The MAIN Reason Why The Giants Should Re-Sign Matt Cain
I just read Kawakami’s article at the Merc and I was surprised that he left out the biggest reason the Giants have to sign Matt Cain. I agreed with his 5, but the most important reason to sign Cain now is so that they don’t get bent over by Lincecum when it’s his *turn*.
I’m on record as saying I hope the Giants don’t sign both Cain and Lincecum. Together, it would probably cost in the ballpark of 250 million to ink them. That’s just too much. Especially for pitchers who are much greater injury risks than position players….
But they really do need to sign at least one of them. And if Cain walks there will be absurd pressure on ownership and Sabean to *do something*. We all know how they react when they feel like they have to do *something*. Panic-mode sets in and they do something stupid. (see: Rowand, Aaron and Zito, Barry). If Cain walks, the Lincecum would likely get the 8 years he’s looking for and we would regret that deal forever……
With Cain OR Lincecum anchoring the staff, the Giants should be able to keep the pitching near the top of the league for the next half decade or so. Remember, Bumgarner isn’t a free agent till 2017 and he is going to be RIGHT THERE with Cain and Timmy in terms of production over the course of the next 5 years. That’s the other reason, by the way, that you can’t pay BOTH Timmy and Matt to stay here. Once Bum rolls into his arbitration years he could be making 20 million a year just like Timmy is now. There’s no way the Giants can pay three starting pitchers 65-70 million dollars a year. That is not happening……..
We’ve gotten spoiled here in San Francisco with rock solid pitching. We’re used to having 4 studs to trot out there every week. But that isn’t reality. We’ve had a window of unreal luck with our pitching but the window is closing. And the answer isn’t to pay 250 million to keep it open. If Sabean continues to misfire on his pitching draft picks (and all signs point to lots of misfires over the last few drafts) then he’s going to have to pick up some *Room B* free agent pitchers. It’s not all bad, lots of the Room B guys will want to come here. Pitchers love it at AT&T. And they get better, too. Our staff will be fine as long as we sign Cain and Bum does what we expect him to do. Let the Yankees or the Red Sox pay Timmy his 8 year deal and watch how that turns out……..
A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball 
Develop replacements. The Giants should go after youth and keep their options open. Long term commitments to any one pitcher is a bad idea. Keep stocking the farm system at all costs.
I’m with you Nip . . . There are a lot of MLB mid-level pitchers that are ready to break out, coupled with what I have said about the phone park being Nirvana for a major league pitcher, i.e., Flav said the same thing above.
I can see a 4 (my preference) to 5 year deal for Cain at 18-20 million per year, but 6 years as GH said is ridiculous. If the suits do a stupid deal like that, you can fast forward a few years from now – Flav will have Flap topics like, “This Is Cain’s Worse Spring Training.” Book it.
🙂
My bad . . . Flav is retiring next year . . . sigh.
😦
Given Cain is a free agent first, he is the more important one to sign. I still think if they go 6 years with an offer to Cain, I think that he will agree to something less than what he would get on the open market.
I think if he signs for 6, lincecum would at least consider a 6 year deal after these last two arb years. Probably would take more than what Cain would take, but Seattle would certainly throw as much money at Timmy as the Red Sox, Yanks and Dodgers would.
But priority is Cain because I guartantee you that if he is a free agent, Dodgers will offer him $150 mill and imagine hime and Kershaw pitching against us for the next 8 years. You have to pay Cain whatever it takes to make sure that Dodger scenario never happens.
Also, paying Cain, Tim and Bumgarner a possible combined $75 mill in roughly 2016-2017 and the end of his arb years may not be as daunting as you think. Payroll then would easily be $150 mill plus.
The one person not likely getting a big multi-year deal will be Brian Wilson. Pablo and Posey will be the only other two by 2016-2017 that could be in the plus $10 mill range. The Belts, Paniks, Browns, Hector Sanchez’ should all be under reasonable contracts during that period. So I for one can actually see a scenario of being able to pay Cain-Bum-Timmy $75 mill and then having another $25 mill for Posey-Panda combo. That would still leave another $50 mill plus for a group of guys just approaching arb years…I think it could all work.
