A Place To Talk About Giants Baseball

April 29th. why is that important? It was the start of the BBOTD famine. the giants were 14-12. April was the only month where they had more runs scored than runs allowed. since then, a disappointing 23-27 where each month the gap between runs allowed and runs scored widens. coincidence?

So after going to see the Hobbit, I decided to re-read the story. My copy was published in 1966 and has been in the family for nearly that long. Apparently, the last time I read it was in 1985. Because there, big as life, was my ticket to game 44 (at the Stick, game 94 overall), Tuesday, July 23, 1985. Section 11, Box 5H, Seat 3, against the hated St. Louis Cardinals.

(from Flavor) Here’s a pic of the ticket. By the way, Chuck has 3 great old school tickets loaded up on his thread right now at ninersforever.com

The lineup:

Giants                                    Cards
Dan Gladden CF            Vince Coleman LF
Manny Trillo 2B            Willie McGee CF
Chili Davis RF               Tom Herr 2B
Jeffrey Leonard LF       Jack Clark 1B
Chris Brown 3B             Andy Van Slyke RF
Bob Brenly C                  Terry Pendleton 3B
Rob Deer 1B                   Darrell Porter C
Jose Uribe SS                 Ivan de Jesus SS
Mike Krukow P             Danny Cox P

The Giants had a 3-2 lead going into the sixth and the wheels came off. Krukow faces three batters in the sixth without getting an out. Mark Davis comes in and faces three batters, 2 walks (one intentional) and a strikeout. Greg Minton gets the final two outs while giving up a hit. 4 runs score and it’s 6-3 Cards, which is how it will finish. Mike Jeffcoat pitches 2 innings, giving up one hit. Vida closes it out with a walk, a hit and two strikeouts. Start Time Weather: Sunny. Time of the game: 2 hrs 44 minutes. Attendance: 7,688 for a 12:05 start. This is a classic example of Chili’s declaration that there are 5000 fans, and the rest are assholes (BTW, I saw a book today “Assholes, A Theory”. I think I’ll have to put that on the nightstand). Jim Davenport was at the end of his managing career before Roger Craig came in and took over. They lost 100 games that season. I was at the 100th loss.

It’s funny how a bookmark can dredge up memories. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN198507230.shtml

and a nice one but just one game. I gave it a fist pump and a quiet YES and got ready to move on. I’m keeping my head down and my ammo dry. taking it one game at a time. i’m going to play within myself today, when i’m not outright playing with myself. Barry Zito, Game one winner. Maybe the Mayans have it right. Win or lose, a resurgent Undertaker would be really good news. Otherwise game 6 becomes a black hole. So, a tip of the cap to the Panda and back to work.

 

911Call-Giants

In the middle of game three, I posted something to the effect that stealing this game would be a huge hit to the reds and that the offense would come to life. Last night, I posted something to the effect that the stars were aligned and that the giants were going to win game 5. I also was ready to predict that we would defeat whomever (I was thinking the Cards) in the NLCS in no more than six games. But when the game began today I was nowhere near so confident. And yet, the stars apparently were aligned. So, do we care who’s next? I, for one, hate me some cardinals. Truly, intensely, hate me some cardinals. Do I want to see them next? Yes and no. I’m kind of stoked to see the nats do well. I would surely hate to lose to the Cards. But to beat them . . . oh, sooo sweet. I love the fact that whoever the giants face will have had to go five, deep into the rotation and hopefully deep into the bullpen. If I were purely a stat geek, I would root for the nats because the giants do so well on the road. Regardless, it’s over, giants win, in six.

And on we flap . . .

Another Flapalooza has come and gone and was quite successful. Great to see Coach Willie D and my man Blade (I have your glasses by the way. We can discuss their ransom over lunch). A treat to meet the incomparable TedSpe. Had a great chat with his honor Snaark. Drank Skype shots with Bozo and waived hello to Pawlie. As always a pleasure to spend time with Big Flavor. We talked about most, if not all, of you and noted how much we would enjoy meeting up someday. Some great discussions about cheating and what should be the repercussions, from records erased to banning from the HOF. All in all, a blast and I hope many of you can make the next one.

Driving home I listened to some of the Marty Lurie show and he posed two excellent questions. The first is: Was this season a success? By the only true definition of success, if the G’s reach my goal of 94 wins then yes; it is a resounding success regardless of any other considerations. So take that! But seriously, I think that this team had an expectation of winning the Division. And in that regard, this season is a success. Getting to the PS is always good but when you should win the division, a wild card berth doesn’t meet, what I’ll call, the other definition of success. As to what happens in the PS, that’s always a crapshoot. We talked about this some but you can’t expect the other team’s fielders to have two balls go under their glove (Snaark, I’m pretty sure that was Conrad Brooks). You can’t expect a potential home run to land on the top of the fence and come back (Ian Kinsler). Cody Ross going deep twice off of Doc? Uribe, huge HR late against the Phils? Renteria? Not to mention the Mark Lemke’s of the world.

