A Brief Time Away From B-A-S-K-I-N-G: Breeders Cup Day
I know they break it up into 2 days now. I think that’s dumb. This sport needs *less* not *more* if it’s going to start to repair itself. The 2 year old’s aren’t allowed to use Lasix this year and while I understand the uproar from the racing community, this is a sport that has to get a handle on it’s drug use. Starting with Lasix is a good, well, *start*. I’m for many changes in horse racing, most that will never happen. For instance, I think the whip should be banned, too. Anyway, I can almost *hear* you clicking your mouse to another destination on the web so I’ll get off my soap box and just get straight to the good stuff: My BC longshot picks of the day. (BCLSPOTD!)
I think the best of today’s card is later in the day. I will still offer at least 1 longshot pick for each race. Keep in mind, I play the trifecta and superfecta a lot and hitting a bomb or two “underneath” is a fabulous way to ensure your spot in the IRS line after the race.
Juvenile Turf: I don’t like this race but will lean towards the Euro’s on top. They have the experience of running without Lasix. I like George Vancouver and Fantastic Moon. I also think Lines of Battle could surprise. Of the American’s, I like Noble Tune and while I don’t think he’s going to win I see Balance the Books motoring in the stretch to complete some part of the superfecta.
Filly and Mare Sprint: Groupie Doll will be tough to beat. I like Rumor hitting a section of the super at a big price. I could also see Great Hot hitting 3rd or 4th.
Breeders Cup Dirt Mile: A race I’m not that interested in. I like the 2 outside horses a little to hit, hoping one of them hits the tri.
The Turf Sprint: There’s nothing quite like watching horses race down the hill in a SA turf sprint. I think this will be an insane race. My longshots in that race are Reneesgotzip and Tale of a Champion. I think Mizdirection could run real well and I think Unbridled’s Note wins that bad boy.
The Juvenile. I like Power Broker a lot. And while I don’t know if He’s Had Enough can win, he win run MUCH BETTER than his 20-1 morning line suggests.
The Turf: Little Mike won me a lot of $$$ back on Derby Day of this year at 12-1 in the turf classic. Not today though, I like Trailblazer.
The Sprint: Always a tough race, it’s been a boon for me over the years. Soviet Problem and Mr Greeley were two of my best picks of all time. Today I like Gantry and Coil and my longshot is Boxeur des Rues to blow up the bottom parts of the super. I also think Hamazing Destiny will hit the super somewhere.
The Breeders Cup Mile: Who could ever forget the great back-2-back Lure performances? I like Mr COmmons a lot as a longshot. Wouldn’t be surprised in the least with an Obviously or Moonlight Cloud victory.
The Classic: Don’t just hand this one over to Game on Dude. I love Fort Larned and Nonios. And if Alpha manages to hit 3rd or 4th, I will clean up.
That’s it. Feel free to share some of your best bets of the day or any other horse racing thought, if you have one. If you’re still in full B-A-S-K mode I totally understand. Here are two pics Pawlie sent me that you should all enjoy. The second one is of me, Dirt and Pawlie standing in front of Willie. The first one needs no caption……..
A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball 
Twin, thx for your comment end of last thread, I appreciate that. I’ve changed my mind on quite a lot of things baseball related due to what I’ve read here from bloggers with links to other sites, from yourself, Flav, Blade, Snarrkk, James and a lot of others.
This time last year and off season I wanted Sabes to make a big splash and sign reyes or beltran, neither of whom were at all needed. I also thought middle IF was terrible and would drag the team down; with addition of Scuts and how well Crawford settled down plus Arias and the riot it’s now a tremendous strength. I also had serious doubts about pagan and blanco, guys bochy stuck with who came through dramatically.
Pence I’m still ambivolous about. He just didn’t hit well here even tho he had a ton of rbis. This was a comment I saw from Philly bloggers, that for all his opps in middle order his numbers could have been a lot better, and his D is kind of spotty. But how you would replace him, i dunno.
Last month or so, from clinch time through gut wrenching NL playoffs to the end, complete with parade pics, has been most enjoyable, every day, to follow along here. Whether everyone agrees or not on different topics, it’s always a good read and something I look forward to every day.
