smoke, no mirrors, no “Gorkys Hernández dominating the National League.” Some things have gone right. Some things have gone wrong. Yet their record is 22-14. Their Pythagorean record is 22-14. Their record, according to BaseRuns, is 21-15.
It’s OK to be surprised to this point. If it keeps up, though, the surprise should fade away. The Giants just might be a normal baseball team, and that’s a compliment.
Only Brisbee writes like this…thank god for Baggs.
Kev, you said you’d been in hospital for 4-5 days–everything OK?
His style his wearisome, but at least the analysis has always been built around the data.
Hey, they are winning so all is well. If the SP holds up, and if Cueto can regain his form, this team could even surpass my 80 win prediction. They don’t need to be lights-out with the hitting, but more consistency would go a long way.
Reinforcements are on the way back.Barrels will make a huge difference with his bat.Lesser degree with LaStella, but both will take a load off of Flores who they are forced to play more then they want right now by default ..
At least three of the homers Doval has allowed have been on the fastball, and I thought it was all four. Could be wrong. Either way, he has electric stuff and just needs to sort out his location.
ooh Frank Gore turns 38 today, ancient for running back…how much left in tank for the man from The U?
I was hoping the Niners would sign him and and use him as a injury replacement. If not then I think when he’s ready to retire we will sign him to a one day contract. To me he is one of the greatest 49ers of all time, tough as nails.
1. Mike Tauchman (L) LF
2. M. Yastrzemski (L) RF
3. Buster Posey (R) C
4. Brandon Belt (L) 1B
5. Evan Longoria (R) 3B
6. B. Crawford (L) SS
7. Wilmer Flores (R) 2B
8. Steven Duggar (L) CF
9. Kevin Gausman (L) P
Am I getting carried away or would it not make a little sense to swap the Sock Man & The Grave Duggar in the line up? I already know Kat’s answer…
I dunno, it’s nice to have some speed at the bottom of the LU. Plus that’s a lot more pressure I don’t think he needs right now.
Also I love Sock Man and I think he’s got the perfect mentality to bat 1
Tauchman coming in 4-25…tough going since first 3-4 with bomb. did have 3 BBs the other day.
I still don’t trust the “wizardry” of Tyler Rogers. On the other hand, I think he’s already done more for the team in 1/4 of a season than most relievers do in a full. Time to lighten up. Rogers and Doval offer quite a late-inning contrast. I do like that.
Now that Yaz has the stache, can we finally end the who does he look like debate? Obviously, a young William Faulkner.
Looks like most of the team is buying into Mustache May..
Hey whatever works, and right now it’s working and ballplayers are superstitious, so go full Cousin ITT if you like..
The Grave Duggar should be wailing at those nice low strikes that most lefties love.
He lets far too many of them go by…
Williedav, I had something growing in my blood. I had more tests, X-rays and blood drawn than I ever have, but at least I know all my organs are fine. They put me on some heavy duty antibiotics, at home with a mid-line in my arm so I can administer them intravenously. I do the injection once a day till June first, blood drawn once a week to make sure the blood culture is not growing. Did find out I have a leaky heart valve, nothing serious, every 2 years or so they will take a look at it. Thanks for asking.
wow, hang in there man.
hang tough, IK
Damn, Irish. Glad in the end you should be OK. That’s some weird shit.
Wow. WTF? He shoulda been out at 2nd.
That was good pitching by Gausman.
Damn. Gasman bringing the splitter.
Roger Craig would be proud. He always said too, if thrown properly it won’t ruin your arm.
Craig tore through a lot of arms though.
Jeebus. Big strike zone.
That looked like a break there as well.
Not sure if there’s less traffic on the bases or on that bridge going into Pittsburgh.
Craw bomb!
Bomb Core!
Craw likes that ballpark.
As to the beautiful bridge over the river, why would peds be there during a game?
Always good to get a late inning Bomb to take the lead!
Crawford delivers!
Low enough pitch count, let the Ace finish them off for a CG shutout..
So glad to see Gasman coming out
BTW, those caps are dreadful.
What cause is baseball pretending to care about while they try to sell that garbage?
Oh well. This one is getting away. Soft hit crap.
I still don’t know who the color man is with Kuiper.
Estes or Winn?
Either one sucks…
Rhymes with testes
It’s Estes but he’s better then Winn are Lopez anyday..
Fuck that didn’t take long..
Fuck. Had to give up the single first. Oh well, here comes the ghost runner.
Actually not a bad job by Magoo…
I hate this rule as much as anyone, but this might be the only way the Giants get a runner on 2nd tonight.
lulz
Belt should handle this with one swing….
3B had Buster easy…
Always seem like we have a slug runner to start these extra innings BS..
Damn, two more hard hit balls get nothing. They’ve hit more than a few tonight. Luck is on the Pirates’ side tonight.
Huge strikeout out by Rodgers!
Wow, helluva job by Mr. Rogers.
Rodgers!!! Hell yes!! Great pitching!!
Rogers was terrific. He struck out Difu and didn’t get the call. Then a weak grounder moved the Manfred runner to third. And Rogers, cool’s can be, cut down the next two batters. What a clutch outing. I take back everything bad I ever said about the guy.
.
Slater blooper!
Slater with a duck fart RBI!!
Shit, on a 3-1 . . . .
Yaz letting him off the hook. Still feels like this is not going to end well.
Jesus!! Might as well go with 7 infielders no outfield..
That sucked.
Frustrating. That one’s on the lousy offense.
the offense is terrible, right? Gave Duggar 3rd best BA to start the day? FUCKING GRAVE DUGGAR? This offense is getting old, fast.
Good D and misfortune were a big factor. Yaz’s last AB was a bummer for sure.
do we dare turn our tired eyes to the aged POTD?
Yaz has actually been clawing back, his SP is pretty good. His biggest problem this year has been the K to walk ratio, which is probably not a stat you’re ever going to jizz to. But his lack of patience with a guy struggling to throw strikes was really frustrating. After Tauchman smoked a 3-1 pitch for out number 2. And Posey is on deck.
can’t jizz to any of that.
Tough loss. Stix called in the 11th and I relayed the losing moments to him. Looks like he’ll be back this weekend.
It appears the BP is the weakest link? Hopefully they can get it together, sooner rather than later