Taking a *Closer* Look At Sergio Romo
Romo has had kind of a weird year. Mostly because we’ve been out of it most of the year, he’s been largely an afterthought. He’s managed to log 35 saves in 2013 and that ranks tied for 11th in MLB. When I evaluate a closer I look almost exclusively at his K/BB ratio. Closers who throw pitches that get him, whether they’re ground balls or fly balls, are more likely to fail than closers who miss bats with their pitches. Once again, Romo has checked in with a stellar K/BB ratio of around 5.5:1. His WHIP is outstanding at 1.05.
An interesting stat I’ve started to look at more closely has been what a pitcher’s OPS is (as in, the OPS of the opposing batters). Curiously, for pitchers who have pitched 40+ innings this year, he’s 42nd at .597 surrounded by fellow closer’s Farquhar, Blafour, Grilli and Ziegler. I thought he’d be ranked higher than that.
Something that’s surprised me this year about the closer’s: there hasn’t been a huge turnover as in year’s past. Without looking it up, I can only remember the Seattle closer (Wilhelmsen?) and League losing their jobs due to ineffectiveness this year. A few others got hurt and were replaced. But it always seems like there is a much more volatile turnover for the closer role each year (due to repeated gas can implosions). Maybe I’m imagining that……
A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball 
Closers are pretty hard to judge, except for the obvious fails like Axford or Marmol I always wonder about shelf life of Romo– he’s had physical issues with legs, he doesn’t throw as hard as others and relying on a slider can get you in trouble. I think he’s had a pretty good year, but I still think closers are overrated and overpaid. The blown save is a stat I always look at in boxes, and there’s a lot of them to see.
Kruk always over sells Giants pitchers, it’s what he does. He looks for the good in all of them, usually prefacing even the suckiest with, “When he’s right, you’ll see…” intro.
I don’t think Bochy had near the pen depth he would have liked this year, and the injuries to Casilla and Affeldt made more work for guys not up to the task. Hopefully Hembree can make significant contribution next year as late inning guy alongside Lopez Romo and those two.
And also, hopefully the SPs (and I hope there are two additions to Bum Lincecum Cain) lower the runs allowed significantly. Romo is as good as about any closer in division, but Dodgers SPs ruined Giants ones this year in overall stats.
Another ex-Giant I do notice who has managed to stay in the majors and be more relevant than the cody ransoms of the world is Rajai Davis, who homered late to help Jays beat Yanks yesterday 2-0. Other than SBs he doesn’t bring much to the table, .260 avg. and barely above .300 OB, not great for a speed guy. Makes $2 mil, tho and seems to be able to hold onto a job.
Mets moved the fences in last year, like the Pads. Any idea why they are so bad at home? They have same home record as Marlins, worst in the league at 31-44.
My boss is back in Nueva York right now visiting some of the stores company owns (half dozen in NYC area, couple in Conn). Would love to see Giants ruin Yanks WC chances. I respect Ichiro a lot, but I hate to see the guy hitting .260.
It’s about 10 minutes long, but here’s some highlights from Seinfeld in the Mets booth last night. Good stuff.
http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=30700821&topic_id=8879230
If I had to choose between a MLB quality LFer and Romo, obviously I’d choose the LFer. They cost more, because they’re harder to find than closers. Beane goes with that philosophy, seems to work. Balfour has closed for two seasons now, I think. I don’t remember who the A’s closer was before that. Hell, Matt Herges was our closer for a while, he wasn’t atrocious. He was actually pretty good, for a while. If Romo got traded Nov 1, hey, thanks for the memories, and good luck. Sabes would get somebody else — or sub in Casilla, Hembree. The closers you can’t afford to have are the disasters, like Armando. Closers are meant to be replaced every couple of years…
Actually, Balfour lost the job last year to Cook, then got it back by the end of the season. This only supports your premise more so about left fielders being harder to find than closers.
