When Do We Pull The Trigger on Trading For an Established Starting Pitcher?
I reads a headline at Yahoo (not the article, just the headline) that suggested the Dodgers should trade for Jake Peavy (assuming the White Sox continue their slide out of contention). If I’m Brian Sabean, I’m doing everything I can to beat the Dodgers to it. Peavy’s a bit of an injury risk, he’s making 14.5 next season and he’s got a player option for 15mil in 2015 if he meets certain criteria. But that’s a very reasonable salary for a top flight starter (and Peavy has definitely re-established himself as one of the better starting pitchers in the game).
But stats are facts, and there is growing evidence that our starting pitching isn’t going to be able to duplicate the collective success they’ve had in recent years. He could fit anywhere into our starting 5, replacing any number of SF Giant starters who are either ineffective or injured.
Plus, I really don’t want to see the Dodgers build their pitching staff up this Summer. I don’t think it would take a lot to get Peavy since his future salary, while manageable, will scare off most of the lower market teams. But you only need 2 buyers to bid against each other. So honestly, I’m not sure what Peavy would cost.
Thoughts?
A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball 
“Plus, I really don’t want to see the Dodgers build their pitching staff up this Summer.”
The Dodgers are on a 2 game winning streak. BREAK UP THE DODGERS! 🙂
Seriously, I think Voggie is done. Not even God can resurrect him from the dead. Ryan is a control pitcher and if he loses that ability he is just about worthless. I read a recent article where his fastball is at 89.6 mph (a frickin’ significant drop from his 90.8 last year and 91.4 in 2011). His hit rate isn’t seeing eye singles either, as batters have a 25% percent line drive rate against him (with a swinging strike rate that has fallen to 6.4 percent). Oh yeah, did I mention he turns 36 in July? As I said earlier, put a fork in him, because he’s done.
Want more? ERA is 8.06 for the year, his WHIP 1.84. His secondary numbers are just as bad, with his BABIP at .369 and his HR/FB rate at an unbelievably high 21.6 percent. That said, you would probably get a bag of balls for him in a trade. In short, he is radioactive right now. I predict he will be sent to either long relief after his next start or the minors. Book it.
Me? I would like to try to swing a deal for Matt Garza (who I just claimed off the FL waiver wire in the Flap league). The Cubs want to trade him and he is coming off the DL after pitching 6 scoreless innings in the minor leagues (yesterday I think). I have no idea who we would give up for him. However, if he starts pitching good, the Cubs will up the ante. A deal has to be struck quickly for this former 1st round pitcher.
Come on man rally nachos! Derp….or is it enchiladas? Dang, I always get that one wrong.
I think generally the staff is fatigued from going so deep into the playoffs last year and Vogelsong’s WBC participation on top of it is what has thrown him off.
By the by, per the Denver media, fans AND the Nepal Rockies – They all consider this Giants series a very (if not the most) important match up for the year thus far. The victory last night over them was huge psychologically. Fans are already saying that the season is lost if they don’t win this series against the Giants. Read this to get an idea of how key this series is to them:
http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_23253624/giant-steps-needed-by-rockies-home-series-against
I hope the Gmen sweep them.
I like the idea for Peavy. They could make the move tomorrow as far as I am concerned but I wouldn’t want to see them give up too much for him. The Giants are going to need those arms at the lower levels. Especially when you consider Zito, Lincecum and Vogelsong are all gone in the next 2 years. If not sooner.
That’s the conundrum of all trades . . . Everyone wants something for nothing. I’m not saying do this, but often times, teams will make that choice to give up blue chip prospects for winning now. I guess what I am saying is that Sabean has earned my trust to do what ever the fuck he sees fit to acquire starting pitching. I’ve been in his camp forever and he has the best seat in the house, as well as competent support staff to make the right decision. That being said, I also relate to what you said Dirt (I want something and I hope it doesn’t cost us a lot). 🙂
True, you always want fair value for both sides. I think taking on salary and a lower level arm would be fair. I would trust Sabean and Evans to determine which arm it will be. If I was Chicago I would be weary of that type of deal though. Outside of Wheeler the Giants do a pretty good job of hyping arms and once they trade them they are not really what the other team expected.
I have been watching with interest and joy Peavy’s return. He is a pitcher at the right price today. And my apologies to Bozo as I should have hinted about garza, you FL waiver wire wolf.
now I am hungry for enchiladas.
go gigantes
nice game last night, great result for sure.
