And Your Guess Is….
Really interested to see where everyone comes in with this year’s win total prediction. After last year I think it’s proven that no one knows anything. Still, coming off 107, where do you go from that? If they win 90 but drop 17 off 2021 that’s still pretty good, right? Or do you think losing Buster and Bryant and Gausman only amounts to a couple of wins losts?
Having watched everyone get better and being quite certain that Farhan has bungled this off season I think we’re all going to be throwing darts in the low to mid 90’s. I’m coming in lower, I am gonna say….90. Total guess having factored in last year’s outlier # plus losing players plus Farhan’s dicking around.
It’s funny because I answered Daniel’s Playing Pepper questions on March 11 just after the lockout ended. I had expected Z to do more in the short window he had to improve the team before opening day. He failed to do that.
Here is my answers to Daniel and his questions from 3/11
Craig Vaughan <craigvaughan60@yahoo.com>
To:Daniel Shoptaw
Fri, Mar 11 at 8:19 AM
1) Not including lockout issues, tell me about San Francisco’s offseason. What did you like about it, what didn’t you like about it, was there something you were hoping for that didn’t happen?
What I liked about the off season was….they did nothing. The single worst thing a team can do is sign a big bonanza free agent. It’s lazy GMing. Makes the owner and the fans feel good in the moment but those guys rarely pay off (at least compared to what they get paid). Let’s see what Farhan does with the mid level guys. I’m expecting a lot of action in this upcoming short free agent window.
2) There were a lot of articles written about the somewhat surprising success of the Giants last season. In your opinion, what was the most important factor in their record and can it happen again, at least in some regard?
I have no idea how they did that. I think I checked in with an 84 win total prediction (or something like that). It might have been less. What I learned about baseball last season was that Zaidi knows more than I do about how to build a baseball team. Do I think it will happen again? No.
3) Year 1 without Buster Posey. How strange is it going to be not to have him in the orange and black?
I move on from players very quickly. For me this won’t be hard to do at all. I’m not sold on Bart at all though so replacing Posey’s production will be a massive issue that will likely strongly impact their end of year win total.
4) Which prospect are you most excited for and when should they make their major league debut?
Probably Ramos but I don’t see any prospect making it this year so my enthusiasm for all of them is pretty low right now.
5) How do you see 2022 shaking out for this team? What’s your expectation of where they finish?
Well I was such an accurate prognosticator last year so….lqtm. I really do think Buster’s absence will be huge. His bat won’t be replaced but the way the pitchers responding to the delicate fingers he’d throw down, I’m really not sure our staff can overcome that. I predict they win 90 games, good enough to make it in to the new post season format.
6) Besides yourself and the team account, give me up to three good Giants Twitter accounts to follow.
I’m at war with most of the local scribes so I’ll leave all of them off this list except @extrabaggs who puts all those chumps to shame with his detailed reporting and writing. And I don’t follow any other twitter accounts that focus on the Giants.
A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball 
I think I joked I picked 100 wins last year after we went past 90 but I think I was at around 81 so let’s split the difference and say 90.
That seems very optimistic….
Would a nuclear war disrupt the season?
You don’t follow Slusser, Flav? I’m not even on twitter but I catch her posts on phone and sometimes I can follow a thread of posts before being asked to log in or sign up.
i do, forgot about her.
Ah cool. Saw that Messier and few others got moved out of Baffert’s barn.
Yeah, I mean, these owners aren’t idiots. And as I said a month ago Messier is winning the derby so why would ab owner just give that away? Fuck baffert.
Slusser’s good. She’s walking a fine line, coming over after decades covering the a’s AND working for the fucking chron; her tweets tend to be clear and informative, but she does not want to spar. (Unlike what’s his name Henry S who never met a fan he didn’t like.) Baggarly is just the best. Coverage is excellent and often edgy, and you can get a straight answer from him if you ask. Pavlovic isn’t a bad guy, but he’s basically a Gs’ employee — which gives him a bit of inside info from time to time, but dulls his edge.
94 wins.
Webb takes it to ace level.
Doval will be a lights out closer
Bart will surprise.
Belt will have a monster year
Joc won’t be on the roster at the end
Estrada will play a key role.
In Athletic today was column by ChiSox beat writer covering ST game Rodon started against them. Said some regular hitters were pumped up and chirping at him but only Eloy Jimenez homered, and that Rodon threw 98 in first inning and was at 96 in third. General tone seems to be everyone likes him a lot and hopes he stays healthy. Rodon himself said he likes coaching staff here, and his former coach in Chi came from Giants.
The also had a fantastic article on Affeldt. I wish I knew how to share it but it’s articles like that is the reason I pay for that subscription.
Adding extra bat to expanded roster not without complications. If LaStella unable to go by Opening Day, then:
Casali/Bart
Belt/Wilmet
Estrada/Dubon?
Craw and Longo
4 LH OFs–Yaz Wade Joc GD
Ruf and Slater=14.
If you slide Ramos in there for Dubon as RH OF, then it’s only for a month before one of them goes back to Sac. So would it be better if Ramos opened in Sac and played every day, or not? This is assuming of course there are no other injuries, especially to remaining BC. Plus, whenever LaStella is healthy enough he comes back to SF.
If Ramos can’t outplay GD, then we are in GD trouble.
88 wins.
When rosters go back to 26 though, and LaStella comes back, you’re talking 8 guys btw C and IF unless you want Flores as back up for 2b and 3b. Only leaves 5 for OF/DH. Yaz Wade Joc Ruf and Slater seem like locks. leaving both GD and Ramos in Sac.
89 wins. Braves were 88-73 and plus 134 run differential. Giants will score less than 804 of last year and give up little more than 594 from last year too. 765/625 approaches what Braves did.
