First Half San Francisco Surprises; Good and Bad
Tony Abreu has surprised me. It’s only been 46 at bats but who had Abreu leading out team in batting average (.326) and OPS (.967)?
Buster Posey’s batting average (.312) has surprised me a little. I know he won the batting title last year but no one expected him to hit .336 again. I thought he’d check in around .290 this year.
Another small surprise for me has been the bat of Marco Scutaro. Before he went down with his finger injury he was hitting .332. He’s now down to .312 and between his bad digit and his balky hip I fear we’re going to see a regression from Scoots towards something more like his career batting average of .278 (if we’re lucky).
The Panda has been a huge, negative surprise– mostly I just can’t ever remember a time where he looked so helpless at the plate for such a long period of time. Pitchers are blowing fastballs by him with ease. I almost hope he’s dealing with an undisclosed injury or a vision problem. That would at least explain what we’re seeing now….
Barry Zito’s home/road splits don’t surprise me as much as they baffle me. 1.98 ERA at home, 9.38 ERA on the road? Opponents are hitting .422 off him on the road? It’s getting to the point where he shouldn’t even be an option away from AT&T. Of course, our options are limited….
Ryan Vogelsong pitching terribly for 8 of his 9 starts surprised me. He’s got a 7.19 ERA and that went DOWN by nearly a point in his final start.
Surprised me in a delayed sort of way: Angel Pagan’s ITPHR would be his final play of the 2013 season….
And finally, the fact that Sandoval, Crawford and Blanco are 1 for their last 73 most definitely blows my mind. That’s almost incomprehensible.
A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball 
At least we don’t have Capuano, who I watched get slapped around by Rox last night. Or League who was brought in to pick him up and gave up a couple hits and a walk in like 5th inning (former closer doing middle relief?) and got yanked on a lefty righty switch by Mattingly. LA hit a lot of balls hard last night, including last two off Betancourt (after he gave up an HR leading off the 9th).
If I heard right on mlb news last night, Marlins had second best record in league for June, so it wasn’t a fluke they played well here. And I stand by my offer–if we have to take Nolasco and pay full salary, we get Stanton and Cishek as throw ins. Stanton (who made super grab in RF last night to save another W by them) is one of the few guys not playing well, at least yet, and didn’t do anything here either.
It’s only July, but I do think this is big series–time for SF to get right and not allow LA to walk in here and dominate. Cain and Bum for the first two, should be good. I think Jenkins is right, LA in town should fire up SF.
I see a lot of blogger comments, and even Baggs and Henry talking about call ups. I just don’t see how a call up helps out much (this year anyway). Better than Torres/platoon guy, OK maybe but that’s not what I’m looking for. I’m looking for a proven hitter that is better than what competition has that can at least give you as much if not more than a denorfia, ethier, kubel. This is someone you keep next year, regardless of what befalls Pence or Pagan and would be a rock you put the kids around if SF goes that route.
Same goes for an SP–paying a guy like Nolasco for a few months or calling up Surkamp (bottom 4 or 5 at best) seems silly. Get a quality SP you know can be at or near top of rotation this year and beyond–someone you would rely on to win a playoff game alongside Bum and Cain to give you 7 strong innings.in October.
I think either or both are going to cost more than the deals that have been kicked-around. Are you willing to part with multiple top prospects to get the piece(s) you want?
Most of the prospective trades that have been discussed here has the Giants not giving up top prospects.
My opinion: first I will count Crick, Blackburn, Stratton, Brown, Hembree, Susac, Williamson, Mejia, Dominguez, and Panik as prospects I would not include in any deal for a rental.
Nolasco: Heston,Pill
Gallardo: Blackburn, Pill
Norris: Blackburn, Pill, Monell
Lee: see Norris, add Hembree
Garza’s value has gone through the roof, he’ll probably cost close to a #1 package even as a rental. Too much. I’ve looked at Dominguez more and I’ve changed my mind. Frankly, I figured he’d flatten out at AA LEVEL. With the uncertainty surrounding Pablo now, I agree with Chi and others that we need to keep him around. At least to find out if he’s Pill or a keeper.
Well, here’s what my full season predictions break down to for a half season. actual numbers to right of predictions. Position players, regulars.