Well said, Willie…I agree on “almost” every point. 😉
Good luck on the BC Flavor. I always bet a long shot or two. Saw Mucho Macho Man is running and thought of DJLoo. What happened to that game on dude?
Where the fuck is Waldo (DJLoo)? OK, back to bask mode . . . 🙂
Remiss not to mention the great pic of Dirt (Micah), Pawlie (Paul), and Flav (Craig), appropriately taken near the Willie Mays statue.*
*Part of my Holy Trinity – Willie McCovey and Juan Marichal being the other 2 archangels . . .
And the game shot is from “the sandoval game” WSG1. Our man in the stands.
Awesome pictures…thanks for sharing Pawlie and Flav. I could give a flying fuck about the ponys…never piqued my interest in the least. Basking…now that is something that I just do not see myself tiring of…I am going to soak this damned season in for a looooooooooooooong time.
Willie – in regards to your post, I agree (and have said basically the same thing), that I have learned much from many of you on this blog, and sharing the day talking smack and baseball with the Flappers is something I look forward to every day.
BTW…I have not seen an exact report day for SFG pitchers and catchers, but it will be in the neighborhood of February 14th, and with that said…ONLY 104 days until pitchers and catchers report…
On that note, here is a quote I came across the other day…love it, and have to share:
“People ask me what I do in the winter when there is no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.”
-Rogers Hornsby
Have a great weekend gents (and Ferret).
Baseball notes: Travis Ishikawa has been outrighted to Nashville. He had a pretty good year as a back up first baseman for them….
Matt Williams to be interviewed by Rockies..
Bourn received a qualifying offer so we’d have to give up a draft pick for him. I’d say that rules him out here…
MLBTR lists Pagan as 11th best FA, and thinks he’ll stay here- for Rowand money- 5 and 60…
Dierkes also thinks we keep Scooter for a little above his value and also retain Affeldt ( 6-7 million per year)
Anyone else feeling slightly depressed since the season ended? The other day, a guy I work with said “congrats on your Giants” long pause…”they got hot at the right time.”
Well I lost it …”fuck you, you sawed off little bastard. THE better team won” I shot back…Now Mark is a good friend of mine. Typical Texas good ‘ol boy, but a decent guy overall…However at that very moment, he really touched a nerve. Everyone in my office knows what a huge SF fan I am, but my reaction took everyone by surprise…It really was out of character for me…I think deep down, it has been killing me to not be closer to the action…I was at game 4 in 2010 in Arlington, but in 2012 to be so far away from the action, has really left me in a sort of post-
Mortemish depression…How many days till pitchers and catchers report?
A Texas guy said that? Maybe he was talking about the NY Giants..
104 days Chi? Too fucking long!
“they got hot at the right time.”
Yeah, I think it was about July 15..
If they keep it intact and everyone stays healthy, the WS starting line up should easily score well over 700 runs. I think the starting pitching is the most suspect part of the team, but there’s no way anyone would or should tamper with it.
104 eh? I could use a little break to recharge the batteries. But I’m already checking the fall leagues, trade rumors etc…love all the GM talk.
Pagan 5 yr 60m? I don’t know. Gary Brown could be ready soon and is an outstanding CF. I guess they could move Pagan to LF in a year.
What about Tori Hunter for 1 yr instead?
Salty, I thought before this season, that Brown was going to be just about ready for the 2013 season too . . . I did a 180 on that. He needs way more seasoning. That being said, he will get an invite to Spring Training probably, but I don’t see him as anything more than a mid season or September call up.
Pagan is the best free agent outfielder available not named Josh Hamilton (who I don’t want). Bourn is one dimensional and I see “Figgins” written all over him . . . In short, he is past 30 and his game is speed, which undoubtedly will disappear before the ink is dry on his contract. I’m not impressed with Upton either. Too expensive and he strikes out waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too frickin’ much (169 last year).
Me? I want Pagan back if the powers that be find him half way reasonable. He has youth, decent defense, speed, was a stud when we needed him, and maintains the continuity of this WS Championship team. Not broken, so don’t fix it (with someone else).
One other thing about Upton . . . This fuck has 8 years in the bigs and he hasn’t fulfilled his promise, e.g., lifetime batting average of .255 (.246 last year) and stolen bases down each of the last 3 years. No thank you.
