Seeing Through Zaidi
Imagine losing Rodon (which is happening soon) then doing almost nothing in the off season then trying to sell to the fanbase that you’re better this year because we picked up Hitch Maniger or whatever his name is and Sean Manaea.
It’s ludicrous.
But this was Farhan’s off season. Underwhelming AGAIN.
A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball 
For those fiscally responsible fans, he has kept us $70+ mil under the CBT. So, he has that going for him.
LOL. My name’s Charlie but not Johnson!!
This is the 10 year plan? Fucking Josh Bell and his 2 year deal is the #1 thing the Giants should have done. Niimmo at 8? Fuck that. I don’t want Correa at a deal like that. Even the Bassitt deal is palatable. Haniger is fine. Get 3 more guys like that.
I don’t know. If we went $50 mill over what the Yankers offered, would Judge have come here? Does all of baseball hate playing in the fog? Are he park dimensions that off-putting?
Manaea is yet another reclamation project.
Pirates signed Jarlin Garcia.
Tyler Beede is a Giant…that would be Yomiuri Giants of NPB. Former #1 draft pick out of Vanderbilt taken #14 in 2014, just didn’t work out as well some others from there.
San Dawg staked his reputation on Black Shoes Beede succeeding.
At least San Diego State alum Kawhi Leonard is back and rolling. Clips romped Celts by 20 last night. I love Leonard’s line drive mid range Js, and his overall game.
I’d argue a complete bust of a #1 pick. That hurts. Sabevans fumbled that one.
In between the ears, the dude was problematic from square one…
BTW, Stanfoo got smart hiring a Cal QB as head coach…
Plan Z-Man seems to have a better track record with trades, so hopefully he can find a few odds and ends that way. Also, I’d bet Murph was told to dust off BB9’s jersey recently.
Paul mentioned a trade yesterday and there has been a paucity of trades overall, particularly big ones, for the last few years. Seems like all the big news is free agent signings. Also, the NEXT BIG RULE CHANGE (I hate most of them) should be allowing clubs to trade draft picks. No idea why this hasn’t happened yet.
I really do not like Belt, but ironically, he is the PERFECT fit for this new rule change banning defensive shifts and consequently, I hope the Giants re-sign him. Gallo, Seager and Freeman are also notorious pull hitters and they will benefit too.
A few extra ground balls getting through are not going to make that much difference to Belt. It’s the power he exhibited while healthy that make trying him as a platoon at 1B compelling.
I think James is right here and we are only talking about few extra singles over course of a season. what I read in reports about when minor leagues banned shift was that BA didn’t go up dramatically. If you hit ball on ground you are still likely to be out. For LHs, primary difference would be extra fielder in short RF can no longer be IF.
SS can still play a few feet to left of 2b vs. LH, and 2b can do same for RH, close to bag just not directly behind it. See what happens; there was a league where they drew lines on field for middle IFs had to start, angled outward from 2b.
Stolen bases though, iirc did rise a lot with new rules in minors.
Willie, you obviously equate a “few” with 25 (Seager) or even 13 (Belt). When I was in school a few meant 3, maybe 4. Again, look at the links I provided (and there are plenty of other links regarding these facts). lqtm . . .
That would make me a lone happy fan, but I don’t see room for him on the roster, unless they do manage a trade.
Josh Bell is supposedly a subpar defender and probably a marginal upgrade on offense over whoever the Giants plug in there. He would have been a nice addition, like Haniger. The moaning about his “streakiness” would have eventually drowned out the recent clamor for his signing. Manea is hardly a reclamation project. He had a few very bad games, but the numbers other than ERA remained solid.
Still waiting for something big. Please sign Rodon and/or Correa for too many years and too many $$$. I don’t care if they both break down in year 2.
What numbers would those be?
8-9?
1.3 whip?
4.96 ERA?
50-41 career?
4.06 ERA career?
The mausoleum is a pitcher’s park, as is Petco. His numbers at either place aren’t anything to write home about.
The career WHIP is 1.2 and he has a very good K to walk ratio. It’s possible that his numbers last year signal a decline, but it’s more likely that the few losses where he got pasted distorted his numbers. Ok, nothing to write home about, but he’s been consistently solid over the previous years.
