How badly do we Need a Fast Start?
Not that badly…..
Too much is being made of having to play our first 22 of 33 on the road. If anything, I am EXPECTING them to start slow. The Giants wouldn’t admit this, but I bet they start the season playing a little tight—World Champs, everyone is gunning for them—if they go out trying to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke it wouldn’t shock me if they play a little tight in April. Couple that with the uncertainty of Wilson, Ross being hurt, Belt starting the season in Fresno, Freaking Rowand playing, AND the fact that we are playing most of our first 33 on the road? That’s a slow start waiting to happen, baby….
But it doesn’t mean a thing. You play 162 games, not 33. We are going to hit the Summer months with most of our games at home, Belt manning the 1-bag full time and I think we are just going to steam roll June through August (barring any major injuries)……
Baseball isn’t like football, a sport where a fast start is usually so important. So I’m not going to sweat FOR A SECOND what is likely going to be a slightly under .500 April. And you shouldn’t either……
A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball 
Thanks, Doc. I feel so much better now.
Interesting one-day turnaround with the pair of split-squad wins. Hitters are picking it up. That game vs. Cleveland brought out the power from both Brandon Belt and Roger Kieschnick, each poling a two-run dinger. My personal take on Belt starting in L.A. later in the week has swung around like a barometer in a storm. Right now its gone a bit to the plus side. His ST stats are looking pretty nifty. At 2-4 with a run scored and 3 batted in he’s currently clipping along at a .306 rate, with a sweet OBP of .358 and a SP of .532. These are stats you expect outta a starting ML first baseman.
Twin must have some occulted Leprachaun genes or something. Just yesterday he touted Kieschnick as likely to make a nice jump after last seasons injury problem at Richmond. Sure nuff. The tater came accompanied by a 2-3 performance with a pair scored and the two driven in.The performance likely gave him a boost on the depth chart in the O.F., with Neal, Peguero and Brown adding to a nice flychaser talent pool.
Suspects Nate and Eli both turned in good days at the plate and so did SS prospect Brandon Crawford, who had his first sparkling batting exposition of he spring. With his defensive skills, Crawford only needs to hit a couple licks (say a .250 BA and a .300 OBP ) to start at SS. Surely the Brass is looking at that single year contract with Miggy the T. with just that scenario in mind. Other ends of the suspect list, Ishi and Row-Row downed their status a bit more yesterday and now are respectively hitting at .200 and .213 clips for the spring. Plonking a pair of doubles. Curly Joe Fontenot also added to the look of depth in quality for the 2011 Giants.
One of the sweetest stories of the Spring has to belong to Ryan Vogelsong, growing up a Giant and then helping to bring in Schmidty in that trade with the Pirates; Vogelsong struggled in the Bigs, went off to Japan for a spell, did a year in the Minors and now, with a 3.54 ST ERA, has made an excellent case for being scooped off the scrap-heap and tagged for the long-man role. We’ll find out this week. If Wilson goes DL then why not the pair of comebackers: Vogelsong and Kroon? What a story.
Baggs also thinks Belt will open in Fresno and he hasn’t had the dominating ST that would force their hand. As Baggarly notes, a few more hard hit balls might change things. Hope that’s the case, the LU is better if he’s in it. Here’s Baggarly’s guess on the roster:
Rotation (5): Lincecum, Sanchez, Cain, Zito, Bumgarner
Bullpen (7) Affeldt, Casilla, Ramirez, Romo, Lopez, Mota, Runzler
Catchers (2) Posey, Whiteside
Infielders (7) Huff, Sanchez, Tejada, Sandoval, Fontenot, Ishikawa, DeRosa
Outfielders (4) Torres, Burrell, Rowand, Schierholtz
Disabled list: Wilson, Ross
No, we don’t have the lowly ‘stros and pirates to gently ease us into the season like last year’s first week but as long as our starting pitching is right it should be able to hide those injuries pretty well. I wouldn’t pay too much attention to the starters getting hit hard late in ST – got to believe them boys are just hitting their pitch count and getting off the mound ASAP.
Baggarly thinks Rowand will start in CF opening day because of the lefty. And sure enough, as Baggs predicted, that’s all the posters want to talk about.