Blade, I think we agree on Brown…hence my comment they could move Pagan next year.
I would be very reluctant to go 5 yrs for Pagan. He’s also a speed guy who will be 31.
But I hate fat long term deals for FA’s coming off big years. I’d rather find a guy who might have struggled and is out to prove something and give them a 1 yr with incentives. In short, applying the theory of stock picking—buying low and selling high.
First a faux pas on my part – for whatever reason, I thought Pagan was younger than that (I had him pegged at 28 or 29 . . . my bad). Thank you for pointing that out. If Pagan hadn’t played with us last year, yet had the same statistics as he did for us, I would be hesitant about going 5 years with him. However, he disproved all that scurrilous trash talk about him being a club house cancer on the Mets (which I never bought into from the beginning) and he showed me passion in his play this year. I like “continuity” and again, if Sabean thinks he is worth 5 years, then I am on board with Sabes.
I day trade (and am fairly successful at it . . . knock on wood), so I like your analogy about stocks, which I agree with. 🙂
This week’s Sports Illustrated finally arrived today, been greatly looking forward to seeing the Giants’ glorious sweep on the cover. Instead, it’s Penn State. Are you fucking kidding me?
What general area of the country do you live in? I read a thing that said the Giants cover was only for the Western region, which seems kind of a rip. Since when does the World Series winner not get nation-wide exposure on the S.I. cover?
Having said that, I know that things aren’t what they used to be in the magazine business. Magazines are HURTING for sales, and are doing all they can do to try to drum up more sales.
Zum, I’m in New Jersey. Yeah, I know SI has been doing different covers for awhile now, usually for preview issues. But the World Series? Jeeez.
Hmmm…I got mine on Tuesday or Wednesday, and it has the Giants on the cover.
Haven’t checked the mail in a few days, but typically SI covers are the same nationally…If I see Penn State on my cover, you can expect to read my letter to the editor in next weeks rag.
It doesn’t fucking matter what region, Penn Stupid Ass State should NOT be on the cover of SI after the Giants win the WS. If it was the Yankees or Nats who had done what the Giants did, they’d be on every SI in EVERY region in the U.S. This east coast bias nonsense is so ridiculous and pathetic.
BJ Upton has a pretty strange record. His avg. is less the issue than an apparent inability to combine plate discipline with power in a way that would make him a real star. Based on what he’s done over the last few years, he probably wouldn’t be a drop off from Pagan. His SB total may have gone down, but his success ratio was pretty good last year, which is a lot more important than the raw total.
sorry, can’t go five years for Jesus Christ much less anyone else. I think Sabes has learned his lesson there. 3 years tops with maybe an option for a fourth. if AP wants to go somewhere else, buh bye. This whole, I’ve got to take care of my family and 45 mil isn’t going to cut it just pisses me off. If i had 3 mill in the bank i’d be done. I’m not saying get cheated but a reasonable wage and a chance to get to the playoffs every year before a packed and passionate house? Enjoy your money in the hell that’s miami or tampa or minnesota or wherever.
As for the spankmees, they’re whole deal was made when the league banished george for two years and Bob Watson ran the show. That’s when ALL the critical homegrown pieces were put in place. Bob lasted one year after George got back because he couldn’t hack George screwing with the farm system to get some lame ass left hander who could maybe put it into the short porch in right. Bob Watson was the MAN. He trained Cashman who was better able to tell George no than Bob which is why they stayed respectable as long as they did. But with the idiot sons, who knows how long it will take before someone like Bob comes along again.
Brief time out from baseball – I’ve got Trombone Shorty cranked up and loving it!
Those in SF that are FB friends with The Bottom of Hill in SF, on the first question to win tickets for their 21st birthday – of the four bands mentioned, Nirvana never played the club.
Cheers Flappers!
And on a political aside….Nate Silver has a lot riding on Tuesday. He’ll either be crowned in glory, or fade into oblivion. His 538 blog now has Obama at a 83% chance of winning. Nate’s blog articles are more low-key though. It’s an odd disconnect. Nate will say something like “The numbers suggest a slight advantage for Obama in the Electoral College.”
Come on, Nate. At 83%, that makes it sound like it’s suggesting more than a SLIGHT advantage..
Oh well, that’s just Nate’s style.