That era isn’t very solid. He’s pitching in pitcher-friendly parks and his numbers are high.
Whatevs. He’s a 3-4 rotation guy I hope.
Sad to hear about death of Mike Leach, an offensive innovator as college coach. When he had Gardner Minshew ( aka the ‘stache) at Wazzu in 2018, the guy threw for 4776 yards and I think 38 TDs and was named Pac 12 offensive player of the year. They were hella fun to watch.
Disagree emphatically James. I wish I had the exact or near exact number for Belt, but I do for Seager (one of my favorite players) . . . 92.5% of Seager’s plate appearances have come against a shift last season, so it follows that his contact and efficiency will rise going forward.
Seager has lost 50 total hits since 2020 due to the positioning of opponents (look it up). Plug in 50 hits and he would have batted near/over .300.
I’ve only read about this in the aggregate. A while ago, I did look at Belt’s BA on ground balls over the years and saw very little difference between the pre-extreme shift and later years.
Looking at Seager’s stats, they don’t seem unusual. He’s batted 232 over his career on GBs. The league average has probably been a couple points higher than that over his career. In 21, he batted 259 on GBs, well above the league average.
Here are 2 sites . . . First one is regarding Seager and as this site indicates, he has lost quite a few hits where he would easily be hitting .300 (the other site I alluded to, indicated it is plus 50 since 2020).
https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2022/09/12/corey-seager-and-others-who-should-benefit-from-the-shift-ban/
Similarly, Belt would benefit too and it is NOT a “few” as you indicated. This is from 2019, where he would have gained a NET 13 hits from a total of 25 (9 hits gained via the shift, minus the 25 = 13). Not certain he would do this next season, as he is getting up there in age and he’s injury prone as fuck, but lacking alternatives, I wouldn’t mind him coming back.
https://www.cleveland.com/tribe/2020/02/aligned-right-todays-mlb-hitters-still-struggle-to-beat-the-infield-shift.html
I don’t doubt that the shift has an impact, although its biggest is still on fan perception, IMO. I’d be curious to see if they have an analysis from 2021, when Seager did hit 300 and he outperformed the rest of the league on groundballs or 2020 when he was at league average and also hit 300. Are the same players the big losers from year to year?
Picking a random pre-shift year, 2006, the batting average on groundballs was 240. In 2021, it was 239.
def not getting Rodon
Would relief prevail among your mixed feelings over a 6 year deal at 30-35 million per?
With SF, that is.
Ah in great game of baseball each team gets 27 outs per 9 innings.
so if you don’t have a lot of exciting hitters, might as well focus on getting the exciting hitters on the other team out.
We need the pen help. But need so much more.
What is Benintendi gonna get? He’s kinda hurt too much, but he’s a leadoff guy and a solid hitter. Something our outfield lacks.
They still have the fucking money for Rodon.
Make it so.
I love the Stripling signing. He’s a good pitcher. Agree with Flav, it makes any notion of getting Rodon moot (I still think the Yankees need him as I said the other day and they will overpay significantly to get him). If they are one and done with Judge, they have made zero improvement to that team.
Ahhh, thought Stripling was a reliever. Oh well. We still have the money.
Ah yes, who could forgot Stripling’s MLB debut with the Bums, when he got yanked in the 8th of a no-hitter and the Giants rallied to win.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN201604080.shtml
Blade I looked at both articles you posted. For the first one from SIS site, I think they are overly optimistic that so many of ground balls Seager put in play would be hits without shift. They cannot know where the IFs (1b/2b/ss) would be positioned and group all groundballs/short line drives together; are these 2 or 3 hoppers that might bleed through or what? They’re guessing where 2b would “normally” be. Unless he scorched all these, some pct (my guess is most) are still going to be outs.
It won’t take long for Statcast data all clubs have to figure out how best to position 2b vs. LHs.