Ed, that’s one advantage of living or being across the pond – everyone is asleep, while we were perusing the eligible waiver wire players. 🙂
SPs are always going to generate a lot of demand, and I would think Angels and Yanks are part of any bidding war along with Dodgers. This (rotation struggles of SPs) isn’t going to be easy for Giants to negotiate, esp if in house options aren’t viable.
I wonder if they would go the other route and pick up just a stop gap give me 5 innings type of guy. ATT is still pitcher friendly and Giants everyday LU is pretty solid offensively and (generally) defensively too, plus you have a deep pen that’s expertly managed. This is someone who gets you through the season and eats up innings, not an ace for the playoffs big bucks guy.
But I could sure see the reasoning of getting a big name guy like a Peavy, with the thought he is a front line starter who takes you through the playoffs…with big bucks SP(s) coming off the books next year.
Damm I wish we still at Zach Wheeler!!
He would be ready to step in by June-July.Take over for Vogs as he moves to the bullpen.
Saves rolled the dice for Beltran and came up snake eyes…
Keep in mind with Peavy that the White Sox are nowhere near being out of contention so it’s premature to even think abiout him, IMO. There is way too much obsession with the Dodgers anyway.The teams to be concerned about are whoever we’re playing , and the DBacks.
As to the rotation, I’m not giving up on any of them, even Vogie. I looked at the BP breakdown and while he has shown a velocity loss (the 4-seam is 90.5, 91.3 in 2012) that’s not unusal for his age. “What does stand out is a slightly higher vertical release point that coincides neatly with a decline in horizontal movement on his pitches. As a result of that diminished movement, his ground-ball rates are in decline, and his swing-and-miss rates are trending downward, too.”
Bottom line, he is elevating pitches at a higher frequency this season. I think that with his mental toughness, a few sessions with Rags, and the arrival of that discretely packaged shipment, we’ll see the Vogie we’ve come to scowl along with…
Vogs seems like he aged at least 5 years in that photo. 😉
I’m scowling along… Actually, I had just stepped on a nail…
Peavy has alot of innings on that arm to me.Suspect to break-down at 31.
I am all over as Twin knows, Jeremy Hellickson, cheap contract,ROY,GG,only 26.Could easily move into this rotation.Yeah he struggles sometime,but with the right coaching(Rags&Gardy) which he is not getting in Tampa Bay he could be special.
TB has been pretty good at developing pitchers. Not sure why anyone thinks he isn’t getting good coaching. Are the fans in other cities saying that about our coaches re Lincecum , Cain, et al?
Not sure about commiting 30 mil to Peavy with his injury hx.
With the strong possibilty that Machi will be back today, a position player will have to go down. Who?
Gotta be Pill unless he can’t go down yet ,what is it 10 days up before headin out.
Maybe Noonan but I doubt it.
I think that’s only for bringing a guy up who had been sent down, Could be wrong, but I think they can send a player down before he knows he’s up…
The chances that among the starters only MadBum is going to have a better than average season seem pretty good; the likelihood that 4 of the starters will have below avg. seasons are not as remote as they should be. Thank goodness the front office has recognized the wisdom of building a team around a good offense. 🙂
Peavy’s salary is a bargain, he boosts attendance, and he’s pitching well. The White Sox are only four games back and could use another starter themselves. They are NOT going to trade him, certainly not for anything the Giants have in their system. If I’m their GM, I want Sandoval in return.
Serenity now… Serenity now… Serenity now… Serenity now… Serenity now… Serenity now… Serenity now… Serenity now… Serenity now…………………………………………………………………………………………….
Madbum and the bullpen (sounds like a cowboy poem) will account for about half the innings pitched this year. Whether they get rid of Vogey or not, there is no way that spot in the rotation performs that poorly from here on out. Cain is also simply not going to sport a 5 ERA, although since his own drop in FB velocity, I was surprised at how good he was last year. Timmy’s numbers seem just about right, and Zito will join him by the end of the year.
Another above average starter would be prudent, but probably not necessary.
The Snotter’s line from the Brave game:
•W, 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 8 SNR (snotrockets): 3 vs. lefties, 2 vs. righties, 3 other: 1 at-bat and 1 double blow SNR…the double is believed to be a first.
Another entertaining comeback last night and more compelling testimony against the prevailing ‘wisdom’, that a starting pitcher’s win totals are mostly a matter of circumstance. Despite giving up six runs and posting an ugly WHIP, Cain absolutely deserved that win. Not only did he shut them down after the third inning, he laid down a bunt and got a two out RBI. If the Rockies had won 1-0, he would have deserved the loss as well, by failing to get a runner on third home with less than two outs. I sure hope they never use the DH in the National League.
.
