Valuing a Major League Team

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on March 22, 2012

I’ve been waiting for the latest Forbes issue to come out. With the Dodger’s rumored to have a dozen legitimate buyers all willing to go north of 1.5 BILLION dollars to purchase them, I was curious to see what Forbes would say they were worth. Last year they said the Dodgers were worth a pedestrian 800 million—And yet there’s a bunch of cats out there that are saying with their offers that the team is worth much more than that.

Here’s Forbes latest *attempt* at valuing mlb clubs. This is just the top 11:

well, whattya know, LA just increased their value by 75% in a single year! Wow! Hey, Forbes says that’s what they’re worth so that has to be what they’re worth, right?

Obviously, Forbes has no idea what any of these teams are actually *worth*. If the Giants were put on the market today, I bet they couldn’t predict within 100 million dollars of the final purchase price. In fact, I bet they aren’t within 100 million of the Dodgers final purchase price, and that’s with their lame attempt to reassess their value on this year’s list (I say “lame attempt” because they’re obviously just going off of the current publicized rumors of what the Dodgers will ultimately sell for).

If every single team was suddenly put up for sale I would bet that a Flapper Prediction Contest could come as close or closer than Forbes would to the final sale price for each team……

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Bozo said, on March 22, 2012 at 6:47 am

I would expect the Mets to have a negative Operating Income, but the Phillies and Angels are a surprise to me. The thing with the Dodgers and very soon the Giants is they own their stadiums. Hell, the land that the Pac Bell sits on is probably worth the 600 mil Forbes says the team is worth.
Texas at number seven? Well, they just got a new TV deal (Dodgers too, I think), I guess that’s the number that adds to a team wealth that I wouldn’t have a clue about.
- willieD said, on March 22, 2012 at 7:29 am
  
  bozo, the TV deal thing is what my godson says has been holding back the Pads from spending the money on players. I don’t understand it either, and know zero about SD situation.
  - Bozo said, on March 22, 2012 at 8:08 am
    
    Willie, yeah the TV and merch revenue would be hard for me to make any guesses on dollar amounts. The Yanks I totally understand why they are number one. Great TV and merch revenue, plus they not only sell out their own place but pretty much do it on the road as well (so their split from those gate sales would also be large). But, Texas? It’s gotta be the TV revenue.
Alleykat said, on March 22, 2012 at 7:57 am

Another Homer for the “Pill Box” yesterday.This dude better make the roster.
twinfan1 said, on March 22, 2012 at 9:21 am

Actually, A lot of sports economists had believed that the Forbes figures weren’t all that accurate- then some internal MLB documents were leaked in 2010, revealing the financial details for several teams- and and the income numbers matched the Forbes figures almost exactly..
Sales price has never been just the team value- like everything else, there are studies-“Vine (2004) examined the relationship between Forbes’ estimates and team sales prices to determine whether or not professional sports franchises sold at a discount or at a
premium. The study found that franchises have sold at an average 27% premium relative to their Forbes estimated value…
There’s a PDF document on line (Winning Off The Field: The Determinants of MLB
Franchise Value) , bottom line, the Forbes numbers appear to accurately reflect team values.
- twinfan1 said, on March 22, 2012 at 9:57 am
  
  The spike in value for the Dodgers is said to be the new TV deal beginning after 2013- which will pay the team 55 million more per year than the current one.. the value also is for the team, Dodger Stadium and the lease to the parking lots.
  - Nipper said, on March 22, 2012 at 10:22 am
    
    Television sure can help.
unca_chuck said, on March 22, 2012 at 9:52 am

So, the A’s are worth $2.75?
- Nipper said, on March 22, 2012 at 10:20 am
  
  It shows what lousy ownership can do to a once proud franchise.
TedSpe said, on March 22, 2012 at 9:54 am

1.5 BIIIIIIIIIIILLION dollars
Nipper said, on March 22, 2012 at 10:18 am

Giants real worth……priceless!
mrmrbill said, on March 22, 2012 at 10:39 am

If Cohen gets his bid, La Russa’s name alone is a value-add for the team.
TedSpe said, on March 22, 2012 at 10:50 am

Tomorrow’s game with Texas is on regular television. KNTV
- Del Mar Dennis said, on March 22, 2012 at 10:54 am
  
  As opposed to irregular television? Maybe they should try some fiber in their programming.
  - TedSpe said, on March 22, 2012 at 10:59 am
    
    Couldn’t hurt
blade3colorado said, on March 22, 2012 at 12:06 pm

Music to my ears . . . Per the SF Gate,

“Blanco has been a blur. He nearly had an inside-the-park home run in his first game of camp, an intrasquad game. He has scored from second on a wild pitch, gone from first to third on a grounder to the right side and turned a routine single to right into a double.