I wonder how much Matt’s move to AZ comes in to play. I’d imagine testing the waters to see if the Snakes are interested in him (I’m sure they would be) might be a huge deal in the Cain household right now. The Giants may have to over pay just to keep him and if they dicker around too much it might just piss him off enough that he’d shut down negotiations. I say give Matt what he wants and throw in a wad of round trip vouchers on Southwest for the Mrs.
And remember, Baer said the mortgage to the ball park will be paid off in 2017. So back load the contract if needed.
Cain is the top priority for sure.Get off your ass Sabean and Baer and get him locked in before the season starts are he will walk.
Still make my point about pitching trumps all in winning .Braves had it for years with their Big 3 (Smoltz,Maddux,Glavine) and won 14 straight titles.Yeah and so what if they only won 1 W/S title..It always looks great to win your division every year,as it would for all of us to see the Giants do just that.And that won’t happen if you break up this Stud staff.
And I don’t want to hear about the money,this freakin team makes all kinds of revenue.
Off the top of your head, give me an example of a “mid-level FA” and what he would cost. Remember, Randy wolf got $10 mil from the Brewers. A guy like this is a big drop off in quality and is still going to be expensive, tho certainly not as much as an ace. But you are going to get what you pay for, imo.
I still think what Twin was talking about yesterday, extreme lack of pitching depth in minors, plays into the Cain deal. surkamp might work out, but he can’t be third best starter, unless you have one hell of an offense..
Anibal Sanchez, Bud Norris, Hiroki Kuroda.
Even the guy we had, Dirty – could break out this year.
Blade, I think WillieD is asking about *Room B* free agent pitchers—- you could count Kuroda but not the other guys since they’re still under team control.
A guy like *Chris Capuano* fits the bill of what I’m talking about— .500 type guy who would get better pitching at AT&T. He’s making 3 or 4 million this year.
It’s a good argument. Kuroda would still cost a lot of money, but would thrive here, i’m sure. But to me to have to go find guys like that every couple years and pay them $10 mil per, to be less than an ace, isn’t going to be easy. The park favors pitching sure, but if you don’t score a lot there is also more pressure to go 7 and hold the other team to two or fewer. Capuano types, I dunno how many games those guys win–they aren’t playing for the Yankees, so they have to be able to hold other teams down to fewer runs consistently. And are these guys you can win playoff games with, as opposed to your aces?
They’re not misfiring on drafting pitchers, they’re simply not drafting as many. It’s quite obvious that Sabean is going away from the habit of concentrating on pitchers in the draft. And keep in mind that he traded for Fruckie, Garko, and Beltran by giving up promising young pitchers. They got lucky with Fruckie, getting a good year out of him helping win the WS ( and giving up Alderson, who still hasn’t made it out of AA ball)- they got hosed with Garko and Beltran.
They are in a real position to trade for a pitcher or two by next year- they’re loaded with Catchers/1st Basemen:
Posey, Hector, Susac, Belt, Joseph, even Pill, Dominguez, possibly Villalona ( gee, kid got sent to San Jose before he even got out of the DR)..
It’s a total misperception that this is just a hitter’s ballpark- the 2002 team hit 152 HRs.. BFD, you say? Oh, I forgot: it was 152 PLUS 46 from Bonds.
Anyway, the team isn’t going to fall back out of perrenial contention, they’re just changing. Change is good. In the coming years, they’ll score more, give up more. As I’ve said many times-watch the AA team- if our kids hit there, they’re ready for the jump to the bigs.If they don’t- hey, turn ’em into pitchers…win-win..
I agree that we should and likely will trade some of our young hitting prospects (probably Joseph) for at least one good SP pitcher….
by the way, Kuiper said that if Glass can’t recover enough to throw he should move to first base or DH (two needs that the Giants obviously don’t have).
I don’t know why he can’t stay off the DL and be used as the first PH each game. Too simple of a plan?