It’s not wisdom, it’s fact and common sense. Cain has had W-L records that didn’t match the quality of his pitching in previous years.
These days, wins are harder to come by, but losses are about the same. The percentage of games lost per starts is really the only stat that matters to a team. Cain deserved those losses. I remember several games where he blew a lead late, giving up two out, two strike hits.
WHIPs and even ERAs don’ tell the story in real life detail. The pitchers with high winning percentages get outs in crucial moments.
This nonsense is so astonishingly antediluvian (little TMBG reference for you there!), I don’t have the energy to argue.
I’m afraid the argument you’re making is pointless. Barry Zito had a lot more strikeouts and a slightly better WHIP, the same ERA in 2010 vs 2012. You’re arguing that he was better in 2010 and the W-L records were circumstantial.
I wonder if there will ever come a day when they’ll award playoff spots based on a team’s stats rather than their W-L records.
Yogi, you are not in James’ league here.
You have actually posited than a pitcher who gets the win despite giving up 6 runs, is better than one who gives up 1 run in a 1-0 loss. You’re off the rails again, John. You need some red meat. Ask one of the grannies in condo association.
Michael, neither you nor James is making a point worth making, perhaps due to lack of energy. Cain deserves credit for last night’s win and a share of the blame for all of his losses. How much, that’s debatable. Do you think he feels differently?
W-L totals are totally unreliable in evaluating pitcher performance, Cain was only in there to get the win because Bochy didn’t want to burn his pen out with 3 games to go in Colorado.
Ditto. I can name a half-dozen pitchers right now that have underwhelming win totals, yet their WHIP and ERA are lights out or good, e.g., Shields, Dempster, Cahill, Strasburg, Medlen, and Lohse.
Wins may not be the most reliable way to predict future outcomes, but they’re really the only thing that matters in the present. Another reason why Bochy let Cain bat for himself is because he’s a an Ok hitter.
I’ve been thinking a lot about Warren Spahn lately, I love that guy. I saw his name last night while looking up pitchers who allowed the most HRs. (Cain is on pace to break Blyleven’s record). Spahn is the winningest left hander in history despite starting his career relatively late. He played for some good teams, but not always. I don’t know what his WHIP is, maybe it’s better than the greats of that era, maybe not. I do know that he was a good hitter and fielder, and wasn’t lucky to get all of those W’s.
It was outstanding – 1.19 WHIP
I’ll make it simple, John. Cliff Lee was 6-9 last year. Tim Hudson was 16-7. Lee was the better pitcher…
He definitely wasn’t the more valuable pitcher. Tim Hudson is a great example. He’s a much better fielder and hitter than Lee and he gets ground balls when he needs them. His team plays better defense behind him because he works faster. He has a very high winning percentage over his career, and might possibly make the Hall of Fame. Lee is a better candidate for a fantasy league team, but is less likely to win an important game.
John, that’s total rubbish, even by your standards.Since you are unable to grasp the numbers that show your arguments to be poppycock- I’ll; use your statement that Lee is less likely to win an important game. I think even you will have agree that it doesn’t get more important than the postseason. Hudson has started 9 games in the postseason,. he won *ONE* game. ONE. Now WE have beaten Lee twice in the postseason, but his record overall in the postseason is 7-3 in 11 starts. (he’s also been better than Hudson by ERA, WHIP,, etc, in the playoffs.
Now look, I know Hudson deserved better than just one win in the postseason, and I could argue that. But you can’t- because your main agrument would be destroyed completely.
You walked right into the trap. Of course their W-L records in the post-season is how you measure success in playoff games. Also, I’ve said all along, WHIPs, command ratios, and ground balls etc. are more reliable in predicting future outcomes. Really what we’re debating is how much of an impact do starting pitchers have and are there pitchers who have a knack for winning. I think in the NL especially, starters have a huge impact on whether a team wins or loses, and there are pitchers who perform better with runners on base and in close games.
Wins are really all that matter at the end of the day. I’ve heard Civil War buffs try to argue that R.E. Lee (no relation) was a better general than Grant. No he wasn’t, although there are no doubt stats to support that argument.
You’re not smart enough to set a trap, John. Lee has been better than Hudson in every way in the postseason, not just wins.. The wins reflect how his team performed- not just him. If Lee picks up a playoff win despite giving 6 runs- he has still pitched poorly- the win would be despite his poor performance.
Your absurd theory asserts than a pitcher who gives up 6 and wins is better than a pitcher who gives up 1 and loses.
I think Lee started 30 games in 2012, gave up 79 runs–74 ER, for what that’s worth. Hudson, 28 games, 77 runs–72 ER.