The other one has data for hits taken away and hits given–Santana wound up +11. In other words, 2 singles a month. More than “a few” as I said? Sure. But relative value of 2 singles a month, well…
Willie, you and I are fans . . . and then there are “uber fans” and professionals who track this shit. No dissing you, but every day and twice on Sunday, I am going to believe these folks who track this stuff.
By the by, there are literally a dozen or more articles regarding MLB players who benefit from this rule change. Most indicate Seager is the one whom will benefit most. Here’s another one and I am only linking it to prove that those previous articles weren’t unique, as well as another reason, i.e., if some hitters will benefit . . . some pitchers will suffer (Webb). Yes, this article lists the pitchers who will NOT benefit and Webb is near the top of the list.
Back to Seager – per this article,
“Let’s try to put this in a little bit of perspective. What if Seager had been playing under the rules that might go into effect as soon as next season? Fifty extra hits over the past three seasons would lift his batting average 49 points from .282 to .331.”
https://theanalyst.com/na/2022/08/who-figures-to-benefit-the-most-if-the-defensive-shift-is-banned/
Yeah and all those professionals had us finishing 3rd or worse in 2021.
JK, you can analyse shit to death but until it’s implemented there’s no way to go back and determine with any kind of accuracy who would have been where when a shift wasn’t on and what will happen going forward.
We will see what happens. I just don’t think it is gonna set the baseball world on fire. Maybe a 0.10-0.15 jump in averages?
Jayson Stark in Athletic, Dec 5 2022 on effects of shift in MLB: “The consensus among Front Offices I’ve surveyed is that it’s going to change the game sooo (emphasis his) much less than you’d think.” They did not think anyone would have as many as 30 more singles a season.
The geeks who publish stuff challenge each other all the time, just like we know-nothings :-). Some players will benefit and some won’t. The degree to which that’s the case I’m less interested in than the overall effect the changes will have. I looked at batting average on balls hit on the ground from several years between the late 90s through 2022. There’s no significant variance. The drop in batting average certainly has other explanations, e.g, the rise in average fastball velocity.
As for Seager, I still don’t get how he can hit .259 on ground balls in 2021, which is really pretty good and lucky, and nevertheless be a prime victim. He beat the shift and lost to it in a single year! In 2022, he hit 146 on grounders, which is more than a correction for 21 and aligns with his status as the biggest shift loser. But see 2021. I’m not convinced there’s some long term trend — just a really unlucky year.
“Jayson Stark says . . .” Willie, that’s for the entire MLB and I agree. Who hits into these shifts? Pull hitters and lefthanded hitters primarily. Again, all of the articles I cited indicated about a dozen players that would primarily benefit. Regardless, I am done with this subject. Believe whatever my friend.
I vote no on Carlos Correa. The Astro defrauding of MLB in ’17 was literally a criminal act, and he’s been the Astro most unapologetic and defiant about it. At least some of the other Astros showed a tiny bit of shame about it.
Ha, did not see this. But I don’t care one bit about his lack of remorse, especially given the politics of most baseball players.
tend to agree with you on this, James.
If I had to choose one:
Rodon, too many years, too much money
Correa, too many years, too much money
Reynolds, the 3 best prospects gone
I’d go with Correa, but be happy with any of them.
Speaking of crime, I saw a really good Columbo episode last night. Leonard Nimoy as a heart surgeon who commits a murder. In this episode of Columbo, there’s a scene where Columbo gets the angriest I’ve ever seen him. The Nimoy character, like a lot of Columbo villains, has moments where he’s thinking he’s gotten away with it, and is mocking Columbo and even laughing at him (never a good move), and Columbo picks up something off the surgeon’s desk and slams it down on the desk and says something angrily like “I believe you committed the murder and I’m going to prove it!” The Nimoy character stops laughing and looks a little nervous. There’s always that moment when the adversary realizes they’ve underestimated Columbo.
Columbo was even more disheveled than usual in this episode, as his wife had the flu or something, and Columbo hadn’t gotten much sleep. There’s a funny moment when Columbo uses the murder weapon (which has no fingerprints on it) to crack open a hardboiled egg that is going to be his breakfast.
Will Geer (of Grandpa Walton fame) has a nice guest-starring role also.