Bochy declared that Blanco is faster than Andres Torres. In 14 Cactus League games, Blanco has played center field as well as Torres did. As a plus, Blanco has gone 16-for-36 (.444) with a .512 on-base percentage.

“He’s done all he can do to make this club,” Bochy said Sunday. “He’s played great. We can’t say anything definite on what’s going to happen. I will say he’s played as good as anyone this spring.””
- Bozo said, on March 22, 2012 at 12:30 pm
  
  Yeah, I think I’ve heard of this guy, he sounds kinda OK. But, if he’s Blade’s guy then I’m rooting for him. GO Gregor!
  - blade3colorado said, on March 22, 2012 at 12:47 pm
    
    Nah, I had no idea about this guy . . . you, snarkk, et. al., woke me up to this guy.
twinfan1 said, on March 22, 2012 at 1:31 pm

Kendrys Morales back at last, really rooting for the guy..
So what’s the consensus on who escapes the Grim Reaper when Fruckie opens on the DL? My take is that Burriss not only stays but gets the starts. I think they’ll give him every chance to be the second baseman. Wouldn’t count on Fruckie playing again..if Manny doesn’t cut it, they have the Cajun boys..
- snarkk said, on March 22, 2012 at 1:38 pm
  
  My understanding is that the Runt has a one year ML contract for $1M, so he stays. Theriot does not, he’s expendable. Burriss is out of options, so I’d say he stays on the 25 for a few weeks to see if ST was real or just a pipedream. If he hits real MLB for April, maybe he stays up for a while and at least generates some trade value as a viable utility guy….
  - Bozo said, on March 22, 2012 at 2:03 pm
    
    I’m pretty sure that Font’s contract, like Theriot’s, is not guaranteed.
Alleykat said, on March 22, 2012 at 1:50 pm

Quotable:”That’s what you want to see.These guys ar doing what they need to do to be on the club.I’ve always said competition is good for a club”.
Managet Bruce Bochy, happy to see Whitey and Stewatless engaging in a sprited fight for the backup catching job,said he would be hard-pressed to pickone now.

Unreal,How about neither Boch.2more knocks for Sanchez yesterday,but still no love.
twinfan1 said, on March 22, 2012 at 2:15 pm

Most people seem to agree that we’ll see Hector soon.

“Hector Sanchez isn’t part of that mix, but he’s really coming on strong and is up to .480 after two hits. Sanchez also displayed some maturity in the field during a ninth inning in which Santiago Casilla struggled with his command.
Sanchez had some nice blocks on balls in the dirt and called time to go help Casilla regroup after a stretch of poor pitches. Casilla immediately got the final two outs of the game.
“He’s playing very well,” Bochy said of Sanchez. “I don’t know what else he can do with the bat. He had some big blocks, he did a nice job.”
Alleykat said, on March 22, 2012 at 3:43 pm

Whatever Twin.We won’t see Hector till ElPresidente is assissanted by Stewart.Even then Boch will just try and get Pudge or Varitex off the scrapheap first.
zumie said, on March 22, 2012 at 4:05 pm

Forbes’ top 11 valued teams have won 13 of the last 16 World Series. That’s not particularly good for Major League baseball’s longterm well-being; but meanwhile Selig can try to put a band-aid on things by adding extra Wild Card teams.
- TedSpe said, on March 22, 2012 at 4:17 pm
  
  Forbes’ top 11 valued teams have won 13 of the last 16 World Series and yet Moneyball was a best seller *and* a hit movie
  - Nipper said, on March 22, 2012 at 4:25 pm
    
    They’re underdogs. People love underdogs.
zumie said, on March 22, 2012 at 4:53 pm

And “Titanic” is one of the biggest hit movies of all time, and, well, oh nevermind…..(grin)
zumie said, on March 22, 2012 at 5:19 pm

Joe Namath doesn’t like the Jets getting Tebow. He called it a publicity stunt. The deal doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense for the Jets.
jlbush62 said, on March 22, 2012 at 5:40 pm

Here on the east coast, Tebow getting traded to the Jets has overshadowed the news that Ryan Garko signed with the Long Island Ducks of the Atlantic League.
St said, on March 22, 2012 at 6:21 pm

Saw Todd ‘Moose’ Linden was even making another go of it this spring.
willieD said, on March 22, 2012 at 6:53 pm

So, on the days crawford’s bat needs a rest, who plays SS, esp if burriss takes over 2b (or SS and somebody else plays 2b)? If Pill makes the team, does he ever get a shot at 2b, or is that something that was a failed minor league experiment?
PawlieKokonuts said, on March 22, 2012 at 7:19 pm

Imagine if this team really is speedy and uses speed efficiently? Just the element of surprise will fake opponents out of their proverbial jocks. “The Giants? Running? Taking the extra base? Naw.” It would be fun to watch. Even more fun if we win.
DJLoo said, on March 22, 2012 at 7:37 pm