Nate is hitting .139 this spring. This is all good. Back to the bench with Belt in LU. Twin, you are just about to make good on your *period* post from a few weeks ago. I hope it comes to pass……
I think it’s .217, but whatever it is, think it might be time to trade him.. he can start for some teams.
it’s actually .138, not .139
Giants’ website says .217 through yesterday.
http://tinyurl.com/bofahch
You’re looking at his last ten games.
http://tinyurl.com/d8lek6o
yes, i see that now.
.138 in last ten… not a good way to about securing your job. Besides Huff or Belt, Blanco enters the picture. Would we ever have had a faster OF? Throw in Burriss if he hits at all and we could have our version of the pests who set it up for Morneau, Mauer and company. I forget what they called those little fuckers.
As soon as I stop laughing at the image of the Fruckster playing first base….well, I can’t…stop laughing.
Im laughing right along with you Twin.Like you said if Fruckie can’t play 2B he’s useless.
“Kuiper said that if Glass can’t recover enough to throw he should move to first base or DH ”
Further proof that you don’t have to be smart to be a fine baseball announcer..
“They’re not misfiring on drafting pitchers, they’re simply not drafting as many.”
Excellent point Mike. It isn’t a figment of someone’s imagination that MLB tier one hitters do not want to play here. I think Sabean recognized this a few years ago and they changed their in-house philosophy, where hitters are a preference in the annual draft. There are always going to be exceptions to the rule, where they draft the best available player ala’ football, but I think this is a good change that the Giants have made philosophically.
Mike also mentioned something yesterday – in a different context – about a recent trade we made, where someone thought it was a mistake. I forgot the verbiage he used and the players he was talking about. However, I will give you my example of Beltran and Wheeler . . . The Mets haven’t “won” that trade . . . yet. It’s possible that Wheeler never develops into anything except a number 4 or 5 pitcher. Big deal. We were in the race last year, so Sabean did what any GM does when their team is in a division race, he traded for the piece he thought would get us over the top. After an initial bad start, Beltran performed. My point is that occasionally you have to use your prospects (like poker chips) to improve your team. Although we didn’t “win” that trade, we haven’t necessarily lost that trade either. Call it a push for the time being.
I suppose Wee Willie Keeler would be backing up Freddy at 1st . . .
In what? A pine box?
They’re looking hard at Eckstein..
Had to look up little Willie. He was quite the player. He coined the term “hit ’em where they ain’t” he was responsible for the bunt on a 2-strike count to be called a K because he was such a good bunter, and he was the one that popularized the Baltimore chop to get on base. His manager came up with the hit-and-run because of his speed. He also had a 44 game hitting streak (45 if you count the previous season). The one Rose tied, and DiMaggio broke. . .
Line-Up for Yesterday
K is for Keeler,
As fresh as green paint,
The fastest and mostest
To hit where they ain’t.
— Ogden Nash, Sport magazine (January 1949)
Trying my first high end build in quite awhile- I’ve actually begun to feel pretty good. It’s weird, though- any of you who have family or friends (or yourself) with cancer, especially brain- you often can’t tell when you have something wrong besides the cancer. Turns out I’ve had a bladder infection for quite awhile- even before the surgery. Don’t know how it was missed. But on my end, I didn’t know I had it-until the antibiotics started to work. Enough info for ya? Will get next MRI in a couple weeks. Starting to feel optimistic again, which probably means I’ll get mauled by a Pit Bull this afternoon..
I hope the pit bull survives 🙂
Great news, Mike. Even if a little TMI-ish . . .
Oh, I forgot 😀 😀 😀 😛
TMI? I’ll tell you what TMI is- the commercial where the women talk turkey about toilet paper and the horror that is “break through”…
Stranded on a toliet bowl,what do you do when your stranded and you run out of roll?
BUTT SLIDE…..
And with just one square of tissue–poke your finger through the middle and …. all right Scott, that’s quite enough ..
Glass is getting a cortisone shot. I hope this is his first one and moreover, I hope it works.