I wonder if Columbo is the only mystery series on TV, or in movies, or in books, ever, where the viewer knows who the murderer is the whole way, and we see the chess game of the detective vs. the villain the whole way.
Ah, YouTube has the scene. 4 minutes which show the essence of the show. It was a water pitcher he slams on the desk.
Columbo not seeing the door with his blind eye is classic.
Yeah, he almost hits his head on the door, and then does a little apology which looks like it’s directed as much to the door as to the doctor.
I like how Columbo kind of trolls the villains a bit sometimes. When the doctor comes storming out of the hospital room Columbo asks him if he has a match so he can light his cigar. The doctor just glares at him and keeps walking.
If this means we’re getting Belt back, fuck the shift ban.
Why Correa though? Crawfish goes to 3rd? 2nd? They alternate? I don’t see the need for Correa. Yeah, he’s got power and is a good defender and yeah, he’s better than Crawford at this point is HIS career, but Crawfish is our $18 million DH/PH? Plus we have Luciano behind him.
We need OFers.
I think Correa would be a very expensive mistake…
Correa is the best player left. It’s not even close. He’s 28. Judge and Nimmo were the best FA CFers.
Nimmo’s greatest skill was timing his FA status…
The versatile veteran Jurickson Profar could be a decent pickup.
I was surprised to see how long he’s been around.
I think I just like his name.
Pretty sure he beat us a ballgame this season…
You and Chuck sound like hardcore Zaidians.
I want another outfielder. One who can hit.
Belt will be helped by the no shift rule. A dozen “extra” hits is worth something. Assuming he actually plays 100 games or more. I don’t care, at this point, whether he plays with SF, the Rangers or whomever. I’d prefer a much younger cat as first sacker…
Would you sell the farm for Reynolds? Benintendi doesn’t solve the CF defense problem.
It’s weird, but I’m not big on Reynolds. I’d prefer to trade JD Davis to the Snakes for Varsho. AZ needs a a 3B with RH pop and we need a CFer with pop. Plus, Varsho is the ultimate Zaidi guy, he can play CF or catch and he can hit the long ball.
Reynolds is a Zaidi kinda guy, too, it’s just that he’s, like, obviously good to everyone. Varsho is kinda like Schwarber, except he’s young and versatile. Doesn’t take enough walks yet. He’d be a great add, though, and, yes, Davis is one of the few players on the roster who’s decent trade bait.
I just want some fucking guys that aren’t platooney OFers. Does that make me a Zaidi fan?
Whatevs.
Benintendi is a true lead off guy. As long as it isn’t fucking Nimmo money, do it.
The notion of sticking with Crawford, pleading that you’re hemmed in by his presence and the prospect in the minors, when you have the chance to add a great player at a price you’re uncomfortable with. That’s what I meant. Even if they sign an OFer, there’s still going to be some version of a Yaz/Slater platoon. Ideally, it wouldn’t be in CF.
Dubs just look overmatched vs Bucks.
Warriors are playing in slow motion. They may lose by 40.
Dubs look bad. Bad defense and to many fouls again. Sports radio says SF talking to Swanson. I’d prefer him over Correa
Swanson is a good player, if he’s a cheaper, shorter deal than Correa, go for it. He’s not exactly a Zaidi player in that he hacks too much. That’s not usually a good thing in the long run, but if they can get him, that would be cool.
James, I don’t think I’m a “Zaidian” – I just can’t stand these mostly insane albatross contracts.
Giants never had anything in the 9 figure range but look at all the anguish we got from Zito, Smarj, Gamer, Cain Longoria, etc. There’s gotta be some kind of middle ground…
But Farhan completely agrees with you. What should he do other than what he’s already doing?
As good as we looked against Boston we look as awful against Milwaukee.
Stripling is ok. His numbers last year need context. He pitched in 32 games, 134.1 IP. Compare Webb and Rodon. Thus, compare their WAR numbers last year with his, too. And that was 33 yr old Stripling’s best in a while. Looks like a 4-4.2 inning starter. Hope I’m wrong.
