Who Is Going to be Our Biggest Surprise this Spring?

Posted in Uncategorized by Flavor on February 27, 2011

DeRosa and Sandoval have both gotten off to hot starts. If either or both had a great Spring would that surprise you? What about the pitchers? Zito and Suppan suck. If either or both excelled it would at least be a mild surprise. In fact, none of those four guys succeeding would be SHOCKING; merely, nice surprises.

Marty Lurie doesn’t see how DeRosa finds any regular playing time. I disagree. He’s really more of a 2nd/3rd baseman but he can play LF, 1st base and even shortstop. I know he doesn’t want to play the OF, so if he has a rockstar Spring I could see them putting Huff in LF and moving DeRosa to 1st base. He would have a lot to learn in a short amount of time, but that’s what Spring Training is for–it’s what Aubrey Huff used ST for last year (learning the nuances of playing first base).

I have little to no interest in what Zito and Suppan do this Spring. They could easily channel the ghost of Wellemeyer and fool us into believing they’re back. I could see Suppan bailing at the end of camp and rejoining the Cardinals (if he had a good Spring)……..

And what are we to expect from Dan Runzler this Spring? Maybe I’m missing it, but I haven’t seen any discussions about converting him to a starter (rumors we heard over the Winter).

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Sportdude said, on February 27, 2011 at 8:40 am

Wow 1st post…

I repeat..Giants FIFTH starter pitched 200 innings, ERA 4.1, WHIP 1.34

I challenge anyone to find a better 5th starter in all of MLB.
Yes I know he is slotted 4th, but come playoffs he will be out just like any other 5th starter.
Forget the money for a second, forget long term improvement (none) and remember the WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS ( that has such a cool ring to it!) need a guy to eat up innings and keep us in ballgames in the 5th slot, and our guy does that just fine.

Suppan is a scrub. NO way he performs better that Zito over the course of the season…
Sportdude said, on February 27, 2011 at 8:43 am

PS Derosa is a super sub. Plays a lot of short, 2nd, 3rd, occasional 1st. Gets 500 ab’s in that role. Panda will be back. leave Huff at 1st. Give burrel consistent ab’s in left. he earned them…just my 2 cents..
twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 8:46 am

I’ve already cited Tanner and Culberson as potential surprises, although not to make the team out of camp. Clayton could be that 6th starter…Culberson will be the second baseman by next year.
As far as DeRosa, the less playing time he gets, the better. it will take someone else to fail or be injured for him to get significant time. Most likely would be Burrell or an injury to Fruckie.
- Nipper said, on February 27, 2011 at 9:06 am
  
  Agree DeRosa may be very valuable as a plug in for injuries.
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 8:47 am

If Suppan can find a starting gig somewhere (and he will if he has a decent Spring) i would find it quite entertaining to compare their respective seasons. I am judging Zito off what he did the last 2 months of the season. Remember, from July 16th on, Barry Zito won exactly ONE game the rest of the way. That’s bottom-of-the-barrel 5th starter stuff if you ask me……
twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 8:57 am

What do they do with Suppan if he does have a good spring? He won’t be as good out of the pen as any of their relievers and he won’t go to Fresno. Seems to me that he’s really auditioning as the FIVE, with a trade forthcoming if he shows well…
Mega Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 9:03 am

I think he is auditioning; for other teams. Barring an injury, zito is on our team and one of the five. We know this. He’s not getting traded. And suppan can bounce at the end of ST. There are several teams that will take him if he has a good spring (cards and yanks most likely, IMO)
twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 9:13 am

I didnt say or infer that Zito would go- the candidate, as always, would be Dirty.But I don’t see the logic in any of it unless Suppan makes the team- they do need a sixth starter.
- twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 9:15 am
  
  The best scenario is the guy lays an egg and Tanner or Sosa show well and await in Fresno..
Mega Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 9:26 am

I thought u were talking about zito. Dirrrrrrty isn’t getting traded either. For who? For what? We’ve got position players coming out of our asses right now.
twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 9:35 am