Posey ..310 12-48 .900……312 12-48 .916
Belt .270 11-43 .820 ……263 9-35 .780
Scooter .265 4-26 .720…..312 2-18 .773
Crawford .255 4-28 .710….262 5-28 .701
Sandoval .305 15- 52 .890……264 8-37 .687
Blanco .250 2-18 .675…..274 1-26 .702
Torres .265 4-21 .770….264 2-18 .682
Pagan .280 5-31 .780…inc
Pence .275 12-41 .800….276 12-43 .794
So Sandoval is way way off. Other that, pretty close to what I thought. Belt a little less than my call. Blanco/Torres were projected as a platoon and they’ve played somewhat more. Just guesstimating, I’d say Blanco is somewhat higher than my call, Torres less ( I expected Torres to get more starts than Blanco as time went on). The only significant surprise either way is Pablo however. Scooter has a much higher BA than I thought, and OPS.
Whether it’s Sandoval, Crawdad, or Scooter, I give zero credit for playing hurt.
Pitchers:
Prediction first:
Cain: 8-4 .295 1.15…..5-4 4.29 1.073
MadBum 8-5 3.20 1.05…8-5 3.08 1.000
Timmy 7-5 3.60 1.30……4-9 4.66 1.435
Zito 6-5 4.20 1.35….4-6 4.44 1.615
Vogie 6-5 3.45 1.25….. inc
Romo 1-1, 2–2 ?? 12-15 saves 1.10…..3-3 2.32 19- 22 1.000
Well, MadBum was right on. Romo I expected to not finish the season as the closer, so that number is a really an incomplete, but he’s been better than I thought. Cain and Timmy have been quite a bit worse than I anticipated and Zito somewhat worse. Cain’s WHIP suggests that a better second half should be in store and he’s already on track..Vogelsong was, well, terrible.
My five surprises regarding the season so far (MFSRTSSF):
1. The so-far successful emergence of Sandy Rosario. Ditto for Dunning. So far.
2. The not-awful hitting of Torres and Blanco, so far. Doomerish me feared that their hitting could have fallen off so far that they would have been DFAed by now.
3. The stunning drop-off in hitting after hand injuries to Scutaro and Crawford. So far.
4. That the Giants would cascade this far down, so fast, so far.
5. That Belt would not be crushing the ball onto a 25-hr, 100-rbi season, so far.
Their overall record isn’t surprising considering the staggering number of injuries that core members of the team have incurred. Voggy, Casilla, Gaudin, Pagan, Scoots, Crawford, Panda…..no team is set to have capable back ups at all these positions…
. . . so far.
The biggest first-half surprise to me is the starting pitching overall. It’s been so good and so dominant overall the last several years that it was easy to take it for granted. “Giants baseball- torture!” was all about being in a lot of low-scoring pitching duels. The essence and beauty of “We score, we win” is the fact that the starting pitching would dominate the other team, and the Giants didn’t need a juggernaut offense. It was the core of using AT&T Park to its full advantage. It’s what made the Giants special and two-time World Champs in the last three years. It was the Giants’ IDENTITY. Every great team needs an identity. And right now……the Giants are struggling to find an identity. It has to begin with the pitching, and the encouraging thing is that the pitching has been better of late. But it’s still not dominant. I’m not as concerned about the hitting as I am about the pitching; but obviously the hitting is a concern, too. The injuries took a toll there, and we need guys back at full strength.
And I’m for bringing up Kieschnick and giving him some starts in LF. They’ve kicked the tires on several guys in LF, and Kiesch is putting up good numbers in Fresno. What the heck. Like it would kill the Giants momentum to give him a try?
zumiee, I thoroughly agree about team identity. You build an organization that way. (Didn’t Bow Tie even put out an in-house corporate book on The Giants Way?) The Bonds years built on him, for good and for ill. And once a new era began, the Giants built their IDENTITY around pitching, especially starting pitching — but bullpen also (Wilson, anyone? Romo?). That is the core, the cornerstone, the anchor, the bedrock, the ontological root.