Thanx for the clarification, Blade. Yes, it does support my proposition even more. I don’t pay much attention to the A’s, other than the extraneous chatter I hear on the radio about them. I would like to see them do well in the playoffs, though, despite the idiotic ownership, that is grousing all the way to the bank…
hard to find? we’ve had 41 left fielders this year 😉
Twin, it does seem that way, huh?
i think the rules are simpler for a closer- results are the only barometer. the best closers in a given year *may* also be the most dominant- whip, k/bb ratio, etc- or may not. i’m not discounting craig’s evaluations- as they do ascertain the most dominant closer, and very often the most dominant closers will also be the most successful. this year the most successful closer( by my quick tally) has been k.c’ s holland with an effective success rate ( success measured by a simple math equation involving saves, wins, losses, and blown saves)of .918 percent , closely followed by nathan’s .916. they’re ‘dominant closers’, as is kimbrell, who had a .877 effective success rate. romo’s was .780, well down the list. i’ve used 35 svo as the minimum to qualify. on the other hand, valverde had an effective success rate of .927 in 2011, much better than many ‘dominant’ closers( kimbrel was the very definition of ‘dominant’ but had 3 losses and 8 blown saves, for a .819 rate), and valverde and axford, as well as many others, really show the ‘volativity’ of the job, as craig has also talked about- valverde who had zero blown saves in 2011, and axford, who was far and away the greatest closer that year with a .980 rate, are both out on a ‘lidge’ now…
that’s my take, but as willie says and craig’s evaluations show, it can be hard to to judge them, i think the rather simple method i describe is a good way, others may differ. as to whether they are overpaid, maybe monthly contracts would work 😉
i agree with z that losses by a closer can’t be ignored – the double whammy is the ‘bl’- blown *and* lost. and losses by a closer can’t be pinned on the offense as legitimately as those that a starter may suffer.
Blast from the decade past: trading deadline 2003.
Sabes trades Damian Moss, Kurt Ainsworth and Ryan Hannaman to the Orioles for — Sidney Ponson…
I think Romo has been pretty serviceable. And yes, he has had a few instances where he had issues with injuries, but overall, I think those have been minimal, esp. since he became a full-time closer. So, some have had concerns about his durability, but I don’t see it as that much of an issue.
It has been discussed quite a bit about packaging Romo (and it would take more than Romo alone) in a trade for an OFer with some pop. I agree that he respresents the Giants best trade chip, but am not sure that the team is ready for that change now (it would mean Casilla closing next year…and he has closed…and Hembree probably as the set-up guy). I just am not certain that I am comfortable going into next year with that set-up.
for those interested, pavlovic has a good piece on crick in yesterday’s merc.
http://tinyurl.com/kwg6adn
If Crick does well in the AFL and gets his innings in, I would not be shocked if he has a shot at making the roster mid-year next year. Cain pitched in SF at 20. Crick will be 21 in Nov., per the article. If he has control in hand during ST and a handful of starts at AA, I don’t see waiting a helluva long time longer. He won’t need to go to AAA, just bring him up. There are only so many pitches in an arm…
Romo has been very consistent from year to year, whether as closer or set up. That is his chief value. There aren’t many like him. The dude is plain good.
Is he as valuable as an above average position player? Nobody who throws 60 innings a year is.
Agreed, and that is why I said that if he were traded for an OFer…he would be one of the pieces in a package for the trade.
I don’t care if Larry Baer is the closer, as long as we win.
I agree, Pawlie. I sent you an email (A New York State of Mind) re: Finnerty’s. Did you get it?
Are you taking in any of the games in NY?
It would mean a lot — to me — if the Giants rolled off 11 straight wins and finished at .500. #11straight
Like.
Hey Flappers, don’t forget “Yoga Day at the Park, Saturday, September 28”. Seriously, yoga day at the park? Yeesh.
Om
Yeah, that one’s a stretch. Har de har. 🙂
Yeah, but the good news is that the favorite color of the Dalai Lama is orange (ok, he likes maroon too).
Whatta maroon.