They could still use a real LFer, as in one who can both hit and field the position…
Dirtnrocksnreno said, on February 27, 2011 at 9:37 am

Scheirholtz will have a good spring making the leisure class of Danville proud.
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 10:31 am

DIRT, I figured you’d like those 2 BB Vegas Whores. I’m sure Mr Loo will appreciate them. ANd I’m fuckin’ ecstatic that SJNewsMan can’t double click on the pics to make them any larger. Who knows what better resolution would do to him!
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 11:04 am

Just saw a pic of Bartolo Colon who is trying to make the Yankees squad. If it were possible for a person to devour themselves and then get photographed, that is what Colon looks like to me……..
snarkk said, on February 27, 2011 at 11:30 am

DeRosa will be the new Uribe. He’ll have to check the LU card everyday to see if, and where, he’s playing. He can handle that. If he stays healthy, he should get at least 400 ABs…
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 11:44 am

I’ll tell you who isn’t going to be the new Uribe: Miguel Tejada. He’s drawing comparisons to Uribe and it’s misguided. Uribe is four years younger than Tejada, for starters. Miggy is in decline where Uribe still had an upside. In fact, Miggy’s power-outage is alarming. In 2008 and 2009 he hit 13/14 HR’s respectively. And that was in HOUSTON, one of the great launching pads in all of MLB. Not only did he not take advantage of that, he only hit 4/5 HR’s in those 2 years on the road. Yikes. He did manage 15 HR’s last year but half of them were hit in Aug/Sept. I guess I’d rather he hit them in the last half rather than the first half. But Renteria had a monster 2nd half the season he before he came to us .812 OPS post all star break compared to .627 OPS pre-all star break. And look how that turned out……
If Miggy appreciates the dimensions of ATT and settles for gap-to-gap power, he’ll be ok, I think. But if he tries to go bombs away this year, this is going to get ugly…….
Nipper said, on February 27, 2011 at 12:01 pm

Sabean likes them mature and experienced. Tejada fits right in.
snarkk said, on February 27, 2011 at 12:02 pm

BF upgraded from yesterday, big DD time. These blonde BBs are L to R, Kendra Wilkinson, Holly Madison. Airhead eye candy of Hef’s of the “Girls Next Door”, the brain cell killing “reality” show on E Network showcasing their exploits with Hef, usually at the Playboy Mans. Later, Holly kinda left Hef, but he then gave both their own jiggle and giggle shows “Kendra” and “Holly’s World” on E. Totally, totally Emmy material. 83-year old Hef moved on to the 19 year old Shannon twins (BF, find a BB pic of them), but has since dumped them for his latest 23 year old soulmate and fiance, Crystal. If I even get to 83, I’ll be ecstatic if I get a weekly sponge bath from a 60 year-old LVN…
snarkk said, on February 27, 2011 at 12:14 pm

BTW, from yesterday’s question on match the number of different title winners over the past 30 years with the league, here it is:

19 — MLB
15 — NFL
14 — NHL
8 — NBA

So much for the NFL boasting about parity. Baseball beats it…
eddacker415 said, on February 27, 2011 at 12:32 pm

shit, snarkk, I had a real ‘mother-daughter’ fantasy going with the BBs
thanks a lot
- snarkk said, on February 27, 2011 at 12:48 pm
  
  Eddy, you can invent new fantasies with them. Anyway, they’re way too old for Hef — late 20s, early 30s. He probably just stopped paying them to sleep in the other room and then hand him his slippers in the morning…
twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 1:18 pm

Uribe was also “in decline” when the Giants got him- BIG TIME. Tejada will be an upgrade.
- James said, on February 27, 2011 at 1:50 pm
  
  Tejada’s adjusted OPS with SD was 104, while Uribe’s was 99. If Tejada’s offensive performance does turn out to be a drop off, I’ll bet it won’t be much of one.
James said, on February 27, 2011 at 1:32 pm