And speaking of Mark Lemke, Marty’s other question was: who will be the key pitcher and position player? My first thought of pitcher was Cain. He HAS to win his two starts in the NLDS (assuming he gets a second). The first start for many obvious reasons but one of which is Matt Latos. BF posed this earlier and we discussed it last night but who really wants to see Latos come into ATT for a big game? So if he’s matched up against Cain in the first game (I have no clue what the Reds rotation would be and I’m NOT looking it up now) that’s a HUGE game for the reds. And if it gets to a second start, it will mean that it’s either game 4 or 5 and we absolutely, positively, have to win this one. I gave the bullpen a lot of consideration, although that’s kind of cheating as it’s not one pitcher, but with the fearsome foursome of Lopez, Affeldt, Romo and Casilla, they have to turn every game into a seven-inning game for the other team. If the g’s have the lead after seven, it’s got to be automatic.

For position player my first thought was Crawford, sort of in the Lemke model. Bottom of the order, probably some key rbi opportunities. Turn the lineup over. All extremely important. But thinking about it more, I think it’s Pagan. He’s the straw that stirs the drink right now. His getting on and running around like a lunatic sets the table for Marco, Pando, Buster and Pence (who looks to be hitting his stride!). So Pagan’s my guy.

I forget whether it was nipper or Loo who hated long threads. Sorry ☺. Did I mention the importance of 94 wins?

Not sure who’s turn it is but i thought I would toss this up. Is it hyperbole to suggest that this is a huge start for the vogster? I said earlier that i would like to see him skip a turn, not as punishment but to get him some extra rest. I have no idea who you’d start in such an event. maybe Mota? see if you can get three or more innings. than Bruce can do his usual bull pen dance. With the way he’s using the bullpen, it would mean some extra wear on it as well. It’s amazing to me that there isn’t anyone in the minors that jumps out at you and says, “give that guy a start”.

On another note, I’m actually glad to see the dodgers putting up some sort of a fight. I think the g’s need to stay battle tested and never feel like it’s in the bag.

The A’s are astounding. And what a big win for Snodfart. all in all a good time to be into Bay Area sports. Enjoy your Sunday knuckleheads.

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Flavor Note: Some of you, especially Chrome users, may have tried to get into the Flap earlier today and seen a screen warning you about malware at this site. This is something that started with sbnation and, as far as I can tell with what I’ve read on the internet, was a false-positive finding that set off this alarm all over the place. Coming to the Flap, like anywhere you go on the internet, is a decision you have to make but I feel confident from what I’ve heard from wordpress that this site is safe.

Well, the day off comes at a good time. I said earlier this year that i wanted the team to struggle and have to fight to get into the PS. Be careful what you ask for? And if your a dodger, will you look back on these past series and say that while the giants were losing two of three to the dbacks, you didn’t make up ANY games while playing the padres? This truly may be something that comes into play as the season plays out. Looking ahead at the coming series i am not sanguine. It’s quite possible that we will need Barry the “Stopper” Zito. As my buddy the Landman use to say, “Maybe, Maybe not”. But really, how cool? September baseball, Giants with a small but significant lead over the hated dogs, culminating in a possible showdown in Chez Latrine. They’re rounding the far turn . . .

(please ignore the code below, thanks–Craig)

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It’s been my impression that there is a significant difference when the giants score first. So, I looked into it. When the giants score first, they are 49-16. When the opponent scores first, they (the opponent) are 39-21. The giants have scored 84 runs in the first inning to the opponents 72. When the giants are ahead after 1, they are 33-5 and when they are behind 7-22. The giants are 4-49 when losing after 7. I think it’s pretty obvious that when the white shark (early in the year) and now pagan are hot in the 1 hole, the whole offense works better. maybe that’s the definition of obvious. so, score early, score often.

Not a bad way to go through life. Unless it’s one of the undead . . .

I confess I didn’t watch much of last night’s game after the 3rd inning. So when I saw the final score, I figured the bullpen had collapsed as well. Which, surprisingly, didn’t much bug me. I assumed Penny and Kontos and or Hensley had tossed some gas on the fire. But these aren’t the guys who are going to win us a championship. To win this thing, the big four is going to have to do the heavy lifting. Romo and Casilla from the right and Affeldt and Lopez from the left should be plenty. To be successful, the starters are going to have to go at least 6, so four pitchers after that point should be sufficient. The question becomes then, can we get to the post-season with Penny, Kontos, Hensley and Mijares?