White Shark, powering it up.
That power hitting Blanco surprises the RF with a shallow fly. I think you could even see Brown blush after that clank.
Fuck. 2010 redux…
So, we have seen the best and worst of both. For those who think this winter is the time to package Romo (who do you package) for an OFer/bat, how do you feel now? Are you ready for Hembree and Casilla having your back for the 8th/9th?
Breathe…
Pence would have NAILED his ass…one more out, baby!
Fuck. Maybe that Romo package for an OF with pop doesn’t look too bad…Un-fucking-real.
Ouch! Ya know, the Giants ain’t easy.
That sucked.
Even in such an utterly meaningless game, the Giants still find a way to piss me off. Fucking awful.
I dunno, it was easier to *swallow* without being in contention. Ugly for sure and awful for Matty. He’s used to it.
I dumped a photo of me and my dad into the bucket from dinner last night. SanDawg is the only Flapper to meet Bobby Bowden’s twin voice brother. The prime rib was outstanding……
now *that’s* a dad! great pic.
Thanks. He’s a character.
what a dream, nightmare really. marmol walked two guys to open the ninth, bochy went to benitez and he blew it wide open. i woke up dripping wet. so- we won 4-1, right? right? uh, right?
In conclusion of this season…….a loud BLEEP!
former heavyweight champ ken norton passes away at 70.
http://tinyurl.com/mk77umc
He was probably the first fighter I started following as a kid. Personally very sad to hear about this.
he had some great battles with ali and holmes. and man, he was a tough battler against his many health setbacks and a terrible automobile accident.
r.i.p.
I remember liking him because no one ever gave him a chance, he was just a total “Everyman” who always overachieved. Later on, as you know, his son would be a valuable cog in the Niner Machine. Not a HOFer but a valuable cog.
I didn’t know about all his physical problems. Not the way his life should have gone. He always claimed to have never lifted weights. He and H-Walker were the only 2 muscle stud athletes I can recall claiming that.
I’ve always been a contrarian, or maybe a better term is a “hater” when it comes to sports. Whoever is the big favorite that everyone loves—I’m rooting against that guy or that team. I grew up rooting against UCLA basketball, The Lakers, and Muhammad Ali. Whoever the other guy was—Norton, Ernie Shavers, Jimmy Young, Frazier, Jerry Quarry….that was the guy I was rooting for–passioniately. I remember being furious cuz I thought Norton got ripped off in at least one of those fights with Ali. Yeah, he was just a non-flashy everyman kind of guy that was a bad ass and went toe to toe with Ali. RIP. Another sign that life is moving by pretty quickly. Blew my mind the other night when they said Pete Carroll is the second oldest coach in the NFL. He always seemed like the young, energetic guy. I know a lot of that is just his attitude and personality, but he’s damn near ready to start cashing SS checks–which for some reason really made me feel old.
Ironically, I think Norton Jr coaches for the Seahawks.
On a totally unrelated topic, one of the kids at school today got a referral for calling a staff member a “prick.” This sparked a discussion between another staff member and I. My take was that a dude calling another dude a “prick” is a highly insulting term and deserves a strong reaction. My buddy didn’t think it was much different than calling someone a douche or an asshole. I think it is much worse that either of those. I didn’t mean that it should have a stronger consequence in a school setting, but I do think in the “code” between men, calling someone a prick is one of the most fucked up things you can call another guy.
Anyone wanna weigh in on this?
Wow! They lost this game? I went to bed thinking it was in the bag. How ironic and prophetic that the thread was about Romo and a possible trade. I was already on board with using him as a trade chip . . . This morning? Even more so. Wow! Unfrickingbelievable the shit that has happened to this team. Head scratcher . . .
Casilla didn’t help the cause with 2 walks. Funny enough, he’s credited with a hold. Walks 2 of the 3 batters he faced.
All this talk about Romo highlights the fact that he’s not your typical power closer. HE’s done well this year, but when he misses with the frisbee, it’s good night Irene.