The other interesting Miggy stat is that he’s been the GIDP league leader 6 of the last 8 years. He is all set up to become a true Flap Favorite . . . .
Mega Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 1:42 pm

Uribe came to the giants when he was 30. Tejada is 36. And no longer taking steroids. Comparing him to uribe is short sighted. Just by looking at their ages and different points in their careers should tell u that
Mega Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 1:49 pm

And I’m not down on the tejada signing. I’d rather see him play third but whatever. And it’s only a year deal. I will HOPE that an increase in doubles will save his OPS. But his power is gone. He might not hit 13 hrs this year.
Rough Trade said, on February 27, 2011 at 2:39 pm

Wasn’t just the number, but when Uribe hit them. It raises an interesting question: Who will provide the clutch hr’s?

Tejada last 4 yrs: 18, 13, 14, 15, with the 14 coming in that bandbox in Hous. I don’t think he’s going to replace Uribe’s power, nor do I think the G’s expect that. They needed a solid .270/12-14/65 guy there and he should give them that. The power could be made up for with Pablo & DeRosa having much better yr’s. But imo, it’s when they are hit that is key here.
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 2:48 pm

There’s an interesting Shandler stat that he uses to predict power, it’s called Linear Weighted Power Index (PX). The formula would bore you so I won’t list it here unless you really want to know it. BUt basically, any player with a PX over 100 has above average power skills. Over 150 is elite power skills. Tejada’s last 5 PX’s, starting with 2006 were 98, 82,82,89, and last year….69. If he was younger I could see him bouncing back but it’s tough to turn that # around in your mid-30’s (without steroids). If I was forced to throw out a number, I would say he hits 10 home runs this year……….
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 2:56 pm

His ISO numbers suck too, backing up the PX decline that I listed above…….
James said, on February 27, 2011 at 2:58 pm

Uribe had an incredibly high number of opportunities to drive in runs last year, His RBI total certainly reflects that, especially compared to Huff. Uribe actually had 396 runners on in 668 PAs and Uribe had 396(!) in 575 PAs. Uribe was a damn lucky clutch hitter last year.
- James said, on February 27, 2011 at 3:00 pm
  
  Whoops, that’s Huff w/ 395 runners n in 668 PAs.
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 3:03 pm

As I said though, I’m moderately optimistic that tejada hits a lot of doubles this year—if he stays healthy, 35-38 would be doable. How long he can hang at SS is anybody’s guess, though. He’s really more of a 3rd baseman at this point in the twilight of his career…..
Rough Trade said, on February 27, 2011 at 3:06 pm

Maybe more apropos to think of him as a replacement for Renteria.
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 3:15 pm

then 10 hr’s from him would replace Renteria quite nicely…….
twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 3:16 pm

Flavoro is conveniently leaving out Uribe’s three years prior to joining the Giants. This will be the friendliest LF Tejada has played at- he’ll have a career resurgeance, as Uribe did. Age? Tejada is in FAR better shape than the portly, injury prone Uribe..
Macdog said, on February 27, 2011 at 3:23 pm

Even a dozen HRs would put Tejada in the top one-third of MLB shortstops. And I’ll gladly take 30-plus doubles. That’s damn good production out of SS. As for his fielding, the Giants just won a WS with Uribe and Renteria playing SS. Tejada can’t possibly be any more immobile than those two.
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 3:25 pm

I didn’t leave it out, I referenced it. I said that Uribe came to us at 30 years old—bouncing back at 30 is easier to do than at 36. At 36 you don’t bounce back, you just bounce. And both the PX and ISO numbers are saying the same thing about the Tejada—his power is going, going, gone! . If steroids were still apart of the game I could potentially see a a bounce back year in the power dept. But they aren’t. I’ll be happy to be wrong but I’m sticking with my 10 HR prediction. We need to start writing all this stuff down……
A better bet would be who do you think will have the higher OPS in 2011. I’ll say Uribe checks in at .750, Tejada at .690
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 3:27 pm