And speaking of Nate, his new book is at #6 on the NY Times non-fiction bestseller list this week. I’ll buy his book if Obama wins. If Obama loses, I’ll be all “Nate Who?”
I saw him on one of the MSNBC shows last night, and as he said, at that time Obama led in 19 of the 20 swing state polls. He notes on his website that the only way Romney can win the electoral college is if the polls are biased against him. As ridiculous as that argument is, he adds:
“Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.”
I saw him on Rachel Maddow too. Zum, Silver isn’t into hyperbole. He is a statistician that ONLY deals in quantitative probabilities. Consequently, you will never hear him unequivocally say that something is a “sure thing.” If he does, he will say it in “statistician speak.”
For example, this is what he said right before the quote Twin provided – “Although the fact that Mr. Obama held the lead in so many polls is partly coincidental — there weren’t any polls of North Carolina on Friday, for instance, which is Mr. Romney’s strongest battleground state — they nevertheless represent powerful evidence against the idea that the race is a “tossup.” A tossup race isn’t likely to produce 19 leads for one candidate and one for the other — any more than a fair coin is likely to come up heads 19 times and tails just once in 20 tosses. (The probability of a fair coin doing so is about 1 chance in 50,000.)”
In my opinion, I doubt anyone will be saying, “Nate who?” after the election.
BTW, for those not familiar with him, Nate developed PECOTA , a sytem for forecasting baseball player performance. He also wrote for Baseball Prospectus. I knew he turned his attention more to political forecasting in 2007.What I didn’t know until searching a bit more today that he correctly called 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election and all 35 Senate races.
If Mitt “Under the Banner of Plutocracy” Romney does win, I wonder if Nate will acknowledge that it was the Romney/Ryan team chemistry that put them over . . . .
I’d have to think it would be the first debate where Obama clearly only gave 105 percent…
Silver has a lot riding on being right. He’s pretty much in line with betting odds. I think he’s accurate and Christie’s all but endorsement of Obama in the wake of Sandy is pretty much sealing Romney’s fate. That said, people HAVE to vote regardless of who they support. I’m a bit of a political junkie. Not sure if I have told you guys my first job out of college was as a legislative aid for the vice-mayor of the city of long beach, ca. We went though a campaign in the time I worked for him. In a council district of over 250k people, 42k turned out to vote and we carried the election with 28k of the share. It was pretty much a beat down of the competition but just think how such a small percentage of the electorate decided representation. Voter participation is so pathetic in this country. Point being get out and vote. Take part in civic life.
Good post . . . I read an article about Hawaii having the most apathetic voters. It was a good read via the CNN website and cited good reasons why the people don’t vote, e.g., sunshine, their tans, surfing, swimming . . . umm, you get the idea. Seriously though, the crux of the article was that if you live in paradise, there’s not much to complain about.
Side note – I have always voted, but was a bit apathetic myself about volunteering for anyone’s political campaign. That changed when Obama ran and I was inspired to assist – doing phone bank work and canvassing neighborhoods. The phone bank work was fascinating. More than a few times I came across a right wing nut that told me, “I wouldn’t vote for that n*gg** if he was the last person on earth,” or, “He was born in Kenya,” or, “He’s a Muslim.” You never discuss their points, much less argue with someone like that – Usually, I would say, “God bless you and enjoy your day.” 🙂
I was not political at all prior to that job but have voted ever since. In his campaign for reelection I walked door to door, did phone banking, mass mailers, all that stuff. I found the whole process fascinating. Most people will vote for you if they get a face to face interaction.
I was in Reno in 08 and got a lot of visits to my house from Obama workers. Prior to leaving I had people this year too. I think Obama is ahead of the curve with voter data and social networking. His campaign’s superior GOTV effort will be the difference.
12 milion is a pretty nice bump for Angel. 5 years at 12 is what Dierkes thinks Pagan will want. I can see Sabean offering a choice of the security of years OR 12 million- in other words, somehing like 3 years at 12, or 5 at 9. As to the clubhouse cancer stuff, he did prove that it was peculiar to his situation with the Mets in 2011. As I posted last night, I’ve come 180 on Angel, the money he is said to want is pretty steep, though. I’m on the fence now.