A shout out to the immortal Johnny Pesky. Apparently a great guy who would talk to anyone at length about baseball. There will always be a Pesky’s Pole, which is just one of the coolest honors ever. Forget the plaques, name a foul pole after me!

Is it me or does Melky need a day off? I’m throwing this out because it’s after nine and so I thought i’d start the ball rolling. Give Blanco a start, give Melky a blow. there’s still Posey in the lineup. or do you wait for Pablo’s return (tomorrow?). On the one hand, it’s the Rockies. On the other hand, it’s the Rockies and you do NOT want to lose to them. I’m going to hopefully have a slow day but i’m afraid the lawn and garden await. Enjoy your Sunday Flappers.

Filling in for BF. So it’s off to the Gateway city. With the sweep, i’m back on track for a fifteen win month. I had them going 1-3 here in St Lou. But with Cain, Bum and Vogey getting starts, not to mention the irrepressible BZ, 2-2 and even 3-1 is not unthinkable. Obviously the hitters need to stay hot and the relief pitchers need to stiffen up some. With the RP though, it seems like someone is able to come up with the big inning when they need it. there’s a lot of talent out there. Cain needs to get it started tonight.

ou, comme on dit en anglaise, welcome to the dog days. When I was growing up it always seemed to be June that was the death knell. The dreaded “June Swoon”. But for the last few years it seems like August presents the most problems. In 2009 they had a good August, 16-12, their second best month other than June (17-10). They had a 17 game stretch without a day off where they went 10-7. In 2010, they were only 13-15, their worst month of the year. Their longest stretch without a day off was 13, where they went 6-7. July (20-8) and September (18-8) were two of their best months and obviously lead to a satisfactory conclusion to the year. In 2011, they went 11-18, also their worst month. They were 17 games over .500 on 7/28 and had a 4.5 game lead on 7/20. By 8/9, that was all gone. July (15-11) and Sept (14-11) were good months (though June was the best at 17-11 and May not far behind at 16-12). But August killed them. Their long stretch came from 7/26-8/10, 16 games where they went 5-11 (3-7 in August). After that they had a 10 game stretch (4-6) and a 9 game stretch (4-5). All in all, some August’s to forget.

So what does this year look like? They play 29 games. 2 days off with a 15 game stretch that they are at the start of. They play 12 at home and 17 on the road. The hot, Midwest games are this weekend and next week at CO and STL. They also go to Houston (indoors?) and Chicago at the end of the month. My take is that they go: Mets (1-1 including last night, come on BZ!), @Col (2-1), @STL (1-3), COL (2-1), WSN (1-2), off, @SDP (2-1), @LAD (1-2), ATL (2-2), off, @HOU (2-1), and @CHC (1-1). So I think that’s fairly conservative 15-14 month.

I think the Dogs may go 16-12 (AZ, off, CHC, COL, off, @MIA, @PIT, @ATL, SFG, off, MIA, @COL, @ARZ) so we should still end up with a lead. Their longest stretch is 13 games, ending with the series with the Giants.

The DBacks have a brutal schedule. 14 at home, 16 away, with ONE day off from now until Sept 5 or so, including 1 doubleheader (at home vs. MIA). They play @PHI (3), @PIT (4), WSN (2), off, @STL (3), @HOU (3), MIA (5 w/DH), SDP (3), CIN (3), @LAD (4, 2 in Aug), @SFG (3, 0 in Aug). Couple this with last season’s post-season fatigue (remember the G’s in 2011), I think they fade.

So, the dog days begin. I have them with 15 wins and a 1 game lead at the end of it.

Here we go, Ace vs. Ace (Spy vs. Spy anyone?).  These two are surprisingly well matched.  Hamels and Cain were both drafted out of high school in 2002.  Hamels, out of San Diego, was the number 17 overall pick and Cain, out of Germantown TN, was the 25^th pick.  Cain was the first to pitch in the Majors when he started a game against Colorado on August 29^th of 2005.   He went 5 innings.  Struck out 2 and walked 4.  Lost 2-1 on a solo HR by  Matt Holiday in the second and when, in the 4^th, Todd Helton scores after a walk, 2 base hits, and a double play.  This would later be known as being “Cained”.  Hamels debuted on May 12^th of 2006.  He also went 5 innings, striking out 7 and walking 5, giving up no runs.  Since then, Hamels has an ERA of 3.36 to Cain’s 3.28.    Their career stats stand at (Hamels/Cain):

GAMES     CG          IP                           HR        BB        SO                WHIP

199/222     10/15   1287/1444    155/120  322/498  1216/1209   1.136/1.175

Their 2012 Stats are:

GS               ERA            IP              HR        BB       SO        WHIP

18/18  3.07/2.56   126/126.2  14/12   30/25  125/124  1.087/.955

If we look at Hamels at home vs. Cain on the road we see:

ERA                                                      IP       HR   BB       SO     WHIP

2.76/3.28 (9 games each)  64/57.2  6/7  17/17  69/55  1.097/1.197

And yet Hamels is 5-3 at home!!