I’ve had 3 cortisone shots, twice in the shoulder and one in the left wrist. Physicians will tell you two things about cortisone: 1. If you have a follow-up, ensure that it is at least one year apart (preferably longer) from the last one you had because it may weaken the tendons; and, 2. Cortisone does two things – relieves inflammation and has some healing properties.
When I had the first cortisone shot in my shoulder, it was miraculous, i.e., I was able to continue my weight lifting routine, walk on my hands again (yes, I could do that at one time), hand stand pushups, etc. When I had my 2nd shot in the shoulder and first one in the wrist about 15-18 months later, it did absolutely nothing for me. Then I fell off the mountain in British Columbia and had rotator cuff (2 torn tendons) and bicep rupture surgery. Today, I have most of my strength back, but certain things I avoid, e.g., walking on my hands (grin), military press – which is the worst exercise you can do insofar as your shoulder is concerned, and throwing anything or exercises requiring quick reactions, sometimes called Plyometrics.
My personal feeling regarding Sanchez is that he is DONE. I really do hope he is the exception. However, anyone who works out regularly, competes in competitive sports, and has had surgery/cortisone shots, understands what I’m talking about.
anyone who works out regularly, competes in competitive sports, and has had surgery/cortisone shots, understands what I’m talking about.
——————————————————————————-
Well, that takes *me* out of the equation
Some nic pics on the Drumbeat today of Japan and the A’s getting out and about. Also a lot of devastation too.
oops…..nice
I know most of you aren’t happy with Burriss, but I think he’ll surprise…if Crawford makes me look like an idiot and actually hits, Manny could be a bridge to Panik at second.
Reminder: Giants/Halos now on ESPN2. Play Ball!
I got the game on, cool
“Pitchers love it at AT&T. And they get better, too.”
–Peter Magowan, after signing Zito.
For every rule . . .
Pagan now 0 fer his last 22 this spring. Is Marvin Benard still available?
Wow. Whining a little early this year, Dennis. Maybe he’s saving his hit for opening day.
hits
You had it right the first time. Pagan’s saving his lone hit for Opening Day.
Cortisone doesn’t ‘cure’ shit. It merely delays the inevitable. When I was having shoulder problems, the 1st one worked great. For 3 months. The next one (4 months later) worked for 3 weeks. they 3rd one ( a month later) lasted all of 4 days. After a year of rehab and shots, I finally got an MRI and the OK for surgery. The ortho surgeon said I did about 50% more damage doing rehab, shots and physical therapy for that year.
I didn’t say “cure shit” Chuck, so don’t put words in my mouth.
healing properties . . . whatever. I was pissed that I had to go through a year of shots, rehab and therapy, and all I was doing was tearing up my shoulder more.
Isn’t that what I said? Same thing happened to me. I shouldn’t have had the follow up shots and with regard to the first one, I should have followed my physicians advice to adjust my workout routine, which I didn’t do. In short, the first one worked so well, I thought I could continue as I was. Wrong. Everything breaks down eventually . . . called gravity and oxidation (old age).
By the by, it DOES have some healing powers . . . see this Feb. 2011 article – http://www.the-rheumatologist.org/details/article/1010859/The_Evolution_of_Glucocorticoids.html
“Accepting the plaque from the Hench Society, Dr. Chrousos said he was honored to be giving a lecture in Dr. Hench’s name. “I would call Philip Showalter Hench a benefactor to the world,” he remarked, referring to Hench’s discovery, with Drs. Edward C. Kendall and Tadeus Reichstein, of cortisone and its healing powers, for which they were awarded the 1950 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine.”
BREAKING: My book is out:
http://www.amazon.com/Baseballs-Starry-Night-Reliving-League/dp/0615622305/
Paperback available. E-book version and other options forthcoming. I’m on a Tampa radio station tomorrow, and another one on Friday; story in today’s Tampa paper.
I guess I can say I knew you when you were just a flapper, huh?
🙂
still a 2B-trade-rejecting Flapper of the first order; got a 3B?