With that as background, consider this: 7 of Lee’s losses were 1-run games; 3 of Hudson’s were. Now look at their respective SO/BB ratios and WHIP. I’m not going to copy all that here. But Lee’s numbers are excellent. Well, ok, I’ll copy one number. In 2012, Lee walked 28 batters–all year, total.
Of course, his middle name is Phifer and that’s gotta count against him somewhat.
John’s cockamamie theory punishes a good pitcher or good performance for his team’s ineptitude.
“The idea that W’s and L’s might be poor measures of pitching greatness was highlighted in dramatic fashion in 1999. Over a five-start stretch, then-Diamondbacks hurler Randy Johnson bordered on unhittable, allowing just five earned runs while averaging eight innings per start. In that stretch, he had a glimmering 1.13 ERA.
And in that time, he went 0-4, with his team losing all five of the starts. The D-backs were shut out in four of those games, and suffered a 3-2 loss (with all the runs allowed coming against a closer in the ninth inning) in the other.
Yet that year, Cy Young Award voters overlooked Johnson’s mediocre win-loss record (17-9 at the end of the year) to honor the left-hander as the league’s best pitcher. His team’s ineptitude could not detract from his individual brilliance.”
John’s theory inevitably asserts that the many good pitchers with losing records or low win totals on bad teams are automatically worse than any pitcher with a winning record on a good team
Michael, the trap you walked into is that you revealed yourself to be irrelavent to real world experience, an arificially intelligent entity.Teams only care about winning and attendance. A player’s value in the living world is how many wins he helps his team garner and if he generates interest above and beyond his team’s W-L record. Owners and GMs aren’t playing fantasy baseball and advertisers aren’t selling goods and services to chatbots.
Speaking of bullpen, David Aardsma’s available.
I would take a flyer on him. He was playing for one of the Marlins minor league teams and posted a good 2.57 ERA in 10 games.
This would be excellent insurance for any potential Romo issues going forward, since he was an excellent closer for Seattle if I recall correctly.
So is Todd Wellpuss Chuck.If I want the extra torture.
we know you want the extra torture
I don’t see picking up a reliever. Between what they have and Machi, Hembree, and Ramirez ( who is pitching better after a rough start), I think they’re in good shape there.
My team is in good shape, I like that, somewhere – anywhere
Pretty cool video on ESPN.
Alana Adams (9) throwing out the 1st pitch in the Redsox’s,Rays game.
What she didn’t know was the catcher was her dad LT Col Cole Adams just back from Afghanistan.
She tosses a 10 hopper toward the plate and the catcher takes off his mask and she just runs in joy to him hysterical. Truly a tear- jerker moment and standing ovation as well.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9286123&categoryid=2521705
“We’re awesome,” San Francisco first baseman Brandon Belt said. “We got down early (Thursday), but there was a lot of game left. We don’t give up.
The ex-Rockie Scutaro is batting .475 during his current hitting streak and .455 while hitting safely in 13 straight games versus Colorado.
Pagan has batted .371 with four RBIs in his last eight against the Rockies.
Yeah Bochy thinks your so awesome Brandon he’s benching your ass again tonight.Grab some pine meat.Time for the Pill Box!
1. Angel Pagan (S) CF
2. Marco Scutaro (R) 2B
3. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B
4. Buster Posey (R) C
5. Hunter Pence (R) RF
6. Brett Pill (R) 1B
7. Andres Torres (S) LF
8. Brandon Crawford (L) SS
9. Madison Bumgarner (R) P
I’m not into Belt not starting tonight. Yeah, De La Rosa can be a tough lefthander at times, but, for lack of a better phrase, he’s a career mediocrity, 58-54, 4.85 ERA. Plus Belt has a decent approach against lefthanders. And it sends all the wrong messages that other Flappers have stated before, that Bochy doesn’t totally believe in the guy. If Belt truly is the future at firstbase, then just stick with him. Plus, he’s hit some titanic shots lately. Plus he gives the team Gold Glove defense every day.
I’m kind of disappointed with Bochy on this one.
And as others have said- it’s not even that great a thing if Pill does well tonight in this situation. It only muddies up the situation, when it shouldn’t be muddied up.
We all have TV shows we don’t “get,” and “The Office” is one of those for me. It’s having its finale after nine (!) seasons. Nine?!
Last year we hit better in Nepal than the Sherpas did..9 games 76 runs .326 BA 13 HR .915 OPS..
Marco Scutaro, the Barry Bonds of singles hitters.
except he doesn’t draw walks, of course 🙂
Pill’s poorly hit double was the perfect outcome for a conflicted fan.