Signing Rodon last winter the moment the transactional gate opened looked like the start of something great. It wasn’t. It still isn’t. Hard to imagine the Giants giving him a long-term deal now. The bullpens in SF and Sacramento better be good.
That over-the-top Nimoy Columbo episode, playing against the silly Spock archetype, is an infamous outlier. When I come across it in re-runs, I usually watch part of it. There are quite a few detective thrillers that open with the criminal committing the crime and then follow the gumshoe on the trail thereafter. Probably the most famous is Crime and Punishment.
Funny, I almost posted that Farhan was quietly going to institutionalize the 4.1 inning start, since the platoon thing upsets the public so much. Just think, if they do sign Rodon, SF can roll out two starters per game! Zaidi is God!!
Institutionalize? No. More flexible. The 4.1 IP starter will be the, what’s it called, mean? With any luck, our blue-collar hero Webb will continue to overperform. Others will not. 33 yr old Stripling (not really apt, in mlb terms — Rodon is 30) fits all too well.
May the Giants have zero quality starts in 23!
Suddenly, I’m more optimistic about signing Rodon again. I’ve always liked Correa.
OMFG we signed Correa 13/350!
Damn, beat me to it.
Giants gets Correa 13Y/350M.
I just texted the boss…
He’ll be a Giant when I’m dead…
Gotta be opt outs somewhere, right?
Funny I was out watching HS game and just got back, scrolled through Xoot’s post…and bam.
yeah, I hit it 14 minutes ahead of everyone else. And that was after my older son texted me. He’s a real fanatic.
No opt outs per the reliable Heyman.
This is rock bottom…
The length of that contract gave me similar morbid thoughts.
Likely a better signing in the long run than Judge…
The guy has never had 160 hits in a season.
One of the dumbest signings ever.
Prove me wrong…
5.4 WAR in 2022. Career .836 OPS, avg. 28 HRs per season. Pretty good.
Worth $360MM? No, but is anybody worth that?…
Nobody is worth that…
Correan WAR.
Only on B/R can you average 28 HRS per season while never hitting more than 26…
You made me look. Too funny.
I just found out that Jack Reed, nicknamed “Mantle’s Legs” recently passed away.
His only major league HR was hit off Phil Regan in the 22nd inning of a game vs. Tigers in 1962.
How’s that for an unbreakable record?
Mantle’s legs?
He was known for being Mantle’s late inning defensive replacement…
I’m mixed. I think it will work out better than Judge. An IF that consistently hits 25 homers is hard to find. A LOT of money.
So we added Correa, Hanniger, Striplin, Manea lost Rodon. Were better than we were 4 days ago. By a lot.
PS Not concerned about Craw. If we get lucky and hits better it might be an issue. i think consensus among us is Craw is done. He will be a part timer. Hopefully Correa will defer a little and he can play 3rd or 2nd once in a while
13 years?!?!? Wow. Correa’s contract ends the same year as Bobby Bonilla’s, so there’s that.
$19 million for a platoon OF/PH, and $19 million for a part-time SS/DH. Can’t accuse these guys of being cheap.
Can we get a reliever and an OFer?
Welcome to $25.00 beers!
No one is coming to to the ballpark to see Correa.
They won’t sell a single season ticket tomorrow…
I’m looking at Yankees tickets for April Fools.
I’m halfway to my Argentina – France projected tune up for the World Cup title. Messi was great in today’s 3-0 win in their Argentina v. Croatia tilt. His penalty kick was perfectly blasted in the high right corner. The goalie guessed right and still couldn’t save it. His jaw-drop dribbling 70 minutes into the game while being hounded and grabbed and then deftly pushing the centering pass thru defender’s legs to perfectly assist on the 3rd goal was classic — everything a 3rd world kid sees and then dreams about while he goes out to practice alone with a shabby ball on a bald piece of dirt in some favela. I’m no soccer fan, but that was some world class athletic skill on the big stage for a 5′ 5” mid-30s dude who did all that in his 1000th career game at the highest level…
I’m really impressed with Correa’s SB totals the last two years. Unfortunate that he had to mess with perfection last year.
While you were sleeping, indeed.
I think we are still about $30 mil under the CBT, room to add more.