If things don’t break right we could have the worst team in the majors “up the middle.”
paulinasia said, on March 22, 2012 at 7:48 pm

Got an email from a friend stateside who shared Sports Illustrated’s seasonal predictions. I usually think whatever SI picks, the opposite will happen, but it looked like they were picking the Giants and Angels in the Series, Angels on top. Looks like SF is getting some preseason attention, anyway. I am very hopeful, despite SI’s pick… 🙂 And Loo, agree… any lineup this season that has the two ‘Ots in the lineup at the same time for any extended period of time will not be good news. I’m thinking that’s not going to happen. Sanchez opens on the DL, Burriss at 2nd, hope for the best out of Crawford, who will have a short leash. Font and Theriot… ugh. If there’s going to be any early season pick-up by Sabean, might have to be the middle infield. And yes, we will be seeing Hector soon. Hopefully very soon.
Bozo said, on March 22, 2012 at 7:49 pm

You know Pawlie, you’re right. All we’ve been talking about for awhile are the bed things (injuries, Zito, bench, Zito, 2nd string catcher and …). This is going to be a damn good team, yes we have some flaws, but these bastards are going to be exciting as hell. Fuck the bench, that’s management’s call. Fuck the fifth starter, Paris Hilton has been there done that. Fuck Vern and Vera’s son, let the red headed step child keep the gear warm for now. The New Year is right around the corner, let’s go out and have some fun, get fucked up and score some runs. Maybe I need to work on the anthem a bit more, but you know what I mean. Play Ball.
- paulinasia said, on March 22, 2012 at 8:12 pm
  
  “Have some fun, get fucked up, score some runs.” Bozo, why didn’t the Giants’ PR team consult you for this year’s slogan? 🙂 Also, I’m honored to be confused with our dear Dr. Pawlie (both of us east coast “Pawl’s”, erudite beyond belief, the mistake is understandable)…
- paulinasia said, on March 22, 2012 at 8:27 pm
  
  Oh sorry, Bozo! Just realized you were in fact responding to Pawlie’s post….. uh… morning in Saigon… where’s my coffee….
mrmrbill said, on March 22, 2012 at 8:06 pm

What’s the over/under for Zito phantom injury DL appearances this yr?
- paulinasia said, on March 22, 2012 at 8:15 pm
  
  No no no, not this year, Barry is looking good!! This year, for sure…… uh huh… Crouching Zito, Hidden Victories….
St said, on March 22, 2012 at 8:25 pm

Zero expectations. How can he disappoint?
zumie said, on March 22, 2012 at 8:35 pm

Mr. Bill you may be onto a poll idea. Although I would recommend it gets tweaked a bit and just turned into how many starts do we think Zito will have this year. Maybe it’s already been a poll. I can’t remember. Something like:
A. 0-5
B. 6-10
C. 11-15
D. 16-20
E. 21-32
I’m leaning towards B. I think he goes about a 2-6 record, 5.80 ERA, and hello phantom injury.
- blade3colorado said, on March 22, 2012 at 9:05 pm
  
  Unfortunately Zumie, Barry Zito* is Mr. Reliable insofar as games started (last year being the exception). Consequently, you have to treat him like a zombie, i.e., only a “head shot” injury will keep him out of the rotation. 🙂
  
  * I am on record as liking Barry Zito as a number 5 starter . . . His numbers are quite good in comparison to other number 5s around MLB. My problem with him was when they trotted him out as a 1, 2, or 3 starter. Yeah, the contract is outrageous and blah, blah, blah. I am over the animus that others seem to relish.
  - twinfan1 said, on March 22, 2012 at 9:39 pm
    
    No one relishes hatred for the Zitster.Well, at least I don’t , I just acknowledge that he’s evil and will conspire to let us down when it hurts the most. In 2010 he miscalculated and thought his start against the Padres on the final weekend would be enough to doom our postseason hopes. When Dirrrty saved us, Bochy made the greatest move of his tenure here- he would give Zitman no more chances to sabotage the season- he left him off the postseason roster in favor a raw snot rocketeering rookie…
snarkk said, on March 22, 2012 at 9:21 pm

Fontenont has a 1.05M MLB contract. If they cut him, they’re on the tool for it…
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/12/12/SP7A1MBL8U.DTL
- snarkk said, on March 22, 2012 at 9:22 pm
  
  On the “hook” for it. Two glasses of Chard are catching up with me…
- twinfan1 said, on March 22, 2012 at 9:42 pm
  
  The contract would have zero bearing, IMO.
- paulinasia said, on March 22, 2012 at 10:07 pm
  
  Not sure, but the Chron stories keep saying it’s not guaranteed up to a certain date that is fast approaching. They’d be on the hook for a small amount if they let him go, like, next week…. according to Hank, anyway…