Whole bunch of Snarkks out there.
I posted the Opening Night lineup last night. Rowand vs Kershaw 1-8 w/ 2Ws; Shitholtz 2/4 with a 2B and a W. Who should start? Whole bunch of Dennis’ out there too.
Correction: you posted what Baggarly thinks the LU will be be.
You can’t fool the sharp-eyed Twin.
People talk about Rohand because it’s clearly the most distasteful prospective move of the young season if he stays. It helps management know that the fans are interested, and paying attention to the roster. If you’d rather they burn up the airwaves and blogs with talk about the state of Tejada’s legs, go ahead…
No, they don’t “talk” about him. “Talk” is not characterized by spittle leaking from the mouth…
I was being polite..they snarkkle.
The fans were ahead of the curve when their opinion on Benitez was made known loud and clear to Sabes. When the fan exasperation reached meltdown level, Sabes made the right move, finally, to dump him. Maybe he got hit by a little spittle…
So Sabean thought Armando was doing just fine until some patriot fans dissuaded him? Right.
Glad to hear from you, Dennis. Giants are 43-0 when Dennis hates the LU..
And just how slow a start should/can we expect in the first 33 games? 16-17,15-18, 14-19?
What if we bust outta the gate 12-21. Can I ask the ref to stop the fight. Can I declare it football season?
We might have to wait awhile for the pigskin this year. I’ll just reach for the towel.
Don’t pay any attention to Flavor. Despite yesterday’s respite, he’s been in Full Doomer Jacket most of the Spring. Giants were one of the best road teams in the league last year, no reason to expect less this year from a better team. 19-14 sounds about right…
I’m more concerned about the lack of off days in the late summer than the road trip now. They have 5 fucking days off in April. The only “grueling” trip in this fearsome run of 33 is the final one — 9 straight away games at the end of April and beginning of May. But they play the Pirates, Nats and Mets. The first 33 could turn into a very good opening roll for the team.
I hope Baggs is wrong too. Even if he isn’t, I’d rather see deRosa in the LU than either Rowand or Nate. He could play RF even at home and is a smarter hitter.
Road trip(s) shouldn’t bother Sf. It will be nice to face SD without having to worry about AGon. And it will make coming home that much better for everyone. Facing all the West teams on the road early just means they come here later.
I predict the same as ED SPE. His judgement is paramount.
the key to a successful start is to hover around .500 until the all-star break. doesn’t matter what anyone else is doing if you’re near .500. then you get rolling in july, hot in august and september and blast into the post-season on a roll. I refer you to the Padres of last year. off to a good start, stayed hot but then, petered out. far better to start mediocre and get on a late roll. What you don’t want is to be 10 games under .500 have use your hot streak to just get back there.
If you’ve got a lot of roadies early, that means you have a lot of home games later. Depends on how you’re playing at the time. If you’re hot on the road or at home, you win. If you’re playing crap, you lose at either location. You’ve got a bit of an edge at home, but not as much as in other sports. So, I don’t see a big issue here…
Yes, I meant that exactly. Sabes was clueless that Armando sucked until he heard the boos at ATT. Exactly the case. It was out of the blue. Sabes was totally blindsided by Armando’s abject failure — yes, he only found out after being alerted to the suddenly no-longer-secret suckage by enraged, spittle spewing SF fans. Like Rohand, Armando’s contract situation had nothing to do with Sabes not flushing him until the roof caved in…
BEST…BB…EVER!!!
If the Loonie Fringe had a main spittle point it was the drafting of pitchers instead of position players…that worked out rather well. After Tim he was able to shift strategy.
CF T. Graham, SS Fontenot, RF Nate, DH Eldred, 1B Belt, 3B Rohlinger, LF Ishi, C Eli, 2B Bond, P Sanchez
Believe it or not, I actually like today’s lineup. You know what that means — 14-2 Royals
Denny: I see us going 15-18 to start the year for all the specific reasons I listed in the main thread….
I’ll take that for the first (5+8=3 carry the 1+1+1) 33 games
Sorry Magnus, but I am a polly on this: this team is a coiled spring ready to go. they want to play games that count.