I think that Roger’s .265 BA and *90* strike outs in a hitters league rule him out for a call up. Which probably means he’s on a plane to SF now…
Seriously, I think OFer call ups have been maxed out until September, barring injury..IMO
Yesterday, while driving to the casino (don’t ask) I heard part of the Mets game. A Dback (maybe Parra?) had a drag-bunt double! Crazy! The excited Mets announcers said the last they could recall a bunt double was by Furcal, with the Braves. (Cody Ross, who kills the Mets, was on first; he and another guy eventually scored.) Then the announcers speculated whether a “bunt” triple were possible — concluding it would have to be Suzuki in his prime, coaxing the ball on the line with infielders shifted. Made for good listening.
I saw that play. It was very cool. He bunted it through the hole past the charging firstbaseman. I’m not much for “cap tipping,” but I tip my cap to Parra on that play.
It was interesting to hear the Mets broadcasters quote Kirk Gibson about what kind of team he was trying to build this year. He wanted a team of gamers, who can grind their way through low-scoring games, and have versatility on defense. He’s basically saying he wants his team to be like the Giants of the last few years. Copying is the highest form of flattery. The flaw in his efforts is their bullpen, though. Low-scoring wins demand a good bullpen, and AZ has question marks there.
Casilla had a rough night at San Jose, 4 hits and a walk in 2/3 inning. Reported to be at 92/93 fastball.
I like Casilla a lot, but when times are tough, missing contributors are often remembered a little more fondly than is warranted.
As you know, set up guys can blow saves, too. As a non-closer, Casilla has 2 blown saves ( in 9 SVO) in his SF career. Affeldt alone has 4 8th inning blown saves( 0 for 4) in just the first half of this year. We miss Santiago.
Yes, he is missed. But he would have fucked up a time or two.
Well, maybe. Counting this year, he’s had 47 “save situations” as a non-closer as a Giant. He has 35 holds, 10 saves, and 2 blown saves. The “hold” stat is somewhat justifiably criticized but that’s an impressive record nonetheless- 47 times as a non-closer he’s entered the game after the 5th inning in a save situation and he has relinquished the lead TWICE. (Note: for 2012 I had to do the totals from his game logs, since he began the season as the closer. The totals as a closer for 2012 are 13 Save situations 12 holds, 1 save., by my count).
This is fully available only to those with a subscription, but the line of argument is easy enough to follow:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19162
If a decent staring pitcher is available for a couple of Zach Wheeler’s, good riddance, I say. Of course, I’ll always think the trade for Beltran was one of the smartest moves Sabes ever made, irrespective of how Wheeler’s career turns out.
Sandoval is the one big question mark right now in what would otherwise be a pretty solid core of young players to fill in around for the next 2-3 years (2 starting pitchers, and most of the IF).
So can you be more specific? Using the most often named available pitchers, what do give up for them? Garza and Nolasco are rentals. Gallardo is signed thru next year. Lee thru 2015 or 2016. Norris thru 2015.
The post was really just a way of saying I’d err on the side of recklessness. Rental, locked up for a year etc, please improve the starting pitching. The division is very winnable.
I have no idea who the Giants’ best prospects are, just that none of them are as well known as Posey was. The article does make the point that organizations know their own players best and more often than not make judgments accordingly. So, in theory, if Sabes doesn’t pull the trigger, it should be in large part because he knows that the prospects he’s holding on to are better than Wheeler and/or what’s on offer from other teams doesn’t fill him with as much confidence as Beltran did.
Not baseball related-
I saw the first two episodes of “Under The Dome,” and liked the show enough to set the DVR for record. It’s based on a Stephen King book I haven’t read, but coincidentally, I checked out his “11/22/63” from the library and have it as probable next on the reading queue.
I’ve been watching “Longmire,” also. It’s a pretty good mystery series set in Montana or Wyoming, I can’t remember which. It co-stars Katee Sackhoff, who’s pretty cool.
OK, on TV: The best new actor I’ve seen on TV this year is the guy in the “It’s not complicated” ATT commercials, Beck Bennett. He is absolutely brilliant, IMO- I have never seen an adult who is REALLY a kid. Just a deep voiced kid.
100% totally agree.