Doris Kearns Goodwin? Can’t get much better endorsement then that, i.e., Pulitzer Prize-winning American biographer and historian, and an oft-seen political commentator. She is the author of biographies of several U.S. Presidents, including Lyndon Johnson and the American Dream; The Fitzgeralds and the Kennedys: An American Saga; No Ordinary Time: Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt (which won the Pulitzer Prize for History in 1995); and her most recent book, Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln.
Way to go Pawlie.
I wonder if she comes to the Flap site as a lurker???? Hmm . . .
She was very gracious, and her blurb came in as we were going to press.
That’s awesome, Paulie! Congrats. So, uh, how does one get the e-version autographed?
I’ve thought about that. An e-mail? Skywriting?
I found an article from yesterday on the Tampa Bay Times The Heater by Marc Topkin. cool. Could not find the article for today
He interviewed me yesterday and then posted at his blog; I suspect the print version today is the same thing.
you ought to reach out to KNBR. they have authors on all the time pitching their books.
will look into that
Brian murphy on the morning show did a book about 2010 so he’s usually pretty receptive to other authors, especially of baseball books. i think his producer is Paul Conner (?). he goes by the nickname p-con
Cool Pawlie. 🙂
Nice cover — didn’t know van Gogh was a baseball fan…
Anybody think the Giants take a flyer on Zach Duke?
Sign him to AAA contract and have him for insurance since their thin right now in starter depth.Once Zito craters,he could give him steady innings
Steady innings? He appeared in four games this spring, giving up 25 hits including five home runs in 14 1/3 innings.
Shoot, sign him up. Zito gave up 9 rockets in 2 1/3 the other day…
The Giants on TV here on the East coast, what a great concept this is. Maybe they should try this during the regular season.
Great Pawlie
danke, moviemeister
You know, I expect a little better from you, Pawlie. Listen, I know how to conduct an exhaustive search, and there’s no book of any kind by anybody with the last name “KoKonuts”…
hahaha
anonymity blown…uh-oh
I mention The Flap in the book and make no secret at all of my Giants’ fan allegiance. Also, Blade3, a.k.a. Steve, is part of my own story of that night. I was not watching any of the games until Blade gave me a newsflash score of 7-7.
Major kudos, Pawlie. That is awesome. I like the Van Gogh cover . . .
his son designed the cover.
OK, Van Gogh INSPIRED cover.
Starry Night? Get it?
yes, i know. I just didn’t know if you knew his son designed it. I didn’t think you thought it was actually a cover designed by Van Gogh, lol
Ahhh, no I didn’t know the little Kokonut designed it.
Well, baseball and Van Gogh overlapped for a few years, so you never know.
Van Gogh’s son designed the cover? Cool.
Way to go Pawlie.
I was gonna pick up one of Neal Sephenson’s books, but this got bumped to the top of my list . . .
very happy to hear about the book, PK. I will buy the e-version as soon as it comes out.
Ishi is competing for a job to back up Gamel in Milwaukee. However, Mat has never lived up to big expectations, and Travis just might get a chance to be the regular. Ishikawa is a favorite, as you know. Here are a few highlights from his time here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KX1Y-KD-QE
Someone tell Dennis Pagan doubled. Nevermind, he just got picked off 2nd . . .
Yikes. They are carting a woman from the game after getting hit by a broken bat rocketing into the stands.
I blame the maple syrup producers’ cartel. If the league switched to ash bats, potential syrup supply would increase, forcing a price-dropping glut on the market. Maple syrup is the bane of our sport.
And we all know the Illuminati is behind the maple syrup producers. Or is it the Freemasons? The Clampers?
This country needs to stop its reliance on foreign maple syrup!!!!
Dammit!!!
Now I thought Sarah said it was the Queen of the England..
fecking Canucks . . . wait! lots of maples in NY State….tho’ Willie Mays used a northern white ash made in nearby Dolgeville, NY
She was a bloody mess (but conscious and talking) according to Kurkjian . . .
Hope she’s OK.Guess she can hang with Theriot and compare wounds.
Cardinals signed Yadier Molina to 5 years, 75 million.
Brew-Crew signed J-Lucroy to 5 years, 11 million……..