Momentum is real to most things; also pride, team, talent and adrenalin. I think too much of a ‘proving we’re the champs’ could make them tight and a 33 game 500 series doesn’t matter much except in September, but this team 1.should start above 500.
2.Every team on the road is a team we should beat.
3.The Cards and the Braves are all home games.
Are we having a wins pool this season? I nailed it last year and this year I am adding 4 games. 96 wins and a place in the World Series.
win total contests were a little more interesting when the team sucked (2007-2008). Predictions were all over the map back then. But who among us is going to come in with an *82* or whatever the year after we win the WS? I’ll post my prediction, with reason behind it, on Opening Day…….
you said that last year – that it was to early for predictions *grin*
and good night to all Hawaiian speaking announcers.
Ed, of all the slang you Brits use, I really fancy “punters” for gamblers. “The punters are really favoring the young filly from Doncaster.” I hear it all the time when I watch the races from the UK.
You have another Mark Teixeira you’d like to trade away on your fantasy team? Actually I’m looking for a catcher. If you have an extra Buster Posey sitting on your bench, please let me know.
Cheers.
Another impressive inning for Runzler. He’s really cut down on the walks this spring. Has a terrific K/W ratio of like 15/2. Ridiculous WHIP of about 0.73. I was under the impression that the brass wanted a true long-man for the final spot like Soup or Vogelsong. But you can’t leave Dan off the roster. His stuff is too good. I have high expectations for our young lefty this year.
Hey, we just lost to the Royals. I was beginning to worry again after we won two yesterday.
I feel better again. Now, would someone kindly head to the shortstop store and pick us up one?
Preferably one who doesn’t have an AARP card.
Can Tejada match these stats: Juan Uribe, from June through september, never had a month where he hit better than .240. July through September, never had an OBP higher than .276. His OPS dropped 75 points from 2009 to 2010. I love the guy, but Tejada should not be much of a drop off, in the field or at the plate. Fontenot can give him a rest, tho he is capable of playing 150 games.
Uribe looks dreadful in that blue cap, btw. And the Bums after hosting SF go on the road for 8 straight vs. SD, Rox and SF, so they have a road trip of their own, without Garland, to worry about.
We got a .749 OPS, 24 HRs and RBI 85 from Uribe last year. We’re not getting that from our SS position this year. Now, Uribe most likely won’t come close to duplicating that this yr for the Bums and I hope he takes a dump. But we’re taking a dump ourselves at SS. Offensively AND defensively. Miggy’s career UZR at SS is like -30. And Fontenot is a 2B, he’s not a SS. We need a goddamn shortstop.
So, my question is, what do you expect out of Tejada? Uribe slid last year and isn’t imo a starting full time SS. If his avg. etc slide further this year, he would obviously be a lot less valuable. I have no idea, but what did SF get out of its SS position last year offensively? I don’t think it’s as big an issue as the other guys in the LU
A full seaon of Posey, resurgent Panda, addition of ross and deRosa and lack of health issues for Burrell, Torres and Huff make up for any shortcomings at SS. And I don’t think D is going to be any worse than RentUribe was at that position last year.
Thanks, Soph.
Tejada will have a better year than Uribe.
What do I expect outta Tejada? In a word — nada. Nada from Tejada.
749 OPS is not out of the question for Tejada, even though I wouldn’t bet on it. The large number of RBI were partly attributable to a lot of good luck. There were runners on base practically every time Uribe batted.
VCU beating Kansas and Butler getting into the Final 4, too, proves the idiocy of the biased, in-season rankings, which lead to the tourney seedings. The Big East flat got chewed and spit out in this tourney. Sure, basketball with only 5 on the court at a time has the better opportunity for parity among so called elite leagues and mid-majors when they actually do go head to head on a neutral court, but this spotlights the insanity of the BCS in football. The BCS is nothing but a monopoly money grab by about 10 so called top programs. If there were a 16 team March Madness type tourney in NCAA football, the “upsets” would occur with regularity, ala Boise vs. Oklahoma a coupla years ago. This is just what guys like Tressel and the other BCS coaches and university presidents fear, since their programs would take PR and recruiting hits. But, the TV ratings would be through the roof. It will happen, someday…
1-AA ball has done it for years. What do the big time teams do for the month layoff from last reg game to January? It’s stupid. But…there is so much f-ing money they make in all these stupid bowls, they won’t give it up.