So, what to look for in today’s game:  In Wins:

SO/9        SO/BB           HR    WHIP

8.6/9.9    4.28/5.5      7/3  1.000 .929

In loses:

SO/9           SO/BB             HR       WHIP

10.1/7.7     4.67/4.50     4/5    1.360/1.238

A very intriguing stat is that in day games, Hamels is 5-4 (6-0 at night!!) while Cain is 6-0 during the day (4-3 at night).

A look at the umpiring crew reveals no news as apparently this crew has not officiated either of the two teams.

When I started looking at this game, it was from the perspective that this is a game where the bats go cold and the giants lose.  Their Ace defeats our Ace.  But Hamels’ day game stats (5-3) give a sliver of hope.  Truly difficult to believe that Hamels gave up 7 HR’s in games that he’s won.  Thankfully we have Brandon Crawford.  Interesting to note that Matt has more walks when he wins than when he loses.  Obviously he needs to keep it in the park though (Cole seems to give up more homers in wins, go figure).  It’s easy to predict a low scoring affair, after all it IS Cain on the mound.  But if it is, it’s also possible to predict that Matty, probably not getting the W, prevails in the end.

Now, does someone else want to go after Ted?

Obviously not a great east coast swing.  The panic button looks awfully tempting right now.  So let’s just give it a push:  Ahhwooogaahh, aahhwooggahhh.

Right-handed bat!  But who?  And really more importantly, whom does that bat replace?  It’s all fine and good to talk about more of this or that but the reality is:  who’s better, that’s available, than we already have?  In the outfield, I think Pagan is the most suspect, but that takes in both offense and defense.  That said, I think he’s actually quite serviceable.  Certainly not great but again, who are you going to get?  Blanco has been struggling but he sure looks good for them in the leadoff spot when he’s going well.  Crawford?  Not all that many shortstops with power and average on the old trading block.  Timmy Jim?  I think it’s far more likely that he fixes what ails him than someone comes up from the minors and takes them to the promised land.  Not saying he will fix it, just that for them to get to the playoffs it will more likely be because he found a way to get it done, not because we picked someone up at the trade deadline or brought someone up from the minors.  For better or worse, I really think that this is what we’re going to work with.  They might pick up a reliever.  They might pick up a bat.  But who is going to have to sit down is going to be the interesting question.  I think that there are times when it’s useful to say:  “you are it.  Quit looking for someone else.  You have the talent, you need to find the inspiration and get it done.”

For my sermon today, I shall consult the Book of Armaments, Chapter 2, Verses nine to twenty one:

And St. Attila raised his Hand Grenade up on high saying, “O Lord, Bless this thy Holy Hand Grenade that with it thou mayest blow the Dodgers to tiny bits, in thy mercy.”

Wait, wrong sermon.  Let’s try the Book of Numbers.

As we approach the “half way” mark, the only numbers that count at this point are:  42-33, 1game out of first.   Other numbers can be used for illustrative purposes but those two (three?) are the only ones that really matter.  Numbers like:  5^th in the NL in hitting, 11^th in OPS, 4^th in ERA (3^rd amongst starters, 5^th amongst bullpen), last (or first depending on how you look at it, either way, bad) in errors, 12^th in double plays etc. can be used to parse the 42-33 but are in a way irrelevant to the ones that matter.  They are right where they need to be in the two that count:  42-33, 1 game out.  The thing I love best about THIS team is that they haven’t hit their stride yet.  Pablo out, Posey needing off days, batting order in flux (until now), starters struggling who shouldn’t, relievers coughing up hairballs on occasion etc.  This is exactly what I want.  I want to see struggle, harsh lessons learned, and failure.  But I want to see that early.  I want to see them grow, mesh and begin to dominate as the season progresses.  THIS team needs to find it’s own mojo, it’s own credo, it’s own thong.  The parts are all there.  Like every team, they are a couple of key injuries away from crashing and burning.  But from where I sit (type?), I wouldn’t want to be anybody else.

So, to recap: “First shalt thou take out the Holy Thong, then shalt thou count to three, no more, no less.”

I leave the rest as an exercise for the reader.