Zum, so far the show seems to be sticking pretty close to the book, but it’s been a few years since I read it. I enjoyed 11/22/63, except I started wanting it to get to the end a bit sooner. Fun read though.
I found the SF Chronicle sports section to be unreadable today. It’s all Puig, Puig, Puig.
Jenkins called the Giants roadtrip “a disgrace.” Whatever. Like Jenkins isn’t secretly rooting for the Dodgers, anyway.
I’m no big Jenkins fan, but I don’t see “disgrace” being far off. Anytime a rainout is greeted with near glee, you know it’s been beyond bad. I’d use disaster; disgrace may have a bit too much of a perjorative aspect that may not be deserved, they didn’t intentionally set out to suck on the roadie, or the last 50 games, for that matter…
I haven’t read the “disgrace” article, but one of Jenkins’ best or worst traits, dependiing on how one looks at it, is his willingness to be up front without worrying about it. I don’t judge a sportswriter by whether I agree with every opinion, I’m about 50-50 on that with Jenkins. I do judge him/her by their passion for the sport and knowledge of it and ability to convey that passion and knowledge. Jenkins passes on all fronts, IMO. As I’ve mentioned before, I may be biased because we used to have a regular Email correspondence, although that was mostly about our fathers.
I’m not surprised by anything including the rash of injuries. I don’t expect the Giants to win every season. Why not this one? Players have bad seasons for various reasons. Pablo looks to be having one this year. Pence not so hot for all his drama. Pagan another player lost to a serious injury. Belt is never going to be a first base type of hitter. He’ll always have modest numbers for that position. Just my opinion. Of course I would love to be wrong.
Nipper, these days getting unusually verbose…
as long as Belt keeps hitting better than Crawford, we’re all good!
You had me nodding in agreement prior to Belt. Good post, Nip.
My biggest surprises:
Cain – slow start out of the gate (he does seem to be coming around)
Vogelsong – no way I would have expected the almost total meltdown we saw
Juan Perez – undrafted out of HS, versatile, plus arm, good D
Sandoval – no way I saw the WS MVP sliding to the point he is at now. Will be interesting to see if he can recover.
Hey Chi—-aren’t you going to the game tonight? You better get your tail down to ATT before long—especially if you’re going to have a few cold ones before the game. Hangtown to ATT is about a 3 hour journey—no?
Have fun and bring home a win for us!
San – not tonight…going to the series finale on Sunday. So, I have plenty of time for a few cold ones. 😉 And yes, it is about 2.5 – 3 hours from Old Hangtown.
I’ll be on the road Sunday morn around 8:30 that morning (taking the lead sled) so that I can be there close to when the gates open (I like to take in batting practice, etc.). So, we get to see Gaudin’s first start since being back from the DL.
Someone snatched-up the tix I was eyeing in LB section 123, so we’ll be in 232 (Club level) Row A. Should be bitching seats.
Time for the Giants to put a WHOOP ASS on the LA Bumbinos!
Twin mentioned the AT&T *bigger is better* commercials earlier today and I concur, the adult actor (thanks for identifying him Twin: Beck Bennett) is hilarious and awesome. I told my buddy during the Super Bowl (after one of those commercials) that I think he’s going to blow up into a huge star. They’re all equally funny. I’ve often wondered how many takes they have to go through before they hit on comedic gold.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_OGAa3ytcQ
Agree with you and Twin. And it’s not just Beck Bennett (tnx for that info): the kids and the writing. Minor flaw: some of the more recent installments sound adult-written; the earliest ones sounded brilliantly natural. So, a hat’s off to the director, too.
Pawlie texted me earlier today that the twitterworld is abuzz about us acquiring Francoeur. If we did get him I’d be cautiously optimistic. He’s always had talent and, whether it’s a button he pushes or whatever, he can turn on decent slash lines from time to time. Of course, he can also produce some putrid ones.
But his arm has always been golden and he’s 29 and finishing off the last deal he’s gonna get if he doesn’t finish strong. If it got Torres and Blanco out of the LU daily it might be worth kicking the tires on…..
here’s a well written, encompassing blog article on Jeff Francoeur. Interesting read.