An 11 seed making the final 4 is hardly a regular event.
In the BCS, teams the equivalent of VCU or Butler have no shot to even sniff the BCS bowls, unless they run the season’s table, and even then, they have no shot at the national title game…
Well, the schedule is a rather significant obstacle.
Now there is no #1 or #2 seed in the Final Four — first time since the 64 team tourney began in 1985. Parity is here, particularly with pro-type kids leaving constantly after one year…
A gentle reminder on the Belt discussion : it was not whether he’d make the team, it was whether he’d make the team if he abused the “Tim Dillards” of the world. He clearly has not had the kind of Spring that would force them to keep him. A trade in the next few days could change everything…
Must be tough to spot the ballplayers at Boise State, eh?
Uh, I meant “student-athletes”…
2 people outta 5.9M correctly picked the Final 4 on the ESPN bracket contest. That’s some predicting right there.
Here’s a prediction for ya: Rowand will start ALL 3 gms in LA and go 0 fer 10 w/ 5 Ks and 2 GIDP.
Snarkk, I hope you loaded up with the single malt. It’s gonna be a real test of the nerves the first series.
Agreed Dennis. I went conservative like Obama and was something like .15 % behind him (he was just under 100% through the first two rounds, with two losses I believe) . . . Then the Sweet Sixteen and Elite 8 happened. OH OH!
Interestingly enough, with my bracket getting slaughtered, I’m still at 83% . . . That happens when the 5.9 million entrants goes with the favorites too.
Dennis, long season ahead. They can get swept in LA, and I’m not sweatin it. Now that there’s that one WS champeenship in the bag, I’m downshifting to 3rd gear bask for a while. And, not going to waste the good stuff on worrying about the Gamer. He’s a short timer, he gone by the trade deadline at the latest, IMO…
Rowand might get the start against Kershaw, it’s nonsense that he’d start all three. Dennis, you’re doomering before the seasonb even starts- these are the World Champs, give it a few days before you have the sky falling.
The worthless boob actually has very good numbers vs Barbara (.973 OPS HR, 4W, 4RBI in 20 ABs) and Lilly (.926 OPS HR, 2W, 2 2B and 3RBI in 24 ABs). Bochy will start ’em all 3 in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle with the Gamer. The fact that Rowand will start even ONE game is an insult.
Baggs responded to my questions I had a while back about salary items.
1. If the Giants DFA’d the Gamer, would they be liable for an acceleration of all his salary? No. They’d pay under the regular contract pay schedule over the remaining life of the contract.
2. How do players get paid? Players typically get paid on the 1st and 15th in the season. Their service time during the season is irrelevant to the bi-weekly pay amounts. “Players on split contracts would get paid different amounts based on service time if they are optioned to Triple-A, etc”. And, as we know with Bonds, contracts can include deferment provisions. He noted that he thought, for example, that the Dbacks are still paying Jay Bell and Bernard Gilkey. Ouch. The Jay Bell thing intrigued me. I looked him up. Per USA Today salary data, Bell earned $55.5 million in his MLB career 1989-2003. Jay Bell? — .265 career BA with 195 HRs, 2X All Star, One WS win with Ariz. $55+ million????!!! Sheezus….
Thanks to Baggs…
great post, thanks.
yawn. Scott Ostler responds to email too, but his sense of humor is not nearly as apparent there as in his published work.
How about some jug wine? Carlo Rossi Burgundy to swill down these posts? Snarkk’s avatar is the best. Arf!
Bitching about what ballplayers make is decidedly low class. Owners are reaping record profits and the balplayers are the product. If anything, they are underpaid…
Snarkk’s email was about HOW they get paid. I didn’t know the particulars about the schedule. They don’t get paid in the off season I found that interesting.
Exactly. I have one response to the above criticisms of either Baggarly for him responding to my legit questions about pay mechanics, or me forwarding the info here for all to see. Bite me…
“Snarkk’s email was about HOW they get paid. ” Until he took his shot at Jay Bell. Poor choice, BTW. 55 million for 18 years was peanuts even then. Eat shit, Snarkkles.