Macdog– agreed, but at what cost? When your power starts to go those fly balls you used to hit out of the park now just go to the warning track–or maybe not even there–that has a pretty devastating effect on your stats across the board. Like I said, he better start hitting a lot of line drives……
snarkk said, on February 27, 2011 at 3:31 pm

I don’t like old dudes. But, as far as they go, Tejada is a good one. He can’t possibly be worse than Rent unless he gets hurt and can’t play. And DeRosa + Pablo if they come back, will more than make up for Uribe’s RBI’s when added to Tejada’s. Plus, if Tejada is dust in the wind, it’s only a one year deal. Meanwhile, this Culberson kid sounds like Franchez’ replacement…
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 3:34 pm

Miggy’s HR/f % (the % of balls he hits in the air that leave the yard):
2006: 16%
2007: 13%
2008: 8%
2009: 8%
2010: 8%…..
and don’t forget he was playing in Houston in 08 and 09 so he shouldn’t have seen a % drop. Left field is a fucking joke in that park……..
twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 3:38 pm

You’re pretty furiously seeking out obscure stats to back your wrongo prediction. You did that with Torres as well-we know -how that turned out.
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 3:44 pm

Torres? Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Find me another player who never did shit at the MLB level and then exploded at age 32. I hope you’re not using that to support a Miggy Rebirth. Torres has absolutely nothing to do with Tejada. And I’m hardly the only one predicting a power outage for him, EVERYONE who can read those numbers is predicting it. It’s not rocket science, you just have to know what they mean……..
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 3:46 pm

and I’m noticing you’re not using any numebr to support your re-birth prediction other than “just ‘cuz”….
Macdog said, on February 27, 2011 at 3:50 pm

The age factor is definitely a legit concern, but Tejada does keep himself in good shape as shown by the # of games he plays every year. As someone mentioned earlier, replacing Uribe’s clutch HRs is a big issue for me.

Snarkk oughta get a Pulitzer for his daily reports on the BBs. Great job!
- Rough Trade said, on February 27, 2011 at 4:06 pm
  
  Should be plenty of cleavage tonight on the red carpet. Will Snarrk be providing any special insights er critiques?
stixwiz said, on February 27, 2011 at 3:59 pm

Today’s 4-3 loss in the desert to the Snakes means mainly nothing, but did show for a couple of indicators. Curiously the Ryan Vogelsong reclamation project was good for a couple scoreless innings. Pablo showed Panda power in his second consecutive outing. The game was lost in the 8th when Casilla the younger and Alex Hinshaw let the Snakes plate all four runs.

Can we draw any conclusions? Not many. Pandapower early on is a good sign. This early on its still a bit of an outlier, but it does look like a sign of Spring ~ something like the first robin. Arizona played more of their regulars for more of the game than SF did and were not able to score against a medley of SF pitchers beginning with Cain until they got to the two previously mentioned. One bad outing isn’t gonna send either of them into permanent perdition, though their stock probably dropped just a tad.

Come around the middle of March and those ST games will tighten up a bit and begin to give some pretty good hints as to developments. So for now about all we can say for sure is that it sure is nice to see the World Champs on the field once again.
- twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 4:06 pm
  
  Neither of those pitchers had a prayer of making the team.
twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 4:00 pm

The correlation with Torres is simple- you were wrongo, I was right. Bill James predicts 17 HR 84 RBI for Tejada, BTW…more RBI than I call, fewer HR. I’ll take it.
twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 4:17 pm

But enough about my uncanny predictions- lose the air brushed bimbos. That’s teeny crap…do WOMEN frighten you guys?
James said, on February 27, 2011 at 4:18 pm

Looking at the team clutch stats (7th inning or later, ahead by 1, tied or tying run on deck), Uribe hit 5 HRs. Next in line is Rowand with 4, in just over half as many ABs. Torres was the team’s best late inning clutch player by far, with 18 RBIs, 2 more than Uribe. Juan actually ranked 10th on the team by OPS.