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2013/06/saying-goodbye-to-jeff-francoeur.html
Cool. Thanks. I’d lost track of his career. I was at a game where he threw a Giant out at homeplate. Is there a term for when a guy just can’t hit major league pitching anymore? Aaron Rowand disease, or something like that?
I hope Puig catches that this weekend. Oh snap!!
Cole Gillespie up, Perez down. Pagan to 60-day DL
1. Andres Torres (S) CF
2. Marco Scutaro (R) 2B
3. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B
4. Buster Posey (R) C
5. Hunter Pence (R) RF
6. Brandon Belt (L) 1B
7. Cole Gillespie (R) LF
8. Brandon Crawford (L) SS
9. Matt Cain (R) P
Gillespie? Eh, I guess he could run into one. He’s just another “Brett Pill” though. Might get a timely hit now and again but he can’t hit major league pitching consistently to stick at this level.
Well, I wanted something/anything, and was hoping for Kieschnick, so Gillespie’s not thrilling; but hey, it’s something. Let’s hope for ye olde lightning in a bottle.
yeah, lightning in a bottle. He’ll have the game winning hit tonight. Everyone will get all jazzed up and then reality will set it. he sucks.
Lately they’ve been playing Torres pretty much everyday and sitting Blanco against almost all LHers. It will be interesting to see if that changes.
if they picked up Frenchie, he’d probably get most of the at bats vs LH’s, at least for a couple of weeks to see what he has to offer……
There’s rolling the dice, and then there’s ROLLING THE DICE. 🙂
There’s rolling the dice and then there’s Russian Roulette–and then of course there’s Kokonuts at the Roulette table and I’m told that trumps both 😉
It’ll change because they’re both so streaky. Bochy will go with the hot(ter) hand until it fizzles out for a while. Torres, Blanco, and Crawford are cool awesome guys, and key parts of the puzzle; but they all have the same problem. Their swings are too big. They thrill us with the occasional titanic homerun, but they should be shortening their swings more often, just trying to get basehits. But they take their big swings, and strike out too much, and hit too many fly balls.
I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and say they are trying to hit line drives.
it’s hard to hit line drives. 25% is fantastic, if you can do it…..
Well, it’s hard to imagine Gillespie taking over LF. Based on how Bochy has played them ( Torres has started 26 of 30 games since June 1 and Blanco 23 of 30) Gillespie will start for Blanco against LHers. What is most likely to change other that would be Belt getting starts. IMO. Frenchie should get a minor league deal as they did with Burrell, if anything. Again, IMO.
I was talking about Frenchie, should we acquire him
I know, and I was talkng about Gillespie, I was aware of your post but not replying to it. It’s pretty hard to imagine Francouer taking over, either. I imagine they’d sign him to a minor league deal first , as I said at the end of my comment.
From MLBTradeRumors:
“Both the Dodgers and Giants have made open offers to acquire Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. The Dodgers are reportedly offering a pitching prospect and would take on the approximately $5.7MM remaining on Nolasco’s deal. The Giants’ offer, on the other hand, would send two pitching prospects to Miami but would also require some dollars to accompany Nolasco to San Fran.”
The Giants pitching prospects (2) better be somebody I never heard of. Why would the Giants ever want money to come with the player from a place like Miami? Miami wants to get rid of salary, Loria is money driven. The Giants revenue engine is in hyperdrive, so WTF are they doing demanding a salary clawback deal?…
excellent point. There is no sound reason that the Dodgers are cool with taking on salary but the Giants would prefer to move prospects for him. ZERO. NONE.
And as expected, the team doesn’t think Pagan will return this year.
I’ll admit I know little of this Cole Gillespie kid. “Kid”, he’s 29, been in the minors since 2006 (Brewers drafted, then AZ a coupla years). What is this, Sabes playing Spin the Bottle OFers from Fresno? This weekly up and down of the AAAers shows how bare the cupboard is down there. One appears about as good/bad as another. Why not Kieschnick, do we have to wait ’til he’s 29, too?…
They don’t want a LH hitter and they want Roger to spend the year in AAA..
Contradicting, perhaps, the earlier item on Nolasco .”San Francisco could instead stand pat. Shea tweets that, according to Sabean, the Giants will not make any acquisitions unless the team turns around its play before the deadline.”