This control the Giants have over the Rockies is interesting. The Rox have obviously been facing a good SF team over the last 3 years but still, getting killed by us all the time has got is in their dome.
As Krukow has noted several times, the Rox have several good young hitters right now. As usual, their pitching is suspect.
I have a couple of buddies in Col who go to a lot of Rox games but neither are going to a game in this series cause they’re tired of the Giants executing them all the time (and the texts post game that I fire at both of them)
It’s all the more amazing if you recall the the very tough time we had with the Rockies in 2010 and also in previous years, including some wicked extra-inning games. you could almost say Torture as a concept derived from games we played vs. Colorado. I’ve always had an animus against the Rockies for two distinct reasons: in both 1993 and 2004 we needed the Rockies to beat our rival pennant contenders (the Braves in 1993). And the Rockies folded like a cheap suit. I can’t give you details, but I know they did not help us out with even one measly win.
Twin, I like your image up above of “Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up to Me.” Say, was there a movie made of the Richard Farina book? On New Year’s Eve, circa 1971, I saw Mimi Farina and Tom Jans perform in Greenwich Village. I was an embarrassing, drunken mess.
Barry Primus played Gnossos, the film and Primus were not very good. I mean really- Barry Primus? Awful.
Bumgarner, pitching very poorly compared to the Horse last night.
If he can hold them to 9 he should get a well deserved win..
Or if he can get another well timed hit and doesn’t make anymore errors. He and his teammates don’t give a shit about his WHIP.
Actually, the manager and pitching coach amd trainer do…don’t you have some tofu-bobs burning?
I blame this 9 number on you 🙂
TF is a jinx. Bastardo blew a save for Cliff Lee tonight. He totally deserved a win, but at least he didn’t get the loss. Lee is batting .267 this year, the guy who pinch hit for him in the seventh inning; .226.
You need to put it on Johnny, Flavor. He’s the one with the dingbat theory.
Man, if only the Giants didn’t feel the need to beat themselves. Cripes.
That throw from Pagan had snow on it.
This game will be intriguing from a theoretical standpoint. A. Not many teams committing 4 errors prevail and win. And yet . . . And yet . . . . B. Since to this point each team has garnered a three-run inning, how do we test Bill James’s big Bang Theory?
A guy starting to come on is Jarrett Parker, a 2nd round pick in 2010. He’s had middling success thus far but he’s another “toolsy” type, a RFer with a great arm, a good defender, speed, decent pWoer…OMG, it’s NATE!
Sandoval’s RBI has raised Bumgarner’s pitching performance..
Pablo with 3 hits thru 4….could be an epic hit night for him. 5? 6?
What is the deal with Sandoval’s mitten on the base paths?
Vungo put the ole Nathan Lane swing on that one..
Ouch + Buzzkill…
Just about ready to go cap the pick 4 going into the Preakness
Cripes. Son, this ain’t looking good.
Hmmm, Billy Wilder’s awesome “Ace in the Hole” in 4 minutes . . .
speaking of the big bang…a five-run inning for the Rox makes that equation pretty simple; sheesh, 7 ER for MadBum. What is it w/ our pitchers this year and innings of catastrophic collapse [ICC]?
It ain’t going well, and the game is like an American League game….S-L-O-W.
G’night, girls. This game has its challenges. Not over, but a hill to climb. G’night, all.
Remember now-they score, we win,…
i said that! granted there was a question mark at the end.
I said it before too. Geez, I wasn’t stealing it. It’s all yours.
It’s not too late for Bumgarner to have a quality start.
I went out to dinner with some friends to a sports bar and it was complete pandemonium after Pacheco hit his grand slam. I kept silent, but I would love to see the Giants win this game tonight, especially after that Posey HR just now. A victory would be epic or as the Rockies announcer just said after that misplayed ball in right, “Nothing comes easy for the Sherp . . . Umm, Rockies. There would be major disappointment in the Rockies clubhouse if they lose this game.”
Maybe Belt will hit the tying field goal.
haha
Good one, Salty.
HAHAHA. Yeah, all games in Colorado feel that way, huh?
Maybe Crawford can hit one out!
Not if he doesn’t swing. Come on Gregor!
Someone needs to do a Nuke LaLoosh on that damn mascot.
Add a DH to this game and that Nipper van would be rocking. Night all.
The Room “B” “drag n’ drop” feature is almost ready. Good Night.
Rockies 1 win. Giants 10 wins.
Sounds like WE’RE STILL YOUR DADDY BITCH!
Hey anyone awake?