As a team, the Giants were average int he late innings. There’s no reason to think others won’t step up this year to produce at least same results this year.
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 4:36 pm

your predictions are always 100% rose-colored positive. The ONLY player I remember who you took a negative stance on before he started playing with us was Garko. Congrats, you nailed that one. There’s a long list, we could call it the “Ort-Rod List” of guys that didn’t live up to your predictions. I don’t think Pablo hit 35 bombs last year, did he? You supported Rowand until it was physically impossible to do so any longer.
The bimbo’s are staying for the long haul. After ST is over, instead of a countdown I might just have them “counting”. that can go on forever. Or at least till they hit triple digits. I’m not even sure if the current countdown is correct anymore. In fact, I hope it’s not. That’s actually makes it better….
twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 4:37 pm

Side note- Marty Lurie? He’s a fucking idiot.
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 4:39 pm

Lurie is an idiot but he means well; clearly a nice guy. And I am pretty sure he’s working overtime and not getting paid. That guy has more spots than all the other shows combined…….
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 4:43 pm

I could listen to Lurie for days on end compared to even an hour of that idiot Mychal Urban who spends 75% of his show defending his *best bud* Zito……
twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 4:47 pm

You were totally on board with Panda last year… Long list? Start…And I NEVER supported Rowand beyond saying he was better than the alternatives. What I did call- he’d sit as soon as Burrell showed he could still hit..In fact, I was the first (and only) to point out how his splits guaranteed that he wouldn’t hit here.. but look, I’m sure it’s comforting to have Soph with you on Tejada..Now follow your own rule and drop it. Our positions are clear, we’ll see how it plays out..
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 5:02 pm

I was NOT on board with Panda as the year progressed. I talked about dropping him in the order at worst, and bouncing him down to AAA as an option that should have been explored, too. Both of those options were ridiculed by you up until the day they finally dropped him in the order—something you said would never happen. As we look back on it, sending him to AAA WAS the thing they should have done but didn’t get around to *exploring it* until after the season ended.
But I’m fine with dropping it, there isn’t really anything to argue about until we have some actual 2011 stats to kick around.
- twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 5:09 pm
  
  Dropping him in the order was Bochy’s biggest mistake of the year. That he did it doesn’t make me wrong…and what’s with “as the year progressed” ? You don’t get mulligans on predictions- you called for a iug year, as I did..
twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 5:04 pm

Wonder what the win total would have been with Rowand, Rent, Pablo, Huff, DeRosa, Molina, Bowker, Uribe?
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 5:20 pm

No, it was just a secondary prediction, that’s all. It was NOT a slump. He was fucked in the head and in the body.
I had no problem at all admitting how wrong I was about Torres. His contact rate went back up, btw, to 75% (from 67% the year before). Nice bounce back.
I was dead wrong about Pablo in 2010. What I did, however, was realize that he was totally fucked in the head (and now we know it was a physical thing too) and I said it’s time to cut bait with this guy, at the very least in the LU. And sending him to AAA to sort out all his mental/fat issues would have been a better place for him to do it than on our roster……..
DJLoo said, on February 27, 2011 at 5:25 pm

Duke Snider died.
twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 5:29 pm

Whatever, that’s one that can never be proven. I do posit that some moron got in his head about “plate discipline”. He hit .330 with he same fucking strike zone, he just didn’t attack the ball as he did in 2009..now I’m going to put poker chips in a box for an hour. Adios..
- delmardennis said, on February 27, 2011 at 5:51 pm
  
  Poker chips? White = $1, Red = $5 and Blue = $10
  Just for fun, I’ll take the button, and you’ll be the small blind followed by Chuckles with the big blind. And just for extra added fun, I’ll straddle $10 to get this party started…good luck.
  - delmardennis said, on February 27, 2011 at 6:02 pm
    
    And it just happens you were dealt 2-7 off suit. Wanna bluff?
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 5:35 pm