Can’t blame management for taking this stance; why go all in if there’s “no there there,” as Gertrude Stein is purported to have said of Oakland?
I’m guessing they think Gillespie won’t embarrass himself and it wouldn’t surprise me if he did something ala Pill—If they aren’t bringing up Kiesh it means they know he can’t hit a breaking ball.
Magnus, cap tip on your 5:41pm — after a resounding FU hahahaha. I’m pretty sure Gillespie does not thrill me. Folks got all lathered up over Perez, and he didn’t even live up to being a Gillaspie, give or take a vowel, Vanna. (I once saw Vanna White filming a commercial in Manhattan in the Eighties. She was a hottie but tinier than you might think from seeing her on the screen.) Heck, Perez wasn’t even Darren Ford-Rohlinger. [pause for Twin’s statistical rebuttal]
Perez was swinging the bat better than Kieschnick or Brown at the time.
Main thing is they want those two playing everyday, not once or twice a week.
Game thread, dude?
absolutely. I’m gonna swing down the hill, pick up my kid from the pool and I’ll have one going by the first inning.
Er, I might have a pop or two down there, better get one up now. 🙂
always rubbing in that paradisiacal Cali lifestyle
I texted this to Magnus and will blurt it out here [because *impulse control* and my personality don’t get along; in fact, they are always in divorce proceedings]: TONIGHT is really in effect the beginning of the second half of the season, not post-All-Star Game. The wretched road trip is over. Time to see if we are real. That time is now.
“[pause for Twin’s statistical rebuttal]”
Nah, he disappointed. I did caution about the early euphoria, he never had or will have a ceiling beyond that of 4/5 OFer. But man, seldom does a kid get figured so quickly. He was utterly lost. I had thought he’d be a nice reserve.
He didn’t get figured out so much as he just swung at everything. it’s pretty easy to beat if you swing at shadows in the dark……..
This is where Nipper comes in and says: “Flavor goes for the metaphor of the week.”
For sheer rookie enthusiasm, I’ll never forget one Larry Herndon. The dude was on fire. In one game — for all I know, it was even beyond his first year — he couldn’t resist getting in on the action and was in a rundown at third base! It was reckless, but so was Mays crashing into Bonds against the chain-link fence. I said something about it to him in the Pittsburgh locker room in 1978 [unless I’m in a psychotic fugue], and he quietly and humbly mumbled thanks. He did go on to have good years with Detroit, right? Larry Herndon. He exploded onto the scene.
Well, they figured out that he swung at everything 😉
A Kieschnick stat that I found interesting was that he’s hit 9 triples so far. He’s either faster than I was aware of, or there’s some funky ballpark configurations in some of those AAA ballparks.
gotta laugh when you hear Bochy talk about someone “not ready to hit mlb pitching.” I mean, he would know best, since that’s what he’s been watching for most of the last few weeks.
yup
Why does Cain throw a mid plate curveball to Puig on pitch #1, which gets ripped for a double? I’d roll it up there, he swings at Pitch #1 all the time…
What is Bochy waiting for? Get Cain outta there…
Guess he was waiting for an Uribe triple to clear the bags and blow the game wide open. Horrible call by Bochy…
Yet another hit by an opposing pitcher, this time with an RBI.
WTF is going on with our pitchers…
Ugh. Game over.
I’m with Sabean, as I’ve said the last coupla days, there’s no reason to be a buyer if it’s not going to make any difference — might as well hold onto prospects. SF has to pull out of this free fall on this homestand, or this thing will be over by mid-July…
G’night Flappers…
Just woke up to watch the game. Read a few of the early posts but did not see anyone mention Matt Cain as an uncomfortable surprise this season. I know some of his numbers have been close to his career averages this season. Except his ERA, 5 wins in 17 starts, alread past his season average for HRs.
His failure and, for me, his leadership (as a winner) directly mimics the team’s failures this year. To NOT see him “turn things around” after a bad start in May baffles me, is surprising and leads me to believe there is an evil spirit that exists in the uniforms and equipment of this team from tip to tail. Other than that you gotta believe.
Hey, where is everyone?
Uribe : 7 RBI tonight