87 wins, there is no way SD is as lousy as last year and I doubt we have the same success at Coors field as we did. Melvin knows how to run a team.
Yeah, didn’t like him going to the Rockies. He’s a solid coach.
87-89, so I guess that puts me at 88 with Chuck. WillieD’s analysis seems about right, although I think the run differential will be smaller than the 21 Braves’ total.
Posey and Bryant hit 25 HRs over 650 PAs. Pederson et al should make up for the 20 that Solano and Dickerson hit. That still leaves 216 from last year’s total. Here are the other key individual 2021 numbers:
Belt . . . .29
Crawford . . . .24
Yaz . . . . 25
Wilmer . . . 18
Wade . . . . 18
Ruf . . . . 16
Longoria . . . . 13
Slater . . . . 12
I could easily see 35-40 HRs disappearing from their total of 157 this year without any of those players having terrible or injury plagued seasons. That’s the argument for the expensive RH bat. But there are only 4 subs other than Casali (they’ll need the full bullpen). If they’d signed a Nick Castellanos, then either they don’t sign Pederson or Slater goes (assuming you want two IF subs). You have to subtract one or the other’s total from whatever the new guy produces. Castellanos hit 32 in a bandbox last year and hit poorly away from Cincy. Projecting a best case scenario, that’s a net of 20 HRs over Slater. However, Castellanos also had nearly 300 more PAs than Slater. That’s 300 PAs someone else isn’t getting. Say those 300 PAs would produce 8 HRs — The GDs total — then Castellano’s additional bomb output drops to 12.
Are they going with 14 pitchers out of the box? I could see us with 15 batters 13 pitchers to start. 2 catchers 2 primary DH/OF in Ruf and Jochead leaving 6 IF I think Wilmet and maybe Vossler as a lefty till LaStella returns and 5 other OF: Yaz Wade Slater GD and hopefully Ramos. Two go down when rosters shrink to 26. Question will be when in the season will both Belt and Crawford be down injuries at the same time. June 1 is my guess. That will be a good over under Flap contest.
*sigh*
Kat won’t like the inevitable re: Jaylin Davis. He needs a new organization to confirm he’s not a major leaguer. Looks like he’s not…
I’m going with 92, just because I think it’s possible and I’m feeling optimistic. The real question for me is whether the pitching will improve enough to compensate for loss in run production. (Last year, Gausman was great first half, not second; Webb was pretty good first half, CY second. Webb and Rodon together could provide that production, maybe better. Doval got a full season of seasoning in a month. Etc. Health? We’ll see.)
SD will be better this year; LA, too. But if the Giants are still in the running for the wildcard carnival in July, they’ll make one or two very good moves. If not, it’ll be due to pitching woes.
According to Spotrac, Estrada has an option left but MLBTR says he’s out of options. Does anyone know what the option status is for both Estrada and Dubon?
I’d go with MLBTR. Spotrac is wrong a lot.
Chron said both are out of options.
Thanks, guys, looks like that might be an issue for opening day.
Casali better hit above his weight in middle school for a change.
imo more important is how well he handles the pitching staff (which will have at least 2 new SPs) and brings Bart along. He was behind plate for number of shutouts last year, not an accident. Until Bart’s bat gets rolling, have to live with whatev you get from Casali.
Casali’s a fine backup, but I bet his success with the staff last year had more to do with the coaches and Buster than with his own mystical whispery expertise.
He was also hurt at start of last year, and did get off to terrible start, 7-67. 2 good months after that, 2 less than good ones at end.
Ok I’ll say it.
Casali sucks…
Back up C don’t have to hit to help the team.
Casali is only under contract through this season. He survives/helps Bart thrive, he’s done his job.
Well, he’s also nominally a bat off the bench. That can’t be a .146 hitter, pitcher whisperer or no.
A lot of us said it last year.
I was only 30 Wins off when I predicted 77 last season.
I’ll go with a round 90 Wins this time, another Wild Card berth.
Pitching should be at least as good this season as last.
Dodgers take division again. Too much talent…
42 point first quarter for GS, up 6 on ATL. Trae Young on all NBA Annoying team. Payton messing with him already, gotta love it.
Damn. Streameast to the rescue.
Jersey guys from St. Peter’s hanging with Purdue. good ballgame
I like the Peacocks. They’re not getting the breaks tonight. But those guards never quit.
Tough as nails these east coast teams!
St.Peters could become 1st 15 seed to a advance to the elite 8..
St Peters they definitely have the crowd support behind them..
Jaylin Davis could still get back( he’s still on the 40 man)if injuries occur.He can play all 3 Outfield spots, but his freaking bat is even less potent then Tauchman’s was..
13 out of 14 FTs.
good game!
SAINT PETERS PEACOCKS!!!!
Moving on the ELITE 8 as the yellow brick road goes thru Jersey!!
Elton John has a great song called “Where to Now, St. Peter?” And a great song and album named after the Yellow Brick Road.
Coincidentally, today is Elton’s 75th birthday!
And a few of his elaborate stage costumes back in the day looked like peacocks!
Tossup between Tumble Weed Connection Album,Are Mad Man Across the Water Album, some of Elton John&Bernie Taupin’s finest work together..
Didn’t know it was Elton John’s Birthday 🥳 today Happy 75th Birthday Elton..The stars
We’re all aligned for St Peters to win this game especially with your Where to know St Peter classic song!!
come on
Remember when that was a thing.
Bring on the Tar Heels!
And so it begins…
Only are Bore Core can get injured in ST not even playing a game..
I’m going with 92 wins!
That’s with the assumption the Mash unit heals up to be competitive for most of the year!
They should definitely keep an extra infielder like Estrada around especially if he’s out of options?
I wonder if they still make Geritol.