The Duke Snider thing didn’t move me a bit. I’m more of a “Cey/Garvey/Lopes” guy. Of course when they die, I’ll probably be happy. Maybe a short recollection of the time they played, but that’s about it. I hated those guys……..
- DJLoo said, on February 27, 2011 at 6:02 pm
  
  You’ll be proud to know that I was once ejected (pre-game) from Shea Stadium for a profanity laced tirade directed at Ron Cey. He was a Cub at at the time.
xootsuit said, on February 27, 2011 at 5:47 pm

Well, that’s the thing about Snider. I felt the loss when I read about his death. Koufax is another career dodger who deserves respect. Hard to think of many others, however. 😉
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 5:52 pm

When Lasorda dies, I’ll feel a sense of loss I think. He was such a huge part of stoking the rivalry from the late 70’s onward. He played the part to perfection and there was no more crystal clear image than him bumming out in the dugout after the Morgan bomb. LOVED that. I’ll tip my cap to him…….
DJLoo said, on February 27, 2011 at 5:53 pm

Duke retired as a SF Giant, I believe. Almost as bizarre as Marichal retiring as a Dodger.
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 6:21 pm

While I had heard of him, I had to “baseball-ref” him to get up to speed on his stats. Man, he tore it up for Brooklyn. But what’s up with “The Silver FOx” nickname? That belongs totally and completely to Walter Greenman, forever……
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 6:26 pm

He died earlier this year at age 60. Denny and I are probably the only ones around here who knew who he was. Maybe Loo, but Greenman was pretty much West coast.
from an online obit:
“Greenman, with his shock of white hair and easygoing demeanor, was a well-respected horseman. Nicknamed the Silver Fox, Greenman was a top trainer in northern California before relocating to Southern California. He won five races on one card at Bay Meadows on Nov. 25, 1970, and won training titles at both Bay Meadows and Golden Gate Fields.”
- delmardennis said, on February 27, 2011 at 7:57 pm
  
  Flav, I met Greenman down on the backstretch many moons ago. He had Savinio? in his barn at the time who made an appearance in the BC that year.
  
  Hey, there having a TVG Community Poll for peoples all-time favorite fav horse movie. No joke. Leading with 34% is LET IT RIDE.
  
  “You could be walking around lucky and not even know it.”
twinfan said, on February 27, 2011 at 7:17 pm

Duke was in his prime when I was a lad in Pittsburgh, I only saw him play a few times. Man, there were some great RFers in that era. Duke was one of them.
Flavor said, on February 27, 2011 at 7:32 pm

Good chance a lot of us see some of the guys from the 2010 team pass on. I’ve got a bottle of Johnnie Walker Blue that someone gave me a while ago, uncracked–whiskey isn’t really my thing. I just declared it the 2010 team bottle. Someone passes from that team, I’ll fire down a shot in their honor……..
- xootsuit said, on February 27, 2011 at 9:10 pm
  
  If I see one of the guys from the 2010 team pass on, I’ll be sad enough to drink a bunch of over-priced scratch on the racks. They’ll live until 2050, 60, 70, no sweat.
delmardennis said, on February 27, 2011 at 8:05 pm

Hey, Vickie. You got yourself some very long longs.

“Thank you. They go from my ass all the way to the floor.”
delmardennis said, on February 27, 2011 at 8:07 pm

I got the 5 horse here at LA @ 6/5 singled in my PK 4.

Don’t fuck me Looney.
unca chuck said, on February 27, 2011 at 8:12 pm

Not to jinx anything, but if Tejada has proven anything, it’s that he stays in good enough shape to play through a season. Something neither Rent or Uribe have done in a bunch of seasons.

And, yes, like Bubble boy, that could be the bad news . . .
TedSpe said, on February 27, 2011 at 10:57 pm

He had 9 game winning hits for the Giants so fuck it, despite the shitty BA. With all due respect:
R.I.P. Edward Donald (Duke) Snider
- TedSpe said, on February 27, 2011 at 10:59 pm
  
  uhm…Edwin. Well…he *was* mainly a Dodger
  😉