Guess which team got the better deal???????
Lucroy needs to get a better agent…….
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/content/game-162-revisited-book-baseballs-starry-night
Congrats Pawlie…To write a book and get it published,quite a feat.Very proud of you! And what’s even better you find the time to hang with a bunch of rejects but true baseball fans at Flap Nation as well.
Lets see some of you guy actually ready this book!
Lets see some of you guys actually reading this book. Sorry inbriated as usual.
Nipper, if you give me a valid address I’ll buy you a copy of the print version and send it to you………
bigflavor77@gmail.com
you’re somewhere down in Mountain View, hell, I’ll drop it off myself-gettin’ some face to face time with The Nipper could be worth the cost of the book and then some…..
Disclaimer: The author accepts no responsibility for social faux pas [pases??] incurred by Flapper Nation facetimes. Go, Giants!
I just saw this . . .
“News: According to CBSSports.com Baseball Insider Jon Heyman, the Giants might be leaning against giving first baseman Brandon Belt a roster spot out of spring training. Brett Pill has also had a good spring, and Aubrey Huff is still the projected starter at the position. “He’s had a nice spring,” manager Bruce Bochy said of Belt. “We think a lot of Brandon. That would be one of our more difficult calls.” Belt entered Tuesday batting .380 (19 for 50) with three home runs this spring.
Analysis: Belt was one of the top prospects in baseball entering last season and actually won the first base job then, but he struggled during his time in the majors and ended up spending much of the season in the minors. Although he seems to be a little more prepared for the role this spring, he might be the victim of a numbers game. Unless the Giants are willing to play him in the outfield, Belt would likely go to the bench even if he makes the roster , , , “
Congratulations Paul.
Heyman is a useless piece of garbage who knows nothing. Guarantee he’s dead wrong…
Loo, you pansy . . . What do you really think?
I’ve heard him a lot, Blade. He never breaks a story or has a solid original idea. He either states the obvious or just throws something stupid out there that never happens. You’ll see…
I totally agree with you Loo. Heyman is an idiot…..
See what? I actually agree with you. Everything I have heard up until today is that Belt is either starting at left or first, and certainly he has a spot on the roster. Can’t imagine him being sent down.
OK, I’ve said it from the get go, with the glut of 1B guys Belt wasn’t a sure bet to make the club. I know I’m not the only one to say that but I bet I was the first to say trade his ass. If Belt is the first baseman of the future then fine, trade Posey but if first base is the only spot for Posey trade Belt now while there is a larger market value for him. If Posey won’t be able to catch in a few years (he did look good today) and the Giants know it, trade Belt. The Richmond guy I talked to was very high on Belt, and he knows more about players than me, but I’m getting to the point where I think Keeping Ishi would have been a better idea. Do I care if I’m proved wrong? No, I want to be, but I’m not sure Belt is more than a minor role player for us (going forward).
Yeah, way to go PK. You really churned that thing out in no time. It better be good…
Baggs also reports he’s hearing Belt could be sent down. They are concerned he’s not ready to hit ML pitching.
that’s ridiculous, he’s got nothing to prove in the minors. It would make zero sense to start Nate when he’s our best pinch hitter/late inning defense guy and send ONE of our best hitters to the minors. NO SENSE>………….
When is he gonna be ready, when he’s 90? And major league pitching is completely diluted and generally sucks anyway.
Magic Johnson’s group just bought the Dodgers. I fucking love Magic. This is going to force me to hate the Dodgers slightly less….slightly…….
It seeems to be all over the web that he may open in Fresno. If he does, I think I’ll move to Nepal.
Do they have a baseball team there?
What size U-Haul should he rent if he plans to bring the wife?
Loo, spend some time in Oklahoma City . . . She’s a frickin’ raving beauty in that town. Oh, and would be considered skin and bones also.
Belt getting sent down would make a lotta sense.
Crap, Belt’s only hitting .380. What’s Huff hitting this spring? 11 million…
He has a hole in his swing. He strikes out looking. Drives a manager crazy.