Little Mike at 17-1. Hope Flav changed his mind.
Since Zumie brought up the election and Bozo music, I thought I’d share this nice quote from a Bottle Rockets tune “Middle Man” that for me somehow summarizes the plight of the most preposterously hated on President in our history:
“If I could be a little bit younger, If I could be a little bit older
If I could be a little bit friendlier, If I could be a little bit colder,
Then I could be a little bit better”
Bottle Rockets shout out on a Giants blog…No wonder I love this place so much!
Interesting – Because San Francisco (California) won the World Series and Obama is almost 99.9% expected to take California, it means that he will likely win re-election. This WS predictor has been correct .850 per MSNBC (only incorrect twice since the World Series was initiated.
What is going on in CO blade? Im surprised to see it so close.
Million dollar question Micah. Denver is democrat, with the surrounding suburbs transitioning to Democrat. Boulder is “San Francisco East” or what the locals call “The Republic of Boulder.” Conversely, you have Colorado Springs which is solid military (Air Force Academy), with bible thumping right wingnut bible thumpers. Ditto with Fort Collins. I guess you could say that the State is purple . . . The good news is that our Governor and two Senators are democrat . . . Bad news is that Rove and his buddies are dumping tremendous amounts of money to obfuscate and right out lie about issues. Consequently, your uninformed voter is easily influenced IMO.
It’s difficult not to be very concerned about what the outcome might be in Florida and Ohio where huge lines are already discouraging voters and officials aren’t even secretive about their desire to suppress the vote for likely Obama voters. Ohio has State Senator Nina Turner going for it though, and early voting hours eventually weren’t cut. She’ll drive every voter to the polling place herself…You rock,Nina…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hRcbyo-2mI4&feature=related
I’m just going to post this for myself so that somewhere on the internet my BC picks are appreciated by someone other than myself and The Boney One (and my wallet).
Juvenile Turf–nailed George Vancouver at 9-1 on top–he kicked off a winning pick 3.
Breeders Cup Dirt Mile: “I like the two outside horses a little bit”— Tapizar went off at 15-1 and won. Hit the pick 3 there (third leg off the George V race).
Turf Sprint: “I think Mizdirection could run real well”…he was 20-1 morning line, ended up going off at almost 7-1. “and I think Unbridled’s Note wins that bad boy”– he finished 2nd. “My longshots in that race are Reneesgotzip and tale of a champion”. That was the easiest $360 trifecta I’ve ever hit in my life and I’m an idiot to miss the super by fiddling around with 4th place. I already had 8 horses in 4th–didn’t have the 3. Should have and could have easily hit the all button for 4th. Whatever.
The Juvenile—“and while I don’t know if He’s Had Enough can win he will run much better than his morning line (20-1) suggests.” He came in 2nd and lost by a head to the even money favorite. Hit the super there for .30 cents and had it for the same amount if that fucker could have gotten his head up for first (at 18-1)
The Turf– Little Mike crushed me and I shook my head with a smile (probably because I was up on the day). Trailblazer got a shitty ride from Take who needs to go back to Japan and just stay there……
The Sprint and the Mile sucked and I lost money on those races.
And then The Classic…..”Don’t just hand this one over to Game on Dude. I love Fort Larned and Nonios.” I should have hit the pick 4 if it weren’t for stupid ass Trinniberg (had the Lumber Guy won I would have) and I didn’t hit the pick 3 because of the same stupid ass Trinniberg who I had on zero tickets.
But I hit the tri and the super (.40c) in the classic rather easily.
All in all, a very good day……….
A grade school friend of mine (lives in Elk Grove, near Sac. now) is a big fan of horse racing . . . He was at the satellite horsehide gambling hall (or whatever the fuck you call them 🙂 ) this afternoon. He was betting on the Breeders Cup and other races . . . Anywho, I am going to cut and paste your post and see how he did for comparison. I’ll get back to you.
Night all. Night, Craig. Cup day must not be the same for you without Loo and yeah, Denny. Sounds like you had a good one anyway.
Twin, I went to bed at 9:30 complete recovery almost, I am still tired after sleeping 10 hours, from many 5am bedtimes during the playoffs.
I don’t know if it is for the picture, the BC post or the whole damn blog, but Amazon has placed a price!
that’s rad.